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Date: February 4th, 2018 11:15 PM Author: Navy startling newt orchestra pit
As with any bubble (or even a pure ponzi scheme) it's possible to make a lot of money if you get in and out at the right time. The problem is timing the market. Traditionally, as the bubble inflates or the Ponzi runs, people get greedy & instead double and triple down, and have great reluctance to sell. The fact that bitcoin has had such huge volatility in the past as you point out (ie dropping over 90% over a short time period) is hardly a vote of confidence in it's future stability.
A lot of the pro comments on bitcoin as an "investment" and the criticisms directed at people who call it a bubble/scam strike me as almost of a religious nature. Any currency is based on collective faith, and when anyone's faith is challenged people respond by defending the attack in myriad (and often bizarre) ways. Ad hominem attacks on anti-crypto commentators, even ones with Nobel prizes, are pretty common (they don't get it, they're old, they're just a shill for the corrupt fiat system, their business model is threatened by bitcoin, they are too stupid to understand how blockchain will rule the world, etc etc). If people do not have faith in the value of bitcoin (and I'll here ascribe 'value' as the amount of physically useful things it can be exchanged for, such as food, utilities, shelter, healthcare, transportation, etc) it will be confined to the past as a weird fad where people actually exchanged things of real value for a few 1s and 0s in an unregulated Asian computer programme.
The oft cited criticism of the above might be something along the lines of "Well, your 'investments' in the SP500 and US fiat have also been historically volatile, and are also just as much an act of faith! Aren't US equities and bonds also a bubble?" which indeed, is sort-of true. But there are significant differences.
The fiat of the US is founded on the US Government's ability to tax the income and assets of 330 million people in the world's larget economy and that of most of the largest businesses in the world. And despite the dollar losing over 94% of its value over the past 80 years it still remains the world's reserve currency and the benchmark of value for any traded commodity. I can use them at any time to pay my taxes to that Government and to obtain all the material needs I might have, 24/7, often delivered to my home effortlessly.
The US equity market is also underpinned by the rule of law which therefore allows me to own a piece of every traded company registered in the world's largest economy, and to take a slice of the earnings generated by those companies across the USA and the world. That market has existed for over 120 years, is highly regulated, and has systematically continued to increase in value, albeit with periods of decline that have always proved ephemeral - and perhaps more importantly the fundamental economics of earnings and dividends from businesses in a growing economy explain very well why the periods of declining equity values eventually recover.
So while hindsight is a great way to trade anything, I'll avoid relying on the greater fool theory to invest my fiat US$. Instead I'll own pieces of all the publicly traded companies in the world, take my share of the continued growth of the US and global economy, claim ownership of land and buildings for which people will pay me rent, and even lend some of my money to the US government and some large companies.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3882121&forum_id=7#35325576) |
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Date: February 4th, 2018 11:27 PM Author: Navy startling newt orchestra pit
You don't understand, man! It's not about the price, it's about the philosophy, man, bro! Like.. decentralised.. secure.. *mumble mumble*.. fucking central banks, man! Just ignore the FUDS, bro, goddamn FUDS all over the place. Just HODL, bro. Just HOLD it. They said it was a bubble back in 2014, man, look at us now! They're running scared. Yo, did you watch the latest Andreatta Andriopolousnesse's youtube clip man? He's, like, just, speaking the truth, bro.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3882121&forum_id=7#35325708) |
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