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Bank of America: "The economy is crashing Jun 23-Dec 24 - WITH NO SURVIVORS
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Date: January 17th, 2023 10:22 AM Author: exhilarant sticky base persian https://twitter.com/PresentWitness_/status/1615317799777230851 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45800968) |
Date: January 17th, 2023 10:29 AM Author: Diverse gaping This will surely happen! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45800988) |
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Date: January 17th, 2023 10:30 AM Author: crawly plum den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45800989) |
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Date: January 17th, 2023 10:33 AM Author: hateful messiness Why are we always 6 months away from a recession. 3 months ago it was spring 23 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45801006) |
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Date: January 17th, 2023 10:50 AM Author: Appetizing impressive national cumskin Wall Street trying to pressure fed bank into premature easing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45801116) |
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Date: January 17th, 2023 10:55 AM Author: vigorous sinister center ladyboy Isn’t June technically still spring (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45801128) |
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Date: January 17th, 2023 10:50 AM Author: Ivory Erotic Station Depressive The fed rate was that high in the mid 00s? Were 30 year fixed mortgages like 7%? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45801111) |
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Date: January 17th, 2023 10:55 AM Author: vigorous sinister center ladyboy Min was in 2009 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45801130) |
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Date: January 17th, 2023 12:20 PM Author: bright newt theater you could get like 6% from a money market acct in 2006 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45801453) |
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Date: January 17th, 2023 3:37 PM Author: Ivory Erotic Station Depressive That I recall, but I thought it was still pretty easy to get a 4% or lower mortgage rate at that time. I didn’t buy/own a house then, so maybe I just missed it. But I definitely remember there being discussion about how 30 year fixed rates were already at very low levels so the kinds of proles they targeted with subprime mortgages were true poors with awful credit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45802463) |
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Date: January 17th, 2023 10:57 AM Author: duck-like abode legal warrant Does a cut from 5% to 3% rates only happen in the event of a big crash? Seems like more of a return to normalcy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45801135) |
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Date: January 17th, 2023 3:24 PM Author: sadistic pit mad-dog skullcap I agree. They'll probably stop raising soon and then hold for 6-9 months is my guess based on what I've read. Then lower to a neutral rate if inflation hasn't bounced back. They certainly don't want a 5% rate long term so it's only a matter of time IMO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45802407) |
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Date: January 17th, 2023 12:19 PM Author: Hideous spruce associate hall We're so fucked (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45801449) |
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Date: January 17th, 2023 3:37 PM Author: Umber generalized bond translation: raise the debt ceiling, shoot us up some of that brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45802470) |
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Date: January 17th, 2023 7:45 PM Author: Ivory Erotic Station Depressive The divergence of opinion about what the next 12 months will be is really wild. I can’t remember a time like it that wasn’t the immediate aftermath of a major crisis moment like 9/11 or the job loss peak of ITE (when it was not clear that it was a peak). The chart just pointing to rate hikes and crashes seems quite stupid, though. Go back to the rate hikes from the early 80s (ie the last time there was inflation that was as bad as today) or the 1991 recession. Odds are we haven’t perfectly threaded the needle and the incentives of the Fed always seem to run toward overcorrection. But it’s relatively lucky that 1) China stimulated significant onshoring while also renouncing zero Covid, 2) the Ukraine war has followed a path where Euros are hanging together and still buying way more of our oil and gas than they otherwise would, and 3) tech layoffs and crypto fallout seem to be pretty self contained so far. I also suspect it’s hard to calculate the benefit across the entire economy of 1M deaths of a population most likely to be medically and care intensive for a much longer period (ie a death from Covid after two weeks in the ICU is much cheaper than a death from diabetes/heart disease/cancer/etc. after years of treatments and months in hospice). The only reason I’m not more optimistic for a soft landing is that we don’t have the same obvious upside in the economy that we had in 2008 with the iPhone recently debuted, all the Web 2.0 companies just getting going, Amazon just beginning cloud computing, streaming in its infancy, and all the help the federal balance sheet got from just spending less in Iraq, let alone actually pulling out. Today there’s EVs that are much more of a slow and steady/mixed bag kind of shift in the economy. There’s AI but that mainly seems like automation of lower skilled work (also a mixed bag). There’s the hope that more people working from home can lead to a renewal of entrepreneurship, and there is some hope that cybersecurity becomes a decent growth engine. The most likely outcome for the next two years seems to be muddling through with mixed results. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45803490) |
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Date: January 17th, 2023 8:16 PM Author: Diverse gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5272284&forum_id=2),#45803669) |
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