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The number of virus Deaths is about to explode
Poast new message in this thread
Date: April 3rd, 2020 2:48 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate Feeling real pessimistic looking at the latest numbers.
The past three full days have seen the most number of new cases (24,742; 26,473; 29,874) and the number of daily deaths (912, 1012, 968). Even if those numbers represent a plateau, which is debatable and doesn't appear to be the case so far today, the next two weeks are going to be extremely deadly.
Go back to March 30, the previous high and you had ONLY 20,297 new cases and ONLY 558 deaths.
But since it takes people time to die, you can go back seven days from that and see that on March 23 we had only 10,189 cases and a mere 141 deaths.
So if 10k new cases per day translates into nearly 1000 deaths a week later, that suggests that one week from now nearly 3000 people will be dying every single day.
And this will happen over the entire month of April. That puts the very likely range of deaths for the Month of April between 45,000 and 90,000 (I'm being optimistic). For the it’s just the flu bros, that’s an entire bad flu season in one month.
So Trump's low end 100k is a virtual certainty and the 240k will likely be hit within months.
All in all, very pessimistic to see so many new cases coming in two weeks after the lockdowns started. We will likely look back at March as the good ol' days. This doesn't even factor in the likelihood that hospitals will have to start rationing care to those most likely to survive. |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Insanely creepy sienna site France went up crazy in deaths the last 2 days. Out of nowhere. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932745) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 2:59 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate Yeah, the virus is patient. It infects quickly and kills slowly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932758) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:34 PM Author: Deep Locale Those are just nursing home deaths over several weeks that france did not count but WHO counts. Actual deaths in france and italy plateaued (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933988) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 10:54 AM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate link? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39938486) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:12 PM Author: Motley Crackhouse There is zero meaningful correlation between cases at a point in time and deaths later because the number of cases on a given date is meaningless because it is based off positive tests and tests were limited. We are not even close to having tested 1% of the population. We are past testing being useful information. We have failed at least as far as any real help in understanding. The only use now is if there is a treatment available or we can actually quarantine. Perhaps marginally, percent positive is helpful, but if you are only giving them to the most sick, it is likewise useless. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932867) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:15 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate Okay, but now imagine you represent Virusbad and are deposing Fraudvirus. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932891) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:19 PM Author: Motley Crackhouse I’d hire an expert to make up numbers, fraudvirus would do the same, and neither would concede an inch.
The only number that really matters now is excess deaths. That’s the equivalent of year over year EBITDA or whatever metric you prefer. |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:04 PM Author: Lavender Electric Base and compare against excess deaths from isolation and unemployment, which unfortunately will for the most part occur 20-40 years from now when we are older but have 6 months knocked off all of our lifespans. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933748) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 10:35 PM Author: Fishy startling hominid queen of the night cr, depressing thought but I get this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39936410) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 10:49 AM Author: appetizing chest-beating box office http://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479024&mc=51&forum_id=2 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39938462) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:28 PM Author: Disrespectful lodge elastic band Testing is far more numerous than it was several weeks ago. Even then, the vast majority of those tested come up negative. Although confirmed cases underrepresent the true number of infected, it no longer seems like that true number is several factors above lab tested cases
I suspect the sad reality is that only a small fraction of the population is infected, but this virus hits like a mack truck and spreads like wildfire. It will kill millions if not mitigated |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:33 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate Good point. We've now tested 1.268 million people and 1.028 were negative.
Best case for fraudvirusmos is that 20 percent of the population has the bug. |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:14 PM Author: Motley Crackhouse Or the tests are shit (they are). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933811) |
Date: April 3rd, 2020 2:49 PM Author: Navy Faggot Firefighter Home EVERYBODY DANCE (LIKE BERNIE) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932699) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 2:50 PM Author: Big-titted stimulating orchestra pit kitty cat as testing opened up i would assume the average severity of a confirmed case dropped so current mortalities/confirmed cases 1 week ago should also drop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932705) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 2:53 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate Actually, in most places testing has not opened up. Since we’re no longer trying containment we’re not testing the asymptomatic or mildly sick anymore. About 100,000 tests get processed every day and the percentage of those coming back positive has been steadily increasing from the mid-teens to 25 percent positive. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932723) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 2:54 PM Author: Big-titted stimulating orchestra pit kitty cat FUCK (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932729) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:20 PM Author: Motley Crackhouse That it is 25% when we are testing only the sick, that is actually encouraging. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932931) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 2:50 PM Author: very tactful church building All the Math MFEs in the world and there isnt a decent formula about how many days to go back (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932706) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:06 PM Author: Motley Crackhouse Because the data is absolute junk when it’s available and, in many cases, not available at all. And where it is available, as crap as it is, it is distorted by actions of those involved. For example, early on, almost no one was being sent home to self-care so hospital admissions where higher related to those infected and symptomatic than they are now where everyone gets sent home unless they are very ill. Likewise, no one can agree on what counts as a COVID-19 death.
What’s the distribution of time between symptoms and death? Or even just an average. Why isn’t this being reported?
Why is there no random sampling of the population for infection?
Most significantly, while deaths are probably the only helpful metric, as noted above, what counts as a death (along with the level of treatment available) distorts this number.
The key metric we should track is excess deaths. That is, how many more people died this year than last (or some basic formula). This would show the true harm and also would track when things start to level off.
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:07 PM Author: very tactful church building jkushner@whitehouse.gov (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932827) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:10 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932849) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:16 PM Author: aphrodisiac lemon digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932898) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:11 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate Lol at trying to do a real time excess deaths calculation.
(I'm not disagreeing with you.) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:25 PM Author: Motley Crackhouse Even back of the envelope it is helpful.
9000 people died in 2020 on this day. It was 7900 in 2019.
And yes, day to day there will be variation, but week to week, and month to month, it’s gets much more meaningful and smooths out the bumps (and also accounts for lives saved from car accidents, flu that was averted by the lockdown, bump in suicides etc.). |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:25 PM Author: khaki cuck Yea but society has ground to a halt. There's going to be much fewer murders, DUIs, accidents... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933912) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 10:13 AM Author: swashbuckling mexican Cr Coronavirus is saving lives (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39938331) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 10:37 AM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate Murders could go either way in a week or two (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39938422) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:16 PM Author: Adventurous nudist electric furnace Agreed. I am completely floored by the inability of the CDC and higher medicine to gather and disseminate even the most basic data this far into the pandemic.
"Why is there no random sampling of the population for infection?"
lol, seriously. What the fuck!? This isn't hard stuff. |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:19 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate Designing a random sample in the middle of the outbreak is not possible.
And we have bad data because federalism, bro. |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:21 PM Author: Motley Crackhouse Disagree with the former, agree with the latter. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932940) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:24 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate You'd have to test sizeable populations in dozens of states/regions. A single unknown hotspot could throw everything off. Do you exclude known cases?
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:31 PM Author: Motley Crackhouse There are very sophisticated models for this for advertising, political polls, etc.
I agree it won’t be perfect, but if we took a randomized sample of 10k, it would be at the very least interesting. At 100k, if it comes back with a material amount of positives, it seems extraordinarily useful. |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:35 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate See above. We have tested 1.268 million. 1.029 million were negative.
So at best 20 percent of the country has the vid. |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:10 PM Author: Fear-inspiring Cruise Ship Halford do u even statistics at all bro (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933795) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:12 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate Problem with the sample size? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933797) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:15 PM Author: Motley Crackhouse Problem with the sample.
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:40 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate Wouldn’t this sample be skewed toward people with the virus? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39934028) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 6:37 PM Author: Adventurous nudist electric furnace With corona, I think it's very unlikely that the infection rate is 20% or more among the gen population. That being said your analysis could be wrong because,
1) you could have a virus with a very high R0 and low fatality and hospitalization rate where the infection rate is the same or higher among gen pop versus those with symptoms. Those with bad symptoms (from any disease) quickly self-isolate and stay away from everyone while those without symptoms go on their happy way spreading it everywhere.
2) Your 20% number is based on a bunch of tests that were done in the past. That percentage has been increasing since last month when it was 10%. Not that the percentage necessarily means anything anyway. |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:25 PM Author: very tactful church building This poll of 300 likely Democratic voters indicates with 99% certainty that Biden will win Wisconsin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932964) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 2:51 PM Author: Navy Faggot Firefighter Home No way around it, really. Trump is doing a great job. It would be much worse without him. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932710) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate Yeah, many more boomers would have lived. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932746) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 2:58 PM Author: irate library Hi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932753) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:04 PM Author: Odious chartreuse ladyboy travel guidebook Everything has been pointing to increasing cases and deaths over the next month and has been for a month. This is not news but glad you discovered what others have been saying for weeks. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932797) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:06 PM Author: very tactful church building (nasally voiced gunner in 1L lecture) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932819) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:08 PM Author: bonkers white alpha Trump assured us zero cases soon and gone by april. Fyi. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932828) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:08 PM Author: umber deer antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932830) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:08 PM Author: peach wonderful headpube institution how are there this many ppl dying of the sniffles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932831) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:18 PM Author: fragrant police squad They're old, don't have type O blood, don't use nicotine and have had flu shots (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932918) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:19 PM Author: haunting beady-eyed degenerate anthing further on bloodtype angle? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932926) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:21 PM Author: Big-titted stimulating orchestra pit kitty cat A type is the worst (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932941) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:25 PM Author: fragrant police squad I'm half joking here, except the old people part
Non peer reviewed and relatively small sample but here you go:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2
Seen similar small sample studies on the nicotine and non flu shot angles, you can google those |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:20 PM Author: Adventurous nudist electric furnace To be fair, it took longer than 2 weeks into Italy's (and I think China's) shutdown before new cases started levelling off and coming down. Also, certain places that shutdown early (Seattle and LA) are seeing that plateauing in new cases. I'm not sure what conclusions we can draw from a previous new cases/new deaths ratio. We've gone back and forth over expanded and restricted testing that I think it's a completely meaningless stat at this point. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932933) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:25 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate California still has 50k tests on back order, which based on their ratio suggests 20k yet to be confirmed cases.
L.A. has the dumbest mayor in the country, so no chance they're handling this well. |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:35 PM Author: sadistic lascivious mad cow disease California has been shut down for several weeks now. The backlog of testing is meaningless because the only thing that is truly measurable is the deaths. And right now California's deaths are very low. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933042) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:41 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate You can't classify the death as Coronavirus until you get the test results. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933100) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:21 PM Author: Razzle buck-toothed point partner and STILL not one healthy white has been pwned
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:17 PM Author: Motley Crackhouse I have found three people. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933841) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:23 PM Author: Brindle autistic location new cases is nonsense. it mainly measures prevalence of people who get tested rather than spread of the disease. the "death rate" will keep decreasing as the new cases keeps increasing because there are more and more people with mild symptoms. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932946) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:27 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate As discussed, many states have stopped testing asymptomatic or mild cases. So the population being tested is already more sick than the average person who gets the bug. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39932971) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:36 PM Author: obsidian school dragon Are you saying we're TWO | WEEKS | AWAY (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933053) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:41 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate one week (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933106) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:52 PM Author: Arousing Snowy Regret Coffee Pot if we don't have 3,000 deaths/day in a week, will you promise to add one more death to the total by killing urself (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933177) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 3:54 PM Author: blathering topaz organic girlfriend Math checks out. One trillion deaths by Halloween. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933193) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:02 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate there's no math (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933737) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:03 PM Author: Irradiated goyim hell Trumpmos? Explain how he let US have the worst outbreak of boomerflu in the world despite having 2 months notice. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933739) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:05 PM Author: Lavender Electric Base Sup Xi? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933754) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:06 PM Author: hyperactive soul-stirring trump supporter new version Thanks Cuomo! https://mobile.twitter.com/rlwaa/status/1244164458383097856 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933759) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 6:06 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate That's on DeBlasio. She's asking Cuomo for help. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39934199) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:06 PM Author: mildly autistic abusive internal respiration athletic conference Europe has way more cases and deaths and we can’t weld people in like Asia. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933760) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:12 PM Author: Disturbing Ivory Spot deaths/million
San Marino 245 30 21 194 15 7,221 884 Italy 119,827 +4,585 14,681 +766 19,758 85,388 4,068 1,982 243 Spain 119,199 +7,134 11,198 +850 30,513 77,488 6,416 2,549 240 Andorra 439 +11 16 +1 16 407 12 5,682 207 France 64,338 +5,233 6,507 +1,120 14,008 43,823 6,662 986 100 Belgium 16,770 +1,422 1,143 +132 2,872 12,755 1,205 1,447 99 Netherlands 15,723 +1,026 1,487 +148 250 13,986 1,324 918 87 Switzerland 19,606 +779 591 +55 4,846 14,169 348 2,265 68 UK 38,168 +4,450 3,605 +684 135 34,428 163 562 53 Luxembourg 2,612 +125 31 +1 500 2,081 33 4,173 50 Sint Maarten 23 +5 2 +1 6 15 536 47 Iran 53,183 +2,715 3,294 +134 17,935 31,954 4,035 633 39 Sweden 6,131 +563 358 +50 205 5,568 469 607 35 Saint Martin 22 1 2 19 569 26 Monaco 64 +4 1 3 60 2 1,631 25 Portugal 9,886 +852 246 +37 68 9,572 245 970 24 Ireland 4,273 +424 120 +22 5 4,148 109 865 24 Denmark 3,757 +371 139 +16 1,193 2,425 153 649 24 Channel Islands 232 +39 4 +1 13 215 1,334 23 USA 272,760 +27,883 6,991 +921 12,044 253,725 5,787 824 21 Austria 11,506 +377 168 +10 2,022 9,316 245 1,278 19 Guadeloupe 130 +2 7 +1 24 99 14 325 17 Germany 91,159 +6,365 1,275 +168 24,575 65,309 3,936 1,088 15 |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 9:59 AM Author: primrose school cafeteria This is incomprehensible gibberish. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39938278) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:06 PM Author: Brilliant diverse bawdyhouse legend https://twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/status/1246154485640187904 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933765) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 5:08 PM Author: Maroon National 3k-4k deaths per day is already unavoidable. The question is what happens eith case numbers, and will they plateau with our current mixed national lockdown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39933778) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 8:00 PM Author: Beta racy dilemma It's hard to imagine any circumstance in which the virussss goes away once we lift the shutdown.
I'm a shutdown-mo, but I suspect it'll come roaring back whenever we let people go about their lives. I suspect it'll be ghastly by the time of the election. |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 7:55 PM Author: Learning disabled stag film roommate I didn’t expect today. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39935057) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 8:26 PM Author: green boyish church windowlicker what happened today? where are you looking at #s? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39935330) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 10:09 AM Author: hairraiser casino people who are hurt What, you started drinking vodka at 10 am instead of 11 am? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39938310) |
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Date: April 3rd, 2020 8:24 PM Author: Burgundy shivering shrine How many of these deaths are regular deaths classified as corona deaths?
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654 |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 10:43 AM Author: Indigo trip set potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497579&forum_id=2#39938447) |