this is not a mystery and these months of huffing and puffing are simply ridiculous

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203411)

Strange abandonment of the 1st amendment, embracing censorship in the name of social good despite being the origin of a great deal of misinformation.

Divisive social engineering techniques, including the open border disaster. American school districts and municipalities are now burdened with the high costs of accommodating the migrants.

Open judicial warfares on people deemed the opposition. See Trump prosecutions in New York, delegitimizing the legal system and undermining confidence in neutrality of American courts.

Entanglement in Ukraine, including allowing it to happen in the first place, and pouring hundreds of billions into an endless quagmire while can't muster a decent response to hurricanes in the US alone.

The list goes on. Look, I'm well off, I'm substantially richer today than I was four years ago. But it doesn't mean I still don't think we've veered off into a damaging direction under the Biden administration, or rather, whoever is running the show in the name of Joe Biden. It's not just economics. It's more than the stock market.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203540)

this specific post-covid inflation is largely captured by corporate profits

i have no problem with this inflation because my investments are growing fast since all that inflation is being funneled into stock prices

sounds like ur poor

or, put another way, the elites have tricked you and your fellow proles into thinking it's the fault of the government that you can't buy as much as you used to, when it's really their fault

enjoy being poor, i'll enjoy being richer and richer as you keep blaming the wrong people while i know who's really to blame and am making my financial decisions accordingly

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203911)

This is the common opinion of the "elite" that support Kamala and the juicy part is that's why she's going to lose.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203927)

The fact is that there are some Trump voters that just are unreachable. Nothing you can do about that.

Meanwhile you can be certain Kamala voters are all accounted for.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203437)

This thread is literally about what they are doing about that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203445)

Polls understated Trump in '16 & '20 largely because they understated his support among white voters.

Sure, they understated everyone, but whites really made the margin. Oh and btw, Trump is now gathering historic margins of black and Latino voters.

If that's the case again and there's no real error for non-whites, we're all going to be very, VERY wrong.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203454)

This technique has historically been disfavored because some people don't recall who they voted for (that may surprise you, but bear in mind the undecideds that everyone's trying to reach tend to be huge fucking morons), and there's been shown to be a tendency for ppl to say they voted for the winner even if they didn't. This technique thus carries with it a risk of undersampling *actual* biden-2020 voters and thus shortchanging harris (e.g., think of a dude who was really a TRUMP-TRUMP 2020-2024 voter being counted as a biden-TRUMP 2020-2024 flipper).

This effect might be mitigated by biden's unpopularity, but mostly pollsters are just dead-set on not undersampling maga again, even if they err in the opposite direction.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203954)

Now imagine the Trump voters that are unreachable.

https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1845874626485793127

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203965)

The plausible case for an anti-TRUMP error (i.e., one that works in TRUMP's favor on election night) is obvious since it's happened twice before. But there's a plausible case for an anti-Harris error, too, since polling firms have done every fucking thing short of just adding +4 to the final TRUMP number to try to correct their past mistakes.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203993)

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203530)

Trump is winning the enthusiasm war.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203515)

the fact it's become socially acceptable to support trump is huge shift.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203531)

meanwhile i didn't see many cons saying the kamala's surge wasn't happening.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203556)

In all seriousness, while a reasoned mind can't ignore the official data from the official polls showing a slight H lead or neck to neck, at the same time I also can't ignore most of the polling companies are run by the people with the same mindsets and biases as the idiots who created the Men for Kamala ad. And there's reading the tea leaves. The emergence of articles from D-leaning papers and publications talking about disagreements and tensions in the Harris campaign, tacitly admitting it's run by biased idiots who have no idea of an America outside college campuses. The emergence of articles in European presses featuring staid EU bureaucrats talking about how they can work with Donald Trump. You can sense the mood shifting in a way that the polls don't officially capture. There's an element of narrativism at play here and things are falling into place to make it happen.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203592)

as "unscientific" as it may be, there is some value is going with your gut. after all, all your gut instinct is your brain's analysis of a great aggregate of factors, many of which you don't even consciously realize. the same way you are probably right trust your senses that an area is dangerous even if it's not reflected in crime data.

if "trust the experts" always worked than trump would never have been president. just listen to all the "expert economists" talk about how great the economy is. sometimes it's better to just trust your eyes and experience. you can tell the economy sucks because you see people struggling to maintain a lifestyle that was obtainable in the past, regardless of how enthusiastically krugman points to GDP and the fraudmarket, or how many nobel prizes he is awarded.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203657)

BTW, he will likely win all of them.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203572)

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/16/kamala-harris-pennsylvania-campaign-drama-00183844

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203626)

i just look for polls that have a large sample size and were accurate in the past. for example, in georgia uga said in 2020 that georgia was about even but leaning in favor of biden, which is exactly how the race shook out. and they're trump +3 right now.

i'm sure silver's model weighing polls based on quality has more rigor, but georgia doesn't "feel" even to me right now, +3 seems more in line with the attitudes i've seen.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203612)

But it does bring up an interesting topic. What will the Ds do if T wins, and T likely can only win along with a trifecta, with R control of the house and senate. The hysteria will be both amusing and scary.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203643)

https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1846328577970655717

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203648)

As long as Obama/Pelosi are calling the shots -- party is fucked.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203867)

I have no idea if this is propaganda, outright falsehood, not significant, or if this is in fact a harbinger

If the latter, we could be in for bad news

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203582)

Time to start deleting poasts and gassing dirtbike.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203608)

why risk the prying eyes when you dump thousands of votes on election day? Just run up a big fake lead in october, when no one is looking or caring.

"Well Kamala begins Pennsylvania with a 15,000 lead...." and by that point the shenanigans are weeks old and evidence is cold

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203619)

You have to understand that Dem mail ins in 2020 cut into their early vote numbers. In 2020, mail ins essentially was the early vote. Combined, we see significant decreases in both requests and early voting totals for Dems and massive increases for Reps.

Dems are banking on huge Election Day turnout and it's unclear that they're going to get it.

In fact, I'd argue there is little to no evidence they will. It's cope.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48203618)

The main reason I think Trump is favored is the attitude of both campaigns. The Trump campaign seems to be focused on closing the deal, whereas the Harris campaign seems in meltdown mode. Lots of stories of internal panic, tons of leaks to the press reporting infighting, wild shifts in messaging (“Trump must release his cholesterol levels!” “Legalize weed and free crypto for black people!”), and a sudden flurry of interviews after avoiding the press entirely. Harris is flush with cash, so I assume she has daily polling in all the battlegrounds (much more current and accurate than the public polls) and it’s not looking good, combined with poor EV data (using much more sophisticated analytics than the garbage on Twitter). They’re not behaving like a winning campaign, or even a campaign in a 50/50 race.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48205103)

It was a worthwhile interview. The comments about the polls alone forever changed how I look them.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48205552)

At this point, only 1/1000 people are probably picking up to answer a fucking poll. And it's a really weird subset of people.

The pollsters know this - so they're doing all sorts of extrapolation and adjustments on their end. But the polls are really "models" at this point - and no one knows if they're right or not because so much has changed in the past 4-8 years and there isn't a lot of data points.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612476&forum_id=2)#48206101)