“Iran” is another nothingburger as far as the USA is concerned, deal with it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5902153&forum_id=2!#50126311)

Author: average/ordinary/typical citizen/person

In about 30% of the world yes. You will get rations though. Probably.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5902153&forum_id=2#50126522)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5902153&forum_id=2!#50126526)

The conditions that allowed for the Arab Spring were almost certainly initially caused by a slowdown in oil production in the mid-aughts followed by sharply rising commodity prices (thus causing the price of fertilizer to skyrocket).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5902153&forum_id=2!#50126546)

In reality, Iran (like Ukraine and Covid insanity before it) exists to keep the machinery working. It is obviously deeply, deeply strained. But there seems to be no room for actual correction post-2008.

What I have found interesting, and also hard to decipher in terms of how it really relates to the Iran stuff, is how all of the Saudi Megaprojects are basically dead. "The Line" is functionally dead and LIV Golf is now dead. They also spent like a billion dollars on Ronaldo for their soccer league that no one will ever watch.

My belief is that all of these projects stemmed from the undrelying fact that Saudi oil production basically plateau'd years ago (initially in 2005 / 2006 and again more recently) relative to world demand. The US' fracking MIRACLE (and it is a miracle) effectively kept the system alive and growing and will continue to do so.

As has the endless financialization of everything. Allowing college athletes to be paid and letting colleges form for-profit JVs with PE firms to monetize TV ratings and so forth is another piece of this.

As long as capital has new avenues through which to pursue growth, there will be no real "event" that stops the insanity.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5902153&forum_id=2!#50126544)

But what we definitely won't have to worry about is AI killing us. It won't be using power.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5902153&forum_id=2!#50126587)

Author: average/ordinary/typical citizen/person

no idea. But within the next 12 months we will have emergency command economy situation controlling fuel consumption. Either certain days with permission or outright black out dates where you can't drive or just absolute unavailability of fuel for public use. People will use it when they can which will be rarely. Emergency services, industrial sector, military will get priority of diesel. Industrial output in Asia throttled, production of a number of products for consumers and industry simply offline. Global shipping traffic limited to emergency basis. A lot of imported foods are gone from store shelves in America/Europe. There is literal acute famine in Indonesia, Philippines, India, Pakistan, significant parts of Africa, lots of civil uprising and internal armed conflict with unknown consequences and spread. Medicines, medical procedures, pharmaceuticals become limited availability in US/Western Europe. Air travel basically non existent. In summary for YOU, basically you wont be mobile. You will have things brought to you or general zone of distribution that you walk or bike to, to the extent our state apparatus continues to function. And that is how it goes until things either break down or we progress otherwise over the next 5 ears to make localized production and economy more possible. That is assuming we maintain some level of integrity in the middle east and basically hand Iran hegemony. If Iran destroys everything and we decide on outright global conflict with everyone scrambling for themselves no idea what will happen. You will probably die. Long dystentery as a cause of death.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5902153&forum_id=2#50126587)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5902153&forum_id=2!#50126589)

"..........Purity Control..."

::Door Opens::

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5902153&forum_id=2!#50126607)

Btw, I unironically think such an event as you've described would actually cure what ails us. It would let us go back to a world in which underlying conditions drive production and output rather than finance power and debt (which currently does).

Regardless, I appreciate you writing all of this out. Ideally in 12 months this all happens and you out yourself as Scott Bessent.

Here are the blogs of the two writers I mentioned:

--Fabio Vighi (go back to his old Covid writing for some really eye opening stuff): https://www.thephilosophicalsalon.com/author/fabiovighi/

--Gail Tverberg: https://ourfiniteworld.com/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5902153&forum_id=2!#50126631)

Iran is something people have no control over until 2028.

It makes sense people devote more energy into something they can impact than fretting about something they can't.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5902153&forum_id=2!#50126563)

I think it's actually possible that we'll see parts of the US thrive and others further rot away because of local approaches to energy production. I always laugh when libs are like "California is the 4th largest economy in the world." Not because it isn't true, but because it is almost entirely driven by a small subset of firms that could in theory operate within a separate city-state (and some in Silicon Valley have tried to make this a reality). And, naturally, the wealth created by these firms allows California to be insane (whereas shitlibs get it backwards, as always).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5902153&forum_id=2!#50126660)