Specifically he’s linked to TargetSmart’s figures for WI and MI, because both look good for Republicans...but those states don’t have partisan EV tracking. In every state that DOES track early voting Republicans are doing horribly, so I’m inclined to believe that TargetSmart’s model just sucks.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660363&forum_id=2#41176779)

If you think my arguments have all relied on TS modeled party, you haven't been paying attention

Nor can you discern basic troubling signs such why black voter share and youth voter share are both down as absolute percent of electorate, when we're seeing the rest of the voting pool be disproportionately conservative.... what gives?

The new voters you talk about, well:

https://imgur.com/a/ijaQnou

So where is this increased dem turnout you speak of? it's all super voters and frequent voters, the conservative votes are coming, and there's zero evidence of increased turnout you need - and plenty evidence of contrary

2016 youth vote: 24M / 128M = 0.19

2020 youth vote: 4.4 / 47M = 0.09

And universities closed on ED, rest of pool will be red - "i think the polls are right" is your only argument, address what i just said here on substance if you have anything else, otherwise we'll see in two weeks

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660363&forum_id=2#41176896)

https://imgur.com/a/ijaQnou

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4660363&forum_id=2#41176880)