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NXPI: risk-free oafish 3% spread

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Mustard deer antler codepig
  03/07/18
Wait until Mofcom blocks the deal
Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag
  03/07/18
LJL why is Mofcom blocking this deal. You think they're goin...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  03/07/18
Maybe for CFIUS blocking every deal with the Chinese I'm ...
Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag
  03/07/18
Yes because arbs are paranoid queers who are already choked ...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  03/07/18
2014 Blocked Seagate/Samsung in 2011 Western Digital / Hit...
Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag
  03/07/18
There is a 0% chance QCOM steps away even if they lose the p...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  03/07/18
...
Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag
  07/25/18
Just lol at faggot arbs continuing to puke this thing. This ...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  03/09/18
...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  03/20/18
Approaching 6% now lmao Even if China plays hardball I do...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  03/22/18
LJL holy shit this is such a massive buy
Mustard deer antler codepig
  03/28/18
time to buy is rn if you are going to imho
Sepia box office persian
  03/28/18
This is probably the best stock you could possibly buy right...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/04/18
...
rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall
  04/04/18
Explain how it's "much more likely" to close Ne...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/04/18
...
rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall
  04/11/18
Okay now let's compate Marvell and Qualcomm. Qualcomm lit...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/11/18
What’s your point
rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall
  04/11/18
That Qualcomm will ultimately accede to Mofcom's ask (whatev...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/11/18
...
rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall
  04/11/18
"shareholders on both sides are lukewarm about the comb...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/11/18
Please do
rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall
  04/11/18
The biggest NXPI shareholders such as Elliott have signed ir...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/11/18
...
rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall
  04/11/18
When you say "most" you're talking about Elliott a...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/11/18
We’ll see. Good luck man I agree it’s a good buy at $115
rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall
  04/11/18
We'll see what unfolds
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/11/18
LJL this is fucking absurd. Arbs are full so no one can buy ...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/04/18
Friendly reminder that this spread is fucking enormous and C...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/11/18
I'm going to continue pounding the table on this btw
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/11/18
Much like the POUNDING my asshold has received from when I m...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/11/18
Update: $11.50 or almost a 10% gross spread. Arb faggots are...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/11/18
brother unless you have inside info here you are literally j...
crusty forum
  04/11/18
I 100% have no inside info, but in a sense all stock market ...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/11/18
im just questioning your 90% certainty man, there's a big di...
crusty forum
  04/11/18
That was a hypothetical example. IDK what the exact %s are b...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/11/18
godspeed brother i'm rooting for you
crusty forum
  04/11/18
ty friend
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/11/18
Daily reminder this is a massive fucking buy
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/12/18
Buying stock below $114 is a gift btw
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/12/18
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-delays-deal-reviews-as-u-...
Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag
  04/13/18
This headline reads much worse than the reality; if you saw ...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/13/18
I don't want to be an asshole but on March 7 when you initia...
Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag
  04/16/18
Oh absolutely, I got anally ravaged from my initial OP. That...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/17/18
Most merger arb shops run incredibly levered Picking up p...
Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag
  04/17/18
10x is high, and would only be done for something with a fir...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/17/18
i can tell you'll blow yourself up (or have already done so)...
Razzle-dazzle ebony den
  04/17/18
Do please explain to me all the new information that doesn't...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/17/18
it seems like the only new information is that people are fl...
crusty forum
  04/17/18
Right, which is another of way of spouting efficient market ...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/17/18
...
rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall
  04/19/18
?
180 factory reset button hominid
  04/19/18
I don't understand why you bumped this so much and then took...
Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag
  04/19/18
This is down again today. Is this a major buy tomorrow?
fragrant garrison jap
  04/19/18
Any thoughts? Thinking about putting a substantial amoun...
fragrant garrison jap
  04/19/18
Bought a position just now around 105.70. If buyout goes...
fragrant garrison jap
  04/20/18
15x P/E on $7 of EPS seems like a reasonable value. Will ge...
Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag
  04/20/18
When your doing arbs - the liquidations and the take private...
pearl ticket booth
  04/20/18
And is it, in this case?
Heady hell
  04/20/18
This is extremely painful, believe me. But if you have an...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/20/18
Nobody is working there anymore. They've all left or are on...
Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag
  05/03/18
OAFISH 25%
rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall
  04/24/18
It's enormous. I'd recommend owning this.
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/24/18
I am not allowed to otherwise I would
rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall
  04/24/18
...
excitant autistic mediation
  04/24/18
There is still effectively no reason for China to block this...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/24/18
Finally going up today jfc There is still a fucking absur...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  04/26/18
bump for 8.5% "risk-free" drop today
Mentally Impaired Temple Pistol
  05/03/18
lol dumbass
Razzle-dazzle ebony den
  05/03/18
$91
Galvanic parlour
  05/03/18
38% spread and no buyers except OP
rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall
  05/03/18
A good buy now? It probably is at some point right?
Heady hell
  05/03/18
Yes
rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall
  05/03/18
Lots of HFers are going to lose their jobs over this
rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall
  05/03/18
Guys at Elliott having a no bueno time
Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag
  05/03/18
Looking better today faggots!
Mustard deer antler codepig
  05/14/18
ATTN: FAGGOTS Mofcom just approved their second deal this...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  05/17/18
Beijing official says NXPI/QCOM looking more optimistic. Wav...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  05/18/18
Seriously u gotta buy this thing if u haven't yet. Big sprea...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  05/18/18
fgts
Mustard deer antler codepig
  05/18/18
...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  05/18/18
Okay you faggots I hope some of you were buying this because...
Mustard deer antler codepig
  05/22/18
still an ok spread though
Mustard deer antler codepig
  05/22/18
JFC you fags didn't buy a single share did you
Mustard deer antler codepig
  05/25/18
I can see it in your eyes, you don't have a single share
Rough-skinned hilarious halford church
  06/14/18
Suck my dick faggots!!!!
Mustard deer antler codepig
  06/14/18
So it only took you six months and you made a sweet 3%? Cool
motley native
  07/10/18
edit: oops looked at wrong year OP made an ok swing on t...
crusty forum
  07/10/18
Do you even MOFCOM?
Cream big locus
  07/10/18
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/qualcomm-is-preparing-to-giv...
chocolate bateful business firm
  07/25/18
lol
crusty forum
  07/25/18
Op owned?
tan double fault
  07/25/18
Date: March 7th, 2018 4:26 PM Author: DrakeMallard (Daring ...
Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag
  07/25/18
lol op is pwned
Razzle-dazzle ebony den
  07/25/18
March 7 stock was at $124. Closed today at $92.81 That's ...
Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag
  07/26/18
lol so u were short NKE at $80 and its at $85 and ur long NX...
soul-stirring tripping kitty
  09/28/18
OP we need an update. There is free money at stake.
Cream big locus
  08/29/18
Guys should I buy at $85?
passionate plum turdskin
  09/28/18
...
passionate plum turdskin
  09/28/18
...
Orchid Histrionic Corner
  10/09/18
??
Razzle-dazzle ebony den
  12/08/18
Only down like 35% YTD - better or worse investment than cry...
high-end low-t son of senegal cruise ship
  12/08/18
worse. im up like 10x from the start of the year in crypto. ...
Razzle-dazzle ebony den
  12/08/18
...
Adventurous disgusting idiot
  03/23/20
...
Adventurous disgusting idiot
  04/21/20
...
Adventurous disgusting idiot
  12/13/21
Looking at almost a double here. N2B
pearl ticket booth
  12/13/21


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2018 2:56 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35554784)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2018 4:26 PM
Author: Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag

Wait until Mofcom blocks the deal

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35555491)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2018 4:36 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

LJL why is Mofcom blocking this deal. You think they're going to use this as a lever to retaliate over tariffs?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35555571)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2018 4:38 PM
Author: Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag

Maybe for CFIUS blocking every deal with the Chinese

I'm saying there is a spread for a reason

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35555588)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2018 4:39 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Yes because arbs are paranoid queers who are already choked to the gills on NXPI. People always freak out over mofcom because it's a black box, but when is the last time they blocked a deal?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35555600)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2018 5:00 PM
Author: Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag

2014

Blocked Seagate/Samsung in 2011

Western Digital / Hitachi in 2012

Blocked a shipping co merger in 2014

You could make the same argument for CFIUS - its doing unprecedented shit with Broadcom / Qualcomm

The other reason there is a spread is if Broadcom wins the proxy fight for QCOM then steps away from NXPI bid

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35555776)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2018 5:16 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

There is a 0% chance QCOM steps away even if they lose the proxy fight. Check the docs, they're locked in here, and this is the classic arb queer paranoia I'm talking about.

In theory mofcom could block, but after like 12 other regulatory agencies approved it, the chances are pretty remote.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35555891)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 25th, 2018 4:25 PM
Author: Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36495255)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 9th, 2018 11:10 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Just lol at faggot arbs continuing to puke this thing. This is actual free money.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35568910)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 10:09 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35644202)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 22nd, 2018 11:53 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Approaching 6% now lmao

Even if China plays hardball I don't see them fighting a trade war via mofcom. Arbs are literal faggots always and forever.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35660984)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 28th, 2018 12:14 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

LJL holy shit this is such a massive buy

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35709018)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 28th, 2018 12:18 PM
Author: Sepia box office persian

time to buy is rn if you are going to imho

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35709052)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 4th, 2018 11:02 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

This is probably the best stock you could possibly buy right now

If deal goes through (it almost certainly will): you make 10% in <1 month

If deal gets blocked by China (it almost certainly won't): stock trades down initially and then rips higher when the big boys snap it up from the faggot arbs

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35760885)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 4th, 2018 11:08 AM
Author: rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35760924)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 4th, 2018 11:10 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Explain how it's "much more likely" to close

Needs CFIUS and Mofcom vs. just Mofcom

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35760936)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:50 AM
Author: rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815338)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:52 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Okay now let's compate Marvell and Qualcomm.

Qualcomm literally does 2/3rds of its revs in China and is considered a model corporate citizen there. Sure their management team is full of dumb stubborn faggots but ultimately they will do whatever China asks to get this deal done. Because they have to.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815353)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:55 AM
Author: rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall

What’s your point

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815393)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:59 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

That Qualcomm will ultimately accede to Mofcom's ask (whatever it ends up being) because

1) Qualcomm does so much business in China and has to remain in their good graces

2) Qualcomm is a dead dog without NXPI and they know it (despite being dumb stupid stubborn faggots)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815422)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:16 AM
Author: rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815553)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:20 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

"shareholders on both sides are lukewarm about the combo" this is 100% wrong, and I can elaborate if need be

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815575)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:21 AM
Author: rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall

Please do

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815584)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:26 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

The biggest NXPI shareholders such as Elliott have signed irrevocable tenders for their shares - they are 100% locked into the $127.50 deal price (though if the deal breaks they won't be too upset since they think the stock is worth more on a standalone basis). NXPI holders want this done so they can take their money and move on - at this point the shareholder base is mostly arbs who are choking on it.

Qualcomm shareholders are fed up with management because they have no grand strategy moving forward. The NXPI acquisition is massively accretive and immediately so. Without NXPI, Qualcomm is only mobile phones and lawsuits - their "backup plan" is a stock buyback. Shareholders want this deal done so they can actually have a viable business going forward.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815616)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:56 AM
Author: rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815888)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:59 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

When you say "most" you're talking about Elliott and other big funds who ran a very public campaign that NXPI was worth more than the $110/share Qualcomm was offering. Then Qualcomm bumped it up to $127.50 and those big funds signed an irrevocable tender, meaning they are locked into the deal. On the NXPI side, the deal is done.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815909)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 12:17 PM
Author: rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall

We’ll see. Good luck man I agree it’s a good buy at $115

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35816030)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 12:19 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

We'll see what unfolds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35816049)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 4th, 2018 3:31 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

LJL this is fucking absurd. Arbs are full so no one can buy it. Take advantage!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35763326)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 9:12 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Friendly reminder that this spread is fucking enormous and China will approve the deal because they're not retards.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35814628)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:16 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

I'm going to continue pounding the table on this btw

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815040)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:32 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Much like the POUNDING my asshold has received from when I made this OP

Still a great trade though!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815156)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:40 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Update: $11.50 or almost a 10% gross spread. Arb faggots are "freaking out" over "China" "approval."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815250)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:23 AM
Author: crusty forum

brother unless you have inside info here you are literally just gambling. and that's fine, 50/50 you could be right, i love to gamble myself, but why are you settling for 10% return on gambling? if you are going to gamble go big and shoot for 10x returns, not fucking 9%

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815593)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:27 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

I 100% have no inside info, but in a sense all stock market investing is "gambling."

Put it this way: if the market is pricing in a 10% chance of a deal getting done, and you think there's a 90% chance of the deal getting done, is that a gamble you'd want to take?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815628)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:31 AM
Author: crusty forum

im just questioning your 90% certainty man, there's a big diference between there being an actual 90% chance of deal getting done and you thinking it/betting that a china regulatory agency you have no insight into will not quash it

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815654)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:36 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

That was a hypothetical example. IDK what the exact %s are but it's actually not too much different from what I stated.

But you can look at history, other worldwide approvals, and just plain logic to see that there is an overwhelming probability China approves this. Not only that, even if the deal did break, it's very likely the stock would trade higher from here after an initial shakeout. The only reason it's as low as it is is that arbs took way too much risk in this name and are feeling the pain. It's a market structure issue.

Another way of putting this is the efficient market theory is horseshit.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815694)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 11:57 AM
Author: crusty forum

godspeed brother i'm rooting for you

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815894)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 12:00 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

ty friend

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815913)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 12th, 2018 9:57 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Daily reminder this is a massive fucking buy

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35823065)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 12th, 2018 12:43 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Buying stock below $114 is a gift btw

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35824674)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 13th, 2018 11:37 AM
Author: Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-delays-deal-reviews-as-u-s-trade-frictions-build-1523628379

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35832556)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 13th, 2018 12:10 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

This headline reads much worse than the reality; if you saw Faber on CNBC this morning and/or saw recent stories on M&A blogs, this is a timing issue rather than a regulatory issue.

The deal's still getting done and the stock is still a screaming buy here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35832801)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 16th, 2018 11:56 AM
Author: Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag

I don't want to be an asshole but on March 7 when you initially wrote your OP, the stock was trading at $124, for a risk free oafish spread of 3%

It is now sub 113, for an 11% spread. You've lost 8% in a risk free trade that would have gotten you 3% in gains

Now obviously the calculus for new money is different at $113. You're looking at a risk free oafish spread of 11%. That seems interesting as the downside from here seems limited for NXPI on a standalone basis as at $113 it trades at sub 14x P/E

I'm not a merger arb guy but my friends in the space tell me it is all about entry combined with risk/reward. A 3% reward wasn't sufficient, even with signficant leverage boosting returns

Imagine being 10:1 levered trying to squeeze out a 30% return on that 3% spread. The move down would have blown you up. At 10:1 leverage on that 11% spread would get you a 110% return - that sounds a lot sexier

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35851000)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 17th, 2018 11:44 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Oh absolutely, I got anally ravaged from my initial OP. That said, the risk/reward has only gotten more attractive here, and anyone with free capital should be buying. Also, if you're levering up these trades 10:1, you pretty much deserve whatever you get.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35858900)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 17th, 2018 12:43 PM
Author: Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag

Most merger arb shops run incredibly levered

Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller IMO but I guess its a living

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35859433)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 17th, 2018 12:58 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

10x is high, and would only be done for something with a firm closing date on it

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35859557)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 17th, 2018 12:45 PM
Author: Razzle-dazzle ebony den

i can tell you'll blow yourself up (or have already done so) because you're really bad at adjusting your views based on new information

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35859450)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 17th, 2018 12:57 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Do please explain to me all the new information that doesn't make this a huge buy

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35859542)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 17th, 2018 1:00 PM
Author: crusty forum

it seems like the only new information is that people are fleeing the deal

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35859568)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 17th, 2018 1:02 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Right, which is another of way of spouting efficient market theory horseshit. When the thesis hasn't changed yet the risk/reward has improved markedly is exactly when you should be loading up

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35859585)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 9:00 AM
Author: rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35872985)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 1:04 PM
Author: 180 factory reset button hominid

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35874724)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 7:14 PM
Author: Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag

I don't understand why you bumped this so much and then took none of the advice or other viewpoints offered

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35877256)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 7:24 PM
Author: fragrant garrison jap

This is down again today. Is this a major buy tomorrow?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35877304)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 10:34 PM
Author: fragrant garrison jap

Any thoughts?

Thinking about putting a substantial amount down on this tomorrow morning. Putting aside the buyout (which would be a quick ~20% gain), I like this stock. So even if it fell through, it’s not the end of the world.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35878356)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 20th, 2018 11:01 AM
Author: fragrant garrison jap

Bought a position just now around 105.70.

If buyout goes through looks like it will be about 20% gain by July.

If not, I like th stock anyways. And they will be owed 2b I believe.

Seems like a calculated, sensible risk here.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35881173)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 20th, 2018 11:28 AM
Author: Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag

15x P/E on $7 of EPS seems like a reasonable value. Will get you a $105 stock on the fundamentals

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35881367)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 20th, 2018 11:30 AM
Author: pearl ticket booth

When your doing arbs - the liquidations and the take privates are the lowest risk - reg agency stuff like MOFCOM or local Utility Comissions or Antitrust can get crazy -

UNLESS OF COURSE the company as a stand alone is a high quality asset worth owning

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35881378)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 20th, 2018 11:57 AM
Author: Heady hell

And is it, in this case?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35881566)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 20th, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

This is extremely painful, believe me.

But if you have any kind of balance sheet here, this is a great spot to buy the stock. Because it is, in fact, a great stand-alone asset.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35881585)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2018 9:55 AM
Author: Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag

Nobody is working there anymore. They've all left or are on vacation

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35972537)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 24th, 2018 3:00 PM
Author: rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall

OAFISH 25%

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35910098)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 24th, 2018 3:34 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

It's enormous. I'd recommend owning this.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35910448)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 24th, 2018 3:39 PM
Author: rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall

I am not allowed to otherwise I would

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35910496)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 24th, 2018 3:36 PM
Author: excitant autistic mediation



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35910462)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 24th, 2018 3:37 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

There is still effectively no reason for China to block this deal. Arbs got way too big in this and have puked it all over their shoes.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35910478)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 10:38 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Finally going up today jfc

There is still a fucking absurd spread in this that is totally unjustified by the fundamentals

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35923849)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2018 9:31 AM
Author: Mentally Impaired Temple Pistol

bump for 8.5% "risk-free" drop today

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35972408)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2018 9:33 AM
Author: Razzle-dazzle ebony den

lol dumbass

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35972418)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2018 10:51 AM
Author: Galvanic parlour

$91

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35972927)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2018 12:04 PM
Author: rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall

38% spread and no buyers except OP

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35973443)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2018 12:46 PM
Author: Heady hell

A good buy now? It probably is at some point right?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35973749)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2018 2:11 PM
Author: rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall

Yes

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35974354)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2018 3:25 PM
Author: rambunctious marvelous international law enforcement agency hall

Lots of HFers are going to lose their jobs over this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35974932)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2018 3:27 PM
Author: Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag

Guys at Elliott having a no bueno time

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35974950)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2018 12:39 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Looking better today faggots!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36047475)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 17th, 2018 9:02 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

ATTN: FAGGOTS

Mofcom just approved their second deal this week. They're speeding things along again. There's still a lot of money left in this oafish spread!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36067746)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 18th, 2018 10:49 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Beijing official says NXPI/QCOM looking more optimistic. Wave this cocksucker in! Buy Buy Buy!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36076563)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 18th, 2018 10:53 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Seriously u gotta buy this thing if u haven't yet. Big spread!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36076604)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 18th, 2018 11:02 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

fgts

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36076678)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 18th, 2018 11:22 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36076828)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 22nd, 2018 8:04 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Okay you faggots I hope some of you were buying this because I was trying to make you money on that absurd move lower

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36103033)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 22nd, 2018 10:32 AM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

still an ok spread though

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36103743)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 25th, 2018 1:30 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

JFC you fags didn't buy a single share did you

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36126517)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 14th, 2018 7:02 PM
Author: Rough-skinned hilarious halford church

I can see it in your eyes, you don't have a single share

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36247353)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 14th, 2018 7:01 PM
Author: Mustard deer antler codepig

Suck my dick faggots!!!!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36247345)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 10th, 2018 11:50 PM
Author: motley native

So it only took you six months and you made a sweet 3%? Cool

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36402680)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 10th, 2018 11:53 PM
Author: crusty forum

edit: oops looked at wrong year

OP made an ok swing on top of a pretty big risk, meh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36402699)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 10th, 2018 11:31 PM
Author: Cream big locus

Do you even MOFCOM?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36402537)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 25th, 2018 4:15 PM
Author: chocolate bateful business firm

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/qualcomm-is-preparing-to-give-up-on-nxp.html

Qualcomm will terminate deal to buy NXP at end of day

Qualcomm is planning to move forward with share buybacks instead of buying NXP.

Qualcomm isn't counting on Chinese regulators to rule in favor of its NXP deal.

Qualcomm CEO Steve Mollenkopf will address his company's share buyback plans during today's conference call.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36495185)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 25th, 2018 4:16 PM
Author: crusty forum

lol

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36495196)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 25th, 2018 4:16 PM
Author: tan double fault

Op owned?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36495198)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 25th, 2018 4:17 PM
Author: Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag

Date: March 7th, 2018 4:26 PM

Author: DrakeMallard (Daring Duck of Mystery, Champion of Right)

Wait until Mofcom blocks the deal



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36495200)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 25th, 2018 5:41 PM
Author: Razzle-dazzle ebony den

lol op is pwned

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36495757)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 26th, 2018 4:23 PM
Author: Carmine laughsome meetinghouse nowag

March 7 stock was at $124. Closed today at $92.81

That's a 25% loss in 4.5 months. Friends don't let friends do merger arbitrage

For what it's worth, I just nibbled on it at $92.50

I think they do $8 of EPS in 2019. 15x that is a $120 stock.

Downside they'll do $7 and get 12x so $84

30% upside / 10% downside for a 3:1 risk/reward

Clear catalysts upcoming: $5B in buybacks funded in part by the QCOM breakup fee + an analyst day. Activist investors could also come in given management has been on the beach for the past 2 years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36502603)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 28th, 2018 12:38 PM
Author: soul-stirring tripping kitty

lol so u were short NKE at $80 and its at $85 and ur long NXPI at $92.81 and it's at $85.

what else you got? i want more -8% ideas.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36914106)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 29th, 2018 2:27 PM
Author: Cream big locus

OP we need an update. There is free money at stake.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36709580)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 28th, 2018 12:37 PM
Author: passionate plum turdskin

Guys should I buy at $85?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36914096)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 28th, 2018 1:39 PM
Author: passionate plum turdskin



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36914656)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 9th, 2018 8:15 PM
Author: Orchid Histrionic Corner



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36993812)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 8th, 2018 1:09 PM
Author: Razzle-dazzle ebony den

??

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#37372446)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 8th, 2018 1:15 PM
Author: high-end low-t son of senegal cruise ship

Only down like 35% YTD - better or worse investment than crypto?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#37372467)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 8th, 2018 1:27 PM
Author: Razzle-dazzle ebony den

worse. im up like 10x from the start of the year in crypto.

edit: actually more like 4x

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#37372526)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2020 4:02 PM
Author: Adventurous disgusting idiot



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#39844253)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 21st, 2020 1:13 PM
Author: Adventurous disgusting idiot



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#40062347)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 13th, 2021 12:51 PM
Author: Adventurous disgusting idiot



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#43601692)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 13th, 2021 1:01 PM
Author: pearl ticket booth

Looking at almost a double here. N2B

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#43601778)