Idk what info you're seeing so I don't know what to go into but basically Iran carries nearly all the cards. Actually I haven't kept up this week so that might be outdated info

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2)#49870047)

It appears as though they are at storage capacity for oil. The US seems to have allowed empty tankers through the strait which Oran is using as spare capacity. I think this shows the US really does not want to leave a long term impact. However, Iran could be facing irreversible geological collapse of some of its wells if they have to stop pumping. There were reports of an oil slick around Kharg Island recently. I bet they star dumping oil rather than risk their wells long term.

Nothing we're hearing in the press or even from the administration is on the up and up. The US has run every scenario through AI models. They knew the strait would be closed. I suspect the US always wanted to exploit the ability to blockade. It's good for American oil and harms China. It's also forced a realignment in SE Asia. There was a recent wave of security agreements signed in the region. The timing was too perfect if you wanted to kick start investment in say Venezuela or break up OPEC. The petrodollar comes out king. Keep in mind this entire operation is aimed at China.

https://x.com/teomoneyeast/status/2044886693472526552

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2)#49870134)

This was for the other strait nobody is talking about. But control of both makes Chinese plans to hit Taiwan in the next year or two very difficult. I think part of the war aim was also to draw down Chinese reserves. They need a shit ton of oil on hand before they can even contemplate an attack on Taiwan.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2)#49870150)

The US sidestepped all of that investment. The US moved past extraction and invested billions in a domestic Nigerian refinery, positioning us as partners instead of pure exploitation. However, along with the refinery comes access to US oil extraction experts and logistics. Nigerian firms are tied to US oil companies. Next was the security arrangement with the Nigerian government, which put the nail in the Chinese coffin. The pretext was Christian persecution, but that was way up north and the target of the eventual US strikes just so happened to be the prime enemy of the current regime (note that the oil areas are dominated by Christian populations). Once oil was under US influence and guaranteed through US military protection, in come the data centers to lock it all up. Lol Nikki Minaj was the face of the soft power influence and provided cover for the US military actions back in December.

This little tidbit from a Bloomberg article captures it just about perfectly and it's what you would read on the surface as a norm.

+4 Nigeria is experiencing a $1 billion+ investment surge in AI-ready data centers, with major players like Microsoft, Equinix, and Open Access Data Centres building capacity in Lagos to support AI workloads and a tech-savvy population. While Nigeria leads in AI adoption (88%), it faces severe power constraints, forcing reliance on private gas/diesel power, with the first dedicated AI data center expected in 2026.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2)#49870774)

The most important lesson of the coverage of the war (and all Iran coverage since the January massacre) is that the IRGC pulls a string and their tankie supporters in the west bleat out whatever they’re fed, and the Tucker/Vance rightoid faction are trying to follow along closely enough to box out Rubio, but they all sound pathetic and idiotic to anyone who bothers to read about the war for more than 5 minutes and has a triple digit IQ.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2)#49870442)

Asian countries feeling the pain are now coming to the U.S. for relief and signing security agreements and searching out all alternatives (including via China and Russia) to try to protect supply. Between that and (he didn’t say this part but I’m filling in some gaps) the resolve shown so far by GCC countries to punish the IRGC both by enduring the blockade and by cutting off banks/financing that Iran has been using to avoid sanctions pain, the economic cost of the war is now hitting hard within Iran and their currency is further collapsed (just shy of 2M rial per $ ie 20% worse than during the protests in December/January). Unemployment has shot up and there are widespread reports of salaries of extended portions of the security forces (eg cops and army) not being paid.

He did refer to the storage problems the blockade are causing ie Iran is pumping oil it can’t sell so it has to hold onto it (or dump it) and reports differ but estimates are they will exhaust all their storage failsafes by the start of the summer. If that happens and they truly run out of capacity they could be forced to cap mature wells, which means they permanently lose production capacity due to the pressure required being cut off (though a fracktastic U.S. company could still get to it). On top of all that, if you believe that Iran currently has an upper hand to get a better deal in a negotiation than it would’ve gotten prior to the war, it appears that the hardline faction of the IRGC insists that no deal should occur and has increasingly limited access to Mojtaba Khamenei (assuming he’s alive and not a vegetable) to undermine the moderates who have been pushing to get a deal now/soon. Assuming the IRGC hardliners are acting like a second supreme leader veto the odds of a deal are low and the odds that they will fight until a massive internal security problem develops are much higher.

Bottom line is that it’s shifted from 6 weeks ago when Trump was tweeting desperately and retardedly to much more of a “who blinks first” scenario and Trump’s vanity and stubbornness combined with the IRGC hardliners’ zealotry could mean that the blockade goes on for a while. This could allow more time for the U.S. and Israel to figure out a way to get more weapons and logistics to insurgents in Iran and help the massive internal security problem along. The Israelis are desperate to prevent a deal now, which has been the best indicator of any as to where Trump’s headed wrt Iran since last summer.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2)#49870625)

Also I don't think the US really wants to permanently fuck the Iranian wells. We would love a happy Iran without sanctions selling oil to whoever at market rates. No more discounts for China.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2)#49870716)

Before we go any further, do you think 30-40,000 Iranians were killed by the Iranian regime in those 2 days?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2)#49870541)

Monarchists have been using the 30-40k number to say the Iran war casualties are nothing in comparison. But that’s higher than most of the deadliest battles of any wars so it should be questioned when there’s no data to support it.

Also, Iranians have a history of exaggerating death counts when they’re caught up in revolutionary fervor. Khomeini used to say the shah killed 100k people before the revolution….the number was more like a few thousand

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2)#49870799)

My point is that autistically questioning the precise bodycount is a strategy the IRGC employed to avoid focus on the fact that they committed atrocities that have justified foreign intervention in many other contexts. Srebrenica was 8k. And even more crucially it distracts from what should have been the most obvious takeaway from January: the IRGC are in complete control and totally unrestrained by “Reformists” (lol) or Khamenei. Fucking Larijiani directed the massacre. So above all the NIAC/Trita Parsi/Obama/JCPOA view that all we need to do is empower the Reformists and democracy will flourish was thoroughly and permanently disproven. And yet these NIAC assholes are still on every cable show every night and meeting with Dems in Congress like nothing ever happened.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2)#49870938)

I don't do well with domestic political shit. I assume the 2028 nom is between Vance and Rubio factions. Overall, the basic premise of our foreign policy has broad nonpartisan support though. China is a necessary enemy but their power has fallen. Chinese GDP as a percentage of US GDP peaked around 2022 and the gap has grown dramatically since then. They are looking at a demographic nightmare.

The US has one policy aim that is shared; global population will peak soon and decline by the end of the century and AI is the chosen solution. We're already seeing big gains in productivity. Thats why nobody cares about the national debt because it's all worth it if the US establishes the AI infrastructure the world will run on. The new power will be computation. China has 800 data centers, the US has over 4,000 and it's pedal to the metal. I don't know if we'll see data centers in space like Elon wants, but that's like Reagan's star wars system that fucked the USSR without ever even getting built.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2)#49870693)

http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864134&mc=5&forum_id=2

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864321&forum_id=2)#49870695)