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I feel dumb that I don't understand the "21" movie's game theory hypo - video
Poast new message in this thread
Date: June 26th, 2026 10:53 AM Author: stimulating space https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYyUuIXzGgI&t=68s
At what IQ level does this make sense? Seems like once the goat is revealed in one of the three doors, it would be 50/50 whether the car was in one of the two remaining doors or the other.
But apparently not- really smart bros say it makes sense to change your guess:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vRUxbzJZ9Y |
Date: June 26th, 2026 10:54 AM Author: awkward boltzmann plaza they got it wrong in the movie
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem |
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Date: June 26th, 2026 10:59 AM Author: stimulating space This makes me feel better:
Many readers of Savant's column refused to believe switching is beneficial and rejected her explanation. After the problem appeared in Parade, approximately 10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with PhDs, wrote to the magazine, most of them calling Savant wrong.[4] Even when given explanations, simulations, and formal mathematical proofs, many people still did not accept that switching is the best strategy.[5] Paul Erdős, one of the most prolific mathematicians in history, remained unconvinced until he was shown a computer simulation demonstrating Savant's predicted result.
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If this only makes sense at extreme IQ levels, it's one of the best tests for such extreme IQs that I've seen. I simply don't get it, even as explained in your Wiki link. |
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Date: June 26th, 2026 11:02 AM Author: awkward boltzmann plaza an easy shorthand for this is you initially select a door without any information = 1/3 chance
then he opens one door with a goat so now you are making a choice knowing it's 50/50 which is better than 1/3 |
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Date: June 26th, 2026 6:22 PM Author: Startling Foreskin No, in a three door scenario you go from 33% to 66%. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49964563) |
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Date: June 26th, 2026 8:09 PM Author: zippy home It's fairly straightforward and if you don't get it you probably just never will. Do you find poker and stock market investing either uninteresting or excessively capricious? Then you're just not wired for this type of thinking (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49964786) |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 8:27 AM Author: Magical Temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49965230) |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 8:59 AM Author: spectacular set dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49965254) |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 8:20 AM Author: buff tanning salon It’s only confusing because the “problem” has a hidden premise: that the door removed is always empty, so the one that remains has a 50/50 shot of being a winner rather than a 1/3rd shot. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49965226) |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 12:15 PM Author: chocolate antidepressant drug stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49965385) |
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Date: June 28th, 2026 10:24 AM Author: zippy home No, the remaining closed door has a 2/3 shot after one door is opened (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49966852) |
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Date: June 28th, 2026 11:21 AM Author: buff tanning salon I’m not saying you’re wrong but can you show your math (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49966910) |
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Date: June 28th, 2026 11:43 AM Author: Startling Foreskin Consider the three possible outcomes if there are three doors. Let's say the prize is in door 1.
If you choose door 1 and switch you'll lose.
If you choose door 2, the host will open door 3, and switching will always win.
If you choose door 3, the host will open door 2, and switching will always win.
See how in 2 of the 3 possible scenarios switching is always the winning move? |
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Date: June 29th, 2026 11:05 AM Author: buff tanning salon This checks out (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49968925) |
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Date: June 29th, 2026 11:10 AM Author: chocolate antidepressant drug stead Right, if you switch you're betting that your first guess was wrong. You're saying back when I had a 33% chance I missed. And it's obviously more likely than not that you missed the first time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49968938) |
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Date: June 29th, 2026 11:19 AM Author: Startling Foreskin Sure that's obvious, but people have a harder time understanding why its 66% and not 50%. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49968962) |
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Date: June 29th, 2026 11:32 AM Author: chocolate antidepressant drug stead Yeah I guess I did when I was a kid too. Because it feels like 50/50 because there are two doors. So ur brain thinks it's a tossup. Not realizing that the odds are much lower when you picked the first door and the odds change if you switch. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49968977) |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 12:20 PM Author: chocolate antidepressant drug stead Let's say there's a thousand doors and the money is behind door 791. You have a 1 in a thousand chance right. And you have no idea which door it's behind. OK it's your turn to pick a door. You pick door 62. You think well, I have a one in a thousand shot. Fuck that's low. I mean obviously the door you threw out doesn't have the money behind it. Heh.
Now let's say the game removes 998 doors all of which don't have the money behind them. You're down to either your initial guess of 62 or door 791. It's a binary choice but you KNOW that the money is behind one of the two doors.
Now would you bet that your initial guess out of 1000 possible answers was correct, or the other door which is the only door that hasn't yet been removed? By switching doors your odds skyrocket. You're betting that your initial guess was wrong. You had a 0.1% chance of being right on your first guess. But if you switch you're picking the only door that hasn't been taken off the board. The money is REALLY PROBABLY ALMOST CERTAINLY behind door 791. Unless you got balls to the wall lucky on your initial guess (you almost certainly didn't), the money is in the other door. |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 7:18 PM Author: stimulating space Best explanation I've seen. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49966221) |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 7:22 PM Author: chocolate antidepressant drug stead I'm Obama tier at communication (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49966228) |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 7:52 PM Author: stimulating space I now understand it at the same level as the guys in this thread who say, in a three door hypo, switching is going from 33% to 50% chance of being right. So definitely worth doing.
But the "correct" answer is apparently that you go from 33.3% to 66.6% by switching. Got an Obama-tier explanation for why it's 66.6% and not 50%? |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 9:07 PM Author: chocolate antidepressant drug stead Lmao no. I'm a wordcel. Ask a shape rotator. Numbers is confusing. Just hire an azn to do maths. Hth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49966359) |
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Date: June 28th, 2026 10:35 AM Author: zippy home In the 1000 door scenario you go to 99.9% chance of being right if you switch, and 0.1% that your initial guess was correct. But your initial chance of being right was also 0.1% before any doors were opened. That probability never changes. With three doors your initial chance was 33% and after one door is opened it's still 33%. The remaining single door now has the remaining 67%.
You can also consider it this way: either door 1 2 or 3 has the goat. If you pick 1 and it's in 1, you lose by switching. That happens 1/3 of the time. But 2/3 of the time that you pick 1 you'll be wrong because it'll be in either 2 or 3. In 100% of those cases, the host will eliminate all of the empty doors for you and leave a "goat" door 100% of the time. If it's in 2, he'll open door 3 100% of the time. If it's in 3, he'll open door 2 100% of the time. So the 2/3 of the time that you've picked an empty door, he'll open the only remaining empty door 100% of the time and leave a guaranteed goat in the unopened door 100% of the time. |
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Date: June 26th, 2026 11:29 AM Author: magenta effete nursing home Not game theory (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49963997) |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 12:11 PM Author: narrow-minded thriller tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49965378) |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 8:03 PM Author: insanely creepy charismatic abode private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49966270) |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 9:53 PM Author: mentally impaired immigrant toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49966448) |
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Date: June 28th, 2026 10:57 AM Author: Exhilarant Famous Landscape Painting CR (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49966885) |
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Date: June 26th, 2026 6:04 PM Author: concupiscible doctorate clown Originally, u get a 1/3
On the 2nd pick "switch" u get a 1/2
Ur insane if u dont change it to a 50/50 by changing doors, ur basically assuming u won a 1/3 off the bat (insane)
just switch |
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Date: June 26th, 2026 7:07 PM Author: bateful federal spot your math is wrong but you are right you should switch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49964642) |
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Date: June 26th, 2026 7:09 PM Author: Startling Foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49964646) |
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Date: June 26th, 2026 7:16 PM Author: concupiscible doctorate clown ? its two doors its a 50/50 on the 2nd go lol at libs |
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Date: June 26th, 2026 7:24 PM Author: cracking chrome french chef station the complement of a 1/3 outcome is 2/3 friend imagine if there was one goat in 100 doors and the tv host opened 98 empty ones |
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Date: June 26th, 2026 7:31 PM Author: concupiscible doctorate clown libs are insane u already wana import 100 illegial alien doors into the hypo im shutting this shit down (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49964717) |
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Date: June 26th, 2026 7:34 PM Author: cracking chrome french chef station well we need to hide the goats so pakis can't furk them (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49964724) |
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Date: June 26th, 2026 7:29 PM Author: Startling Foreskin No, it's 66%.
The way the Monty Hall problem is explained to people that can't understand it is if there were a 100 doors and the host closed 98, switching becomes obvious because you know you only had a 1% chance of picking correctly initially. But if that was still only 50/50 it makes no sense why 100 doors is such an obvious switch. With 100 doors you intuitively understand that switching is a far greater chance that switching is superior to staying (99%). The same is true with 3 doors. |
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Date: June 26th, 2026 8:54 PM Author: self-centered bat shit crazy mood keepsake machete Now. How low is your iq if you still dont understand? |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 8:24 PM Author: stimulating space There are different kinds of thought/intelligence. Some people can learn a foreign language with little effort at all, while they would score only average on the math SATs. My college and law school grades were always better than my standardized tests suggested I would get. Thankfully for me, federal judges and law firms hire based on law school grades, not LSAT scores. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49966276) |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 8:27 AM Author: Magical Temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49965228) |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 1:09 PM Author: contagious mother the puzzle is often stated incorrectly. it must be made clear that the host will always, no matter what, open a door and use his knowledge to assure that he opens a door with a goat. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49965495) |
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Date: June 27th, 2026 10:51 PM Author: Abnormal vigorous parlor trump supporter lol at trusting the “intelligence” of someone who hasn’t watched enough episodes of let’s make a deal such that this implication is obvious. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49966561) |
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Date: June 28th, 2026 10:05 AM Author: Startling Foreskin *Opens one of the unpicked doors*
*It's the grand prize*
"Oh hmmm, guess you lost. Well that was a bit anticlimactic." |
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Date: June 28th, 2026 10:42 AM Author: Crystalline Water Buffalo Mediation You don't have to understand something to participate in it. We're alive, aren't we? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49966867) |
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Date: June 28th, 2026 10:56 AM Author: Exhilarant Famous Landscape Painting A simple way to think about it is this: because the host always eliminates a losing door from the two unchosen doors, switching is the equivalent of giving an “either door A or door B” answer at the beginning. If you stick with your first choice, you had better be right at the beginning (1/3). Switching gives you the whole other side of the original odds (2/3). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2)#49966884) |