AN implied odds of 59% for Cubs seems just wrong considering Freeland has been a much, much better pitcher than Lester this season (who got really lucky behind one of the best defenses in the league), and considering that vs. LHP, ARenado, Story and LeMahieu can hit (although it IS outside of Coors Field...)

I'd give the implied odds like 52% Cubs over 48% rockies since they ARE playing at home, and Rockies are playing their 3rd game in 3 different time zones in 3 different nights.

Still, that +125 line seems sweet

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36939817)

Also Cubs have no bullpen since Morrow went down, and have no starters really - I don't think Lester's good at all for a 1 game playoff.

Also so much for chilling at home when you blow a division lead to the Brewers at home in a must win game

And Joe Maddon Maddoning will be their downfall - should have kept Quintana in for longer

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36939881)

Also it's kind of cold and wet in Chicago which will help keep balls in the park

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36942631)

& Rockies have a lot of decent hitters vs. LHP even outside of coors

vs. LHP:

Arenado: .368/.451/.747, 197 wRC+

Story: .326/.389/.680, 166 wRC+

LeMahieu:.330/.360/.540, 124 wRC+

Team vs LHP

Rockies: .272/.336/.462 98 wRC+

Cubs: .260/.333/.398 99 wRC+

If you adjust for COORS it's basically the same offense vs. LHPs

And starters, I'd still take Freeland on 3 days REST vs. Lester who's washed up (srsly way lower K%, way higher BB%)

Bullpen is a slight edge to CO.

Home & Travel favors CHC

I'll still take that +125 money line

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36942698)

Blackmon CF

LeMahieu 2B

Arenado 3B

Story SS

Holliday LF

Desmond 1B

Dahl RF

Iannetta C

Freeland P

Cubs

Zobrist RF

Bryant LF

Rizzo 1B

Baez SS

Almora CF

Murphy 2B

Contreras C

Bote 3B

Lester P

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36942003)

See my analysis above

Also Lester sucks dick now and ljl at Theo for thinking you can buy pitching every year

at a certain point you're gonna need Klubers, Buehlers and Flahertys and Severinos to pop out if you're not gonna trade for guys like Sale

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36943143)

Imagine the shitshow then. Death rates of geriatrics in Chicago area triples, riot in Chicago, Cubs fans kill themselves it would been 180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36943146)

they used to be a legend

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36943151)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36943157)

I literally am still triggered by games 2 and 5 last year

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36943162)

https://imgur.com/a/Agm6uBl

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36943300)

soooo, you end up growing a little older, getting a little stronger, and all of a sudden you find yourself feebly camping out underneath a ball that has all but disappeared into the air and is SCREAMING on its way back down to earth.

first time i had to catch one of them in a game it almost tore my glove off when it came back down.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36943761)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36943836)

(also switch Cubs w/ pre -04 sox and same q)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36943880)

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=100&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d&page=2_50

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36943989)

huge steal.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36944130)

Baseball is so fucking gay

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36944715)

But when you watch it on replay - you see that it's unambiguous - Baez straight up runs into infielder and wraps up aranatto preventing a throw to first. Aranatto fucked up big time because he laughed along and made the whole thing look so innocent and mutual.

If Aranatto had been like wtf get off me and tried to make a throw but fail b/c he's wrapped up - then without a doubt Umps would've penalized cubs there and baez specifically. I suppose it's not a huge deal now because Rockies got cout of the inning - but it's one of a few questionable calls by the umps tonight favoring the home team with the gigantic fanbase market (but there was one important strike call favoring rockies, but calls on field there were I think 3 wtf calls - the most notable a challenge on a double play turned or maybe just a force at second that was so obviously fucking safe it's baffling how they came back with an out call.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4095279&forum_id=2#36944928)