CNN airs clip showing Democratic stronghold in MN turning heavily towards Trump
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Date: September 20th, 2019 12:26 PM Author: disgusting casino gaping
Also of note:
"He votes Democrat for state races, but supports Donald Trump"
Don't hinge your hopes on the results of 2018....
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4347506&forum_id=2#38861980) |
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Date: September 20th, 2019 12:44 PM Author: disgusting casino gaping
Hillary won Minnesota by 45k votes.
The video says that town has 4500 miners.
That's 10% of the gap in one tiny town, not including spouses.
HTH.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4347506&forum_id=2#38862091) |
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Date: September 20th, 2019 1:42 PM Author: bearded exhilarant goyim pervert
I'm very nervous about the GOP's shrinking base due to Trump's weakness with college educated white suburban voters. But having said that, Trump actually has a lot of upside.
The conventional narrative on 2020 is that Trump will most likely lose because he won PA/MI/WI by 77K votes combined while Hillary got 600K fewer votes than Obama 2012 in those states. That's factually accurate, but that argument makes two key assumptions that I don't think are right: 1) Trump hit his ceiling in 2016, and 2) Obama 2012 is the "normal" baseline of turnout, meaning that Hillary 2016 was an anomaly for the Dems.
Obama, whether you like or hate his policies, was a likable guy, talented politician, a once in a lifetime candidate. His 2012 turnout was insane, so the notion that it's a "normal" baseline is a tough assumption. I'm also not convinced that Hillary "underperformed." She actually did better than Obama in the mega cities and their suburbs and improved dramatically with college whites in the suburbs. Where she fell short was in the rural, exurbs, and less educated suburbs. In 2016, Trump was seen as a total wildcard, an existential threat who could fuck up the economy and start WWIII, with no track record of policy achievements. This uncertainty scared the crap out of many Romney voters. If things are stable in 2020, this dynamic will be different, and third party candidates will get a lower % of votes than last time.
Also, Trump is nowhere close to hitting his ceiling with WWC. The raw turnout of WWC in 2016 was on par with 2004; Trump just got a much higher % of them than Bush did that year. Trump has the potential to re-align the WWC and turn them out in even larger numbers in 2020. In 2018, their turnout was very low while Dem turnout was insane. It's totally possible that both Trump and the Dem get massive turnout so hard to say what will happen for sure.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4347506&forum_id=2#38862426) |
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