Why are so many San Franciscans moving to Montana?

Candis Dorsch, a real estate broker in Bozeman, Mt., has spent years selling vacation homes to Bay Area residents at a healthy clip. But a few months into the pandemic, she said, demand from the Bay exploded.

“I have a vacation rental [in Bozeman],” Dorsch told The Chronicle. “It became slam-booked for the entire summer. Buyers were making phone calls, buyers were buying properties, sight unseen, to get out of the Bay Area. It really happened in the very beginning, and never really stopped.”

The data backs up Dorsch’s observations. In 2020 and 2021, moves from San Francisco to Montana increased by 140% compared to the previous two years — making Montana the state that saw the biggest increase in new San Franciscans during the pandemic.

States that saw the biggest increases in move-ins from San Francisco during the pandemic

Increases are counted by comparing total moves in 2018-2019 and 2020-2021.A bar chart that shows the states with the biggest increase in move-ins from San Francisco during the pandemic compared to the comparable period in 2018-2019. Montana saw the greatest increase, followed by Utah, West Virginia, Texas and Idaho.

Montana

140%

Utah

86%

West Virginia

85%

Texas

82%

Idaho

72%

Maine

66%

Kansas

64%

Hawaii

63%

Rhode Island

55%

Florida

51%

Source: California Policy Lab

Overall moves from the Bay Area increased by 51% during that time as well, according to data on migration patterns from the California Policy Lab, a research group based out of the University of California.

The data tracks movements of all Californian adults with active credit information. In order to analyze moves over the same time periods, we looked at data from the first seven quarters of 2020-2021 and compared them to the same period in 2018-2019.

Change in moves to Montana from California counties during the pandemic

Increases are counted by comparing total moves in 2018-2019 and 2020-2021.A bar chart showing the percent change in moves to Montana from California counties during the pandemic. San Francisco saw the greatest increase, but all 10 of the state's most populous counties saw increases along with at least 8 of the nine Bay Area counties (Napa County didn't have enough data for us to measure).

San Francisco

140%

Marin

94%

Bay Area

51%

Contra Costa

50%

Los Angeles

46%

Alameda

44%

Sonoma

41%

Orange

38%

San Mateo

36%

Santa Clara

34%

Sacramento

31%

Contra Costa

30%

Santa Barbara

24%

San Bernardino

18%

Solano

17%

Riverside

16%

San Diego

16%

Fresno

11%

Source: California Policy Lab

Overall moves from the Bay Area increased by 51% during that time as well, according to data on migration patterns from the California Policy Lab, a research group based out of the University of California.

The data tracks movements of all Californian adults with active credit information. In order to analyze moves over the same time periods, we looked at data from the first seven quarters of 2020-2021 and compared them to the same period in 2018-2019.

While the S.F.-to-Montana increase was large in terms of percentage, the data only shows 360 total moves from San Francisco to Montana in 2020 and the first three quarters of 2021, so it’s not like the city is overwhelming Montana on its own. (Nearly 2,400 Bay Area residents moved to the state in 2020-2021, excluding Napa County, which didn’t have enough data for us to include in our analysis.)

But while San Francisco saw the biggest pandemic-era percent increase to Montana, all 10 of California’s most populous counties saw move-outs to the state increase significantly. And based on the 32 counties with enough data for us to measure, at least 13,000 Californians moved to Montana over the last two years — not a small number for a state of just over 1 million residents by the latest census count.

The reasons for this new influx of Californians to Montana are varied. One obvious one is California’s ever-more-prohibitive housing costs, which has contributed to pushing residents out-of-state at record levels during the pandemic.

For more financially secure ex-Californians who can now work remotely, like many of the tech-sector clients with whom Dorsch works, the Big Sky state’s spaciousness, scenic vistas and ample outdoor activities all contributed to its pandemic-era allure. The city of Bozeman has seen an especially large influx of Bay Area tech workers, according to Dorsch, because of its proximity to an international airport and relative connectivity compared to more rural parts of the state.

“Bozeman has kind of become a little Silicon Valley,” she said.

Not everyone is happy about the California-to-Big Sky pipeline. In the public Facebook group “Moving to Bozeman, Montana,” for instance, one user, posting a question about moving logistics in November 2021, apologized for being from California. Another user, responding to her post, warned her not to “California” her new home state.

Change in home values from Jan. 2020 - Dec. 2021A bar chart showing the change in home values in Montana, California and the U.S. overall from Jan. 2020 to Dec. 2021. Montana saw a 39% increase, the biggest of all three areas.

Montana

39%

California

31%

U.S.

29%

Source: Zillow

A large share of Montanans’ frustration with incoming Californians appears to be economically based. From January 2020 through December 2021, home prices in Montana increased by 39% — the fourth-largest increase, by percentage, of any state over that time period.

“It’s insanity,” said Kelly Martin, a real estate agent at Windermere’s downtown Bozeman office. “Half the homes in Bozeman are well over a million and that’s definitely the out-of-staters coming in and paying cash…People born and raised in Montana, it’s almost like they’re completely priced out.”

He said that while the state is building homes “as fast as they can,” shortages of both homebuilding materials and construction workers have slowed the process down, further contributing to the low supply.

“There’s rows of houses that can’t be listed because they can’t get refrigerators in, or stoves. A lot of them are selling with no garage doors, just plywood [over the garages],” he said.

Dorsch agreed that out-of-staters, particularly Californians, are having an impact on the local housing market, and that this is partly what’s frustrating local Montanans.

“It’s very easy to point the finger at Californians who came from million-dollar houses that were little two-bedroom 700 square foot houses and [have helped] drive the price up,” she said.

But some of the tension is cultural, too. Dorsch, who grew up in Montana, still remembers when she moved back home from San Diego with her husband in 1993.

“And the same feeling existed then that exists now, with those who’ve been born and raised in Bozeman, for example, or Montana,” she said. “I don’t want to say they don’t like change, but when change happens, sometimes it’s challenging to embrace.”

Part of what Dorsch sees as her role, then, is to try and ease some of that tension on both sides.

“The conversation we have as realtor[s], with all our past clients and clients moving in, is you’re not moving in to change the way Montanans live,” she said. “Likewise, with locals who live here, understand that change is healthy, change is good, and if we don’t have change then we might be dying from a standpoint of economy.”

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5018531&forum_id=2#43863134)

During his career, Davenport was given the nicknames "Dookie"[11] and "The Dump Truck."[12] While playing for the Packers, a portable commode was placed inside of his locker during training camp as a rookie hazing prank,[13] and a spirited letter writing campaign to the Green Bay team equipment manager asked in jest that he be issued jersey Number Two for practice,[14] which is still referenced during the opening of the "D-List" show on WAUK ESPN 540 in Milwaukee.[15] All are plays on the incident.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5018531&forum_id=2#43863142)

During his career, Davenport was given the nicknames "Dookie"[11] and "The Dump Truck."[12] While playing for the Packers, a portable commode was placed inside of his locker during training camp as a rookie hazing prank,[13] and a spirited letter writing campaign to the Green Bay team equipment manager asked in jest that he be issued jersey Number Two for practice,[14] which is still referenced during the opening of the "D-List" show on WAUK ESPN 540 in Milwaukee.[15] All are plays on the incident.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5018531&forum_id=2#43863143)

That said, if they do mask mandates + vaxx passports (with current boosters) everywhere then it'll definitely work. We just need to figure out a way to do the equivalent.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5018531&forum_id=2#43863426)