This shit better not fuck our economy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079324)

BTC is pretty close to useless.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080772)

Says the clueless OP who knows nothing about crypto.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079336)

the number of car manufacturers became smaller for reasons that have nothing to do with the eminent demise of ecoins

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079816)

If its a coin on Coinbase, it will hold value simply because Coinbase is the platform that's putting the coin out there for most people.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079505)

Yeah, weird how the value is actually in the platform more than the coin in an odd way. its the platforms and the way they are set up that will dictate what coins succeed and what coins don't.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079541)

it's the platforms and the way they are set up that will dictate which platforms are further developed for use in systems with real value.

the coins themselves are shit. that won't change until they are backed by something of value

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079840)

lol, go back to lawyering.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079624)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079594)

if the technology is used to create usa backed ecoins or uae backed ecoins, then we might have something

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079856)

I don't doubt that some of the technology is useful to a degree. What I doubt that the "coins" have value

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079568)

ADA for example has presented its product and blockchain innovations at multiple conferences, has had it peer reviewed by scientists and technologists who agree on the worthiness of its capabilities, it has plans to be able to integrate with quantum computing when that arrives sooner than people think, it has a democratized voting structure along with decentralized currency to be more flexible in dealing with forks, etc. All this is explained in detail.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079612)

I'll be laughing all the way to the bank.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079681)

Because crypto has literally no serious integration in financial markets, even if it enirely disappeared tomorrow, I doubt it'd have a measurably effect on the economy.

With that said, it's unclear if any large institutions are actually putting this crap on their books. If they are, and they help fuel/cause an epic crash, then feds should fuck them in the ass.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079598)

Over the course of the next 50 or so years (roughly my expected lifespan), I'd considered that a pretty tiny, but non zero risk.

I'm not sure that most people have enough of their net worth tied up in USD cash reserves to need to actively spend that much effort really managing that risk.

Probably some ex-athletes and trust-fund kids.

To the degree that your net worth is already tied up in a primary residence, the stock market, or a productive business, you are already somewhat hedged.

At current bitcoin prices, its not even apparent that bitcoin is even that well priced a hedge relative to real estate or equities.

Eth has some value as a hedge against bitcoin, and all the others have some value as a hedge against both bitcoin and eth concurrently, though we're rapidly approaching rounding down to zero.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079812)

it's like investing in lottery tickets as a hedge against inflation when it comes to bitcoin

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079885)

it seems like a working definition of an 'equity', which has always been a subsection of an 'investment'

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35079943)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080100)

people using it as a store of value is enough for it to have value

http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/2013/04/bitcoin-is-money-bitcoin-is-bubble.html

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080196)

but McDonalds doesn't need to start taking bitcoin for it to be worth something later

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080304)

I already said I think BTC will last because people actually use the coins.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080318)

It turns out that the correct collective strategy in this game is for everyone to standardize on the same asset as a store of value, and for this asset to be one of intrinsically limited quantity. If the quantity is not limited, as for example in a manufactured good, a stable pool of savers will not increase its price. If the quantity is limited, as with gold, Bitcoin, etc, the price will increase as savings energy flows in - and, of course, decrease as it flows back out.

There is no way to eradicate this effect from anything like a realistic economy. There is always at least one bubble. Ideally, this bubble is stable, and we call it "money." If you try to spread savings energy across all the goods in the economy, it will stay in storable goods and not in un-storable ones. It will flee from manufactured goods and end up in rare collectibles. Finally, it will flee from a broad spectrum of collectible assets and end up in a single standard. Those who are late in fleeing are, by definition, caught in a bubble which pops - and taste the pain.

You might imagine that investment transactions would neutralize or at least reduce the demand for money. Not so. True, instead of holding cash, you can hold a debt - a promise of cash delivered next year. Your demand for cash, and your impact on the price of cash, is now zero. However, the economy's demand to save cash is unchanged. In exchange for that debt, you gave someone else a bunch of cash. She is now the saver.

Bitcoin is an exceptionally pure test of the BTM, because it has no intrinsic utility. It is uncomfortably reminiscent of that apex specimen of the South Sea Bubble, "a company for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is." One of the problems with the South Sea Bubble - in fact, one of the reasons why South Sea Company stock could not become a new monetary standard - was the inability to define a reason why one security should be the standard, and not another. There are Bitcoin clones, all more or less worthless. Bitcoin is a protocol standard, and everyone in our era knows how protocol standards play: winner takes all.

When we define the essential characteristic of "moneyness" as overvaluation, not as currency, we see that commerce in Bitcoin has no direct relevance at all to its price. If you are spending in Bitcoin, you are not holding it. All that affects the BTC/USD exchange rate is the order book of the people who hold BTC and are willing to sell it for USD, and vice versa.

Indeed, it is logically possible to imagine an economy in which the medium of saving and the medium of exchange are different assets, and the medium of saving is overvalued but the medium of exchange is not. This actually happens in seriously mismanaged Third World countries, in which all savings flees to gold or hard currency, and the soft currency is held only for immediate commerce. Often with an inflation rate of double digits per month.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080380)

It's not a good comparison. People have to start and then continue to use these coins in order for them to have value

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080294)

that's the requirement

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080393)

for the shitcoins, using it in transactions

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080348)

again, all that's needed is to be able to exchange it back into something to make transactions with

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080401)

*evan39 takes off apron and quits*

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080377)

I'm talking about the shitcoins no one actually uses.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080358)

people use Litecoin.

there’s an online poker site that accepts deposits in over 100 cryptos. sure, you can laugh but they were laughing at Bitcoin too when it started out with similar, humble beginnings.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080409)

how are they determining its value?

is it some exchange value less 5%? something like that?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080374)

you are the point of the criticism of bitcoin. it does nothing for you. you don't even know what it is or how it works.

but you made money on it so you think you're smart.

what you are is lucky. you bet on bitcoin going up because

because

and you were right.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080801)

"i agree that it’s speculation, not investment at this stage. "

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080864)

people may find great uses for the battery technology used within a tesla and that will help tesla owners not at all.

the problem with this analogy is that tesla owners still have something of value--a working vehicle. bitcoin owners have a unique series of characters they can sell to someone else if they can find someone else who wants the same

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080844)

Many people do think it's overpriced though.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080079)

Posters in here actually thought that the coins represent shares in the company and some even thought they'd be worth something long term even if no one uses them or derives profits from them. The coins would just "sit" in there account and people would buy them just to have them sit in their account.

LJL

Many have confused their earnings the last year from this bubble with their actual skill in predicting these "asset" prices and therefore trust their opinion that they are worth something and will be in the future even if they have no use.

Like " I MADE THOUSANDS ON SHITCOINS AND DID RESEARCH I OBVIOUSLY KNOW WTF IM TALKING ABOUT"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080373)

Now it's riskier though - more like true gambling

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080415)

what news is it moving on?

it does strike me as a large bubble

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080457)

if you own gold do you own a share in its underlying value/total market cap or not? don’t be obtuse

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080483)

The problem is, bitcoin is a long way from being universally accepted as a store of value, and I’m not seeing a lot of reason that it should be chosen versus the multitude of other coins.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080820)

I also put in around $30k over the past several weeks into various shitcoins, which is now worth around $50k.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080575)

i am dreading having to figure out taxes though - just started doing my excel, FMA

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080651)

I'm planning on trying to import everything into a program like this:

https://bitcoin.tax/

But the problem is certain exchanges don't let you export your trade history, like Liqui. I have an Excel, but it's fucking massive at this point and don't know what to do with it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080703)

Literally dreading doing taxes this year, FMA.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080874)

Probably the easiest way to see this is to consolidate dollars, Treasury notes, and in fact all securities explicitly or implicitly supported by the US Government - a strong argument could be made that this set now includes both the stock market and the real-estate market - as USG liabilities. To put it crudely, a dollar is a share of stock in America. Like a frequent-flier mile (which is also a liability), it confers no explicit rights, but can be redeemed for valuable privileges (especially on April 15).

This set of liabilities is constantly expanding - quite a bit more rapidly than the Bitcoin pool. In plain English, USG leaks money. It bleeds, in fact, like a stuck pig. When we do accounting in a diluting equity like this, the rational way to track our positions is not by the number of shares, but by the percentage of ownership. If we adopt this "normalized accounting," we see that normalized money is constantly being sucked out of our bank accounts.

Fortunately for those who live in America, normalized accounting also shows us that consumer prices in America are constantly dropping. Price deflation is the rule. Consumer price indexes show negligible price changes in non-normalized accounting, not only because they are fudged and rigged, but because prices are set by dollars competing for goods. Because American spenders have fewer and fewer normalized dollars to spend every year, normalized consumer prices are also dropping.

But the quantity of these normalized dollars is constant, so they have to go somewhere. Where do they go? To Asia and to rich people, generally. If we look at the prices, normalized or not, of the assets that Asians and rich people buy, we see these prices going up. Rather rapidly. So, for these people (who hold quite a few dollars), the dollar is a rather poor store of value.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3849200&forum_id=2#35080867)