My view is that there is too much rather than too little attention paid to state-by-state polls at this stage of the general election race. The numbers can be volatile - and changes in the fundamental factors like the economy are almost certain to shake up the race from its present state.

Still, sometimes there are states where the balance of the evidence seems to speak for or against the incumbent candidate. So far, the evidence seems to point to a potentially tough time for Barack Obama in Nevada.

Start with Mr. Obama's approval rating in the state. It was 41 percent in 2011, according to polling conducted by Gallup throughout the year. Mr. Obama's approval rating is now a few points higher throughout the country than it was for most of last year. But even if you look at his ratings in Nevada relative to the national numbers, they don't look so good for him. Mr. Obama's Gallup approval rating averaged about 44 percent in Gallup polling throughout 2011, so Nevada lagged 3 points behind the national trend. This stands in contrast to 2008, when Mr. Obama received 55 percent of the vote in Nevada - 2 points better than he did nationally.

Why is Mr. Obama polling poorly in the Silver State? One obvious reason may be because of the housing crisis - by various estimates, somewhere between 50 and 70 percent of Nevada mortgages are still underwater. Meanwhile, Nevada's unemployment rate was 13 percent as of November 2011, considerably above the national average.

In addition, states in the interior West sometimes exhibit an anti-incumbent tendency, being more inclined to change horses than states in parts of the country like the Midwest. Bill Clinton, for instance, won both Colorado and Montana in 1992, when he was challenging George H.W. Bush. But he lost both states as the incumbent in 1996, even though he did slightly better nationwide.

On top of that, the demographics of Nevada aren't bad for Mr. Obama's most likely Republican opponent, Mitt Romney. Higher turnout among Mormon voters could help Mr. Romney a bit. And although the state has a high unemployment rate, it isn't necessarily low income - the median household income was $51,525 there in 2010, above the national average of $49,445. So even if there is a "class warfare" scenario in 2012 - and Mr. Obama gains ground among working-class voters while losing ground among higher-income voters - this is not one of those states where it would help him.

But one caution: polls in Nevada have underestimated Democratic performance of late. In 2008, most polls had Mr. Obama winning Nevada by 6 or 7 points -- less than his actual margin of victory, which was 12.5 points. And in 2010, most polls had the Republican Sharron Angle winning the Senate race, but Harry Reid was re-elected instead.

Still, it's not just Mr. Obama's approval ratings that look poor in Nevada - his fundamentals aren't strong there, either.

- Nate Silver

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/04/nevada-caucus-updates/#more-25415

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1865182&forum_id=2#19895631)

Gave Romney a 90% chance at winning South Carolina 2 days before election

Gave gingrich a 90% chance at winning Florida 6 days before election

Why anyone would quote his predictions 9 months before an election is beyond me

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1865182&forum_id=2#19895665)

Author: Hizzla's Feminist Thought Professor

This doesn't bode well for Romney in November.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1865182&forum_id=2#19895613)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1865182&forum_id=2#19895667)

Author: Hizzla's Feminist Thought Professor

Why anyone would quote [someone's] predictions 9 months before an election is beyond me

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1865182&forum_id=2#19895665)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1865182&forum_id=2#19895792)

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-02-04/republican-nevada-caucus/52957864/1

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1865182&forum_id=2#19897263)