what is the probability that democrats retake the House in 2018 election?
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Date: November 7th, 2018 9:35 PM Author: swollen chapel
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4125224&mc=11&forum_id=2
Date: November 6th, 2018 8:01 PM
Author: ...,.........,.........,....
I don't see how Republicans come back, even if the panhandle hasn't reported.
Gillum is doing too well in central florida.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4031486&forum_id=2#37185465)
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Date: July 21st, 2018 2:44 AM Author: Shivering crusty jap
I would be shocked if they don't.
1. In the post-WWII era, the President's party lost an average of 28 seats in its first midterm. Democrats need just 24.
2. In all of those midterm elections, the incumbent party lost seats except in 2002 when the GOP gained seats, due to the 9/11 attacks.
3. Trump's net approval rating is -10, lower than pretty much every other post-WWII POTUS at this point in his presidency.
4. Democratic candidates have raised more money than Republicans so far.
5. Democratic base is far more energized.
6. Democratic generic ballot lead is 8-9 points. It was around 3-4 points back in June but have never been lower than that. Anything +5 means Dems win the House.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4031486&forum_id=2#36469583)
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