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Charles XII, how MAF are you about the midterm election?

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Nudist concupiscible menage place of business
  11/12/18
I'm not, really. Things went better than I thought they woul...
bronze lodge
  11/12/18
Dems win around 40 House seats, GOP only gains 2 Senate seat...
Nudist concupiscible menage place of business
  11/12/18
So we gained in the Senate, when just a few months ago there...
bronze lodge
  11/12/18
No; Nate Silver never had Dems at above a 20% chance of winn...
Nudist concupiscible menage place of business
  11/12/18
LOL at WV. Manchin is not a typical Dem candidate.
Henna motley skinny woman
  11/12/18
It was around 30 percent until the end of September for all ...
sticky purple sneaky criminal
  11/12/18
I was going off of PredictIt, but even if you're using 538, ...
bronze lodge
  11/12/18
I still fail to see how it's a great victory for GOP. It's ...
Rebellious beady-eyed wrinkle
  11/12/18
I didn't say "a great victory." I said things went...
bronze lodge
  11/12/18
MT, WV? Yfwgi
Alcoholic Up-to-no-good Lay Internal Respiration
  11/12/18
that pumo and his alts have been spamming this all week
smoky splenetic stage
  11/12/18
if shitlibs winning one half of one third of our govt is wha...
razzle-dazzle mood
  11/12/18
It's literally JJC. lol at his sad life.
garnet hospital queen of the night
  11/12/18
What are Trumps re-elect odds right now in your estimation? ...
Elite crawly step-uncle's house sex offender
  11/12/18
I think Trump will lose re-election. 1. Economy will be ...
Nudist concupiscible menage place of business
  11/12/18
I asked Charles. We all know what you think, and you didn't...
Elite crawly step-uncle's house sex offender
  11/12/18
I don't think Democrats should go full in on minority candid...
Rebellious beady-eyed wrinkle
  11/12/18
That makes sense, similar to how those states swung violentl...
bronze lodge
  11/12/18
DeSantis won by just 0.4%, and the Georgia governors race wa...
Nudist concupiscible menage place of business
  11/12/18
Who even knows whether Florida is a sure thing!
Henna motley skinny woman
  11/12/18
GOP also lost 7 governorships and 450 state legislative seat...
Rebellious beady-eyed wrinkle
  11/12/18
Doesn't redistricting happen after the 2020 elections? Ed...
Peach Twisted Nursing Home Prole
  11/12/18
yes but most of those governorships are 4 year terms, so who...
Rebellious beady-eyed wrinkle
  11/12/18
I see the flipped chambers as: New Hampshire (both) Colo...
sticky purple sneaky criminal
  11/12/18
Seems like the biggest impact will be in NY where they could...
Rebellious beady-eyed wrinkle
  11/12/18
NY now has a commission for redistricting. NY will also like...
sticky purple sneaky criminal
  11/12/18
Which individual races most surprised you?
Nudist concupiscible menage place of business
  11/12/18
Florida Gov. Texas Senate (margin not outcome) Virgini...
Rebellious beady-eyed wrinkle
  11/12/18
great list. aside from FL governor, all the surprises went i...
Nudist concupiscible menage place of business
  11/12/18
So 80% of this thread is just JJC talking to himself? Lol
deep school cafeteria
  11/12/18
Republicans avoided the worst possible outcome and conturds ...
Cowardly histrionic death wish
  11/12/18
LOL
Silver big personal credit line
  11/12/18
...
deep school cafeteria
  11/12/18
...
Nudist concupiscible menage place of business
  11/12/18


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Date: November 12th, 2018 4:02 PM
Author: Nudist concupiscible menage place of business



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217693)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:06 PM
Author: bronze lodge

I'm not, really. Things went better than I thought they would.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217714)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:08 PM
Author: Nudist concupiscible menage place of business

Dems win around 40 House seats, GOP only gains 2 Senate seats despite the best Senate map imaginable, all in the backdrop of a booming economy and no foreign policy crisis. LJL.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217726)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:20 PM
Author: bronze lodge

So we gained in the Senate, when just a few months ago there was about a 30% chance we'd straight-up LOSE the Senate?

Nope, I'm feeling pretty good.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217822)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:24 PM
Author: Nudist concupiscible menage place of business

No; Nate Silver never had Dems at above a 20% chance of winning the Senate. The GOP underperformed; they should have won AZ, MT, WV. +2 is terrible.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217847)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:26 PM
Author: Henna motley skinny woman

LOL at WV. Manchin is not a typical Dem candidate.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217869)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:31 PM
Author: sticky purple sneaky criminal

It was around 30 percent until the end of September for all three of his models.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217912)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:39 PM
Author: bronze lodge

I was going off of PredictIt, but even if you're using 538, the GOP overperformed, as he gave them an average gain of only half a seat.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217964)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:45 PM
Author: Rebellious beady-eyed wrinkle

I still fail to see how it's a great victory for GOP. It's not like the GOP won any blue states in the senate and they only won one purple state (Florida). Democrats won a lot of definite red states (WV, MT, OH) and a lot of purple states (MN, WI, MI, AZ, NV, ME). They have them locked in for 6 more years and can go on offense next cycle when states like ME, CO, AZ will be up.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218010)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 5:00 PM
Author: bronze lodge

I didn't say "a great victory." I said things went better than I thought they would. I thought we'd get killed, honestly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218109)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:43 PM
Author: Alcoholic Up-to-no-good Lay Internal Respiration

MT, WV? Yfwgi

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217987)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:24 PM
Author: smoky splenetic stage

that pumo and his alts have been spamming this all week

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217849)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:26 PM
Author: razzle-dazzle mood

if shitlibs winning one half of one third of our govt is what it takes to get them out of the shadows and show america their TRUE agenda I think its a good silver lining. Its not like trump was passing anything in the gop congress and probably better off in the long run that he retired a lot of the cucks. libs are also great at shooting themselves in the foot.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217872)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:44 PM
Author: garnet hospital queen of the night

It's literally JJC. lol at his sad life.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218000)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:26 PM
Author: Elite crawly step-uncle's house sex offender

What are Trumps re-elect odds right now in your estimation? And related to that, what's your handicapping of the Dem field of potential opponents?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217871)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:40 PM
Author: Nudist concupiscible menage place of business

I think Trump will lose re-election.

1. Economy will be weaker in 2020 than it is now. We are overheating; the current growth trajectory is not sustainable, and the Fed will continue raising rates to kill inflation. And the tariffs will hammer the economy and raise prices.

2. Dems will nominate a minority, so minority and youth turnout in 2020 will be extremely high. Look at how pumped up the Dem base was this year. In 2020 they will be even more pumped due to their hatred of Trump.

3. GOP will continue to lose even more college-educated suburban whites. They may do better with minorities than in 2016, but it's not enough to compensate for the drop in the suburbs.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217967)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:41 PM
Author: Elite crawly step-uncle's house sex offender

I asked Charles. We all know what you think, and you didn't even answer my questions.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217978)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:42 PM
Author: Rebellious beady-eyed wrinkle

I don't think Democrats should go full in on minority candidacy, look what happened in Georgia and Florida. The quiet story of the night is how Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa all swung massively back to Democrats. Those 4 states are enough right there.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217984)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 5:07 PM
Author: bronze lodge

That makes sense, similar to how those states swung violently against Democrats in 2010 and subsequently made Mitt Romney president in 2012.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218164)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 6:04 PM
Author: Nudist concupiscible menage place of business

DeSantis won by just 0.4%, and the Georgia governors race was the closest in the state's history. Kemp beat a black female socialist by just 1.6% and got crushed in the Atlanta suburbs, which are traditionally GOP.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218516)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:22 PM
Author: Henna motley skinny woman

Who even knows whether Florida is a sure thing!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217844)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:41 PM
Author: Rebellious beady-eyed wrinkle

GOP also lost 7 governorships and 450 state legislative seats, flipping numerous chambers right before 2020 redistricting.

GOP positives = will be able to get Judges through

Dem positives = will be able to gerrymander and consolidate control in the house for next 10 years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217976)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:43 PM
Author: Peach Twisted Nursing Home Prole

Doesn't redistricting happen after the 2020 elections?

Edit: yes. It's done in 2022

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217989)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:46 PM
Author: Rebellious beady-eyed wrinkle

yes but most of those governorships are 4 year terms, so whoever is elected now will preside over things.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218013)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:50 PM
Author: sticky purple sneaky criminal

I see the flipped chambers as:

New Hampshire (both)

Colorado (senate - dems control both now)

Connecticut (senate - dems control both now)

Minnesota (house - gop controls senate)

Maine (senate - dems control both now)

And presumtively there will be a dem leader in the NY senate, although they nominally had a majority before.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218047)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:54 PM
Author: Rebellious beady-eyed wrinkle

Seems like the biggest impact will be in NY where they could gerrymander 2-3 Republicans out.

The rest will probably be minimal impact.

I think the bigger impact will be in states that are currently gerrymandered but where GOP no longer has power to gerrymander again (MI, WI, NC, VA).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218070)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:59 PM
Author: sticky purple sneaky criminal

NY now has a commission for redistricting. NY will also likely lose a seat in the house.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218098)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:08 PM
Author: Nudist concupiscible menage place of business

Which individual races most surprised you?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37217730)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 4:47 PM
Author: Rebellious beady-eyed wrinkle

Florida Gov.

Texas Senate (margin not outcome)

Virginia 2

Oklahoma City

South Carolina Charleston district

NY-11 (Staten Island)

NJ-3

NY-22



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218027)



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Date: November 12th, 2018 6:05 PM
Author: Nudist concupiscible menage place of business

great list. aside from FL governor, all the surprises went in the favor of Democrats.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218526)



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Date: November 12th, 2018 6:07 PM
Author: deep school cafeteria

So 80% of this thread is just JJC talking to himself? Lol

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218534)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 6:09 PM
Author: Cowardly histrionic death wish

Republicans avoided the worst possible outcome and conturds now framing it as 'overperforming'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37218546)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 9:01 PM
Author: Silver big personal credit line

LOL

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37219776)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 9:41 PM
Author: deep school cafeteria



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37220137)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 12th, 2018 9:00 PM
Author: Nudist concupiscible menage place of business



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4131210&forum_id=2#37219766)