I'm short NKE at $80
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| | Slate liquid oxygen | 10/24/18 | | elite native gaping | 10/24/18 | | Slate liquid oxygen | 10/24/18 | | elite native gaping | 10/24/18 | | rose fanboi | 10/24/18 | | Slate liquid oxygen | 10/24/18 | | federal temple weed whacker | 11/25/18 | | elite native gaping | 10/24/18 | | elite native gaping | 10/24/18 | | Wonderful hall | 10/24/18 | | Slate liquid oxygen | 10/24/18 | | aqua heady cumskin | 10/24/18 | | talented bawdyhouse | 10/24/18 | | elite native gaping | 10/24/18 | | Medicated stimulating garrison circlehead | 11/20/18 | | Chest-beating Supple Meetinghouse Bbw | 11/25/18 | | Magenta fragrant office national security agency | 11/25/18 | | elite native gaping | 12/19/18 | | Medicated stimulating garrison circlehead | 12/19/18 | | Indecent out-of-control home prole | 12/19/18 | | elite native gaping | 12/19/18 | | Indecent out-of-control home prole | 12/19/18 | | elite native gaping | 12/19/18 | | Hyperactive friendly grandma | 12/19/18 | | elite native gaping | 12/20/18 | 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Poast new message in this thread
Date: September 4th, 2018 11:30 AM Author: rose fanboi
Stock trades at 30x P/E and 20x EV/EBITDA
Nike stock is up 27% YTD and 51% LTM
30x P/E represents the highest valuation multiple for Nike since 2001 and eclipses the 2015 peak of 28x when revenue was growing 13% y/y
Pre-2014 the stock traded in a band between 15x and 20x.
Since then it's traded from 20-25x. So the current multiple is 25-50% higher than normalized
Why is the valuation multiple so high? The company has accelerated revenue growth from 4% in CY 2017 to an estimated 9% in CY 2018. Accelerating a company this size is indeed impressive and they appear to be gaining share from competitors - namely, Under Armour.
However, profitability growth has not kept up. Fiscal 2018 earnings growth was -5% as the company increased investment to drive revenue growth. Consensus believes these investments will then be curtailed; earnings are estimated to rebound and grow 17% in CY 2019 and then 21% in CY 2020 as these investments pay off.
My short thesis is threefold:
1. Revenue growth will be disappointing as the company loses share to competitors after wading headlong into politics
2. Margins will disappoint as the company will have to increase investment to drive revenue
3. At 30x P/E the company has zero room for error and must not simply meet expectations but clobber them. I don't believe they will
I think the stock does something like 2.80 in Fiscal 2020. 20x that is a $56 stock for 30% downside. Upside the stock does 3.25 and gets 30x for a $97.50 stock for 22% upside. 3:2 reward to risk
I typically don't do consumer stocks but think the market will underestimate what the company has just done to itself similar to how they underestimated EA
I will be incorrect if this all blows over and people move on. However, with the NFL season about to start, Nike being the sole sponsor of the NFL, and anthem protests likely to continue the entire season, pissing off half the consumers in the country, I think this risk is mitigated
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742812)
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:57 AM Author: rose fanboi
You don't have to wait to be in the money, you can flip the options
But yeah the options do look expensive
Maybe sell OTM calls and buy OTM puts and make it costless
You can sell Jan 19 $100 calls for 30c
But I don't do much with options given I need to sling more money around
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742968) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:52 AM Author: rose fanboi
Sure. But Nike wasn't overtly antagonizing 1/3 to 1/2 its customer base.
Pro-Kaep people will still buy Kaep jerseys
Anti-Kaep people won't buy shit
Nike has huge growth expectations - even a hiccup and the stock will drop. I don't need the business to implode or anything, I need it to miss high expectations
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742945) |
Date: September 4th, 2018 1:01 PM Author: Fluffy parlor
I'm not a Kaep fan,
I'm not a fan of Nike's brand in general,
but if you're betting against their intelligence in positioning their brand
I'd take the other side of that bet
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743354) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:21 PM Author: Fluffy parlor
I don't disagree with that
Has Nike ever been a force for good in the world though?
They've been selling shoes by pissing on the social fabric of the world forever.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743465) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:29 PM Author: Fluffy parlor
they were against pro-social values 25 years ago too
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMzdAZ3TjCA
they've always been past the current state of the social decay
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743505) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:32 PM Author: Fluffy parlor
trends are set by teenagers who hate their parents
Nike wants to sell them merchandise
logical argumentation doesn't have anything to do with it
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743520) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:36 PM Author: Fluffy parlor
Republicans aren't immune from trying to buy their bratty kids' love
kids are resourceful for a few hundred bucks when they want to be
------
Nike's entire business model revolves around being savy about exactly how far to push the envelope
They're smarter at this than Hillary Clinton's campaign managers
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743556) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 2:01 PM Author: rose fanboi
"I'm not a Kaep fan,
I'm not a fan of Nike's brand in general,
but if you're betting against their intelligence in positioning their brand
I'd take the other side of that bet"
Long term maybe you're right, but shorting long term is retarded. Short term this stock is priced for utter perfection. I'm not saying Nike is going to implode. I'm saying Nike at its current valuation has to shoot the moon and this could stop them from doing so
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743680) |
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Date: September 10th, 2018 9:59 AM Author: rose fanboi
(Guy who expects a position to play out in 3 days)
I used a NKE short to fund an AVGO long position. Yep, great call
Bump this in 6 months and we'll see how things have shaken out
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36780336) |
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Date: September 10th, 2018 1:15 PM Author: rose fanboi
"so far there appears to be no net backlash"
https://morningconsult.com/form/nike-kaepernick-report/?
A new report from Morning Consult reveals consumer opinions of Nike have shifted rapidly since announcing their new campaign with former NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Across nearly every demographic, perceptions of Nike’s brand have fallen, including among key consumer groups.
The report features over 8,000 interviews conducted among American adults, including 1,694 interviews pre-campaign launch (8/26/18 – 9/3/18) and 5,481 interviews post-campaign launch (9/4/18 – 9/5/18). Additionally, Morning Consult conducted a study among 1,168 adults in the U.S. about Nike’s ad and the decision to choose Kaepernick as the face of the campaign.
Key Findings
Nike’s Favorability Drops by Double Digits: Before the announcement, Nike had a net +69 favorable impression among consumers, it has now declined 34 points to +35 favorable.
No Boost Among Key Demos: Among younger generations, Nike users, African Americans, and other key demographics, Nike’s favorability declined rather than improved.
Purchasing Consideration Also Down: Before the announcement, 49 percent of Americans said they were absolutely certain or very likely to buy Nike products. That figure is down to 39 percent now.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36781345) |
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Date: September 10th, 2018 1:35 PM Author: rose fanboi
Dude. It's been less than a week and I was responding to his point of no backlash.
By all means bump this in 6 months if Nike is trading at $100.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36781448)
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Date: September 10th, 2018 1:45 PM Author: rose fanboi
Did you even read my first poast?
I don't need this to tank sales. I need it to stop Nike from reaching already high sales expectations
Nike currently trades at a 72% premium on a P/E basis to the S&P 500. This is down from a 22% premium last year. To justify that they need to knock the cover off the ball.
Hitting a double when the market expects a home run and the stock will go down
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36781538) |
Date: September 17th, 2018 1:44 PM Author: Multi-colored people who are hurt
bought NKE Jan 19 puts. Only invested < 1000 so dont care too much but i expect to make money
i know it went up after Kaep announcement but its way too early to decide how this move is going to affect NKE stock
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36825774) |
Date: September 25th, 2018 4:17 PM Author: rose fanboi
Missed revenues and gross margins.
Shares down 4% to $81
Guidance on call
Guidance will be key
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36886727) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:32 PM Author: sick deep church
lol it's only -2% now $83 > $80, how mad are u?
i'm also in long/short and ur thesis is fucking pitiful. all u do is look backwards at historical multiples roflmao. dude ur no better than new constructs and those other retail spambots that talk about multiples. every shitty thesis is focused around multiples, i.e. yours.
figure out beats and misses bro. what's price doing? price is king in retail.
u guys don't even use credit card data? geolocation data? pure shit fund.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36886843) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:33 PM Author: rose fanboi
I'm not a day trader. I'm using a short NKE position to fund long positions in other names. My view was NKE risk/reward + outcome probability was skewed to the downside
I'm looking for NKE to have less market cap in a year than it does now while offsetting that with a company I bet will have a larger market cap in a year than it does now. If Nike is flat in an up market I'll take that too
Guidance is on the call, which starts at 5. Nothing matters until then really except they didn't Q2 crush numbers when they should have (World Cup benefit)
xoxo
hth
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36886867) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:34 PM Author: sick deep church
so ur pure shit, got it.
i bet ur at T3 or some other scam prop casino calling urself a HF.
stay out of retail, the big boys have data u won't believe.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36886872) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:36 PM Author: rose fanboi
Everyone has data. That data said Nike would crush. They didn't.
xoxo
hth
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36886890) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:39 PM Author: sick deep church
1. no data was flat.
2. ignore 1, they were right.
from last quarter to now, if u were tracking credit card data, stock is up from $70 to $85. Today $83.
I would suggest you look for a new PM that can teach you how HFs really work.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36886921) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:41 PM Author: rose fanboi
You have Chinese credit card data? Cool!
You overlay credit card transactions with the stock price? Do you do a regression too? Wow! Man I never thought of that!
Tip: NA sales were up 6%, not flat
xoxo
hth
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36886931)
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Date: September 25th, 2018 5:16 PM Author: sick deep church
wtf are u talking about lol
chinese credit card data wasn't that good.
are u deliberately retarded?
ur shit thesis works even less well when i copy your style
"OOOH YOU LOOKED AT HISTORICAL MULTIPLES AND DETERMINED IT WAS OVERVALUED? OOOH JUST IGNORE PRICE AND MIX! CAN U TELL ME MORE STOCKS THAT ARE 30X AND I SHOULD SHORT? SO AUTOMATED! WOW WHAT A GREAT HEDGE FUND UR AT CAN I INVEST?"
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36887212) |
Date: September 25th, 2018 4:50 PM Author: duck-like pearl shrine digit ratio
tell me not to worry about TLRY short position and it's going to crater....
good call no nke
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36886998) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 5:36 PM Author: rose fanboi
Maintained full year guide but said will be at low end
Blaming on FX
Q2 guide lower than consensus
Still have not talked Kaep
Update: completely dodged Kaep and said they got lots of social media interaction
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36887416)
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Date: September 25th, 2018 6:04 PM Author: rose fanboi
Call over
Shares down 4% to $81 AH
Management was evasive with respect to Kaepernick and China tariff impact. Soft Q2 guide likely due in part to a combination of this + FX.
Them not explicitly addressing any impact of Kaepernick to their guidance is fishy. They could have killed the controversy by stating it accelerated sales. They didn't.
Will be interesting to see how this trades in the coming days. Beat/raise momentum is gone
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36887600)
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Date: September 27th, 2018 12:37 PM Author: sick deep church
Nice lies.
Was at $83-$84 most of day.
NKE @ $85 today.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36901873) |
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Date: October 8th, 2018 12:26 PM Author: sick deep church
all retail has dropped by 10% given tariffs, so ur a net loser versus just shorting the XRT or XLY or VCR.
has nothing to do with NKE.
i'm short furniture myself, cogs are 50% from china and will get destroyed. i.e. HVT, RH.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36984526) |
Date: October 8th, 2018 12:29 PM Author: sick deep church
NKE as of 9.4.18: $80
NKE as of 10.8.18: $80
Change: 0%
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index as of 9.4.18: $181.57
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index as of 10.8.18: $170.92
Change -6%
Would've generated alpha via long NKE and short VCR.
Just because you didn't lose money due to tariffs doesn't mean you added any value. NKE was actually one of the worst names to short vs. furniture guys or apparel.
At any factor neutral fund you'd be fired already. Negative 6% alpha in 1 month and you're levered 2x so -12% rofl gtfo.
You trying to take a victory lap over dumb lolyers doesn't mean people in the industry can't see how bad of an investor you are.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36984541) |
Date: December 19th, 2018 9:23 PM Author: Hyperactive friendly grandma
shorting is a bad idea
remember the thread a month ago where all the poasters were talking up their TSLA shorts?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37436450) |
Date: December 20th, 2018 4:42 PM Author: sick deep church
Nike surges 8% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 results
https://www.investors.com/news/nike-stock-nike-earnings-q2-2019/
NIKE 2Q EPS 52C, EST. 46C; REVENUE BEATS ESTIMATE $9,374 VS. $9,169
EPS BEAT BY 13%, REVENUE BEAT BY 2%
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37442015) |
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Date: December 21st, 2018 8:59 AM Author: sick deep church
1. Revenue growth will be disappointing as the company loses share to competitors after wading headlong into politics
^ Nope. 2Q revenue $9.37 billion, estimate $9.17 billion (range $9.06 billion to $9.34 billion) above highest estimates
2. Margins will disappoint as the company will have to increase investment to drive revenue
^ Nope. 2Q gross margin +43.8%, estimate +43.5%.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37445943) |
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Date: December 21st, 2018 9:30 AM Author: sick deep church
Actually it's $74, market just opened so price is updated thanks to the BIG BEAT. So shorting at $80 means 8% returns when retail market is down ~15%.
That's pretty shitty returns on a short in this market, especially in retail which is a sector I cover. At any hedge fund with your longs down 15% and your shorts up 8% you would be fired. i.e. Drakemallard would be fired/zero bonused.
I'm up 40% from shorting Mattel in June 2018 when it was a $17.50 stock. About 20% avg on my other retail shorts.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAT?p=MAT&.tsrc=fin-srch
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37446064) |
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Date: December 21st, 2018 9:43 AM Author: rose fanboi
How's that RH short treating you?
Date: October 8th, 2018 12:26 PM
Author: imanxoxoposter
all retail has dropped by 10% given tariffs, so ur a net loser versus just shorting the XRT or XLY or VCR.
has nothing to do with NKE.
i'm short furniture myself, cogs are 50% from china and will get destroyed. i.e. HVT, RH.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37446120) |
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Date: January 28th, 2019 7:40 PM Author: sick deep church
RH was amazing short. Got in June after earnings pop, for Jun to August it was a $160 stock. Cost basis $150 for me though.
Today it's $132.61.
Meanwhile, NKE is above $80 today despite S&P down 10% since September 2018 when u made this big call.
RH just one of my furniture shorts, the rest include ETH and FLXS which are down 50%.
ETH just reported today, missed earnings again.
You lack basic logic and reasoning skills. You made this thread on the date you shorted, not me.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37680906) |
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