Mark cuban: the world's first trillionaire will be an AI entrepreneur
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: February 23rd, 2018 5:46 PM Author: wild newt
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/13/mark-cuban-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-will-be-an-ai-entrepreneur.html
i dont think the next AI trillionaire though is going to be the person who invents one groundbreaking thing and then just coasts on that for the rest of his life. i think its going to be a person who can take all of the AI technology and synthesize it to pull it all together and make something incredible. i think the next AI entrepreneur who's going to really make it big is going to be a big picture guy.
i'm finding already that so many of these PHD guys who are into machine learning are so narrowly focused. they are very good and are very knowledgeable on one particular subset of machine learning, but when i ask them other questions that don't directly relate to their specific area i find they clam up and just can't answer. that's why i think the person who's going to make it big in this field is going to be a big picture thinker who can synthesize the entire AI ecosystem and communicate it effectively, and not necessarily someone who understands on a very deep level AI theory and exactly HOW the different algorithms work
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3902015&forum_id=2#35472421) |
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Date: February 24th, 2018 4:30 PM Author: wild newt
haha touche
no but what i'm really getting at is the guy who can see the big picture, and who isn't necessarily a technical expert at all of the permutations AI has taken, will be the winner after this all shakes out
who can somehow connect what's being done with natural language processing with neural networks with another subset of AI, as an example
because right now, AI seems very segmented, and many AI "experts" are only experts in a very narrow band of AI. those types of people will be needed, obviously, but will not be the true winners
i don't even think the winner in AI will have a PHD in the subject area
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3902015&forum_id=2#35478895) |
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Date: February 25th, 2018 2:36 PM Author: silver odious menage really tough guy
I think the complexity of the brain is not as high as most people imagine.
http://lesswrong.com/lw/md2/the_brain_as_a_universal_learning_machine/
The cortex is highly regular. Additionally, the problems that AI has making rapid progress on over the last few years are likely some of the hardest - vision and auditory process have undergone much more evolutionary refinement than higher level abstract and logical reasoning. From this perspective, the fact we are seeing superhuman performance in tasks like image recognition, facial recognition and speech processing should be very alarming. It is becoming increasingly difficult for me to imagine we won't see AGI in the next 30 years.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3902015&forum_id=2#35484023) |
Date: February 24th, 2018 6:05 PM Author: silver odious menage really tough guy
AGI is much more likely to come out of a large company like Google than be created by an entrepreneur who has some creative insight into the problem. The reason is that progress is very closely related to available computing power. Efforts like DeepMind/Google Brain have an enormous edge with their ability to rapidly iterate through ML architectutes to find ones that work. Deep reinforcement learning is tricky and requires the optimization of many different parameters to get a working agent. This is basically done through trial and error.
The way ML research appears to be going - learning the learning algorithms themselves - seems to provide an even stronger advantage to established companies that can provide huge computing budgets to their AI research efforts.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3902015&forum_id=2#35479391) |
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Date: February 24th, 2018 7:35 PM Author: wild newt
that's the answer i was expecting (and afraid you were going to say)
can you imagine the implications of this though? google or whoever develops this will be able to sell this to the highest bidder. think of it - a tool for, just as an example, providing the best corporate strategy for your business to dominate your entire industry and destroy your competition. companies will be fighting over that tool. companies would KILL for that tool.
AGI is scary as fuck to me, because it will be such an incredibly powerful tool. it will be the last invention of the human race.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3902015&forum_id=2#35479875) |
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Date: February 24th, 2018 7:44 PM Author: wild newt
dude
lets talk more about this offline
whats your email?
i'm glad you have my concern. these tools are very powerful, but we must be careful.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3902015&forum_id=2#35479945) |
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Date: February 24th, 2018 8:31 PM Author: silver odious menage really tough guy
My personal view is that keeping humans in the loop as decision makers is not a stable solution in a world with AGI. If someone wants to use an AI consultant in their company to offer guidance (but doesn't give it freedom to act), they will be rapidly outcompeted by another company where there is no human to slow or weaken decision making. The same goes for countries and their militaries.
This means that people will be programming all sorts of utility functions (many of them stupid or contrary to most of humanity's welfare) into superhuman reinforcement learners that have the power to take actions in the real world. In some sense this isn't too different from what we have now (people often have opposing goals). My concern is that
utility functions that conflict directly with human welfare could easily have an advantage here, and outcompete the agents we actually want.
The winner take all scenario is also potentially bad but for different reasons.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3902015&forum_id=2#35480327) |
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Date: February 24th, 2018 8:56 PM Author: wild newt
how realistic is that winner take all scenario though?
it would seem to me that once AGI is created, it is just going to be a matter of time before a few players dominate every single industry. there will basically be no room for new entrants in any given industry. competition will be eradicated.
i'm trying not to be pessimistic here, though. but it is scary. it's like new entrants to the market will be going against a fucking goliath. it will be like gary kasparov playing against deep blue. except this time it won't be a chess game.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3902015&forum_id=2#35480487) |
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Date: February 24th, 2018 7:39 PM Author: wild newt
whoever invents AGI will have almost total control of the fucking world it seems.
that is such a scary fucking concept. can you even fucking imagine?
artificial intelligence fascinates me endlessly. but it also terrifies me, because if we're not careful this thing is going to get way out of hand.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3902015&forum_id=2#35479906) |
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