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Charles XII, how MAF are you about the midterm election?

...
dashing sick library
  11/12/18
I'm not, really. Things went better than I thought they woul...
Aphrodisiac bistre address
  11/12/18
Dems win around 40 House seats, GOP only gains 2 Senate seat...
dashing sick library
  11/12/18
So we gained in the Senate, when just a few months ago there...
Aphrodisiac bistre address
  11/12/18
No; Nate Silver never had Dems at above a 20% chance of winn...
dashing sick library
  11/12/18
LOL at WV. Manchin is not a typical Dem candidate.
Marvelous frozen legal warrant property
  11/12/18
It was around 30 percent until the end of September for all ...
cheese-eating concupiscible affirmative action
  11/12/18
I was going off of PredictIt, but even if you're using 538, ...
Aphrodisiac bistre address
  11/12/18
I still fail to see how it's a great victory for GOP. It's ...
Frum out-of-control jewess
  11/12/18
I didn't say "a great victory." I said things went...
Aphrodisiac bistre address
  11/12/18
MT, WV? Yfwgi
Passionate orchid potus church
  11/12/18
that pumo and his alts have been spamming this all week
nubile sneaky criminal area
  11/12/18
if shitlibs winning one half of one third of our govt is wha...
charismatic filthy new version
  11/12/18
It's literally JJC. lol at his sad life.
Yellow Corner
  11/12/18
What are Trumps re-elect odds right now in your estimation? ...
disrespectful stirring piazza water buffalo
  11/12/18
I think Trump will lose re-election. 1. Economy will be ...
dashing sick library
  11/12/18
I asked Charles. We all know what you think, and you didn't...
disrespectful stirring piazza water buffalo
  11/12/18
I don't think Democrats should go full in on minority candid...
Frum out-of-control jewess
  11/12/18
That makes sense, similar to how those states swung violentl...
Aphrodisiac bistre address
  11/12/18
DeSantis won by just 0.4%, and the Georgia governors race wa...
dashing sick library
  11/12/18
Who even knows whether Florida is a sure thing!
Marvelous frozen legal warrant property
  11/12/18
GOP also lost 7 governorships and 450 state legislative seat...
Frum out-of-control jewess
  11/12/18
Doesn't redistricting happen after the 2020 elections? Ed...
lemon state sex offender
  11/12/18
yes but most of those governorships are 4 year terms, so who...
Frum out-of-control jewess
  11/12/18
I see the flipped chambers as: New Hampshire (both) Colo...
cheese-eating concupiscible affirmative action
  11/12/18
Seems like the biggest impact will be in NY where they could...
Frum out-of-control jewess
  11/12/18
NY now has a commission for redistricting. NY will also like...
cheese-eating concupiscible affirmative action
  11/12/18
Which individual races most surprised you?
dashing sick library
  11/12/18
Florida Gov. Texas Senate (margin not outcome) Virgini...
Frum out-of-control jewess
  11/12/18
great list. aside from FL governor, all the surprises went i...
dashing sick library
  11/12/18
So 80% of this thread is just JJC talking to himself? Lol
bisexual mewling tattoo stain
  11/12/18
Republicans avoided the worst possible outcome and conturds ...
Copper box office
  11/12/18
LOL
sapphire gaping
  11/12/18
...
bisexual mewling tattoo stain
  11/12/18
...
dashing sick library
  11/12/18


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Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:02 PM
Author: dashing sick library



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217693)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:06 PM
Author: Aphrodisiac bistre address

I'm not, really. Things went better than I thought they would.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217714)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:08 PM
Author: dashing sick library

Dems win around 40 House seats, GOP only gains 2 Senate seats despite the best Senate map imaginable, all in the backdrop of a booming economy and no foreign policy crisis. LJL.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217726)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:20 PM
Author: Aphrodisiac bistre address

So we gained in the Senate, when just a few months ago there was about a 30% chance we'd straight-up LOSE the Senate?

Nope, I'm feeling pretty good.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217822)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:24 PM
Author: dashing sick library

No; Nate Silver never had Dems at above a 20% chance of winning the Senate. The GOP underperformed; they should have won AZ, MT, WV. +2 is terrible.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217847)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:26 PM
Author: Marvelous frozen legal warrant property

LOL at WV. Manchin is not a typical Dem candidate.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217869)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:31 PM
Author: cheese-eating concupiscible affirmative action

It was around 30 percent until the end of September for all three of his models.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217912)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:39 PM
Author: Aphrodisiac bistre address

I was going off of PredictIt, but even if you're using 538, the GOP overperformed, as he gave them an average gain of only half a seat.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217964)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:45 PM
Author: Frum out-of-control jewess

I still fail to see how it's a great victory for GOP. It's not like the GOP won any blue states in the senate and they only won one purple state (Florida). Democrats won a lot of definite red states (WV, MT, OH) and a lot of purple states (MN, WI, MI, AZ, NV, ME). They have them locked in for 6 more years and can go on offense next cycle when states like ME, CO, AZ will be up.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218010)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 5:00 PM
Author: Aphrodisiac bistre address

I didn't say "a great victory." I said things went better than I thought they would. I thought we'd get killed, honestly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218109)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:43 PM
Author: Passionate orchid potus church

MT, WV? Yfwgi

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217987)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:24 PM
Author: nubile sneaky criminal area

that pumo and his alts have been spamming this all week

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217849)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:26 PM
Author: charismatic filthy new version

if shitlibs winning one half of one third of our govt is what it takes to get them out of the shadows and show america their TRUE agenda I think its a good silver lining. Its not like trump was passing anything in the gop congress and probably better off in the long run that he retired a lot of the cucks. libs are also great at shooting themselves in the foot.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217872)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:44 PM
Author: Yellow Corner

It's literally JJC. lol at his sad life.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218000)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:26 PM
Author: disrespectful stirring piazza water buffalo

What are Trumps re-elect odds right now in your estimation? And related to that, what's your handicapping of the Dem field of potential opponents?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217871)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:40 PM
Author: dashing sick library

I think Trump will lose re-election.

1. Economy will be weaker in 2020 than it is now. We are overheating; the current growth trajectory is not sustainable, and the Fed will continue raising rates to kill inflation. And the tariffs will hammer the economy and raise prices.

2. Dems will nominate a minority, so minority and youth turnout in 2020 will be extremely high. Look at how pumped up the Dem base was this year. In 2020 they will be even more pumped due to their hatred of Trump.

3. GOP will continue to lose even more college-educated suburban whites. They may do better with minorities than in 2016, but it's not enough to compensate for the drop in the suburbs.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217967)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:41 PM
Author: disrespectful stirring piazza water buffalo

I asked Charles. We all know what you think, and you didn't even answer my questions.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217978)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:42 PM
Author: Frum out-of-control jewess

I don't think Democrats should go full in on minority candidacy, look what happened in Georgia and Florida. The quiet story of the night is how Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa all swung massively back to Democrats. Those 4 states are enough right there.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217984)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 5:07 PM
Author: Aphrodisiac bistre address

That makes sense, similar to how those states swung violently against Democrats in 2010 and subsequently made Mitt Romney president in 2012.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218164)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 6:04 PM
Author: dashing sick library

DeSantis won by just 0.4%, and the Georgia governors race was the closest in the state's history. Kemp beat a black female socialist by just 1.6% and got crushed in the Atlanta suburbs, which are traditionally GOP.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218516)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:22 PM
Author: Marvelous frozen legal warrant property

Who even knows whether Florida is a sure thing!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217844)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:41 PM
Author: Frum out-of-control jewess

GOP also lost 7 governorships and 450 state legislative seats, flipping numerous chambers right before 2020 redistricting.

GOP positives = will be able to get Judges through

Dem positives = will be able to gerrymander and consolidate control in the house for next 10 years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217976)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:43 PM
Author: lemon state sex offender

Doesn't redistricting happen after the 2020 elections?

Edit: yes. It's done in 2022

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217989)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:46 PM
Author: Frum out-of-control jewess

yes but most of those governorships are 4 year terms, so whoever is elected now will preside over things.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218013)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:50 PM
Author: cheese-eating concupiscible affirmative action

I see the flipped chambers as:

New Hampshire (both)

Colorado (senate - dems control both now)

Connecticut (senate - dems control both now)

Minnesota (house - gop controls senate)

Maine (senate - dems control both now)

And presumtively there will be a dem leader in the NY senate, although they nominally had a majority before.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218047)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:54 PM
Author: Frum out-of-control jewess

Seems like the biggest impact will be in NY where they could gerrymander 2-3 Republicans out.

The rest will probably be minimal impact.

I think the bigger impact will be in states that are currently gerrymandered but where GOP no longer has power to gerrymander again (MI, WI, NC, VA).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218070)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:59 PM
Author: cheese-eating concupiscible affirmative action

NY now has a commission for redistricting. NY will also likely lose a seat in the house.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218098)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:08 PM
Author: dashing sick library

Which individual races most surprised you?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217730)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:47 PM
Author: Frum out-of-control jewess

Florida Gov.

Texas Senate (margin not outcome)

Virginia 2

Oklahoma City

South Carolina Charleston district

NY-11 (Staten Island)

NJ-3

NY-22



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218027)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 6:05 PM
Author: dashing sick library

great list. aside from FL governor, all the surprises went in the favor of Democrats.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218526)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 6:07 PM
Author: bisexual mewling tattoo stain

So 80% of this thread is just JJC talking to himself? Lol

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218534)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 6:09 PM
Author: Copper box office

Republicans avoided the worst possible outcome and conturds now framing it as 'overperforming'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218546)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 9:01 PM
Author: sapphire gaping

LOL

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37219776)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 9:41 PM
Author: bisexual mewling tattoo stain



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37220137)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 9:00 PM
Author: dashing sick library



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37219766)