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How far will the stock market pull back this SUMMER?
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:09 PM Author: topaz splenetic sandwich I think SP will go down to 1250.
Fuck my life. I bought AAPL at like 585, 8k in.
Fucking lost a shitload in my IRA in emerging markets. 3k down in last month or so just.
Other shit I am just sold off and waiting patiently to get back in. Fuck my life. |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:13 PM Author: ruddy flickering chapel milk I sold everything April 2nd. Waiting to get back in. No idea when though. Market is nuts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20707863) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:16 PM Author: bisexual beady-eyed new version 1250 isn't too bad, bro. you can ride that out if you don't want to try to time it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20707890) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:18 PM Author: gay crackhouse Haven't they done studies that show that market timers lose out to buy-and-holds over the long run? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20707907) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:21 PM Author: ruddy flickering chapel milk Article of faith among Boggle-heads but I dunno. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20707945) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:22 PM Author: bisexual beady-eyed new version it's certainly possible, but buy and hold (except, perhaps, in an index fund--not individual stocks) is also pretty sps (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20707949) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:34 PM Author: gay crackhouse I think buy-and-hold always goes hand-in-hand with index funds (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20708057) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:41 PM Author: talking gaped dysfunction candlestick maker Here's a study. Go look at what selling in May and buying in September would do for you if did it every year for the past 10 or 20, vs buy and hold. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20708118) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:54 PM Author: ruddy flickering chapel milk Link? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20708253) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:56 PM Author: Nubile Arrogant Haunted Graveyard (king dumb faggot of xo investing) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20708273) |
Date: May 16th, 2012 11:22 PM Author: orange center keepsake machete just have a 50-year time horizon, bro. quit trying to ride the waves, and instead just rise with the tide. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20707957) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:25 PM Author: topaz splenetic sandwich honestly, i have no faith that in 50 years the market will be all that much higher.. i think it could just average 3% gains and in between u will have MASSIVE ups and MASSIVE downs.. it is just a binge
im so fuckin dumbf or buying AAPL.. i SOLD everything over 100k in risky shit and took profits in march... but i bought AAPL one day.. just woke up at bought it at 629 for some reason adn have been buying it down ever since FML
and then the emerging market shit i just figured id hold cause whatever.. its in my IRA.. but i have 20k and its down a SHITLOAD.. emerging market ETFS have sucked for a while.. shit |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:34 PM Author: gay crackhouse Given your track record, honestly I have no faith in your thoughts on this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20708047) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:37 PM Author: topaz splenetic sandwich Bro, I've made at least 100k in the market last 3 years or so (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20708077) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:23 PM Author: Comical trailer park coffee pot Just be a buy and hold investor, bro.
Who cares what the market will do in the next few months when you'll have 8+% annualized returns over a 30 year period? |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:26 PM Author: topaz splenetic sandwich LOL bro, just LOL at an 8% annual return in the next 30 years. It is NOT 1970. This is a different economy, different market, different politics, different country. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20707978) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:31 PM Author: Comical trailer park coffee pot LOL just LOL @ that investment prole logic. 8% is probably a rather conservative return.
But yeah, today is TOTALLY different...
Back in 1979 there was a huge article on businessweek titled "The Death of Equities" and stocks had basically stayed flat for over a decade. Subsequent decades (80s and 90s) experienced double digit annualized gains.
Here we are today, stocks have been flat for over a decade, people are saying "bubububu this time is different, stocks are done for", yet the delta between the earnings yield relative to the treasury yield is some of the highest it's ever been since the 1950s, which also experience another bull market in the following 15 years.
The markets ALWAYS climb a wall of worry. There's ALWAYS something bad happening or hanging over the market's head.
Who gives a shit, stocks are the best investment for the long haul and if you're globally diversified you will have great returns over most people's investment horizon.
This is probably the best fucking time to invest since the late 1970s. If you're in your twenties and not loading your portfolio with stocks and holding onto them for 30+ years you're a dumb faggot that shouldn't be in the market to begin with. |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:38 PM Author: topaz splenetic sandwich America is a binge drinker now. It is not the 70's. Things were much more restricted then. Now you have hedge funds, high velocity traders and all sorts of shit going on behind the scenes.
Look at what happened since like 1995. Two massive bubbles, two massive declines. It is just UP and DOWN. The S&P hasn't been able to break around 1,550 in 20 years. I will be surprised if it does net 10 years either. |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:43 PM Author: Comical trailer park coffee pot It has ALWAYS BEEN UP AND DOWN.
STOCKS ARE VOLATILE AND THEY HAVE ALWAYS BEEN VOLATILE. It's not uncommon for stocks to lose 50% of their value in any given year, or double their returns over a span of a few years for that matter. Nothing whatsoever has changed about the risk characteristics of stocks. In the short term, they are risky. But I don't give a shit about tomorrow, I give a shit about 30 years from now. And barring some catastrophic event, billions of chinese and indians entering the middle class and embracing some form of consumerism will be good for the global economy, good for business, and good for my investment returns.
Hedge Funds and high velocity trading are just newfangled market participants. It doesn't matter at all. |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:48 PM Author: topaz splenetic sandwich no bro, before the 90's the type of wild swings we had never were scene
just go on google finance and look at the last 50 years on the SP and its insane.. it went SKYROCKETING from like 80's onwards |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:49 PM Author: Comical trailer park coffee pot LOL. Now you're just fucking trolling.
Ever heard of 1987? |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:54 PM Author: topaz splenetic sandwich bro im saying that before the 80's it was not this crazy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20708257) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:58 PM Author: Nubile Arrogant Haunted Graveyard or the 60s or the 30s or the 20s or the 1890s etc |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:52 PM Author: Doobsian offensive school gaming laptop http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dj-infl.htm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20708238) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:27 PM Author: talking gaped dysfunction candlestick maker And cumulative returns of 0% over the last 20. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20707989) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:38 PM Author: topaz splenetic sandwich exactly.. invest "pros" want you to invest cause they make money off trading fees. ppl are stupid and buy into this shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20708090) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:40 PM Author: talking gaped dysfunction candlestick maker and they need 401k and pension inflows when the market is high so someone will buy what they are selling (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20708106) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:42 PM Author: topaz splenetic sandwich it is all rigged.. its not a real market
its just pure BS really |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:45 PM Author: Comical trailer park coffee pot Not there yet. Cumulative returns including dividends has been roughly matching inflation at the peak during the tech boom.
Regardless, if cumulative returns are 0% over the twenty year time period, valuations for stocks will be a scorching value.
Now is the time to load up. If you don't, you're a fool and are falling victim to boomer market timing. Don't be an idiot fucking boomer that doesn't know how to win at the stock market game. |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:49 PM Author: topaz splenetic sandwich LOL bro, time to load up was fucking in 2009.. the SP when it was at 1422 just a few weeks ago was only 125 points off its ALL time fucking high man.. that is not fucking good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20708202) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:52 PM Author: Comical trailer park coffee pot OH MY GOD, THE MARKET HIT AN ALL TIME HIGH ON NOV 21, 1980 (price: 139). TIME TO SELL!
Fast forward 30 years later, price is 10x that.
LOL, just LOL @ your market timing, knee-jerk, short minded investment advice |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:53 PM Author: Doobsian offensive school gaming laptop http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dj-infl.htm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20708246) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:55 PM Author: Comical trailer park coffee pot LET'S IGNORE DIVIDENDS (which used to make up 50% of total market returns for most of the past century) TO MAKE A POINT THAT THE MARKET...STILL GOES UP EVEN WITH THEIR EXCLUSION.
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:55 PM Author: topaz splenetic sandwich im saying that there is something fundamentally wrong with our economic system.. we are a binge system right now, before were more stable and didnt take as much stupid shit risks and ppl were mindless consumers as much who didnt know how to save money (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20708264) |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:57 PM Author: Comical trailer park coffee pot No, we are actually more stable than we were in the 1970s with skyrocketing double digit inflation.
You really are a financial idiot. |
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Date: May 16th, 2012 11:59 PM Author: topaz splenetic sandwich (uses few years in 1970's and ignores every decade before that then calls names) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#20708298) |
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Date: May 17th, 2012 12:00 AM Author: Comical trailer park coffee pot 1930s
1940s
OMG THOSE WERE SUCH STABLE DECADES |
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Date: May 17th, 2012 12:00 AM Author: Nubile Arrogant Haunted Graveyard do you seem to remember a rather large complete implosion of the economy which occurred in the late 20s and lasted until WWII?
in the 1800s markets were wild as fuck as well
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Date: February 1st, 2024 10:11 PM Author: White Senate Yarmulke lollercausting HARD ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1950391&forum_id=2#47356729) |