Colleges here map new recruitment strategies

Predicted decline in U.S. high school graduations means stiffer competition ahead for some college admissions offices.

Lancaster New Era, Published: May 08, 2008, 11:52 EST

Lancaster

By JACK BRUBAKER, Staff

As colleges prepare for 2008 graduations and put finishing touches on the paperwork of incoming freshmen, they look ahead to very different classes.

Demographic experts project that fewer students will graduate from the nation's high schools beginning next spring and continuing for six years.

A smaller sea of high school graduates means a smaller pool of students seeking admission to college.

And that means more competition for incoming students among colleges here and elsewhere.

"With fewer Pennsylvania students, they will have more options available to them," observes Paul Cramer, vice president for enrollment at Elizabethtown College. "But if Elizabethtown has prepared itself, we will be able to maintain our quality."

High school enrollment and graduation figures have been increasing nationally for about 15 years. Education experts predict that bubble will deflate slowly for several years and then begin to reinflate.

The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education estimated recently that the decline in the number of graduates nationwide between 2007-08 and 2013-14 will be slight — less than one-half of 1 percent.

The number of high school graduates in the West and South actually will increase during the period, while the number elsewhere will plummet.

Graduates in the Northeast are expected to decline in number by 9 percent between now and 2013-14. Pennsylvania graduates will decline by 9.3 percent.

WICHE did not estimate graduation rates for individual counties. The Pennsylvania Department of Education projects a small decline in high school enrollment in Lancaster County schools over the next several years.

Meanwhile, the diversity of students in these smaller graduating classes will increase.

White graduates nationally are predicted to decline by 10 percent, accompanied by a double-digit increase in minority graduates, largely Hispanics and Asians.

How are local colleges responding to challenges posed by these changes?

Most Millersville University students come from eastern Pennsylvania, where graduation rates will not drop as radically as in western Pennsylvania, says Doug Zander, MU's director of admissions.

He doesn't anticipate a decline in the number of students applying to MU.

"The big difference is the colleges that will see those kinds of (high-school graduate) declines in their areas will be recruiting in our area," Zander notes. "There will be a huge increase in competition."

Minority students now make up 12 percent of MU's student body. Zander expects that percentage to increase, with Hispanic students leading the way.

"Diversity is something we really embrace," he says. "We've heard about this coming, and we're finally beginning to see it. It's exciting for all students to have a more diverse campus."

Elizabethtown College draws most of its students from the mid-Atlantic region. Cramer, the college executive who monitors enrollment trends, is thankful the college can cast a wide net.

Pennsylvania will graduate fewer high school students, but Delaware and Virginia will graduate more.

"We hope to pick up students from neighboring states," Cramer says. "But Elizabethtown isn't the only place planning to do that, so the competition will be keen."

Elizabethtown's current minority enrollment is 8 percent.

"We will have to be more diverse five years from now," Cramer says. "This is partially a recruiting issue in admissions, but also something student life and faculty must be aware of."

Sara Harberson, Franklin & Marshall College's new vice president for enrollment management and dean of admission, is excited by the possibilities that changing demographics suggest for a school whose students come from all across the country.

She says a smaller pool of applicants will have less competition and, therefore, less pressure during the application process.

"With competition to get into selective institutions, students have applied to many more colleges and universities," she explains. "Now it may be less about competition and more about self-discovery for students."

Harberson says 12 percent of its U.S. students are minorities. International students make up 8 percent of the student body.

The college welcomes minority applicants, she says, and may change some of its recruiting procedures to make sure it reaches them.

"A lot of people in admissions are concerned about how the demographics are changing and see this as a negative thing," Harberson notes. "I see the tremendous potential for students and the college.

"It's not about how many applicants are in the pool. It's about the quality of those students."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=810907&forum_id=1#9755291)