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Wasn't there supposed to be a massive commercial R.E. crash 1-2 yrs ago?
| coiffed sandwich | 11/11/25 |
| WWED: What Would Emilio Do? | 11/11/25 |
| coiffed sandwich | 11/11/25 |
| the dog that hasn't barked | 11/11/25 |
| Darnell | 11/11/25 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 11th, 2025 1:33 PM Author: coiffed sandwich I recall reading panicked articles from WSJ about how commercial real estate loans were coming due to be refinanced, yet rates were so high that the properties were going to be sold for firesale prices after the owners couldn't refinance, and this was going to set off a cascade of consequences in the lending industry which could hit residential. there were a handful of properties that did sell for pennies but nothing like what I recall reading was 'supposed' to happen. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5796284&forum_id=2],#49420658) |
Date: November 11th, 2025 1:34 PM Author: WWED: What Would Emilio Do? (gunneratttt) i think are reptile retired because he constant bleating about an RE crash never came true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5796284&forum_id=2],#49420663) |
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Date: November 11th, 2025 1:37 PM Author: coiffed sandwich here are some:
The Bill Is Coming Due on a Record Amount of Commercial Real Estate Debt More than $2.2 trillion in debt is maturing before 2028, and much of that will have to be refinanced at higher rates
The Rate Cut Won’t Save These Real-Estate Owners Many commercial-property owners borrowed too much when rates were super cheap and are struggling to hold on to assets they need to refinance
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/the-rate-cut-wont-save-these-real-estate-owners-062d7d2f?
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Date: November 11th, 2025 1:38 PM Author: the dog that hasn't barked My office landlord clients all tell me the same thing. They’re not having trouble filling space at market rental rates, but tenants are demanding huge TI allowances now post-Covid. For years a standard TI allowance was $20-$50/sf, now it’s well over $100/sf, and closer to $180/sf for certain submarkets like medical office. Tenants are basically saying since WFH is now an option for us, if we’re gonna rent your office space we want it to be awesome. And landlords are happy to pay it since most that money just goes back into the value of the property anyway. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5796284&forum_id=2],#49420673) |
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Date: November 11th, 2025 1:44 PM Author: Darnell there have been instances of properties selling at a fraction of their peak values. but it hasn't been widespread because commercial landlords are kicking the can down the road playing financing games.
if demand for commercial property stays down long enough, the landlords won't be able to kick the can further and we'll see lots of fire sales. |