\
  The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
BackRefresh Options Favorite

Polymarket screwing over traders re Venezuela

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Un...
duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel
  01/06/26
get a life you fucking dork
confused coffee pot
  01/06/26
get off this bort you closeted fag
duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel
  01/06/26
you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you ...
confused coffee pot
  01/06/26
you are literally a closeted fag
duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel
  01/06/26
you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.
confused coffee pot
  01/07/26
i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes&qu...
Big Indian Lodge
  01/06/26
LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking bl...
Slimy psychic
  01/06/26
It's fraud they need to pay out
jet den stock car
  01/06/26
The market is about an "invasion." It's about taki...
Coral Weed Whacker Blood Rage
  01/06/26
The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of a...
Cerebral rehab national security agency
  01/06/26
Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) d...
Coral Weed Whacker Blood Rage
  01/06/26
Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the int...
jet den stock car
  01/06/26
The market is for an invasion. The definition requires estab...
Coral Weed Whacker Blood Rage
  01/06/26
https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites...
Cerebral rehab national security agency
  01/06/26
The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls...
Cerebral rehab national security agency
  01/06/26
seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt inten...
slap-happy crimson stag film
  01/06/26
(Peter Thiel)
duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel
  01/06/26
yes its not like orange man said we run it now
Wonderful point
  01/06/26
I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.
pearly magical sanctuary toilet seat
  01/06/26
Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this?...
jet den stock car
  01/06/26
usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting&rd...
duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel
  01/06/26
...
Coral Weed Whacker Blood Rage
  01/06/26
cr
Bonkers ceo
  01/06/26
...
ultramarine location
  01/07/26
IRL Topicality moment
saffron sound barrier native
  01/06/26
...
pea-brained philosopher-king
  01/06/26
companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhau...
yellow histrionic house juggernaut
  01/06/26
It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate w...
jet den stock car
  01/06/26
(guy who no longer has $1,600)
yellow histrionic house juggernaut
  01/06/26
...
slap-happy crimson stag film
  01/06/26
...
orange thriller quadroon
  01/07/26
It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after ...
heady nursing home mad-dog skullcap
  01/06/26
...
Cerebral rehab national security agency
  01/06/26
There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The ter...
jet den stock car
  01/06/26
Obvious yes But this is why you don't bet on stuff like t...
Cerebral rehab national security agency
  01/06/26
This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterar...
Coral Weed Whacker Blood Rage
  01/06/26
cr, not a close call imo
slap-happy crimson stag film
  01/06/26
Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so cle...
duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel
  01/06/26
The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said ...
Coral Weed Whacker Blood Rage
  01/06/26
Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago.&qu...
Cerebral rehab national security agency
  01/06/26
This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "co...
jet den stock car
  01/06/26
this. it was a military offensive intended to establish cont...
Big Indian Lodge
  01/06/26
Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acr...
jet den stock car
  01/06/26
So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't ma...
jet den stock car
  01/06/26
are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling...
Trip church kitty cat
  01/06/26
the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so ...
duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel
  01/06/26
If there was a breaking news report that “the us is in...
Mind-boggling Rambunctious Abode
  01/06/26
His house was invaded (briefly)
Idiotic Parlour Preventive Strike
  01/06/26
...
Idiotic Parlour Preventive Strike
  01/06/26
I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.
Passionate Spot Toaster
  01/06/26
I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise
Idiotic Parlour Preventive Strike
  01/07/26
Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game https://x.com...
duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel
  01/07/26
now this is just a straight up scam
slap-happy crimson stag film
  01/07/26
Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?
jet den stock car
  01/07/26
Just made 60,000 dollars
pea-brained philosopher-king
  01/07/26
?
Idiotic Parlour Preventive Strike
  01/07/26
i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" h...
Big Indian Lodge
  01/07/26
...
Idiotic Parlour Preventive Strike
  01/10/26


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:52 PM
Author: duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767732697146

https://x.com/trader_53/status/2008545328824549664?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567156)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:35 PM
Author: confused coffee pot

get a life you fucking dork

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567289)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:42 PM
Author: duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel

get off this bort you closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567303)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: confused coffee pot

you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you are a dick chopping tranny retard pedophile. the world would be better off if you'd just go away once and for all.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567306)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:03 PM
Author: duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel

you are literally a closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567363)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 9:45 AM
Author: confused coffee pot

you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568632)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:56 PM
Author: Big Indian Lodge

i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes". they defined it pretty broadly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567168)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:29 PM
Author: Slimy psychic

LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking black bag what kind of bullshit is this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567271)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: jet den stock car

It's fraud they need to pay out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567336)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: Coral Weed Whacker Blood Rage

The market is about an "invasion." It's about taking and controlling territory. That hasn't happened. It still might by the end of the month.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567449)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:41 PM
Author: Cerebral rehab national security agency

The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of abducting its head of state was to establish control of Venezuela. The operation was successful

You are confusing the words "control" and "occupy"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567472)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: Coral Weed Whacker Blood Rage

Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) does the US control? The US doesn't control Venezuela via an invasion any more than the US uses its power to influence a lot of countries.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567477)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: jet den stock car

Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the intent to deprive Venezuela of that territory. Even a peppercorn of time is enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567484)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: Coral Weed Whacker Blood Rage

The market is for an invasion. The definition requires establishing control of a portion of territory.

Could you point on a map to which portion of Venezuelan territory the US invaded with the intent to control? You're right that it could be a small portion.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567491)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: Cerebral rehab national security agency

https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/oe_theme_medium_no_crop/public/2019-02/venezuela_en.png?itok=aeBbLnHe

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567497)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: Cerebral rehab national security agency

The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls the country of Venezuela, as a statement of fact, as demonstrated by the fact that it can simply remove its nominal political "head of state" at will, whenever it wants, as it just did

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567492)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:33 PM
Author: slap-happy crimson stag film

seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt intend to control any area of Venezuela, they captured its president and are pressuring the current government to do their will.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567286)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:43 PM
Author: duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel

(Peter Thiel)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567304)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: Wonderful point

yes its not like orange man said we run it now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567305)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:50 PM
Author: pearly magical sanctuary toilet seat

I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567316)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:57 PM
Author: jet den stock car

Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this? Maduro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567341)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel

usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting” but they removed that language since it would make it harder to screw over their traders

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567356)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: Coral Weed Whacker Blood Rage



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567479)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:35 PM
Author: Bonkers ceo

cr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567713)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:45 AM
Author: ultramarine location



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568504)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:45 PM
Author: saffron sound barrier native

IRL Topicality moment

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567307)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:54 PM
Author: pea-brained philosopher-king



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567330)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: yellow histrionic house juggernaut

companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhaustively draft out the terms of selling you toilet paper, and they still leave ambiguities. why would anyone ever expect that degens gambling on geopolitical upheavals described in a blurb with no transparency or accountability would be a good idea?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567334)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:59 PM
Author: jet den stock car

It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate when it arrested him, and the estate is located in Venezuela. Even if the control was only fleeting, it damn sure wasn't unintentional

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567348)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:02 PM
Author: yellow histrionic house juggernaut

(guy who no longer has $1,600)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567360)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:13 PM
Author: slap-happy crimson stag film



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567396)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 6:19 AM
Author: orange thriller quadroon



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568389)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: heady nursing home mad-dog skullcap

It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after the fact. It's a feature.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567517)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:00 PM
Author: Cerebral rehab national security agency



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567526)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:11 PM
Author: jet den stock car

There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The terms are clear.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567542)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: Cerebral rehab national security agency

Obvious yes

But this is why you don't bet on stuff like this tbh. I wouldn't even put a substantial sum of money on an election on these platforms. You always run the risk of some Jewish bullshit like this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567354)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:33 PM
Author: Coral Weed Whacker Blood Rage

This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterargument that isn't just based on feelings?

The market is "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" And they define "invasion" as "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela."

Dropping some special ops in for a limited time to extract the president is far from an invasion--i.e., an "offensive intended to establish control over" over territory. If there were boots on the ground to take and hold territory, it would be another thing. But there are not and have not been.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567445)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: slap-happy crimson stag film

cr, not a close call imo

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567451)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:37 PM
Author: duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel

Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so clear that they even had to address it in their statement screwing people over. There must’ve been a huge whale or polymarket insider on the other side of that trade

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567465)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: Coral Weed Whacker Blood Rage

The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said we're going to "lock Her up." Where are we on that?)

The market is for an invasion controlling Venezuelan territory. That hasn't happened.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567485)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: Cerebral rehab national security agency

Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567493)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: jet den stock car

This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela." Trump doesn't have to actually run anything, he only has to commence a military offensive with that intent. Having actual control is sufficient but not NECESSARY to prove intent.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567498)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:54 PM
Author: Big Indian Lodge

this. it was a military offensive intended to establish control over caracas generally and at the very least maduro's residence for however long it was necessary in order to capture him.

the issue here is "control" and the time period it takes to constitute it. polymarket thought they were describing something more permanent and substantial, but they didn't spell that out and i think it's hard to argue that landing a bunch of helicopters into maduro's front yard, killing his security guards, and forcibly removing him wasn't taking "control" of his house which is a "portion" of venezuela. "intent" is there the minute you give the order.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567509)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: jet den stock car

Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acres of land in Venezuela for a period of some several minutes, and not by accident

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567514)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: jet den stock car

So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't make DHS pay full price for hotel rooms?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567489)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:10 PM
Author: Trip church kitty cat

are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling platform is being legalistic and dishonest? LOL.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567539)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:20 PM
Author: duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel

the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so it doesn’t really make sense for polymarket to screw over their users. they’re just a bookie. unless a polymarket insider or whale with connections was on the other side of the trade and pulled some strings. either way what they’re doing is dishonest. at a minimum they should not have titled the market “invade” if sending the military into foreign sovereign territory and arresting its president doesn’t count.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567682)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:31 PM
Author: Mind-boggling Rambunctious Abode

If there was a breaking news report that “the us is invading Venezuela” no one would be like “but that already happened”.

The common sense version says this wasn’t an invasion and nothing in their terms is enough to override that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567704)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:15 PM
Author: Idiotic Parlour Preventive Strike

His house was invaded (briefly)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567813)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:11 PM
Author: Idiotic Parlour Preventive Strike



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567795)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:17 PM
Author: Passionate Spot Toaster

I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567818)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 5:48 AM
Author: Idiotic Parlour Preventive Strike

I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568381)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 7:59 AM
Author: duck-like internet-worthy milk chapel

Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game

https://x.com/dustingouker/status/2008748429024133125?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568440)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:16 AM
Author: slap-happy crimson stag film

now this is just a straight up scam

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568452)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:18 AM
Author: jet den stock car

Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568453)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:16 AM
Author: pea-brained philosopher-king

Just made 60,000 dollars

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568707)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:29 AM
Author: Idiotic Parlour Preventive Strike

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568727)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:30 AM
Author: Big Indian Lodge

i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" here. the terms are so broad even a child could make a reasonable argument for "yes".

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568730)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 10th, 2026 10:01 PM
Author: Idiotic Parlour Preventive Strike



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49579920)