The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| bossy abode hominid | 12/10/15 |
| big bronze brunch | 12/12/15 |
| bossy abode hominid | 01/02/17 |
| razzle-dazzle corner | 01/06/16 |
| geriatric toaster plaza | 01/06/16 |
| geriatric toaster plaza | 06/05/16 |
| comical fluffy range | 03/26/16 |
| Chest-beating razzle travel guidebook shrine | 01/02/17 |
| unhinged drab kitchen | 10/25/18 |
| Black misanthropic box office mexican | 12/10/15 |
| Overrated Hairraiser Friendly Grandma Point | 12/10/15 |
| Chocolate passionate idiot | 12/10/15 |
| Orange nudist round eye | 12/10/15 |
| arrogant aqua theatre antidepressant drug | 12/15/15 |
| fragrant orchestra pit generalized bond | 12/10/15 |
| swashbuckling faggotry heaven | 12/10/15 |
| apoplectic principal's office | 12/10/15 |
| Cordovan cuckold address | 12/11/15 |
| buff adventurous hospital | 12/12/15 |
| Laughsome Space | 12/16/15 |
| Deranged native legend | 01/04/16 |
| seedy at-the-ready bbw puppy | 11/09/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 12/11/15 |
| Lascivious Set | 12/11/15 |
| Razzmatazz Crawly Digit Ratio Ceo | 12/11/15 |
| Cordovan cuckold address | 12/11/15 |
| Magical hell regret | 12/12/15 |
| Hideous thriller candlestick maker | 01/25/16 |
| Glittery misunderstood lodge | 11/10/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 12/12/15 |
| Vermilion stage | 12/12/15 |
| Stirring Famous Landscape Painting | 12/12/15 |
| Contagious maroon filthpig | 12/12/15 |
| Autistic blathering meetinghouse | 12/15/15 |
| Mustard Excitant Library | 12/21/15 |
| Histrionic people who are hurt | 12/12/15 |
| irradiated center kitty | 12/12/15 |
| Offensive frozen state | 12/12/15 |
| trip sneaky criminal stead | 12/12/15 |
| up-to-no-good base factory reset button | 12/12/15 |
| Vengeful Office Ladyboy | 12/12/15 |
| swashbuckling faggotry heaven | 12/15/15 |
| swashbuckling faggotry heaven | 12/16/15 |
| Startling Chrome Theater Stage French Chef | 12/15/15 |
| cream chapel shitlib | 12/15/15 |
| Bisexual Insane Trailer Park Place Of Business | 12/15/15 |
| Ocher mother lay | 12/15/15 |
| 180 deer antler pit | 12/15/15 |
| Soul-stirring nursing home | 12/15/15 |
| bossy abode hominid | 12/15/15 |
| bossy abode hominid | 12/15/15 |
| bossy abode hominid | 12/15/15 |
| bossy abode hominid | 12/15/15 |
| bossy abode hominid | 12/15/15 |
| pontificating exhilarant senate personal credit line | 01/05/16 |
| Hideous thriller candlestick maker | 01/25/16 |
| Nubile Brindle Site Goyim | 12/17/16 |
| diverse liquid oxygen | 05/18/16 |
| Charcoal institution | 08/12/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 11/09/16 |
| Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse | 11/09/16 |
| Fuchsia fortuitous meteor goal in life | 11/09/16 |
| bateful light university pisswyrm | 10/22/20 |
| Titillating Newt | 12/15/15 |
| hyperventilating national multi-billionaire | 12/16/15 |
| Lake Trump Supporter Indirect Expression | 12/16/15 |
| Alcoholic Multi-colored Immigrant | 12/16/15 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 12/16/15 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 12/17/15 |
| Galvanic well-lubricated indian lodge | 12/18/15 |
| razzle-dazzle corner | 01/06/16 |
| gold flatulent casino | 12/18/15 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 12/21/15 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 12/21/15 |
| Mustard Excitant Library | 12/21/15 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 12/30/15 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 12/30/15 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 01/04/16 |
| Deranged native legend | 01/04/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 01/05/16 |
| Hideous thriller candlestick maker | 01/25/16 |
| Galvanic well-lubricated indian lodge | 01/05/16 |
| Fantasy-prone purple affirmative action chad | 01/05/16 |
| Crusty forum | 01/05/16 |
| burgundy menage | 01/05/16 |
| Supple temple therapy | 01/05/16 |
| burgundy menage | 01/05/16 |
| razzle-dazzle corner | 01/06/16 |
| burgundy menage | 01/06/16 |
| Supple temple therapy | 01/05/16 |
| Charcoal institution | 01/06/16 |
| Mustard Excitant Library | 01/07/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 01/08/16 |
| costumed filthy den clown | 01/08/16 |
| Mustard Excitant Library | 01/08/16 |
| Galvanic well-lubricated indian lodge | 01/09/16 |
| Mustard Excitant Library | 01/10/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 01/18/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 01/19/16 |
| Galvanic well-lubricated indian lodge | 01/21/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 01/25/16 |
| Pearly federal doctorate | 01/25/16 |
| Hideous thriller candlestick maker | 01/25/16 |
| Pearly federal doctorate | 02/09/16 |
| costumed filthy den clown | 09/06/16 |
| razzle-dazzle corner | 11/05/18 |
| Twinkling public bath | 01/29/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 02/01/16 |
| zombie-like double fault field | 02/01/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 02/01/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 02/07/16 |
| Fantasy-prone purple affirmative action chad | 02/09/16 |
| charismatic sanctuary reading party | 02/09/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 02/20/16 |
| mahogany garrison patrolman | 02/20/16 |
| diverse liquid oxygen | 02/24/16 |
| racy piazza | 02/24/16 |
| Mind-boggling coral private investor turdskin | 02/27/16 |
| Startling Chrome Theater Stage French Chef | 03/09/16 |
| fighting ticket booth pervert | 03/15/16 |
| Chocolate passionate idiot | 03/15/16 |
| cream chapel shitlib | 03/16/16 |
| soggy hall tank | 02/24/16 |
| dashing fiercely-loyal school cafeteria scourge upon the earth | 02/24/16 |
| cream chapel shitlib | 07/21/16 |
| white stimulating spot headpube | 02/24/16 |
| Chocolate passionate idiot | 02/27/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 03/02/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 03/04/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 03/09/16 |
| Fantasy-prone purple affirmative action chad | 03/09/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 03/15/16 |
| diverse liquid oxygen | 03/15/16 |
| curious parlour | 03/15/16 |
| beta tanning salon roommate | 03/15/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 03/16/16 |
| swashbuckling faggotry heaven | 03/16/16 |
| Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse | 03/23/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 03/23/16 |
| Offensive frozen state | 03/26/16 |
| Beady-eyed mental disorder national security agency | 03/26/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 03/26/16 |
| pontificating exhilarant senate personal credit line | 03/28/16 |
| Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse | 03/28/16 |
| Overrated Hairraiser Friendly Grandma Point | 03/28/16 |
| Charcoal institution | 08/12/16 |
| razzle-dazzle corner | 11/05/18 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 03/28/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 03/29/16 |
| zippy bright tattoo nibblets | 03/29/16 |
| zippy bright tattoo nibblets | 03/29/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 03/29/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 03/29/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 04/01/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 04/04/16 |
| zippy bright tattoo nibblets | 04/15/16 |
| Vigorous resort | 04/15/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 04/19/16 |
| Lime Love Of Her Life | 04/20/16 |
| Saffron cuck | 04/20/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 04/24/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 04/25/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 04/26/16 |
| learning disabled self-centered macaca | 04/26/16 |
| Glassy boltzmann | 04/30/16 |
| aromatic station jap | 05/01/16 |
| aromatic station jap | 11/07/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 05/02/16 |
| Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse | 05/02/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 05/03/16 |
| High-end home dysfunction | 05/03/16 |
| sepia sweet tailpipe | 05/03/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 05/04/16 |
| costumed filthy den clown | 05/04/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 05/05/16 |
| trip sneaky criminal stead | 05/05/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 05/05/16 |
| dashing fiercely-loyal school cafeteria scourge upon the earth | 05/05/16 |
| Vermilion stage | 05/18/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 05/18/16 |
| diverse liquid oxygen | 05/18/16 |
| Vermilion stage | 05/18/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 05/29/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 06/20/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 06/29/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 07/14/16 |
| heady feces whorehouse | 07/15/16 |
| Charcoal institution | 07/15/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 07/17/16 |
| costumed filthy den clown | 07/17/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 07/21/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 07/22/16 |
| boyish location depressive | 07/22/16 |
| naked vibrant locale useless brakes | 07/23/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 07/24/16 |
| Hot big-titted coldplay fan | 07/25/16 |
| zippy bright tattoo nibblets | 07/25/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 07/27/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 08/05/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 08/09/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 08/12/16 |
| costumed filthy den clown | 08/12/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 08/12/16 |
| demanding wonderful international law enforcement agency | 08/12/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 08/30/16 |
| costumed filthy den clown | 08/30/16 |
| costumed filthy den clown | 09/06/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 09/13/16 |
| zippy bright tattoo nibblets | 09/14/16 |
| Histrionic people who are hurt | 09/14/16 |
| Plum territorial hissy fit stag film | 09/15/16 |
| concupiscible garnet hairy legs | 09/15/16 |
| geriatric toaster plaza | 09/15/16 |
| Talented knife water buffalo | 09/15/16 |
| Motley gay wizard dingle berry | 09/15/16 |
| bull headed stage | 09/19/16 |
| bull headed stage | 09/19/16 |
| costumed filthy den clown | 09/27/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 09/24/16 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 09/27/16 |
| costumed filthy den clown | 09/27/16 |
| swashbuckling faggotry heaven | 09/27/16 |
| electric kink-friendly windowlicker | 10/08/16 |
| Harsh crackhouse | 07/29/24 |
| zippy bright tattoo nibblets | 09/28/16 |
| Histrionic people who are hurt | 09/28/16 |
| costumed filthy den clown | 09/28/16 |
| Saffron cuck | 09/28/16 |
| Vigorous resort | 09/28/16 |
| Indecent church building | 10/08/16 |
| costumed filthy den clown | 10/09/16 |
| Confused Slap-happy Stain | 10/09/16 |
| costumed filthy den clown | 10/09/16 |
| Indigo impertinent partner locus | 10/09/16 |
| zippy bright tattoo nibblets | 10/10/16 |
| Hot big-titted coldplay fan | 10/30/16 |
| Charcoal institution | 11/01/16 |
| Talented knife water buffalo | 11/01/16 |
| ruddy shivering school brethren | 11/02/16 |
| Ocher mother lay | 11/02/16 |
| zippy bright tattoo nibblets | 11/07/16 |
| Hairless Odious Preventive Strike | 11/08/16 |
| zippy bright tattoo nibblets | 11/08/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 11/08/16 |
| zippy bright tattoo nibblets | 11/08/16 |
| Cracking shimmering background story | 11/08/16 |
| peach business firm internal respiration | 11/08/16 |
| zombie-like double fault field | 11/08/16 |
| bull headed stage | 11/08/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 11/08/16 |
| khaki milk marketing idea | 11/09/16 |
| Plum territorial hissy fit stag film | 11/09/16 |
| nighttime fishy cuckoldry queen of the night | 11/09/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 11/09/16 |
| Talented knife water buffalo | 11/09/16 |
| khaki milk marketing idea | 11/09/16 |
| Hot big-titted coldplay fan | 11/09/16 |
| trip sneaky criminal stead | 11/09/16 |
| arousing mediation theater | 12/03/16 |
| Glittery misunderstood lodge | 12/07/16 |
| Nubile Brindle Site Goyim | 12/17/16 |
| Exciting Milky Step-uncle's House Crotch | 10/11/24 |
| Provocative Flushed Parlor | 11/09/16 |
| Talking blue cruise ship | 11/09/16 |
| Cerebral market | 11/09/16 |
| pungent house | 11/09/16 |
| arousing mediation theater | 11/09/16 |
| Charcoal institution | 11/09/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 11/09/16 |
| Vermilion stage | 11/09/16 |
| costumed filthy den clown | 11/09/16 |
| sienna black woman | 11/09/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 11/09/16 |
| abnormal floppy gas station | 11/09/16 |
| Awkward carmine property | 11/09/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 11/09/16 |
| Orange nudist round eye | 11/09/16 |
| gold flatulent casino | 11/10/16 |
| Pearly federal doctorate | 11/10/16 |
| geriatric toaster plaza | 11/10/16 |
| transparent area | 11/10/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 11/10/16 |
| zippy bright tattoo nibblets | 11/10/16 |
| mahogany garrison patrolman | 11/10/16 |
| bull headed stage | 11/14/16 |
| spectacular know-it-all dilemma telephone | 11/14/16 |
| violent dragon | 12/04/16 |
| Nubile Brindle Site Goyim | 12/17/16 |
| Exciting Milky Step-uncle's House Crotch | 10/11/24 |
| bossy abode hominid | 11/25/16 |
| flickering cumskin sound barrier | 12/03/16 |
| Indigo impertinent partner locus | 12/04/16 |
| Sick appetizing community account | 12/07/16 |
| geriatric toaster plaza | 12/07/16 |
| flickering cumskin sound barrier | 12/07/16 |
| bossy abode hominid | 01/02/17 |
| Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat | 01/02/17 |
| bossy abode hominid | 01/02/17 |
| Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat | 01/02/17 |
| bossy abode hominid | 03/03/20 |
| geriatric toaster plaza | 01/02/17 |
| Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse | 01/16/17 |
| Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat | 01/20/17 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 01/20/17 |
| Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat | 01/23/17 |
| Indecent church building | 01/23/17 |
| Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat | 01/23/17 |
| aphrodisiac haunted graveyard | 01/23/17 |
| Indecent church building | 01/23/17 |
| Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat | 01/23/17 |
| Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat | 01/25/17 |
| Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat | 01/26/17 |
| Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat | 02/06/17 |
| Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat | 02/13/17 |
| Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat | 02/27/17 |
| Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat | 05/03/17 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 05/03/17 |
| Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat | 09/21/17 |
| Chocolate passionate idiot | 01/23/17 |
| Talented knife water buffalo | 02/27/17 |
| razzle-dazzle corner | 03/22/17 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 04/17/17 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 05/08/17 |
| bossy abode hominid | 06/20/17 |
| bossy abode hominid | 08/10/17 |
| bossy abode hominid | 10/15/17 |
| Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse | 10/15/17 |
| Red church | 10/15/17 |
| bossy abode hominid | 11/06/17 |
| Massive alpha | 11/06/17 |
| Marvelous New Version | 11/08/17 |
| Haunting Vivacious Son Of Senegal | 11/08/17 |
| crimson weed whacker | 11/13/17 |
| Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse | 12/18/17 |
| costumed filthy den clown | 12/18/17 |
| Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse | 12/18/17 |
| bossy abode hominid | 01/30/18 |
| geriatric toaster plaza | 06/01/18 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 07/18/18 |
| Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse | 07/19/18 |
| Motley gay wizard dingle berry | 09/20/18 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 09/25/18 |
| Overrated Hairraiser Friendly Grandma Point | 10/06/18 |
| bossy abode hominid | 10/06/18 |
| geriatric toaster plaza | 10/25/18 |
| concupiscible garnet hairy legs | 10/25/18 |
| Hideous thriller candlestick maker | 11/05/18 |
| geriatric toaster plaza | 11/05/18 |
| razzle-dazzle corner | 11/05/18 |
| geriatric toaster plaza | 11/05/18 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 01/08/19 |
| Snowy Degenerate Trust Fund | 02/23/19 |
| bossy abode hominid | 03/13/19 |
| Hideous thriller candlestick maker | 06/24/19 |
| lilac mood | 06/24/19 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 11/18/19 |
| Talented knife water buffalo | 02/12/20 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 02/12/20 |
| bossy abode hominid | 03/24/20 |
| abusive roast beef | 03/24/20 |
| heady feces whorehouse | 04/04/20 |
| bossy abode hominid | 04/26/20 |
| bossy abode hominid | 05/13/20 |
| heady feces whorehouse | 06/05/20 |
| Aquamarine Rigor | 06/05/20 |
| heady feces whorehouse | 09/09/20 |
| Talented knife water buffalo | 09/09/20 |
| Black misanthropic box office mexican | 09/09/20 |
| Godawful Jet Philosopher-king | 09/12/20 |
| Mad-dog Skullcap Electric Furnace | 09/24/20 |
| lilac mood | 10/09/20 |
| Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse | 10/10/20 |
| 10/22/20 |
| arousing mediation theater | 10/22/20 |
| bateful light university pisswyrm | 10/22/20 |
| bateful light university pisswyrm | 10/22/20 |
| Slimy Prole | 03/23/22 |
| bossy abode hominid | 10/27/20 |
| razzle-dazzle corner | 10/27/20 |
| lilac mood | 10/30/20 |
| Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse | 11/03/20 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 03/22/22 |
| rebellious doobsian laser beams gaming laptop | 03/23/22 |
| Dark sexy foreskin | 03/23/22 |
| Gaped | 03/23/22 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 07/25/22 |
| Black misanthropic box office mexican | 07/25/22 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 10/23/22 |
| bossy abode hominid | 11/16/22 |
| bossy abode hominid | 04/25/23 |
| Vermilion stage | 04/25/23 |
| Mad-dog Skullcap Electric Furnace | 04/29/23 |
| Harsh crackhouse | 05/28/23 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 02/22/24 |
| Mad-dog Skullcap Electric Furnace | 02/23/24 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 05/23/24 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 08/26/24 |
| Mad-dog Skullcap Electric Furnace | 09/13/24 |
| Black misanthropic box office mexican | 09/13/24 |
| Mad-dog Skullcap Electric Furnace | 10/18/24 |
| Exciting Milky Step-uncle's House Crotch | 10/11/24 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 11/06/24 |
| trip sneaky criminal stead | 03/04/25 |
| trip sneaky criminal stead | 03/04/25 |
| Motley gay wizard dingle berry | 03/04/25 |
| Exciting Milky Step-uncle's House Crotch | 03/04/25 |
| bespoke ruby boiling water | 03/04/25 |
| Rambunctious corn cake | 03/05/25 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 03/07/25 |
| jet-lagged yarmulke | 03/07/25 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 03/08/25 |
| 03/08/25 |
| Twisted rehab voyeur | 03/08/25 |
| goy orbison | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: bossy abode hominid December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
 |
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: big bronze brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29364653) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32284620) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: razzle-dazzle corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29532817) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: geriatric toaster plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29532846) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: geriatric toaster plaza another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30631018) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: comical fluffy range 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30144195) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Chest-beating razzle travel guidebook shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32284612) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: unhinged drab kitchen "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Black misanthropic box office mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29351706) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Overrated Hairraiser Friendly Grandma Point 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29351728) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Chocolate passionate idiot 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29351742) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Orange nudist round eye Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29351744) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: arrogant aqua theatre antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384172) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: fragrant orchestra pit generalized bond FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29351749) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: swashbuckling faggotry heaven Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29351753) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: apoplectic principal's office Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Cordovan cuckold address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29359932) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: buff adventurous hospital Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29364985) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Laughsome Space Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29392387) |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Deranged native legend Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: seedy at-the-ready bbw puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31854764) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29359811) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Lascivious Set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29359818) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Razzmatazz Crawly Digit Ratio Ceo 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29359849) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Cordovan cuckold address November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29359926) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Magical hell regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29364617) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Hideous thriller candlestick maker Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29677834) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Glittery misunderstood lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31866880) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29364607) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Vermilion stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29364621) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Stirring Famous Landscape Painting lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29364630) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Contagious maroon filthpig March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Autistic blathering meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384155) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Mustard Excitant Library 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29429271) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Histrionic people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29364847) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: irradiated center kitty lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29364873) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Offensive frozen state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29364887) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: trip sneaky criminal stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29364890) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: up-to-no-good base factory reset button Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29364896) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Vengeful Office Ladyboy Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29364933) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: swashbuckling faggotry heaven OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29383835) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: swashbuckling faggotry heaven And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Startling Chrome Theater Stage French Chef 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29383898) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: cream chapel shitlib fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29383961) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Bisexual Insane Trailer Park Place Of Business I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384107) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Ocher mother lay 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384183) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: 180 deer antler pit February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Soul-stirring nursing home You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384207) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: bossy abode hominid Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: bossy abode hominid http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384231) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: bossy abode hominid http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384237) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: bossy abode hominid http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384254) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: bossy abode hominid http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384262) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: pontificating exhilarant senate personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29525662) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Hideous thriller candlestick maker Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29677869) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Nubile Brindle Site Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32165246) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: diverse liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30504262) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Charcoal institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31172544) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: bossy abode hominid http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31846270) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31846325) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Fuchsia fortuitous meteor goal in life Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: bateful light university pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41167037) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Titillating Newt This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384232) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: hyperventilating national multi-billionaire 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29392396) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Lake Trump Supporter Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29392414) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Alcoholic Multi-colored Immigrant Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29392427) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
|
Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Galvanic well-lubricated indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29411300) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: razzle-dazzle corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29532836) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: gold flatulent casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29411342) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Mustard Excitant Library 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29429241) |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Deranged native legend flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29519032) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: bossy abode hominid ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29525598) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Hideous thriller candlestick maker Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29677890) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Galvanic well-lubricated indian lodge From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Fantasy-prone purple affirmative action chad 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29531444) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Crusty forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29531475) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: burgundy menage An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29531481) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Supple temple therapy 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29531500) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: burgundy menage I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: razzle-dazzle corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29532843) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: burgundy menage Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29535993) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Supple temple therapy No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29531557) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Charcoal institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29532829) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Mustard Excitant Library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29546163) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: costumed filthy den clown 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29551314) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Mustard Excitant Library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29554010) |
|
Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Galvanic well-lubricated indian lodge http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29559692) |
|
Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Mustard Excitant Library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29566112) |
|
Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29622950) |
|
Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
|
Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Galvanic well-lubricated indian lodge looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29677719) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Pearly federal doctorate 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29677863) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Hideous thriller candlestick maker You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29677913) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: Pearly federal doctorate No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29791782) |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: costumed filthy den clown (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31345881) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: razzle-dazzle corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37162047) |
|
Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: Twinkling public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29708433) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29727124) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: zombie-like double fault field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29727197) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29732588) |
|
Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29771453) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: Fantasy-prone purple affirmative action chad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29791735) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: charismatic sanctuary reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29791763) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29877406) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: mahogany garrison patrolman OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29877434) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: diverse liquid oxygen PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29903568) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: racy piazza The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29903615) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: Mind-boggling coral private investor turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29931652) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: Startling Chrome Theater Stage French Chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30015868) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: fighting ticket booth pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30066562) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: Chocolate passionate idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30066681) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: cream chapel shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30070592) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: soggy hall tank hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: dashing fiercely-loyal school cafeteria scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29904083) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: cream chapel shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30987707) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: white stimulating spot headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29904074) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: Chocolate passionate idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29931637) |
|
Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29960115) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29976826) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30015799) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: Fantasy-prone purple affirmative action chad yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30015891) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30065629) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: diverse liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30065970) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: curious parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30066291) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: beta tanning salon roommate truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30066549) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: swashbuckling faggotry heaven March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30070601) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30119676) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30119337) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: Offensive frozen state http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30140474) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: Beady-eyed mental disorder national security agency Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30140513) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30144174) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: pontificating exhilarant senate personal credit line jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30151942) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30151965) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: Overrated Hairraiser Friendly Grandma Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30151975) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Charcoal institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31172540) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: razzle-dazzle corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37162050) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: zippy bright tattoo nibblets lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30160689) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: zippy bright tattoo nibblets "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30161654) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30163086) |
|
Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30183235) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: zippy bright tattoo nibblets interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
|
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Vigorous resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30279158) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30307876) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: Lime Love Of Her Life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30310760) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: Saffron cuck I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30310807) |
|
Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30335375) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30346848) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30353572) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: learning disabled self-centered macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30353587) |
|
Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: Glassy boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30378951) |
|
Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: aromatic station jap Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: aromatic station jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31825048) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30392947) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30393360) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: High-end home dysfunction holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30398720) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: sepia sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30402170) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30405223) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: costumed filthy den clown 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30405346) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: trip sneaky criminal stead Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30412976) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: bossy abode hominid LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30412844) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: dashing fiercely-loyal school cafeteria scourge upon the earth Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30412994) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Vermilion stage This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30504267) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30504223) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: diverse liquid oxygen In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30504268) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Vermilion stage cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30504274) |
|
Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: bossy abode hominid lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30583536) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30746085) |
|
Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
|
Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30924907) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: heady feces whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30933127) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Charcoal institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30933205) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30956384) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: costumed filthy den clown 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30956397) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30987656) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30999290) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: boyish location depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30999301) |
|
Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: naked vibrant locale useless brakes Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31006876) |
|
Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31020363) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Hot big-titted coldplay fan Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31022942) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: zippy bright tattoo nibblets amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31023351) |
|
Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: bossy abode hominid Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31043518) |
|
Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31113817) |
|
Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: bossy abode hominid THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: costumed filthy den clown holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31172565) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: bossy abode hominid I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31172569) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: demanding wonderful international law enforcement agency LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31172627) |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: bossy abode hominid THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: costumed filthy den clown 180 i want 2 believe |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: costumed filthy den clown lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31345879) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: zippy bright tattoo nibblets ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31404088) |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Histrionic people who are hurt Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31404101) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Plum territorial hissy fit stag film September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: concupiscible garnet hairy legs September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: geriatric toaster plaza god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31413930) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Talented knife water buffalo XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31413938) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Motley gay wizard dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31413954) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: bull headed stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31443744) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: bull headed stage The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31443779) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: costumed filthy den clown let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31503555) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31482152) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31503552) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: costumed filthy den clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31503554) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: swashbuckling faggotry heaven This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31503556) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: electric kink-friendly windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31592208) |
|
Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Harsh crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#47906632) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: zippy bright tattoo nibblets http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Histrionic people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31511665) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: costumed filthy den clown 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31511673) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Saffron cuck This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31512070) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Vigorous resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31513385) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Indecent church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31592192) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: costumed filthy den clown hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31594952) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Confused Slap-happy Stain Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31594953) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: costumed filthy den clown doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31594954) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Indigo impertinent partner locus half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31594956) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: zippy bright tattoo nibblets nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
|
|
Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Hot big-titted coldplay fan close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31763265) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Charcoal institution Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31772625) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Talented knife water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31777531) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: ruddy shivering school brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31782180) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Ocher mother lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31786832) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: zippy bright tattoo nibblets prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31825019) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Hairless Odious Preventive Strike You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31833310) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: zippy bright tattoo nibblets true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31833315) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: bossy abode hominid ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31839758) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: zippy bright tattoo nibblets ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31844114) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Cracking shimmering background story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31842891) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: peach business firm internal respiration Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: zombie-like double fault field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31843660) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: bull headed stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31844292) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31844674) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: khaki milk marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31846281) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Plum territorial hissy fit stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31846326) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: nighttime fishy cuckoldry queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31846448) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31848552) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Talented knife water buffalo GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31848608) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: khaki milk marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31848693) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Hot big-titted coldplay fan it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31848755) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: trip sneaky criminal stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31848775) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: arousing mediation theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32044462) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Glittery misunderstood lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32076291) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Nubile Brindle Site Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32165256) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Exciting Milky Step-uncle's House Crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48187313) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Provocative Flushed Parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31848725) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Talking blue cruise ship Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31849301) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Cerebral market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31849447) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: pungent house 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: arousing mediation theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31851790) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Charcoal institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31852918) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31854576) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Vermilion stage this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31854584) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: costumed filthy den clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31855383) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: sienna black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31855482) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31863076) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: abnormal floppy gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31863082) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Awkward carmine property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31863093) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: bossy abode hominid November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Orange nudist round eye you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31863503) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: gold flatulent casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31866924) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Pearly federal doctorate Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31868448) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: geriatric toaster plaza bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31866864) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: transparent area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31867005) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: bossy abode hominid sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: zippy bright tattoo nibblets ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31868235) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: mahogany garrison patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31868543) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: bull headed stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31907692) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: spectacular know-it-all dilemma telephone They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31907697) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: violent dragon Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32055646) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Nubile Brindle Site Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32165261) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Exciting Milky Step-uncle's House Crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48187317) |
|
Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31989410) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: flickering cumskin sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32044435) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Indigo impertinent partner locus GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32055631) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Sick appetizing community account https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32076268) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: geriatric toaster plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32076292) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: flickering cumskin sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32076345) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32284600) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: bossy abode hominid ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32284631) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
|
Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#39686962) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: geriatric toaster plaza truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32284649) |
|
Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32389095) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32412323) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32416346) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Indecent church building TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32441222) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32441238) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: aphrodisiac haunted graveyard I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Indecent church building it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32441319) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32458110) |
|
Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32466804) |
|
Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32560776) |
|
Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32612572) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32714310) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#33221553) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#33222883) |
|
Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Lemon underhanded masturbator toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34257967) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Chocolate passionate idiot this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32441221) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Talented knife water buffalo One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32714399) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: razzle-dazzle corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32891711) |
|
Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#33097887) |
|
Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#33256991) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#33605191) |
|
Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: bossy abode hominid What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: bossy abode hominid https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34449074) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34449102) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Red church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34449138) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34615930) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Massive alpha credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34615959) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Marvelous New Version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34636123) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Haunting Vivacious Son Of Senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34636459) |
|
Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: crimson weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34673088) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34948560) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: costumed filthy den clown Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34948572) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34950581) |
|
Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#35278621) |
|
Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: geriatric toaster plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#36168381) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#36451135) |
|
Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#36458802) |
|
Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Motley gay wizard dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#36847087) |
|
Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Overrated Hairraiser Friendly Grandma Point It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#36973680) |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: bossy abode hominid lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#36973690) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: geriatric toaster plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37090167) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: concupiscible garnet hairy legs Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37090191) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Hideous thriller candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37161974) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: geriatric toaster plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37161955) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: razzle-dazzle corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37162045) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: geriatric toaster plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37167335) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37553376) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Snowy Degenerate Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37833345) |
|
Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: bossy abode hominid Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
|
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Hideous thriller candlestick maker There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#38431500) |
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: lilac mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#38431431) |
|
Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#39135638) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Talented knife water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#39583415) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#39583624) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#39849854) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: abusive roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#39849877) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: heady feces whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#39938878) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40097972) |
|
Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: bossy abode hominid https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: heady feces whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40354730) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Aquamarine Rigor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40355911) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: heady feces whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40896459) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Talented knife water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40896523) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Black misanthropic box office mexican Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40896526) |
|
Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Godawful Jet Philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40908695) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Mad-dog Skullcap Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40977795) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: lilac mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41079968) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41088157) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41166967) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: arousing mediation theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41166990) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: bateful light university pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41167039) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: bateful light university pisswyrm https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41167053) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Slimy Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#44203011) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: bossy abode hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41200021) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: razzle-dazzle corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41202581) |
|
Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: lilac mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41222868) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Jade buck-toothed becky bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41261120) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#44196611) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: rebellious doobsian laser beams gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#44202968) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Dark sexy foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#44202984) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Gaped 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#44203017) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#44911871) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Black misanthropic box office mexican A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#44911874) |
|
Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#45378008) |
|
Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: bossy abode hominid Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: bossy abode hominid https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#46237455) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Vermilion stage why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#46237460) |
|
Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Mad-dog Skullcap Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#46252623) |
|
Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Harsh crackhouse FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
|
Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#47428670) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Mad-dog Skullcap Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#47430198) |
|
Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
|
Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48010724) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Mad-dog Skullcap Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48087201) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Black misanthropic box office mexican One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48087224) |
|
Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Mad-dog Skullcap Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48211967) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Exciting Milky Step-uncle's House Crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48187302) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48296972) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: trip sneaky criminal stead 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48715841) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: trip sneaky criminal stead https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48715847) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Motley gay wizard dingle berry Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Exciting Milky Step-uncle's House Crotch The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48715863) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: bespoke ruby boiling water He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48715869) |
|
Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Rambunctious corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48716330) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48724299) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: jet-lagged yarmulke 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48724306) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48727216) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Twisted rehab voyeur Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48727802) |
|
Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: goy orbison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#49679495) |