The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
Where is the IRAN war headed at this point?
Poast new message in this thread
Date: May 9th, 2026 6:53 PM Author: Brindle spot It seems like escalation is impossible, as any attempt to escalate will just cause Iran to destroy more of the middle east -- including desalination plants. Iran isn't going to give up nuclear materials. So at this point, what exactly is Trump et al. going to do? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877270) |
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:05 PM Author: big kitchen you mean the special military operation? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877292) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:13 PM Author: wine dead space gaping Sex with men for money (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877302) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:21 PM Author: galvanic translucent locale Blockade right up until the last minute for midterms (August?), followed by drummed up bullshit that results in some massive attack that sets the country on fire. Gas prices drop in the fall. 2 things: the blockade will continue as long as the US consumers can stomach it, and the Trump will have to fuck up Iran because that's what Americans want. The last part is sad and unnecessary but its the only politically viable option.
I hope people understand that Iran has been allowed to act tough because the US doesn't want to disrupt oil infrastructure. The US military could level the country in 6 hours. The IRCG could continue to fight but it would be for nothing at that point. The US has actually let empty tankers through the blockade to prevent Iranian wells from getting total fucked. Each empty tanker is like 3% of Irans storage capacity.
Also while I'm here, Iran is poor as fuck. Their GDP per cap is half of Saudi arabia. The Iranian regime has been the worst thing for the Iranian people. It's a totally artificial hindrance. |
 |
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:47 PM Author: Clear spectacular trailer park I'll chime in here that the US is also making out like a bandit by supplying the world with Oil. The real losers here are EUROPE and CHINA, because they lack the capacity to OPEN UP DAT HORMUSSY and choose to do nothing about it. $5/gal might be the market clearing price in the US, but eurocucks are paying double and lots of Chinese refineries are going to be assfucked because running out of oil and shutting down is an absolute DISASTER for them. Just imagine you have a pipe full transporting super glue, it's fine as long as the glue keeps moving but once its allowed to sit still it will harden and ruin the pipe. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877365) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:49 PM Author: flesh hairraiser gas station doctorate Supposedly France and the UK are sending ships now (now that the US has made it safe to do so) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877372) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:51 PM Author: galvanic translucent locale Energy is important because AI is energy = computation. But the US is now the only supplier of the helium needed to manufacturer high end chips. China is pretty far behind in the AI game.
Lots of countries that entertained belt and road efforts now realize China doesn't have the ingredients needed for the future. GDP as a percentage of US peaked in 2022 and it's not ever getting that close again. |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:56 PM Author: fragrant selfie Why are fuel prices so high in America? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877389) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:04 PM Author: galvanic translucent locale He never said anything to make this question relevant. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877410) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:21 PM Author: Clear spectacular trailer park Because refinery owners in CHYNA and to a lesser extent the rest of asia will pay ANYTHING for a barrel of crude right now in order to avoid shutting down. US producers know this situation is temporary so are being cautious about firing up more production. We know there are plenty of plays profitable only above $80/barrel out there sitting idle, but it costs to reopen and then shut them down again and producers don't think it makes sense yet. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877419) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:25 PM Author: fragrant selfie So it doesn't matter whether the oil comes from America. Iran still wins (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877423) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:33 PM Author: Clear spectacular trailer park Iran can't export, and they can't meaningfully hurt America. How are they winning? Europe and China are losing here. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877427) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:34 PM Author: fragrant selfie Now you're trying to change the subject🤣 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877429) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:37 PM Author: Opaque Vigorous Friendly Grandma ur a kike. hth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877437) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:43 PM Author: Clear spectacular trailer park I'm a well documented Irish-Italian papist who should probably have been deported just for being an Ellis Islander descendant. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877445) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:41 PM Author: flesh hairraiser gas station doctorate XO posters are desperate to believe Iran is winning for some reason, even now - it's ridiculous (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877441) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:42 PM Author: Clear spectacular trailer park Sadly it's the entire brown underclass who believes this. Hart-Cellar was an unmitigated disaster and probably the end of the US in retrospect. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877443) |
|
Date: May 10th, 2026 4:50 AM Author: Spruce institution halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49878194) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:44 PM Author: Opaque Vigorous Friendly Grandma or some people believe in facts and the real world (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877446) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 11:46 PM Author: galvanic translucent locale There is no winning for Iran because they aren't the game. That makes the shits rooting for them two levels of stupid away from what's really being played. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877836) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:37 PM Author: flesh hairraiser gas station doctorate I know posters think Iran is some sort of based paradise that's winning and pwning the US but Iran is a joke at this point. They've been treated with kid gloves and are still totally screwed. They have no real military capability left. They made all these grandiose statements they haven't backed up and have been embarrassed multiple times. They will have to make some sort of deal and they'll be stuck with being a pariah state in a worse position than North Korea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877334) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 11:49 PM Author: galvanic translucent locale The despite having very similar resources and population in the 70s Iran has massively underperformed compared to their Arab neighbors. It's really tragic. So much wealth and treasure wasted on pointless endeavors while the people live in poverty. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877841) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:38 PM Author: fragrant selfie Iran just escalated by seizing undersea Internet cables. lol@ OP (it's a pumo of course) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877336) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:41 PM Author: galvanic translucent locale Didn't he poast supporting what you just said? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877341) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:42 PM Author: fragrant selfie Nope (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877343) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:43 PM Author: galvanic translucent locale Rc score? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877348) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:44 PM Author: fragrant selfie 100% correct (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877350) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:46 PM Author: galvanic translucent locale Lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877362) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:48 PM Author: fragrant selfie How was Fordham? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877366) |
|
Date: May 10th, 2026 1:03 AM Author: galvanic translucent locale COLUMBIA LAW (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877978) |
|
Date: May 10th, 2026 1:06 AM Author: fragrant selfie Didn't you used to claim you went there? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877989) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:48 PM Author: Brindle spot OP here--yes this was the point of my OP. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877368) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:50 PM Author: fragrant selfie Thanks for confirming that I'm right about Iran seizing undersea cables (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877373) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:52 PM Author: galvanic translucent locale Iran destroying desalinization plants is in the same thread as them destroying Internet cables. Jfc (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877377) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:52 PM Author: fragrant selfie Gotcha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877378) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:53 PM Author: galvanic translucent locale You're welcome (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877385) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:45 PM Author: avocado flirting pervert greater israel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877361) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 7:52 PM Author: pearl degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877379) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:17 PM Author: Opaque Vigorous Friendly Grandma Iran gaining financial control of the Strait, worth tens of billions annually. UAE/Saudi split growing even more. US traded $100b in war costs plus losing Saudi, Qatar, Kawait as allies plus giving Iran tens of billions of dollars annually in free money in exchange for destroying Iran's current military. |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:38 PM Author: fragrant selfie 🚨🇮🇷 Iran is moving to take control of 7 undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz...
The details are remarkable.
Under the new policy being considered, foreign operators would be required to obtain permits to use these cables, pay fees, follow Iranian law, and all management and maintenance would be handled by Iranian companies.
The IRGC has previously warned it could physically target these same cables.
This is the same Hormuz playbook applied to digital infrastructure.
Iran already passed parliamentary legislation establishing toll collection on shipping.
Now Tehran is preparing to apply identical leverage to the data cables that carry traffic between Europe, Asia, and the Gulf.
The strait isn't just a chokepoint for oil anymore.
Iran is positioning it as a chokepoint for global communications.
The strategic implications are MASSIVE.
These cables carry an enormous share of data traffic between Asian economies and European markets.
Banking transactions. Stock trading. Cloud services. Government communications.
The same infrastructure that powers global commerce runs through waters Iran is now claiming jurisdiction over.
For Tehran, this is the next iteration of the leverage strategy that has worked all war.
Block oil shipping until you get sanctions relief.
Now propose to control data flows until you get more concessions.
Each new chokepoint Iran formalizes creates additional pressure that the U.S. has to address in any final deal.
The IRGC's warning that it could target the cables physically is the velvet glove on the iron fist.
Pay the fees, follow Iranian law, accept Iranian management, or risk the entire global communications architecture between Europe and Asia going dark.
That's the kind of asymmetric threat that doesn't require nuclear weapons or even particularly sophisticated military capability.
https://x.com/i/status/2053254237836972235
|
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:45 PM Author: Clear spectacular trailer park Please God let them cut India off from the developed world's Internet forever I'm begging you! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877448) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:48 PM Author: fragrant selfie Take your meds (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877451) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:50 PM Author: Opaque Vigorous Friendly Grandma you are talking to a jew... hope you know that (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877454) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:52 PM Author: Clear spectacular trailer park You fuck men for sport, idk why you think I'm a heeb but you need to get right with Jesus before you lose the opportunity. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877456) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 9:10 PM Author: learning disabled chrome internal respiration the leadership of both sides alternately taking massive long & short positions into the weekend before announcing peace negotiations or new attacks on monday, every week, forever (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877466) |
|
Date: May 10th, 2026 8:37 AM Author: galvanic translucent locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49878246) |
|
Date: May 10th, 2026 11:51 AM Author: glittery french chef Peace through insider trading. #TrumpEffect (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49878468) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 11:18 PM Author: aromatic mexican sex offender Israel really wants to see the nuclear program gone and Trump can't refuse them because blackmail held by Israel is the reason why we are in this war in the first place. I think there might be another special operations raid on the nuclear enrichment site. This time likely larger than the last. 500 rather 100 troops. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49877784) |
|
Date: May 10th, 2026 8:13 AM Author: glittery french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2thread_id=599411#49878228) |
|
Date: May 9th, 2026 11:42 PM Author: fragrant selfie Update from Polymarket. I guess they think this is significant
https://x.com/i/status/2053297239250878565 |