Where is the IRAN war headed at this point?
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Date: May 9th, 2026 7:21 PM Author: Slap-happy institution boltzmann
Blockade right up until the last minute for midterms (August?), followed by drummed up bullshit that results in some massive attack that sets the country on fire. Gas prices drop in the fall. 2 things: the blockade will continue as long as the US consumers can stomach it, and the Trump will have to fuck up Iran because that's what Americans want. The last part is sad and unnecessary but its the only politically viable option.
I hope people understand that Iran has been allowed to act tough because the US doesn't want to disrupt oil infrastructure. The US military could level the country in 6 hours. The IRCG could continue to fight but it would be for nothing at that point. The US has actually let empty tankers through the blockade to prevent Iranian wells from getting total fucked. Each empty tanker is like 3% of Irans storage capacity.
Also while I'm here, Iran is poor as fuck. Their GDP per cap is half of Saudi arabia. The Iranian regime has been the worst thing for the Iranian people. It's a totally artificial hindrance.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2),#49877312) |
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:17 PM Author: internet-worthy stage blood rage
Iran gaining financial control of the Strait, worth tens of billions annually.
UAE/Saudi split growing even more.
US traded $100b in war costs plus losing Saudi, Qatar, Kawait as allies plus giving Iran tens of billions of dollars annually in free money in exchange for destroying Iran's current military.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2),#49877417) |
Date: May 9th, 2026 8:38 PM Author: avocado tantric office mediation
🚨🇮🇷 Iran is moving to take control of 7 undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz...
The details are remarkable.
Under the new policy being considered, foreign operators would be required to obtain permits to use these cables, pay fees, follow Iranian law, and all management and maintenance would be handled by Iranian companies.
The IRGC has previously warned it could physically target these same cables.
This is the same Hormuz playbook applied to digital infrastructure.
Iran already passed parliamentary legislation establishing toll collection on shipping.
Now Tehran is preparing to apply identical leverage to the data cables that carry traffic between Europe, Asia, and the Gulf.
The strait isn't just a chokepoint for oil anymore.
Iran is positioning it as a chokepoint for global communications.
The strategic implications are MASSIVE.
These cables carry an enormous share of data traffic between Asian economies and European markets.
Banking transactions. Stock trading. Cloud services. Government communications.
The same infrastructure that powers global commerce runs through waters Iran is now claiming jurisdiction over.
For Tehran, this is the next iteration of the leverage strategy that has worked all war.
Block oil shipping until you get sanctions relief.
Now propose to control data flows until you get more concessions.
Each new chokepoint Iran formalizes creates additional pressure that the U.S. has to address in any final deal.
The IRGC's warning that it could target the cables physically is the velvet glove on the iron fist.
Pay the fees, follow Iranian law, accept Iranian management, or risk the entire global communications architecture between Europe and Asia going dark.
That's the kind of asymmetric threat that doesn't require nuclear weapons or even particularly sophisticated military capability.
https://x.com/i/status/2053254237836972235
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2),#49877439)
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Date: May 9th, 2026 11:42 PM Author: avocado tantric office mediation
Update from Polymarket. I guess they think this is significant
https://x.com/i/status/2053297239250878565
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865402&forum_id=2),#49877816) |
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