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Buy equity index (VTI) now or Hold Cash?
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Date: December 6th, 2022 1:33 PM Author: frozen godawful goal in life Equities have never gotten crushed harder in my lifetime than they are right now.
The fraud-conomists keep changing their tune on whether or not 'recession is coming' and whether equities will be even shittier next year.
But EVEN IF there is a recession, and then EVEN IF that tanks equities MORE (which is questionable since stocks don't appear to be priced on 'earnings' or 'profits' in the fraud-conomy), won't the Fed just step in sooner-or-later so that 401k-mos don't revolt?
IF the fed put still exists, wouldn't now be a good time to be DCA'ing in pretty hard?
I have like $100k cash i was 'saving' for the 'huge market collapse' but it's been 6-months now of bouncing off 2-year lows. Time to just buy? |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 1:35 PM Author: vigorous property reading party You’ll get in everywhere you apply!! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45594012) |
Date: December 6th, 2022 1:40 PM Author: buff gunner party of the first part Doesn't FEEL like a buying opportunity right now. End of June/early July felt like a buying opportunity and so did early November, now IDK.
Personally I would wait until January. Wait for the fed's last 2022 rate hike and hope that inflation keeps going down and unemployment rises in January/Feb./ |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 1:42 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Ud be paying 15% more s&p than if u bought 1 month ago and soxl is now 2x.:( (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45594042) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 2:16 PM Author: frozen godawful goal in life Sure, hindsight is 20/20 but we're still closer to 52-week lows than 52-week highs.
Literally all 12 months of 2021 'felt like' a buying opportunity and at the end of the year you would have booked some nice gains.
Then in January 22 you would have lost 18 months of gains in 6 months.
Kike casino but its the only game in town. |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 2:01 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Bx right now near 52wk low and has 6% yield. It is clearly a better bet than buying the index now. But buying the index 1 month ago would've been smart. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45594153) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 2:18 PM Author: frum den black woman BX will absolutely nuke if we have a recession. a lot of their revenue is from fraudlies marks on illiquid assets.
PE companies mostly exist to make money for insiders, not shareholders. |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 2:28 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Why? Aren't they a real estate company with rental income(as opposed to house flipping). Seems more legit than gs and jpm that pay their bankers 50mil salaries. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45594285) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 2:32 PM Author: frum den black woman they're an alternative manager. they manage all kinds of assets (mostly private): equity, debt, real estate, etc.
they charge fees on valuations that they mostly determine. the big payouts, however, come from carry, and that requires real exits.
i haven't looked at their compensation expenses, but i imagine that the partners have favorable guaranteed pay packages that would leave shareholders with scraps if the funds started underperforming. |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 2:49 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon So if they are property managers why do u say they skim more off the top than Jpm with Jamie dimon? Their dividend is 6% now not because the stock crashed(it did not drop that much off high, it just stays where it was 1 month ago) but because they raised it continuously over 10 yrs. Of course if they crash to 10% div yield it would be a much better deal than now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45594421) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 5:31 PM Author: fear-inspiring halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45595359) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 6:33 PM Author: lascivious snowy forum dingle berry What’s your current advice for making it? Still SOL? I’m asking sincerely and hope you respond. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45595656) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 6:41 PM Author: shaky awkward mad-dog skullcap $TQQQ when it plunges below $20, $SOXL below 10, and $IEP at all times (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45595693) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 6:47 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon I couldve bought soxl for 6.3 but I waited for it to go to 5. Some with tqqq bought and sold small amounts around 17. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45595711) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 6:48 PM Author: lascivious snowy forum dingle berry IEP? An MLP? You just hold forever and enjoy the distributions? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45595713) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 7:03 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon I'm never going to be rich if I only get 15%. Also what's going to happen to that stock when Icahn dies and he probably dies before buffett. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45595779) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 6:37 PM Author: shaky awkward mad-dog skullcap BX exists off of fraud indians (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45595679) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 6:50 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Why? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45595728) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 6:53 PM Author: shaky awkward mad-dog skullcap Literally all of the underlying biz orgs are china or india (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45595737) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 7:04 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon For real?? I thought they manage apt buildings in USA? And a few casinos in asia (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45595786) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 2:19 PM Author: fishy legend just DCA in over the next year (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45594244) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 8:05 PM Author: Kink-friendly Peach Weed Whacker CR, I've been DCAing index funds last 6 months and I can't complain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45596038) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 2:25 PM Author: fear-inspiring halford Didn't shitcons say we're already in a recession? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45594272) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 6:30 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon I would hope that s&p could still drop to 3800 and then tqqq at 18. But with oil having dropped to 74 next cpi # maybe another 5%+ day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45595640) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 6:39 PM Author: shaky awkward mad-dog skullcap Just showing off my gigantic cock
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5212370&mc=13&forum_id=2 |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 6:48 PM Author: disrespectful odious ladyboy dopamine Bro, equities are literally less than 10% off the all time high. They have literally been crushed this hard or much, much harder at least 10 times in your lifetime. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45595712) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 9:45 PM Author: frozen godawful goal in life google VTI and zoom out to max (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45596551) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 10:09 PM Author: disrespectful odious ladyboy dopamine Don't be fooled bro. A lot of that "dip" is worthless tech companies having their valuations adjusted to reflect that no earnings in a non-zero interest rate environment doesn't work. That is a major long-term shift, not a "buying opportunity." The discount on real companies is much less. If you really believe your thesis you should buy QQQ instead of VTI. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45596694) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 11:28 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon U mean co ponies like Amazon and google? They're not cheap but certainly better than 1 yr ago (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45597116) |
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Date: December 9th, 2022 6:41 PM Author: frozen godawful goal in life don't follow. you're saying that b/c speculative tech stocks got (rightously) blown out and dragged the market down, tech will also drive the recovery? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45610712) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 10:42 PM Author: copper razzmatazz fortuitous meteor parlour VTI is down 18% (not 10%) from it's high. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45601829) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 6:50 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Next week will be the moment of truth if cpi goes up s&p easily goes below 3800. But if not bear market is finished. So maybe it's time to buy, but ure overpaying by at least 15% for broad index and almost 2x for soxl. What's the story with amazon? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45595724) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 6:51 PM Author: dun library sandwich How many bottoms have you predicted so far bud (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45595731) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 6:58 PM Author: hairraiser voyeur trillions of dollars are chasing alpha. option prices predict earnings moves shockingly accurately. the efficient market hypothesis may not be perfect, but it's pretty damn close to it for an extremely liquid product like the SPX. if your edge is "well it's low right now" then just buy and hold. you're being paid for the equity risk of holding the asset. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45595758) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 9:47 PM Author: Kink-friendly Peach Weed Whacker ranchpilled (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45596557) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 9:48 PM Author: sadistic pocket flask therapy "won't the Fed just step in sooner-or-later so 401k-mos don't revolt"
LMAO |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 10:08 PM Author: mint bawdyhouse kitty cat $10k/month for the next 10 minutes. hold short term treasuries until then (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45596680) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 10:18 PM Author: disrespectful odious ladyboy dopamine nobody should hold tttreasuries. There have already been cracks appearing in that market and potential liquidity ossues on the horizon. This shit the fed is doing is highly experimental. The return you get on a treasury vs the best savings account or cd isn't worth it. I had 4.75% offered o a 15 month cd. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45596756) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 3:32 PM Author: Flickering thriller mexican NAME the bank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45599975) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 8:33 PM Author: disrespectful odious ladyboy dopamine It was one of sofi or drbank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45601315) |
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Date: December 6th, 2022 11:49 PM Author: tripping main people 5k oz physical silver (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45597213) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 12:35 PM Author: frozen godawful goal in life (peter schiff) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45599039) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 12:14 PM Author: Carnelian pit One nice thing is that you can get 3.75% holding cash in a money market account or get CDs at 4%+. Not bad for 0 risk. Equities are definitely risky. Personally, I have $300k+ in cash and quite a bit more than that in equities. Not really ready to throw in more into the market now. There's a lot of potential to decline into next year. Articles aren't suggesting that the outlook is great in the near term:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/jamie-dimon-recession-51670354576
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Date: December 7th, 2022 12:16 PM Author: frozen godawful goal in life I have a lot of 2-year laddered CD's but feel kind of cringe buying that kind of asset at this point in my life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45598947) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 3:23 PM Author: Carnelian pit Why? In a time of extreme uncertainty like now investing a ton in safe assets like that makes a lot of sense. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45599925) |
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Date: December 9th, 2022 6:32 PM Author: frozen godawful goal in life my investment horizon is 20+ years.
unless america falls apart - which i am not wealthy enough to hedge against anyway - allocating portfolio to CD's is a bad move for me. |
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Date: December 11th, 2022 5:55 PM Author: Carnelian pit Thought exercise. The market collapses early next year but you have minimal cash on hand to take advantage of it. Was that a good move? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45618268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 12:32 PM Author: Concupiscible hall buy. structured. notes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45599028) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 1:50 PM Author: frum den black woman this is kind of like saying buy ETFs or buy mutual funds. structured notes are a product category that are mostly derivatives-based strategies designed to scam boomers (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45599440) |
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Date: December 9th, 2022 6:34 PM Author: frozen godawful goal in life cr. no idea what this guy is recommending. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45610693) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 3:28 PM Author: sinister cordovan ticket booth factory reset button ok boomer (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45599952) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 3:35 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Since oil and real estate are both coming down it is obvious that next week cpi may be the last one with upside potential. If cpi is lower than expected next week there will be no more bear market. So while today can buy Amazon and bx near 52wk lows and tqqq at 21 there may not be any more such opportunity. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45599993) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 3:42 PM Author: dun library sandwich You have been making this post since July brother. How far are you down buying the bottom friend? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45600029) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 4:14 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon I admit I am dumb and did not buy during that market bottom day when cpi surprised to the up. I was going to buy the following day.. real estate started going down only recently, that means no more cpi surprises to the up. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45600197) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 4:26 PM Author: dun library sandwich Yeah once real estate prices *drop* then stocks will rise. Got it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45600288) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 4:31 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Once real estate drops it's too late to search for the bottom. Same as in 2009 real estate only started dropping by the time the market was well above the lows.if cpi is lower than expected next week the market will never go lower than 4000. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45600313) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 4:53 PM Author: dun library sandwich Yeah this is exactly like 2009. Btw can you tell me what interest rates were doing then? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45600433) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 5:44 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon They started dropping in 2008 and in 2009 drop towards 0 accelerated. That's why it's obvious that next week if cpi misses it is the same as the start of rate cuts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45600656) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 5:59 PM Author: dun library sandwich So "start of rate cuts" at the top of historic rates is the same as 0% rates and 100s of billions of TARP/QE? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45600710) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 4:12 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Someone explain why Amazon is doing so poorly relative to Walmart, considering that they have the same items and prices? And the other stuff(cloud) is a plus for Amazon. Also wholefoods. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45600189) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 5:50 PM Author: hairraiser voyeur WMT's cloud service offerings are killing it this year. AWS can't compete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45600683) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 7:17 PM Author: olive casino newt Cloud stuff is more than “a plus.” It’s most of the value of the company and growing 30% per year (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45600974) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 10:45 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Then I dont get why amzn is in decline considering its retail business is same as Walmart. If Walmart makes $$ on retail why doesnt amzn? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45601835) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 4:20 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon If I can still get tqqq at 20 this week should I? Or better bx at 75 or Amazon at 80? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45600244) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 7:20 PM Author: stimulating stage rigpig no, trust me TQQQ is only worth buying when market is at near lows, right now TQQQ is way above its lows nigga (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45600983) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 10:38 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Its lower than on June 16. If cpi misses it will never go back to 20. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45601818) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 4:27 PM Author: Provocative death wish Since I'm still working, I buy $20k of ETFs per month and don't plan to change course. I might bump it to $25k or $30k per month next year. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45600291) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 4:29 PM Author: lime resort hunting ground nigger! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45600303) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 5:54 PM Author: Electric Scarlet Haunted Graveyard Orchestra Pit (12yr old) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45600694) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 7:34 PM Author: olive casino newt “But EVEN IF there is a recession, and then EVEN IF that tanks equities MORE (which is questionable since stocks don't appear to be priced on 'earnings' or 'profits' in the fraud-conomy), won't the Fed just step in sooner-or-later so that 401k-mos don't revolt?”
I think this is the key faulty assumption you’re making. The Fed is in a tricky spot and they absolutely cannot just drop interest rates again in the medium term without risking another spike in inflation.
You’re also assuming that the Fed doesn’t want to see equities drop, which is also not true. |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 10:37 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Fed doesnt need to cut rates. If it just stops raising rates usd goes back to 1.20 for euro(it already went from .96 to 1.05) just because next meeting is +.5 instead of .75. And obviously stocks go up as the $$ deflates. So basically if next week cpi misses it will be 5%+ day, maybe even 10% since it will be more sig icant than previous month. I already missed out on making 2x on soxl 1 month ago. This week there is still opportunity to buy tqqq at 20, Amazon and bx near 52 week lows. Should I buy amzn and bx? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45601813) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 7:41 PM Author: self-centered menage Savings rates may go up to 5%. At that point hold the cash right? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45601063) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 8:37 PM Author: Carnelian pit They probably will. The fed is still hiking and the talk is of "slowing down increases" rather than stopping them or cutting rates. You can already get 3.75% for money sitting around in a MM account. 1.25% more seems very realistic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45601331) |
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Date: December 7th, 2022 10:47 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon 5% yield is completely useless. I would consider bx with its 7% yield only if I expect the stock value of bx to go up in the future. Otherwise that's less than the real rate on inflation. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45601838) |
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Date: December 9th, 2022 10:08 PM Author: Carnelian pit But the 5% is completely safe income. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45611340) |
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Date: December 9th, 2022 10:17 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon It would make sense if u had $10mil to begin with. Otherwise 5% is the same as trying to get rich by using coupons at a supermarket (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45611361) |
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Date: December 8th, 2022 11:27 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Ppi tomorrow. I guess today was the last time that could buy s&p below 4000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45607075) |
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Date: December 9th, 2022 6:33 PM Author: frozen godawful goal in life great call, pumo! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45610691) |
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Date: December 9th, 2022 10:05 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon So ppi surprisingly went up and yet we closed same as tu and we. It's obvious if cpi next Tuesday misses it will 5%+ with s&p at 4100+. I expect Monday will be a plus day just because of the probability of what happens if cpi misses on tu. So I will not have an opportunity to buy anything unless cpi actually beats on tu. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45611324) |
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Date: December 9th, 2022 4:58 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Next Tuesday cpi will determine if the market closes at 4100 or 3800. If cpi misses then I missed out on investing.. I've accumulated quite a bit of cash that I could put to good use at 3800. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45610239) |
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Date: December 9th, 2022 6:30 PM Author: frozen godawful goal in life CPI 'misses' as in comes in low or high?
i can't tell if equities are starting to rally on good economic news as opposed to the usual bad economic news -> fed pivot expectations.
today i bought 10k VTI (in case the market turns) and
5k VTV (still get equity exposure since im young but value might still be underpriced given past 20 years of growth dominance, also won't get crushed quite as bad as the broader index if the market craters more / prolonged recession starts)
if long-term shittier times are ahead, value could keep beating growth for however long that lasts. |
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Date: December 9th, 2022 10:06 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Obviously if cpi comes in low market jumps just like last month. Notice that since the jobs report last fr that was supposed to bring the market down it only went down like 2% for the week. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45611328) |
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Date: December 11th, 2022 5:31 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon If cpi misses there will be no more opportunity to buy below 4000. Let's hope cpi is high. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45618200) |
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Date: December 11th, 2022 5:51 PM Author: charismatic alpha cumskin Inflation has dropped like a rock. I see gas prices tanking right now, housing has started to drop quite a bit, and companies are firing people. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45618256) |
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Date: December 11th, 2022 5:56 PM Author: Curious office I bought some vtsax and topped off some 529s on Friday brother. I think the new year is going to be a BIG YEAR. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45618269) |
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Date: December 11th, 2022 6:15 PM Author: charismatic alpha cumskin I think market will be significantly higher in the next 12-24 months. There may still be some 10-15% pullbacks but the market is going up in the medium term. I think we start getting rate cuts too end of next year/early 2024. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45618314) |
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Date: December 15th, 2022 4:24 PM Author: exciting shrine antidepressant drug CR especially if Ukraine resolves to some degree and if China backs off zero Covid bc of the exodus of western companies. The “bull case” of this recession makes a ton of sense and is already proving out, which is that everyone overindexes to the last time which was a massive contagion effect. Here we have many more little pockets of weirdos using cheap money to make unnatural arbitrage plays (crypto, Blackrock). You see how prices are behaving in real estate and it’s the best proof of this. Ie prices are plummeting where Blackrock et al were buying up rentals and Airbnb Karens were buying up rentals. But prices in normal neighborhoods with normal families are holding steady and may dip some, but selling behavior has already changed and will restrict supply and keep the prices higher. The ARMs of this recession are SaaS companies with 100:1 valuations, Airbnb units/middle class sfh rentals and crypto, and those will all pop and fuck those people and barely anyone else. Meanwhile we’re all forced to tighten up spending habits and increase savings rate. Stay tuned for Qtards to claim that this was the deep state’s plan all along to make sure Biden is re-elected.
What’s harder to figure out now is the next big thing. In 2009/10 FAANG was so blatantly obvious but I was too poor to take advantage. This time around it feels like EVs are the best fit, but it’s a much less reliable bet. Cybersecurity also stood out as the port in the tech storm until two weeks ago, but I still think it makes sense. The other one that seems logical to me is the notion that Airbnb Karens will all go bust but the people who buy their foreclosure sales will get rich. |
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Date: December 15th, 2022 4:38 PM Author: Mauve volcanic crater Is this wlmas? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45639125) |
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Date: December 15th, 2022 4:41 PM Author: exciting shrine antidepressant drug Lol no, you’re a qtard I take it? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45639143) |
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Date: December 15th, 2022 11:25 AM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Today maybe last opportunity below 4000. What can we buy? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45637233) |
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Date: December 15th, 2022 3:59 PM Author: Flickering thriller mexican Today last opportunity to buy below 3900
Next month last opportunity to buy below 3800 |
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Date: December 15th, 2022 3:48 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Bump. Bx and Tesla starting to look good but they did not drop much today while tqqq is nice 10% off. I still hope to get tqqq below 18. Is the market going to go down tomorrow? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45638855) |
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Date: December 15th, 2022 4:05 PM Author: buff gunner party of the first part 25% of revenue is from China, there's dozens of new EV competitors, and Elon is distracted by Twitter/SpaceX/etc. You'd have to be a retard to buy TSLA imo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45638920) |
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Date: December 15th, 2022 4:47 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon The only way that Twitter may have marginal effect on tsla is if Twitter files bankruptcy musk will need to sell even more shares to dispose of it. It has no effect on # of cars made or charging stations or semis coming out. I see how tsla can lose market share in China, but so what. Iphone isnt #1 in China and yet its been printing cash in USA for over 10 yrs. I think charging stations and having those software updates in tsla are $$ printing and what separates it from a regular auto company (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45639171) |
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Date: December 16th, 2022 11:51 AM Author: buff gunner party of the first part Tesla doesn't make money on charging stations lol. Semis are still a pipe dream. Remember how Cybertruck was supposed to be the first EV truck to market? Uh, I'm pretty sure Ford, Rivian, and GM all beat Tesla to market with really good products...
TSLA will lose Gigafactory Shanghai when the CCP nationalizes it and kicks Elon out of Chin.
Plenty of companies do OTA updates and have started to monetize the in-car experience.
TSLA has nothing going for it at the moment. That retard TBF will undoubtedly enter the thread like a bowling ball and claim FSD is almost ready but don't trust his kike ass. He's a complete moron. |
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Date: December 16th, 2022 12:17 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Hm I now have a small position in tsla. But what about those semis that they did deliver already? And the waitlist for cybertruck is huge. Tsla proved it can mass produce sedans while all those fords and rivian are produced in small # at small margin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45642911) |
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Date: December 16th, 2022 10:53 AM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Need to know what to buy. Want to buy individual stocks before going for the index. Considering upcoming earnings recession the big stocks aren't so cheap. Tsla is ok. And Google may be ok at 85. But if this were like 2008 they would be much cheaper. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45642512) |
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Date: December 16th, 2022 10:56 AM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Bx below 75. Buy? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45642527) |
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Date: December 16th, 2022 11:42 AM Author: lascivious snowy forum dingle berry Exeunt said not to at the top of this thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45642738) |
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Date: December 16th, 2022 11:58 AM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Why? I am not impressed when some chink just tells u something without explaining his reason. I just bought 50 bx shares at 74 to open a position. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45642814) |
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Date: December 16th, 2022 12:02 PM Author: lascivious snowy forum dingle berry He wrote a bit starting with BX plummeting in the event of a recession. Read his posts (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45642838) |
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Date: December 16th, 2022 12:12 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon U can say that about any company. What I do see is that a lot of companies are still "beating earning estimates" on their Q3, while Google and Amazon missed and dropped. This means that once those other companies miss Q4 earnings on jan30 they might have instant 20% discount. But by then the next cpi might be up and 10yr yields drop below 3%. So waiting too long might completely miss the bottom (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45642891) |
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Date: December 16th, 2022 12:03 PM Author: adulterous tank theater AAPL in the low 130s (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45642843) |
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Date: December 16th, 2022 12:14 PM Author: mahogany unhinged tanning salon Tqqq will always beat aapl long term. The pe of aapl just isnt cheap for a mature company and even if compare eps growth over 10yrs Google and msft beats it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5248326&forum_id=2#45642903) |