86% of Chinese with corona went undetected
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: March 19th, 2020 5:18 PM Author: Erotic Geriatric Stead Dragon
so real percentage is like:
~5% require hospitalization (not 20%)
~0.5% death rate?
what % of the 5% that require hospitalization require critical care?
the problem here is that because its infectious and we have no immunity most of the population will be infected if we dont do anything
so that 5% is impossible to deal with when its 5% of say 50M
with regular flu at any time maybe only a few million have it and only a very small percentage of that infected population require hospitalization
so it comes down 0.5% of 5M (regular flu) vs 5% of 50M that require hospitalization for say a 2 week period near the peak?
can we handle 2.5M hospitalizations and 250K ICU critical cases at a given time?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810470) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:05 PM Author: Concupiscible Buck-toothed Center Fortuitous Meteor
https://twitter.com/SheenaGreitens/status/1240646034151198721?s=20
GDP figures are 'man-made' and therefore unreliable, [then-executive vice premier] Li [Keqiang] said. When evaluating Liaoning's economy, he focuses on three figures:
I) electricity consumption, which was up 10 per cent in Liaoning last year;
2) volume of rail cargo, which is fairly accurate because fees are charged for each unit of weight; and
3) amount of loans disbursed, which also tends to be accurate given the interest fees charged.
By looking at these three figures, Li said he can measure with relative accuracy the speed of economic growth. All other figures, especially GDP statistics, are 'for reference only,' he said smiling.
Wikileaks, Cable 07BEIJINGl760, 15 March 2007
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810796) |
Date: March 19th, 2020 6:05 PM Author: disgusting garrison telephone
we already knew that people under 60 are largely unaffected or only affected w/ minor illness, so it makes sense that lots of people would not show up as documented hospital cases.
the mortality of people over 60 being like 10x higher than flu mortality has been the alarming concern.
if it's rampaging thru the population undetected, but killing 10% of people >60, it's still going to be a huge bloodbath.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810794) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:27 PM Author: disgusting garrison telephone
yeah, i keep coming back to the one obv undeniable 'data point', which is the raw body count. looking at North Italy : what happens when we scale North Italy's experience to the whole country, all of EU, all of US, etc.
they went from 0 to 5K dead in a few weeks, in a small area with a limited exposure. that's potentially a big pile of bodies if that experience is duplicated across the world.
but it's confusing, because Germany/South Korea are not having as many deaths, so who knows wtf is going on.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810962) |
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