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Nate Silver: ignore the headlines, Dems are crushing Repub's in generic polls

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/101680319605...
.;.;...;.;...;.;.;;;.;.;..;..;.
  07/11/18
Nate Silver Nate Silver @NateSilver538 It's a noisy ind...
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  07/11/18
This is why it's silly to get caught up in narrative wins. ...
.;.;...;.;...;.;.;;;.;.;..;..;.
  07/11/18
What matters is the margins, ie turnout and enthusiasm and a...
Boichester United
  07/11/18
Huh? Completely wrong. Midterms in the first term of a new...
.....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,;
  07/11/18
As you say, turnout matters. I agree independents are a smal...
Boichester United
  07/11/18
"NK or other wins" uh....what?
"'""'"''""
  07/11/18
I don't think NK negotiations were a loss and results are st...
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  07/11/18
ROFL. It's not headlines. It's polls. Voters care a lot abou...
Stickgloo
  07/11/18
...
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  07/11/18
they have 4G at the PATH station?
A Confederacy of Pumos
  07/11/18
...
Maori woman performing defiant haka
  07/11/18
...
Wilbur Mercer, the supreme gentleman
  07/11/18
*MARTA
"'""'"''""
  07/11/18
lol at listening to Nate Methane
libcrusher180
  07/11/18
Nate Silver ‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17h...
Baron Mark von Ironside
  07/11/18
stopped reading when he started with "Like,"
Andrew Jackson's record of tremendous success
  07/11/18
lol i was about to post this too. holy shit this guy is fuck...
GOY SUPERSTAR
  07/11/18
tbf this guy has predicted like 2 of the last 3 presidential...
elmer
  07/11/18
Among liberal pollsters he actually gave Trump way more of a...
.....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,;
  07/11/18
hey, 2 out of 3 is passing if you're using a grading system ...
elmer
  07/11/18
...
Wilbur Mercer, the supreme gentleman
  07/11/18
The curve in this class would make a 40% an A. The route fo...
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  07/11/18
i've predicted 3 of the last 3 presidential elections. what ...
elmer
  07/11/18
Yup
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  07/11/18
tyft
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  07/11/18
It's important to set the right expectations and not get cau...
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  07/11/18
How accurate have generic ballot polls been for predicting m...
Maori woman performing defiant haka
  07/11/18


Poast new message in this thread



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Date: July 11th, 2018 12:51 AM
Author: .;.;...;.;...;.;.;;;.;.;..;..;.


https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1016803196050780160

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36402956)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 12:52 AM
Author: .;.;...;.;...;.;.;;;.;.;..;..;.


Nate Silver

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

It's a noisy indicator so check back in 2 weeks but the generic ballot is the best it's been in a while for Dems. Doesn't really match the narrative where various issues (Immigration! Incivility! Ocasio-Cortez!) are supposed to be causing problems for 'em. (link: https://53eig.ht/2rXyJ7H) 53eig.ht/2rXyJ7H

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36402957)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 12:54 AM
Author: .;.;...;.;...;.;.;;;.;.;..;..;.


This is why it's silly to get caught up in narrative wins. Dems are voting tribally now so no amount of economy or NK or other wins will matter

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36402961)



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Date: July 11th, 2018 11:09 AM
Author: Boichester United

What matters is the margins, ie turnout and enthusiasm and actual middle ground independent voters being swayed.

Just like last election. Obviously the majority of registered members will vote for their party if they vote, but there's room to move re how many of them vote and which way a relative few independents vote. In elections decided by a few percent, that's what matters, and the narrative does affect it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404539)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:17 AM
Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,;


Huh? Completely wrong. Midterms in the first term of a new POTUS are base and turn out elections. Low info independents donít vote and donít typically know the names of their senators and congressmen.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404580)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 12:50 PM
Author: Boichester United

As you say, turnout matters. I agree independents are a small piece of the pie, but when things come down to 2% differences, they can flip a few seats. And narratives matter for both of those, as they influence enthusiasm (ie whether an individual cares enough to go vote) and awareness (ie effective narratives penetrate into people's minds and make them enthused one way or the other; boring ineffective narratives do not.)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36405256)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:38 AM
Author: "'""'"''"" ( )


"NK or other wins"

uh....what?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404720)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:45 AM
Author: .;.;...;.;...;.;.;;;.;.;..;..;.


I don't think NK negotiations were a loss and results are still TBD but fair enough. Replace it with Supreme Court picks if you like

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404769)



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Date: July 11th, 2018 1:00 AM
Author: Stickgloo

ROFL. It's not headlines. It's polls. Voters care a lot about immigration and don't GAF about Russia . But if you read the fake news MSM headlines, you might think otherwise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36402977)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 10:51 AM
Author: .;.;...;.;...;.;.;;;.;.;..;..;.




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404425)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 10:53 AM
Author: A Confederacy of Pumos

they have 4G at the PATH station?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404441)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:17 AM
Author: Maori woman performing defiant haka



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404579)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:17 AM
Author: Wilbur Mercer, the supreme gentleman (Short Pride World Wide)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404582)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:38 AM
Author: "'""'"''"" ( )


*MARTA

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404722)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 10:54 AM
Author: libcrusher180

lol at listening to Nate Methane

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404449)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 10:56 AM
Author: Baron Mark von Ironside

Nate Silver

‏Verified account @NateSilver538

17h17 hours ago

Like, maybe the best midterm strategy for Trump/Republicans would just be to lay low and let people enjoy the relatively good economy instead of trying to own every news cycle and make people think about politics all the time.

--------------------------------------------

Yeah, GOP definitely running every news cycle



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404464)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 10:59 AM
Author: Andrew Jackson's record of tremendous success

stopped reading when he started with "Like,"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404492)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:02 AM
Author: GOY SUPERSTAR

lol i was about to post this too. holy shit this guy is fucking clueless

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404500)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:01 AM
Author: elmer

tbf this guy has predicted like 2 of the last 3 presidential elections so maybe you should listen to him conservatards.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404496)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:14 AM
Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,;


Among liberal pollsters he actually gave Trump way more of a chance than all the others, too, like an order of magnitude higher. Silver landed at basically ďTrumpís a 2-1 dogĒ which actually seems pretty accurate given that Trump had to pull out FL, PA, MI, and WI all super close well within margin of error. That said, lol at spending 30 seconds typing out a tweet about a mid-term congressional generic ballot in July, let alone with this POTUS and media environment.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404558)



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Date: July 11th, 2018 11:15 AM
Author: elmer

hey, 2 out of 3 is passing if you're using a grading system that allows for ds.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404569)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:17 AM
Author: Wilbur Mercer, the supreme gentleman (Short Pride World Wide)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404581)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:20 AM
Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,;


The curve in this class would make a 40% an A. The route for a candidate winning 46% to win the electoral college was very elaborate.

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/rasmussen_reports_calls_it_right

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404599)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:21 AM
Author: elmer

i've predicted 3 of the last 3 presidential elections. what grade does that give me?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404605)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:20 AM
Author: .;.;...;.;...;.;.;;;.;.;..;..;.


Yup

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404600)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:01 AM
Author: ,.,;,;,.;,.;,.;,,,,;,.,;

tyft



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404498)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:47 AM
Author: .;.;...;.;...;.;.;;;.;.;..;..;.


It's important to set the right expectations and not get caught up in the hype

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404776)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 11th, 2018 11:24 AM
Author: Maori woman performing defiant haka

How accurate have generic ballot polls been for predicting midterm results historically?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4022800&forum_id=2#36404629)