The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
Democrats win state senate race in WI in a district Trump won by 17 points
Poast new message in this thread
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:08 PM Author: Blathering church building The special elections have gone democrats' way. Even in districts where they lost, the margin was far smaller than expected. 2018 will be a bloodbath on par with 1994 and 2010.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/17/16899932/special-elections-2018-results |
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:09 PM Author: Provocative crawly travel guidebook telephone Zomg Trump will never be president now! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176151) |
 |
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:13 PM Author: Blathering church building (Trumptard who thinks 2016 and 2018 are equivalent) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176195) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 2:02 PM Author: Frum Market (Trumptard who is running out of new material) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176675) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:10 PM Author: Mildly Autistic Deep Indian Lodge Drumpf done here (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176158) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:11 PM Author: Swollen honey-headed corner Country wont make it to 2020. The war waged in DC from Jan 2019 through Jan 2021 is going to be catastrophic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176163) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:13 PM Author: angry knife location Not looking good for trump in 2020. Hopefully he gets that wall built and repeals Obamacare soon. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176185) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:14 PM Author: Blathering church building GOP will lose Congress in 2018, and Trump will lose in 2020.
Trump's 2016 election was due to Hillary being a loathsome candidate. He got fewer votes in WI than Romney and fewer votes in MI and OH than Bush 04. He did not win because he fundamentally re-aligned the electorate. |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:17 PM Author: nubile scarlet electric furnace weed whacker hillary clinton is the most qualified candidate for president ever
|
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:18 PM Author: Mildly Autistic Deep Indian Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176258) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:19 PM Author: fiercely-loyal halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176273) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:23 PM Author: angry knife location I think you’re mostly on point. Let’s not completely discount the chances of the Democrats nominating another loathsome candidate though. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176332) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 2:26 PM Author: Blathering church building The 2020 Dem bench is pretty strong. As long as they don't nominate Bernie or Warren, they're good. Also, I have a hard time believing that the economy in 2020 will be as strong as it is now. And due to Trump's utter lack of discipline, self-control, and professionalism, he will continue alienating a large swath of the electorate. In 2016, his retard schtick worked because it was a refreshing contrast to the cerebral elitism of Obama and represented change for voters tired of traditional politicians. In 2020, the gig will be up, as the entire election will be a referendum on Trump: both personally and his presidency.
|
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 2:28 PM Author: Frum Market "In 2016, his retard schtick worked because it was a refreshing contrast to the cerebral elitism of Obama "
I guess this is the 2018 way of saying, "Uppity Nigger"? |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 2:31 PM Author: angry knife location Harris or Oprah would be easy for Trump to attack and might scare a lot of the same Midwest white voters into voting for trump again (especially if the economy is still good). I think it would still be offset (and then some) by increased black turnout for Dems but who knows.
Dems taking control of Congress in 2018 would help a lot because they can run endless investigations and pass laws that trump will look bad if he vetoes.
|
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 2:32 PM Author: Frum Market The same way those same white voters were too scared to vote for a Black man when he ran for POTUS? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176970) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 2:34 PM Author: vengeful newt menage Can you not make EVERYTHING about race? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176990) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 3:28 PM Author: Blathering church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35177448) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 2:39 PM Author: angry knife location Most white voters are open to voting for someone of any color, especially Democrat voters. Obama ran on a mostly straight forward liberal platform that, while a bit to the left of the party at the time, wasn’t anything too divisive among left/center left types.
If Oprah/Harris run a campaign primarily centered around identity politics, don’t be surprised if 2020 ends up being competitive. Either one would still be a solid favorite considering Trump’s unpopularity... but so was Hillary.
Luckily, I don’t think either one will win the nomination. |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 2:33 PM Author: vengeful newt menage LMAO who is on this strong bench??? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176983) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:13 PM Author: Lake Lay oh no not a state senate race! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176192) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:37 PM Author: motley ultramarine center cumskin Winner probably promised to vote NO on Prop 69 -- cutting wages for teachers at Menominee Junior High School (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176456) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 2:10 PM Author: Lake Lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176740) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 2:37 PM Author: irradiated grizzly hunting ground (guy who thinks ballot propositions are voted on by the state senate) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35177021) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:19 PM Author: cerebral very tactful resort did the DEM candidate run on amnesty, white privilege/systemic racism? its silly to look at that race as any kind of indicator for 2020. Obama got whooped in 2010 but easily won reelection in 2012. its slightly more relevant for 2018 though but not much since by nature ppl are much more willing to vote in non partisan way at state level. Look at Illinois electing a GOP governor
better indicator is congressional/senate seats that GOP was holding. its been kind of a mixed bag there. GOP successfully defended all house seats and lost AL senate. but AL had a real shitty candidate.
the fact that you think a fucking state senate race (run entirely on local issues and doesn't motivate the base as much as POTUS election) is relevant for 2020 shows why you only got into part time Columbia b school and never got MBB or bulge bracket. you probably flunked every single case interview and data analysis question |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 2:04 PM Author: Tan rehab keepsake machete Cr. Big test coming up is a PA US House special election in March (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176691) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 2:15 PM Author: cerebral very tactful resort agree. if GOP loses that then they most likely lose house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176784) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 2:13 PM Author: Frum Market https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTwh4m5U0AA4Nsi.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176764) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 2:16 PM Author: Lake Lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176792) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 2:42 PM Author: Blathering church building 1. Obama, even when people disagreed with his policies, was always personally popular. Very rarely did Obama's approval rating go below 45%. Contrast this to Trump, where he is stuck in the 30's despite a robust economy and substantive accomplishments. If you think Obama and Trump are comparable, then you have no idea what you're talking about.
2. You mentioned the congressional/senate special elections. So the GOP candidates who managed to win, underperformed Trump and prior congressmen who held those seats. In VA, Northam vastly outperformed the polls, winning by 9 points, the biggest victory by a Democrat since 1985. The VA House of Delegates nearly flipped, with only a random drawing from a bowl saving GOP control. Gillespie was a strong candidate with a great policy platform; he actually did fine with core Trump voters and actually did better with minorities than Trump did. But he got blown out because college educated suburban whites came out to register a protest vote against Trump.
3. The WI state senate race is not a harbinger of 2020, and I never said it was. Rather, when a huge GOP district swings to the Dems in such a short time period, it raises valid questions about the mood in "Middle America" and how voters perceive Trump and the overall GOP brand. When there is a wave, it doesn't affect just Senate and governor races but down ballot as well, including local races. Look at the enormous gains made by the GOP in 2010 at state legislatures and obscure local races. The Dems basically got wiped out across all levels during the Obama presidency.
|
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:25 PM Author: Cocky sickened ticket booth Stfu you psychotic concern troll (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176345) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:49 PM Author: cerebral very tactful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176560) |
|
Date: January 17th, 2018 7:05 PM Author: out-of-control lime dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35178970) |
|
Date: January 18th, 2018 1:49 PM Author: Blathering church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35183971) |