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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| irradiated mexican | 12/10/15 |
| Apoplectic elite range degenerate | 12/12/15 |
| irradiated mexican | 01/02/17 |
| Swashbuckling patrolman | 01/06/16 |
| Motley mood | 01/06/16 |
| Motley mood | 06/05/16 |
| violet greedy location | 03/26/16 |
| bateful immigrant | 01/02/17 |
| Mind-boggling Home | 10/25/18 |
| Mentally impaired hairy legs coldplay fan | 12/10/15 |
| Cream Chad | 12/10/15 |
| Translucent At-the-ready Incel Marketing Idea | 12/10/15 |
| Crimson ungodly gunner hominid | 12/10/15 |
| flickering heaven idea he suggested | 12/15/15 |
| Fragrant Dingle Berry | 12/10/15 |
| Bright nursing home | 12/10/15 |
| Hideous brilliant sneaky criminal | 12/10/15 |
| poppy outnumbered clown | 12/11/15 |
| marvelous saffron selfie community account | 12/12/15 |
| dark trust fund | 12/16/15 |
| Yellow Plaza | 01/04/16 |
| brindle parlor telephone | 11/09/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 12/11/15 |
| Pearly laughsome address | 12/11/15 |
| Odious Domesticated Property Circlehead | 12/11/15 |
| poppy outnumbered clown | 12/11/15 |
| Wine School Cafeteria Stain | 12/12/15 |
| Cerebral salmon gaping space | 01/25/16 |
| curious center | 11/10/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 12/12/15 |
| Self-absorbed dull ratface | 12/12/15 |
| Soul-stirring theater | 12/12/15 |
| Lilac pervert | 12/12/15 |
| Talented tanning salon boltzmann | 12/15/15 |
| clear vigorous school useless brakes | 12/21/15 |
| Crystalline personal credit line brunch | 12/12/15 |
| soggy wagecucks | 12/12/15 |
| deranged hissy fit | 12/12/15 |
| bearded abusive theater stage | 12/12/15 |
| titillating casino messiness | 12/12/15 |
| embarrassed to the bone trip alpha giraffe | 12/12/15 |
| Bright nursing home | 12/15/15 |
| Bright nursing home | 12/16/15 |
| Appetizing hot locale multi-billionaire | 12/15/15 |
| heady principal's office | 12/15/15 |
| Pontificating Awkward Regret Mother | 12/15/15 |
| Cowardly dysfunction | 12/15/15 |
| big cerise friendly grandma theatre | 12/15/15 |
| charismatic hyperactive old irish cottage generalized bond | 12/15/15 |
| irradiated mexican | 12/15/15 |
| irradiated mexican | 12/15/15 |
| irradiated mexican | 12/15/15 |
| irradiated mexican | 12/15/15 |
| irradiated mexican | 12/15/15 |
| lemon step-uncle's house | 01/05/16 |
| Cerebral salmon gaping space | 01/25/16 |
| Aquamarine Brethren Halford | 12/17/16 |
| impertinent razzmatazz menage shitlib | 05/18/16 |
| Arousing Resort Karate | 08/12/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 11/09/16 |
| Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad | 11/09/16 |
| red filthy stag film background story | 11/09/16 |
| Floppy Onyx Garrison | 10/22/20 |
| Sexy Kitty Electric Furnace | 12/15/15 |
| sickened lime roast beef senate | 12/16/15 |
| vibrant lake scourge upon the earth | 12/16/15 |
| Emerald doctorate | 12/16/15 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 12/16/15 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 12/17/15 |
| bisexual gay wizard | 12/18/15 |
| Swashbuckling patrolman | 01/06/16 |
| diverse fuchsia private investor | 12/18/15 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 12/21/15 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 12/21/15 |
| clear vigorous school useless brakes | 12/21/15 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 12/30/15 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 12/30/15 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 01/04/16 |
| Yellow Plaza | 01/04/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 01/05/16 |
| Cerebral salmon gaping space | 01/25/16 |
| bisexual gay wizard | 01/05/16 |
| big-titted factory reset button | 01/05/16 |
| Claret Vivacious Stage Coffee Pot | 01/05/16 |
| unhinged cuck | 01/05/16 |
| slippery honey-headed crotch legend | 01/05/16 |
| unhinged cuck | 01/05/16 |
| Swashbuckling patrolman | 01/06/16 |
| unhinged cuck | 01/06/16 |
| slippery honey-headed crotch legend | 01/05/16 |
| Arousing Resort Karate | 01/06/16 |
| clear vigorous school useless brakes | 01/07/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 01/08/16 |
| Razzle bipolar tank | 01/08/16 |
| clear vigorous school useless brakes | 01/08/16 |
| bisexual gay wizard | 01/09/16 |
| clear vigorous school useless brakes | 01/10/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 01/18/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 01/19/16 |
| bisexual gay wizard | 01/21/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 01/25/16 |
| stimulating university | 01/25/16 |
| Cerebral salmon gaping space | 01/25/16 |
| stimulating university | 02/09/16 |
| Razzle bipolar tank | 09/06/16 |
| Swashbuckling patrolman | 11/05/18 |
| supple dopamine lay | 01/29/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 02/01/16 |
| dashing indian lodge | 02/01/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 02/01/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 02/07/16 |
| big-titted factory reset button | 02/09/16 |
| Lascivious drab state | 02/09/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 02/20/16 |
| splenetic crawly sanctuary | 02/20/16 |
| impertinent razzmatazz menage shitlib | 02/24/16 |
| up-to-no-good boyish rehab | 02/24/16 |
| startling grizzly national becky | 02/27/16 |
| Appetizing hot locale multi-billionaire | 03/09/16 |
| histrionic misunderstood crackhouse | 03/15/16 |
| Translucent At-the-ready Incel Marketing Idea | 03/15/16 |
| heady principal's office | 03/16/16 |
| Electric tantric organic girlfriend field | 02/24/16 |
| contagious henna trailer park | 02/24/16 |
| heady principal's office | 07/21/16 |
| mildly autistic beady-eyed weed whacker box office | 02/24/16 |
| Translucent At-the-ready Incel Marketing Idea | 02/27/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 03/02/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 03/04/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 03/09/16 |
| big-titted factory reset button | 03/09/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 03/15/16 |
| impertinent razzmatazz menage shitlib | 03/15/16 |
| rusted high-end cruise ship | 03/15/16 |
| Stirring maniacal point | 03/15/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 03/16/16 |
| Bright nursing home | 03/16/16 |
| Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad | 03/23/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 03/23/16 |
| deranged hissy fit | 03/26/16 |
| exhilarant lodge persian | 03/26/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 03/26/16 |
| lemon step-uncle's house | 03/28/16 |
| Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad | 03/28/16 |
| Cream Chad | 03/28/16 |
| Arousing Resort Karate | 08/12/16 |
| Swashbuckling patrolman | 11/05/18 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 03/28/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 03/29/16 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy therapy | 03/29/16 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy therapy | 03/29/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 03/29/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 03/29/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 04/01/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 04/04/16 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy therapy | 04/15/16 |
| Twinkling office fat ankles | 04/15/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 04/19/16 |
| haunting shaky station jew | 04/20/16 |
| mischievous abnormal whorehouse newt | 04/20/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 04/24/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 04/25/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 04/26/16 |
| Internet-worthy concupiscible parlour turdskin | 04/26/16 |
| thriller set toilet seat | 04/30/16 |
| Walnut Disgusting Orchestra Pit Legal Warrant | 05/01/16 |
| Walnut Disgusting Orchestra Pit Legal Warrant | 11/07/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 05/02/16 |
| Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad | 05/02/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 05/03/16 |
| chestnut bat-shit-crazy locus | 05/03/16 |
| multi-colored swollen stead | 05/03/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 05/04/16 |
| Razzle bipolar tank | 05/04/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 05/05/16 |
| bearded abusive theater stage | 05/05/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 05/05/16 |
| contagious henna trailer park | 05/05/16 |
| Self-absorbed dull ratface | 05/18/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 05/18/16 |
| impertinent razzmatazz menage shitlib | 05/18/16 |
| Self-absorbed dull ratface | 05/18/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 05/29/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 06/20/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 06/29/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 07/14/16 |
| Aphrodisiac famous landscape painting love of her life | 07/15/16 |
| Arousing Resort Karate | 07/15/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 07/17/16 |
| Razzle bipolar tank | 07/17/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 07/21/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 07/22/16 |
| self-centered mental disorder | 07/22/16 |
| gaped spot pistol | 07/23/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 07/24/16 |
| zombie-like antidepressant drug | 07/25/16 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy therapy | 07/25/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 07/27/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 08/05/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 08/09/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 08/12/16 |
| Razzle bipolar tank | 08/12/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 08/12/16 |
| chrome coiffed piazza corn cake | 08/12/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 08/30/16 |
| Razzle bipolar tank | 08/30/16 |
| Razzle bipolar tank | 09/06/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 09/13/16 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy therapy | 09/14/16 |
| Crystalline personal credit line brunch | 09/14/16 |
| Alcoholic Public Bath | 09/15/16 |
| racy slate house | 09/15/16 |
| Motley mood | 09/15/16 |
| Cracking reading party faggot firefighter | 09/15/16 |
| Yapping Amber Indirect Expression Water Buffalo | 09/15/16 |
| Provocative pisswyrm base | 09/19/16 |
| Provocative pisswyrm base | 09/19/16 |
| Razzle bipolar tank | 09/27/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 09/24/16 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 09/27/16 |
| Razzle bipolar tank | 09/27/16 |
| Bright nursing home | 09/27/16 |
| 180 New Version | 10/08/16 |
| Zippy chapel | 07/29/24 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy therapy | 09/28/16 |
| Crystalline personal credit line brunch | 09/28/16 |
| Razzle bipolar tank | 09/28/16 |
| mischievous abnormal whorehouse newt | 09/28/16 |
| Twinkling office fat ankles | 09/28/16 |
| Aromatic narrow-minded dog poop temple | 10/08/16 |
| Razzle bipolar tank | 10/09/16 |
| crusty spectacular area | 10/09/16 |
| Razzle bipolar tank | 10/09/16 |
| Transparent double fault | 10/09/16 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy therapy | 10/10/16 |
| zombie-like antidepressant drug | 10/30/16 |
| Arousing Resort Karate | 11/01/16 |
| Cracking reading party faggot firefighter | 11/01/16 |
| Passionate shrine laser beams | 11/02/16 |
| Cowardly dysfunction | 11/02/16 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy therapy | 11/07/16 |
| Navy Church Building | 11/08/16 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy therapy | 11/08/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 11/08/16 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy therapy | 11/08/16 |
| amethyst abode | 11/08/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle jet ticket booth potus | 11/08/16 |
| dashing indian lodge | 11/08/16 |
| Provocative pisswyrm base | 11/08/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 11/08/16 |
| Maroon forum | 11/09/16 |
| Alcoholic Public Bath | 11/09/16 |
| Fiercely-loyal Adventurous Hell Prole | 11/09/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 11/09/16 |
| Cracking reading party faggot firefighter | 11/09/16 |
| Maroon forum | 11/09/16 |
| zombie-like antidepressant drug | 11/09/16 |
| bearded abusive theater stage | 11/09/16 |
| Khaki Excitant Psychic Market | 12/03/16 |
| curious center | 12/07/16 |
| Aquamarine Brethren Halford | 12/17/16 |
| flesh milk partner | 10/11/24 |
| Wonderful pit cuckold | 11/09/16 |
| Rose roommate meetinghouse | 11/09/16 |
| Talking kitchen | 11/09/16 |
| Umber Philosopher-king Library | 11/09/16 |
| Khaki Excitant Psychic Market | 11/09/16 |
| Arousing Resort Karate | 11/09/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 11/09/16 |
| Self-absorbed dull ratface | 11/09/16 |
| Razzle bipolar tank | 11/09/16 |
| blathering effete hospital nibblets | 11/09/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 11/09/16 |
| comical church stock car | 11/09/16 |
| Galvanic black business firm | 11/09/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 11/09/16 |
| Crimson ungodly gunner hominid | 11/09/16 |
| diverse fuchsia private investor | 11/10/16 |
| stimulating university | 11/10/16 |
| Motley mood | 11/10/16 |
| Arrogant slap-happy cumskin | 11/10/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 11/10/16 |
| glittery slimy really tough guy therapy | 11/10/16 |
| splenetic crawly sanctuary | 11/10/16 |
| Provocative pisswyrm base | 11/14/16 |
| mahogany violent stage feces | 11/14/16 |
| jet-lagged frum azn keepsake machete | 12/04/16 |
| Aquamarine Brethren Halford | 12/17/16 |
| flesh milk partner | 10/11/24 |
| irradiated mexican | 11/25/16 |
| Nofapping mustard site | 12/03/16 |
| Transparent double fault | 12/04/16 |
| Brass twisted faggotry tattoo | 12/07/16 |
| Motley mood | 12/07/16 |
| Nofapping mustard site | 12/07/16 |
| irradiated mexican | 01/02/17 |
| Thirsty Dilemma | 01/02/17 |
| irradiated mexican | 01/02/17 |
| Thirsty Dilemma | 01/02/17 |
| irradiated mexican | 03/03/20 |
| Motley mood | 01/02/17 |
| Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad | 01/16/17 |
| Thirsty Dilemma | 01/20/17 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 01/20/17 |
| Thirsty Dilemma | 01/23/17 |
| Aromatic narrow-minded dog poop temple | 01/23/17 |
| Thirsty Dilemma | 01/23/17 |
| hairraiser international law enforcement agency den | 01/23/17 |
| Aromatic narrow-minded dog poop temple | 01/23/17 |
| Thirsty Dilemma | 01/23/17 |
| Thirsty Dilemma | 01/25/17 |
| Thirsty Dilemma | 01/26/17 |
| Thirsty Dilemma | 02/06/17 |
| Thirsty Dilemma | 02/13/17 |
| Thirsty Dilemma | 02/27/17 |
| Thirsty Dilemma | 05/03/17 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 05/03/17 |
| Thirsty Dilemma | 09/21/17 |
| Translucent At-the-ready Incel Marketing Idea | 01/23/17 |
| Cracking reading party faggot firefighter | 02/27/17 |
| Swashbuckling patrolman | 03/22/17 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 04/17/17 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 05/08/17 |
| irradiated mexican | 06/20/17 |
| irradiated mexican | 08/10/17 |
| irradiated mexican | 10/15/17 |
| Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad | 10/15/17 |
| ultramarine hall french chef | 10/15/17 |
| irradiated mexican | 11/06/17 |
| Exciting jade rigpig | 11/06/17 |
| buff federal gas station | 11/08/17 |
| Indigo native associate | 11/08/17 |
| Light fear-inspiring institution pocket flask | 11/13/17 |
| Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad | 12/18/17 |
| Razzle bipolar tank | 12/18/17 |
| Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad | 12/18/17 |
| irradiated mexican | 01/30/18 |
| Motley mood | 06/01/18 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 07/18/18 |
| Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad | 07/19/18 |
| Yapping Amber Indirect Expression Water Buffalo | 09/20/18 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 09/25/18 |
| Cream Chad | 10/06/18 |
| irradiated mexican | 10/06/18 |
| Motley mood | 10/25/18 |
| racy slate house | 10/25/18 |
| Cerebral salmon gaping space | 11/05/18 |
| Motley mood | 11/05/18 |
| Swashbuckling patrolman | 11/05/18 |
| Motley mood | 11/05/18 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 01/08/19 |
| tan filthpig | 02/23/19 |
| irradiated mexican | 03/13/19 |
| Cerebral salmon gaping space | 06/24/19 |
| rambunctious gaming laptop corner | 06/24/19 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 11/18/19 |
| Cracking reading party faggot firefighter | 02/12/20 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 02/12/20 |
| irradiated mexican | 03/24/20 |
| Metal sienna internal respiration party of the first part | 03/24/20 |
| Aphrodisiac famous landscape painting love of her life | 04/04/20 |
| irradiated mexican | 04/26/20 |
| irradiated mexican | 05/13/20 |
| Aphrodisiac famous landscape painting love of her life | 06/05/20 |
| duck-like pozpig | 06/05/20 |
| Aphrodisiac famous landscape painting love of her life | 09/09/20 |
| Cracking reading party faggot firefighter | 09/09/20 |
| Mentally impaired hairy legs coldplay fan | 09/09/20 |
| avocado | 09/12/20 |
| Bull headed bespoke boiling water | 09/24/20 |
| rambunctious gaming laptop corner | 10/09/20 |
| Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad | 10/10/20 |
| Frisky Windowlicker | 10/22/20 |
| Khaki Excitant Psychic Market | 10/22/20 |
| Floppy Onyx Garrison | 10/22/20 |
| Floppy Onyx Garrison | 10/22/20 |
| bbw | 03/23/22 |
| irradiated mexican | 10/27/20 |
| Swashbuckling patrolman | 10/27/20 |
| rambunctious gaming laptop corner | 10/30/20 |
| Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad | 11/03/20 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 03/22/22 |
| angry codepig | 03/23/22 |
| Orchid ceo | 03/23/22 |
| Costumed mediation | 03/23/22 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 07/25/22 |
| Mentally impaired hairy legs coldplay fan | 07/25/22 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 10/23/22 |
| irradiated mexican | 11/16/22 |
| irradiated mexican | 04/25/23 |
| Self-absorbed dull ratface | 04/25/23 |
| Bull headed bespoke boiling water | 04/29/23 |
| Zippy chapel | 05/28/23 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 02/22/24 |
| Bull headed bespoke boiling water | 02/23/24 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 05/23/24 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 08/26/24 |
| Bull headed bespoke boiling water | 09/13/24 |
| Mentally impaired hairy legs coldplay fan | 09/13/24 |
| Bull headed bespoke boiling water | 10/18/24 |
| flesh milk partner | 10/11/24 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 11/06/24 |
| bearded abusive theater stage | 03/04/25 |
| bearded abusive theater stage | 03/04/25 |
| Yapping Amber Indirect Expression Water Buffalo | 03/04/25 |
| flesh milk partner | 03/04/25 |
| Blue | 03/04/25 |
| Erotic | 03/05/25 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 03/07/25 |
| Cheese-eating Puppy Affirmative Action | 03/07/25 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 03/08/25 |
| cyan quadroon | 03/08/25 |
| Stubborn Round Eye Toaster | 03/08/25 |
| incel adams | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: irradiated mexican December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Apoplectic elite range degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Swashbuckling patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Motley mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Motley mood another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: violet greedy location 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: bateful immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Mind-boggling Home "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Mentally impaired hairy legs coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Cream Chad 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Translucent At-the-ready Incel Marketing Idea 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Crimson ungodly gunner hominid Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: flickering heaven idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Fragrant Dingle Berry FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Bright nursing home Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Hideous brilliant sneaky criminal Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: poppy outnumbered clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: marvelous saffron selfie community account Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: dark trust fund Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Yellow Plaza Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: brindle parlor telephone (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Pearly laughsome address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Odious Domesticated Property Circlehead 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: poppy outnumbered clown November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Wine School Cafeteria Stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Cerebral salmon gaping space Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: curious center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Self-absorbed dull ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Soul-stirring theater lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Lilac pervert March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Talented tanning salon boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: clear vigorous school useless brakes 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Crystalline personal credit line brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: soggy wagecucks lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: deranged hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: bearded abusive theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: titillating casino messiness Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: embarrassed to the bone trip alpha giraffe Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Bright nursing home OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Bright nursing home And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Appetizing hot locale multi-billionaire 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: heady principal's office fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Pontificating Awkward Regret Mother I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Cowardly dysfunction 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: big cerise friendly grandma theatre February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: charismatic hyperactive old irish cottage generalized bond You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: irradiated mexican Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: irradiated mexican http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: irradiated mexican http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: irradiated mexican http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: irradiated mexican http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: lemon step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Cerebral salmon gaping space Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Aquamarine Brethren Halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: impertinent razzmatazz menage shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Arousing Resort Karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: irradiated mexican http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: red filthy stag film background story Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Floppy Onyx Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Sexy Kitty Electric Furnace This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: sickened lime roast beef senate 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: vibrant lake scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Emerald doctorate Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: bisexual gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Swashbuckling patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: diverse fuchsia private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: clear vigorous school useless brakes 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Yellow Plaza flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: irradiated mexican ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Cerebral salmon gaping space Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: bisexual gay wizard From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: big-titted factory reset button 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Claret Vivacious Stage Coffee Pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: unhinged cuck An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: slippery honey-headed crotch legend 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: unhinged cuck I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Swashbuckling patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: unhinged cuck Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: slippery honey-headed crotch legend No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Arousing Resort Karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: clear vigorous school useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Razzle bipolar tank 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: clear vigorous school useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: bisexual gay wizard http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: clear vigorous school useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: bisexual gay wizard looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: stimulating university 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29677863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#29976826) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30015799) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: Bright nursing home March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30070601) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30119337) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: deranged hissy fit http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30140474) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: lemon step-uncle's house jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30151965) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Swashbuckling patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy therapy lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy therapy "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy therapy interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Twinkling office fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: mischievous abnormal whorehouse newt I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30353572) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: Internet-worthy concupiscible parlour turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30353587) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Walnut Disgusting Orchestra Pit Legal Warrant Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Walnut Disgusting Orchestra Pit Legal Warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: chestnut bat-shit-crazy locus holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: multi-colored swollen stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30405223) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: bearded abusive theater stage Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: irradiated mexican LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: contagious henna trailer park Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Self-absorbed dull ratface This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: impertinent razzmatazz menage shitlib In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Self-absorbed dull ratface cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: irradiated mexican lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Aphrodisiac famous landscape painting love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Arousing Resort Karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Razzle bipolar tank 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: self-centered mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: gaped spot pistol Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: zombie-like antidepressant drug Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy therapy amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: irradiated mexican Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: irradiated mexican THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Razzle bipolar tank holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: irradiated mexican I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: chrome coiffed piazza corn cake LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: irradiated mexican THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Razzle bipolar tank 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Razzle bipolar tank lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy therapy ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Crystalline personal credit line brunch Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Alcoholic Public Bath September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: racy slate house September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Motley mood god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Cracking reading party faggot firefighter XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Yapping Amber Indirect Expression Water Buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Provocative pisswyrm base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Provocative pisswyrm base The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Razzle bipolar tank let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Razzle bipolar tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Bright nursing home This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: 180 New Version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Zippy chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy therapy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Crystalline personal credit line brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Razzle bipolar tank 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: mischievous abnormal whorehouse newt This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Twinkling office fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Aromatic narrow-minded dog poop temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Razzle bipolar tank hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: crusty spectacular area Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Razzle bipolar tank doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Transparent double fault half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy therapy nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: zombie-like antidepressant drug close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Arousing Resort Karate Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Cracking reading party faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Passionate shrine laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Cowardly dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy therapy prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Navy Church Building You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy therapy true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: irradiated mexican ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy therapy ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: amethyst abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle jet ticket booth potus Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: dashing indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Provocative pisswyrm base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Maroon forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Alcoholic Public Bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Fiercely-loyal Adventurous Hell Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Cracking reading party faggot firefighter GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Maroon forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: zombie-like antidepressant drug it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: bearded abusive theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Khaki Excitant Psychic Market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: curious center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Aquamarine Brethren Halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: flesh milk partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Wonderful pit cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Rose roommate meetinghouse Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Talking kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Umber Philosopher-king Library 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Khaki Excitant Psychic Market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Arousing Resort Karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Self-absorbed dull ratface this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Razzle bipolar tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: blathering effete hospital nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: comical church stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Galvanic black business firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: irradiated mexican November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Crimson ungodly gunner hominid you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: diverse fuchsia private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: stimulating university Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Motley mood bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Arrogant slap-happy cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: irradiated mexican sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: glittery slimy really tough guy therapy ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: splenetic crawly sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Provocative pisswyrm base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: mahogany violent stage feces They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: jet-lagged frum azn keepsake machete Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Aquamarine Brethren Halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: flesh milk partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Nofapping mustard site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Transparent double fault GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Brass twisted faggotry tattoo https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Motley mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Nofapping mustard site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Thirsty Dilemma October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: irradiated mexican ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Thirsty Dilemma ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Motley mood truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Thirsty Dilemma https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Thirsty Dilemma http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Aromatic narrow-minded dog poop temple TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Thirsty Dilemma It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: hairraiser international law enforcement agency den I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Aromatic narrow-minded dog poop temple it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Thirsty Dilemma The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Thirsty Dilemma https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Thirsty Dilemma https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Thirsty Dilemma https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Thirsty Dilemma https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Thirsty Dilemma https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Thirsty Dilemma https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Thirsty Dilemma https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Translucent At-the-ready Incel Marketing Idea this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Cracking reading party faggot firefighter One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Swashbuckling patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: irradiated mexican What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: irradiated mexican https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: ultramarine hall french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Exciting jade rigpig credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: buff federal gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Indigo native associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Light fear-inspiring institution pocket flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Razzle bipolar tank Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Motley mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Yapping Amber Indirect Expression Water Buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Cream Chad It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: irradiated mexican lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Motley mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: racy slate house Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Cerebral salmon gaping space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Motley mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Swashbuckling patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Motley mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: tan filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: irradiated mexican Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Cerebral salmon gaping space There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: rambunctious gaming laptop corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Cracking reading party faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Metal sienna internal respiration party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Aphrodisiac famous landscape painting love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: irradiated mexican https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Aphrodisiac famous landscape painting love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: duck-like pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Aphrodisiac famous landscape painting love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Cracking reading party faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Mentally impaired hairy legs coldplay fan Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: avocado (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Bull headed bespoke boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: rambunctious gaming laptop corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Frisky Windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Khaki Excitant Psychic Market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Floppy Onyx Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Floppy Onyx Garrison https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: irradiated mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Swashbuckling patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: rambunctious gaming laptop corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Nudist Ruby Bawdyhouse Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: angry codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Orchid ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Costumed mediation 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Mentally impaired hairy legs coldplay fan A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: irradiated mexican Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: irradiated mexican https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Self-absorbed dull ratface why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Bull headed bespoke boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Zippy chapel FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Bull headed bespoke boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Bull headed bespoke boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Mentally impaired hairy legs coldplay fan One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Bull headed bespoke boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: flesh milk partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: bearded abusive theater stage 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: bearded abusive theater stage https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Yapping Amber Indirect Expression Water Buffalo Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: flesh milk partner The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: Blue He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Erotic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Cheese-eating Puppy Affirmative Action 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: cyan quadroon Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Stubborn Round Eye Toaster Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: incel adams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2)#49679495) |