The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 12/10/15 |
| Purple shaky old irish cottage | 12/12/15 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 01/02/17 |
| Fear-inspiring Locale Juggernaut | 01/06/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Round Eye | 01/06/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Round Eye | 06/05/16 |
| electric theater | 03/26/16 |
| Milky disgusting skinny woman | 01/02/17 |
| flushed shitlib | 10/25/18 |
| Green hyperventilating theater stage | 12/10/15 |
| marvelous piazza dingle berry | 12/10/15 |
| cyan trip faggot firefighter corner | 12/10/15 |
| Aqua wonderful address organic girlfriend | 12/10/15 |
| Bronze Sanctuary Black Woman | 12/15/15 |
| canary heady temple pozpig | 12/10/15 |
| disrespectful swashbuckling step-uncle's house boistinker | 12/10/15 |
| lascivious selfie | 12/10/15 |
| big citrine fortuitous meteor place of business | 12/11/15 |
| Learning Disabled Jew Really Tough Guy | 12/12/15 |
| Sickened contagious main people theatre | 12/16/15 |
| bat-shit-crazy boyish gay wizard | 01/04/16 |
| Bearded vibrant kitchen | 11/09/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 12/11/15 |
| beady-eyed half-breed orchestra pit | 12/11/15 |
| bossy sable trailer park | 12/11/15 |
| big citrine fortuitous meteor place of business | 12/11/15 |
| elite magical space | 12/12/15 |
| Odious station windowlicker | 01/25/16 |
| diverse hunting ground | 11/10/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 12/12/15 |
| buck-toothed hissy fit gaming laptop | 12/12/15 |
| razzle aggressive tattoo sweet tailpipe | 12/12/15 |
| Fishy menage | 12/12/15 |
| pink razzle-dazzle circlehead meetinghouse | 12/15/15 |
| cowardly ladyboy mad cow disease | 12/21/15 |
| bateful obsidian dog poop toaster | 12/12/15 |
| Bistre deranged puppy base | 12/12/15 |
| Slimy Liquid Oxygen Ratface | 12/12/15 |
| Appetizing Infuriating Plaza Hominid | 12/12/15 |
| Apoplectic reading party | 12/12/15 |
| Tripping adventurous nibblets church | 12/12/15 |
| disrespectful swashbuckling step-uncle's house boistinker | 12/15/15 |
| disrespectful swashbuckling step-uncle's house boistinker | 12/16/15 |
| fragrant set | 12/15/15 |
| Supple Fuchsia Therapy Scourge Upon The Earth | 12/15/15 |
| laughsome red gas station feces | 12/15/15 |
| Confused immigrant | 12/15/15 |
| Floppy wild wrinkle box office | 12/15/15 |
| Exciting maniacal turdskin pervert | 12/15/15 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 12/15/15 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 12/15/15 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 12/15/15 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 12/15/15 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 12/15/15 |
| vigorous milk messiness | 01/05/16 |
| Odious station windowlicker | 01/25/16 |
| fighting goal in life haunted graveyard | 12/17/16 |
| Aquamarine multi-billionaire | 05/18/16 |
| vermilion excitant international law enforcement agency location | 08/12/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 11/09/16 |
| 180 yapping national nowag | 11/09/16 |
| hideous ruddy property athletic conference | 11/09/16 |
| histrionic wagecucks forum | 10/22/20 |
| copper up-to-no-good rehab | 12/15/15 |
| Zombie-like dun site | 12/16/15 |
| Idiotic metal public bath brethren | 12/16/15 |
| Primrose Soul-stirring Stage Azn | 12/16/15 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 12/16/15 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 12/17/15 |
| curious whorehouse | 12/18/15 |
| Fear-inspiring Locale Juggernaut | 01/06/16 |
| Saffron Garrison Yarmulke | 12/18/15 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 12/21/15 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 12/21/15 |
| cowardly ladyboy mad cow disease | 12/21/15 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 12/30/15 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 12/30/15 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 01/04/16 |
| bat-shit-crazy boyish gay wizard | 01/04/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 01/05/16 |
| Odious station windowlicker | 01/25/16 |
| curious whorehouse | 01/05/16 |
| Tan dragon | 01/05/16 |
| outnumbered water buffalo nursing home | 01/05/16 |
| Painfully honest masturbator candlestick maker | 01/05/16 |
| sooty aromatic lodge friendly grandma | 01/05/16 |
| Painfully honest masturbator candlestick maker | 01/05/16 |
| Fear-inspiring Locale Juggernaut | 01/06/16 |
| Painfully honest masturbator candlestick maker | 01/06/16 |
| sooty aromatic lodge friendly grandma | 01/05/16 |
| vermilion excitant international law enforcement agency location | 01/06/16 |
| cowardly ladyboy mad cow disease | 01/07/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 01/08/16 |
| geriatric spectacular stag film | 01/08/16 |
| cowardly ladyboy mad cow disease | 01/08/16 |
| curious whorehouse | 01/09/16 |
| cowardly ladyboy mad cow disease | 01/10/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 01/18/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 01/19/16 |
| curious whorehouse | 01/21/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 01/25/16 |
| stimulating opaque market prole | 01/25/16 |
| Odious station windowlicker | 01/25/16 |
| stimulating opaque market prole | 02/09/16 |
| geriatric spectacular stag film | 09/06/16 |
| Fear-inspiring Locale Juggernaut | 11/05/18 |
| fantasy-prone sneaky criminal | 01/29/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 02/01/16 |
| lilac lay faggotry | 02/01/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 02/01/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 02/07/16 |
| Tan dragon | 02/09/16 |
| Buff Alcoholic Coffee Pot | 02/09/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 02/20/16 |
| Lake people who are hurt preventive strike | 02/20/16 |
| Aquamarine multi-billionaire | 02/24/16 |
| Grizzly Brunch | 02/24/16 |
| Galvanic Lavender Mental Disorder Fanboi | 02/27/16 |
| fragrant set | 03/09/16 |
| concupiscible alcoholic native legend | 03/15/16 |
| cyan trip faggot firefighter corner | 03/15/16 |
| Supple Fuchsia Therapy Scourge Upon The Earth | 03/16/16 |
| light domesticated blood rage fat ankles | 02/24/16 |
| olive locus son of senegal | 02/24/16 |
| Supple Fuchsia Therapy Scourge Upon The Earth | 07/21/16 |
| Motley factory reset button | 02/24/16 |
| cyan trip faggot firefighter corner | 02/27/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 03/02/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 03/04/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 03/09/16 |
| Tan dragon | 03/09/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 03/15/16 |
| Aquamarine multi-billionaire | 03/15/16 |
| Thriller library affirmative action | 03/15/16 |
| mind-boggling pocket flask lettuce | 03/15/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 03/16/16 |
| disrespectful swashbuckling step-uncle's house boistinker | 03/16/16 |
| 180 yapping national nowag | 03/23/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 03/23/16 |
| Slimy Liquid Oxygen Ratface | 03/26/16 |
| Razzmatazz white ticket booth | 03/26/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 03/26/16 |
| vigorous milk messiness | 03/28/16 |
| 180 yapping national nowag | 03/28/16 |
| marvelous piazza dingle berry | 03/28/16 |
| vermilion excitant international law enforcement agency location | 08/12/16 |
| Fear-inspiring Locale Juggernaut | 11/05/18 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 03/28/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 03/29/16 |
| Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap | 03/29/16 |
| Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap | 03/29/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 03/29/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 03/29/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 04/01/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 04/04/16 |
| Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap | 04/15/16 |
| orchid titillating quadroon | 04/15/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 04/19/16 |
| Massive multi-colored school cafeteria | 04/20/16 |
| cracking boltzmann new version | 04/20/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 04/24/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 04/25/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 04/26/16 |
| territorial genital piercing principal's office | 04/26/16 |
| pale charismatic crackhouse | 04/30/16 |
| racy cream tanning salon | 05/01/16 |
| racy cream tanning salon | 11/07/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 05/02/16 |
| 180 yapping national nowag | 05/02/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 05/03/16 |
| Transparent Trust Fund | 05/03/16 |
| Brilliant chapel incel | 05/03/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 05/04/16 |
| geriatric spectacular stag film | 05/04/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 05/05/16 |
| Appetizing Infuriating Plaza Hominid | 05/05/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 05/05/16 |
| olive locus son of senegal | 05/05/16 |
| buck-toothed hissy fit gaming laptop | 05/18/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 05/18/16 |
| Aquamarine multi-billionaire | 05/18/16 |
| buck-toothed hissy fit gaming laptop | 05/18/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 05/29/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 06/20/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 06/29/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 07/14/16 |
| drab provocative community account | 07/15/16 |
| vermilion excitant international law enforcement agency location | 07/15/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 07/17/16 |
| geriatric spectacular stag film | 07/17/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 07/21/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 07/22/16 |
| exhilarant cordovan shrine | 07/22/16 |
| burgundy trump supporter | 07/23/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 07/24/16 |
| Honey-headed vivacious hospital | 07/25/16 |
| Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap | 07/25/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 07/27/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 08/05/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 08/09/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 08/12/16 |
| geriatric spectacular stag film | 08/12/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 08/12/16 |
| Talented chocolate house | 08/12/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 08/30/16 |
| geriatric spectacular stag film | 08/30/16 |
| geriatric spectacular stag film | 09/06/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 09/13/16 |
| Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap | 09/14/16 |
| bateful obsidian dog poop toaster | 09/14/16 |
| out-of-control potus partner | 09/15/16 |
| passionate spruce ceo | 09/15/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Round Eye | 09/15/16 |
| shimmering arousing home | 09/15/16 |
| demanding heaven indirect expression | 09/15/16 |
| chartreuse dilemma party of the first part | 09/19/16 |
| chartreuse dilemma party of the first part | 09/19/16 |
| geriatric spectacular stag film | 09/27/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 09/24/16 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 09/27/16 |
| geriatric spectacular stag film | 09/27/16 |
| disrespectful swashbuckling step-uncle's house boistinker | 09/27/16 |
| Glittery walnut den psychic | 10/08/16 |
| Comical Wine Hell | 07/29/24 |
| Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap | 09/28/16 |
| bateful obsidian dog poop toaster | 09/28/16 |
| geriatric spectacular stag film | 09/28/16 |
| cracking boltzmann new version | 09/28/16 |
| orchid titillating quadroon | 09/28/16 |
| brindle pisswyrm stage | 10/08/16 |
| geriatric spectacular stag film | 10/09/16 |
| dashing lime sound barrier | 10/09/16 |
| geriatric spectacular stag film | 10/09/16 |
| Navy Spot Coldplay Fan | 10/09/16 |
| Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap | 10/10/16 |
| Honey-headed vivacious hospital | 10/30/16 |
| vermilion excitant international law enforcement agency location | 11/01/16 |
| shimmering arousing home | 11/01/16 |
| hot overrated boiling water range | 11/02/16 |
| Confused immigrant | 11/02/16 |
| Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap | 11/07/16 |
| Fiercely-loyal roommate | 11/08/16 |
| Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap | 11/08/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 11/08/16 |
| Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap | 11/08/16 |
| very tactful cruise ship sandwich | 11/08/16 |
| Irradiated telephone | 11/08/16 |
| lilac lay faggotry | 11/08/16 |
| chartreuse dilemma party of the first part | 11/08/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 11/08/16 |
| Hilarious sinister resort dysfunction | 11/09/16 |
| out-of-control potus partner | 11/09/16 |
| Hairraiser drunken rigpig twinkling uncleanness | 11/09/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 11/09/16 |
| shimmering arousing home | 11/09/16 |
| Hilarious sinister resort dysfunction | 11/09/16 |
| Honey-headed vivacious hospital | 11/09/16 |
| Appetizing Infuriating Plaza Hominid | 11/09/16 |
| impressive foreskin | 12/03/16 |
| diverse hunting ground | 12/07/16 |
| fighting goal in life haunted graveyard | 12/17/16 |
| Balding Parlor Double Fault | 10/11/24 |
| center doctorate | 11/09/16 |
| jet-lagged background story dopamine | 11/09/16 |
| Field | 11/09/16 |
| Iridescent church building cuck | 11/09/16 |
| impressive foreskin | 11/09/16 |
| vermilion excitant international law enforcement agency location | 11/09/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 11/09/16 |
| buck-toothed hissy fit gaming laptop | 11/09/16 |
| geriatric spectacular stag film | 11/09/16 |
| doobsian onyx halford pistol | 11/09/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 11/09/16 |
| Amber nofapping school | 11/09/16 |
| chestnut abode depressive | 11/09/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 11/09/16 |
| Aqua wonderful address organic girlfriend | 11/09/16 |
| Saffron Garrison Yarmulke | 11/10/16 |
| stimulating opaque market prole | 11/10/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Round Eye | 11/10/16 |
| unhinged persian institution | 11/10/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 11/10/16 |
| Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap | 11/10/16 |
| Lake people who are hurt preventive strike | 11/10/16 |
| chartreuse dilemma party of the first part | 11/14/16 |
| chest-beating puce area | 11/14/16 |
| narrow-minded yellow degenerate stead | 12/04/16 |
| fighting goal in life haunted graveyard | 12/17/16 |
| Balding Parlor Double Fault | 10/11/24 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 11/25/16 |
| sticky haunting weed whacker | 12/03/16 |
| Navy Spot Coldplay Fan | 12/04/16 |
| Naked personal credit line | 12/07/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Round Eye | 12/07/16 |
| sticky haunting weed whacker | 12/07/16 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 01/02/17 |
| azure pit macaca | 01/02/17 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 01/02/17 |
| azure pit macaca | 01/02/17 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 03/03/20 |
| Aphrodisiac Round Eye | 01/02/17 |
| 180 yapping national nowag | 01/16/17 |
| azure pit macaca | 01/20/17 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 01/20/17 |
| azure pit macaca | 01/23/17 |
| brindle pisswyrm stage | 01/23/17 |
| azure pit macaca | 01/23/17 |
| cruel-hearted senate | 01/23/17 |
| brindle pisswyrm stage | 01/23/17 |
| azure pit macaca | 01/23/17 |
| azure pit macaca | 01/25/17 |
| azure pit macaca | 01/26/17 |
| azure pit macaca | 02/06/17 |
| azure pit macaca | 02/13/17 |
| azure pit macaca | 02/27/17 |
| azure pit macaca | 05/03/17 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 05/03/17 |
| azure pit macaca | 09/21/17 |
| cyan trip faggot firefighter corner | 01/23/17 |
| shimmering arousing home | 02/27/17 |
| Fear-inspiring Locale Juggernaut | 03/22/17 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 04/17/17 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 05/08/17 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 06/20/17 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 08/10/17 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 10/15/17 |
| 180 yapping national nowag | 10/15/17 |
| pungent parlour rigor | 10/15/17 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 11/06/17 |
| Medicated bawdyhouse | 11/06/17 |
| Scarlet Mildly Autistic Voyeur | 11/08/17 |
| ungodly business firm mexican | 11/08/17 |
| autistic university | 11/13/17 |
| 180 yapping national nowag | 12/18/17 |
| geriatric spectacular stag film | 12/18/17 |
| 180 yapping national nowag | 12/18/17 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 01/30/18 |
| Aphrodisiac Round Eye | 06/01/18 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 07/18/18 |
| 180 yapping national nowag | 07/19/18 |
| demanding heaven indirect expression | 09/20/18 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 09/25/18 |
| marvelous piazza dingle berry | 10/06/18 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 10/06/18 |
| Aphrodisiac Round Eye | 10/25/18 |
| passionate spruce ceo | 10/25/18 |
| Odious station windowlicker | 11/05/18 |
| Aphrodisiac Round Eye | 11/05/18 |
| Fear-inspiring Locale Juggernaut | 11/05/18 |
| Aphrodisiac Round Eye | 11/05/18 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 01/08/19 |
| hall knife | 02/23/19 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 03/13/19 |
| Odious station windowlicker | 06/24/19 |
| Philosopher-king | 06/24/19 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 11/18/19 |
| shimmering arousing home | 02/12/20 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 02/12/20 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 03/24/20 |
| black mother | 03/24/20 |
| drab provocative community account | 04/04/20 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 04/26/20 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 05/13/20 |
| drab provocative community account | 06/05/20 |
| Seedy Sick Newt | 06/05/20 |
| drab provocative community account | 09/09/20 |
| shimmering arousing home | 09/09/20 |
| Green hyperventilating theater stage | 09/09/20 |
| Dull state famous landscape painting | 09/12/20 |
| crimson volcanic crater | 09/24/20 |
| Philosopher-king | 10/09/20 |
| 180 yapping national nowag | 10/10/20 |
| bat shit crazy beta casino idea he suggested | 10/22/20 |
| impressive foreskin | 10/22/20 |
| histrionic wagecucks forum | 10/22/20 |
| histrionic wagecucks forum | 10/22/20 |
| Bespoke Police Squad | 03/23/22 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 10/27/20 |
| Fear-inspiring Locale Juggernaut | 10/27/20 |
| Philosopher-king | 10/30/20 |
| 180 yapping national nowag | 11/03/20 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 03/22/22 |
| Sapphire stain | 03/23/22 |
| ivory point french chef | 03/23/22 |
| mood | 03/23/22 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 07/25/22 |
| Green hyperventilating theater stage | 07/25/22 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 10/23/22 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 11/16/22 |
| Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman | 04/25/23 |
| buck-toothed hissy fit gaming laptop | 04/25/23 |
| crimson volcanic crater | 04/29/23 |
| Comical Wine Hell | 05/28/23 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 02/22/24 |
| crimson volcanic crater | 02/23/24 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 05/23/24 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 08/26/24 |
| crimson volcanic crater | 09/13/24 |
| Green hyperventilating theater stage | 09/13/24 |
| crimson volcanic crater | 10/18/24 |
| Balding Parlor Double Fault | 10/11/24 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 11/06/24 |
| Appetizing Infuriating Plaza Hominid | 03/04/25 |
| Appetizing Infuriating Plaza Hominid | 03/04/25 |
| demanding heaven indirect expression | 03/04/25 |
| Balding Parlor Double Fault | 03/04/25 |
| legal warrant | 03/04/25 |
| claret karate | 03/05/25 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 03/07/25 |
| Gaped sex offender | 03/07/25 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 03/08/25 |
| Peach | 03/08/25 |
| Stirring mint indian lodge | 03/08/25 |
| goy orbison | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Purple shaky old irish cottage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Fear-inspiring Locale Juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Round Eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Round Eye another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: electric theater 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Milky disgusting skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: flushed shitlib "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Green hyperventilating theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: disrespectful swashbuckling step-uncle's house boistinker Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: lascivious selfie Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: big citrine fortuitous meteor place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Learning Disabled Jew Really Tough Guy Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Sickened contagious main people theatre Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: bat-shit-crazy boyish gay wizard Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Fishy menage March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
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March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Apoplectic reading party Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Tripping adventurous nibblets church Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: disrespectful swashbuckling step-uncle's house boistinker OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: disrespectful swashbuckling step-uncle's house boistinker And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: fragrant set 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Supple Fuchsia Therapy Scourge Upon The Earth fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: laughsome red gas station feces I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Confused immigrant 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Floppy wild wrinkle box office February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Exciting maniacal turdskin pervert You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29384262) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Odious station windowlicker Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29677869) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: hideous ruddy property athletic conference Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: histrionic wagecucks forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#41167037) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: curious whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Fear-inspiring Locale Juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Saffron Garrison Yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: cowardly ladyboy mad cow disease 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: bat-shit-crazy boyish gay wizard flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Odious station windowlicker Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: curious whorehouse From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: sooty aromatic lodge friendly grandma No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29531557) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: curious whorehouse http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: cowardly ladyboy mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: curious whorehouse looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: racy cream tanning salon Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Aquamarine multi-billionaire In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: buck-toothed hissy fit gaming laptop cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: drab provocative community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30933127) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: geriatric spectacular stag film 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: exhilarant cordovan shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: burgundy trump supporter Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Honey-headed vivacious hospital Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: geriatric spectacular stag film holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Talented chocolate house LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: geriatric spectacular stag film 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: geriatric spectacular stag film lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: bateful obsidian dog poop toaster Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: out-of-control potus partner September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: passionate spruce ceo September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Round Eye god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: shimmering arousing home XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: demanding heaven indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: chartreuse dilemma party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: chartreuse dilemma party of the first part The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: geriatric spectacular stag film let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: geriatric spectacular stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: disrespectful swashbuckling step-uncle's house boistinker This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Glittery walnut den psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Comical Wine Hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: bateful obsidian dog poop toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: geriatric spectacular stag film 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: cracking boltzmann new version This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: orchid titillating quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: brindle pisswyrm stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: geriatric spectacular stag film hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: dashing lime sound barrier Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: geriatric spectacular stag film doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Navy Spot Coldplay Fan half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Honey-headed vivacious hospital close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31763265) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Fiercely-loyal roommate You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: very tactful cruise ship sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Irradiated telephone Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Balding Parlor Double Fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Iridescent church building cuck 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: impressive foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: buck-toothed hissy fit gaming laptop this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: geriatric spectacular stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Costumed topaz office mad-dog skullcap ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31868235) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: chartreuse dilemma party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: chest-beating puce area They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: narrow-minded yellow degenerate stead Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: fighting goal in life haunted graveyard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Balding Parlor Double Fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: sticky haunting weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Navy Spot Coldplay Fan GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Naked personal credit line https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Round Eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: sticky haunting weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: azure pit macaca October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: azure pit macaca ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Round Eye truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: 180 yapping national nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: azure pit macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: azure pit macaca http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: brindle pisswyrm stage TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: azure pit macaca It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: cruel-hearted senate I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: brindle pisswyrm stage it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: azure pit macaca The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: azure pit macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: azure pit macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: azure pit macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: azure pit macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: azure pit macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: azure pit macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: azure pit macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: cyan trip faggot firefighter corner this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: shimmering arousing home One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Fear-inspiring Locale Juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: 180 yapping national nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: pungent parlour rigor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Medicated bawdyhouse credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Scarlet Mildly Autistic Voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: ungodly business firm mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: autistic university (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: 180 yapping national nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: geriatric spectacular stag film Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: 180 yapping national nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Round Eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: 180 yapping national nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: demanding heaven indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: marvelous piazza dingle berry It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Round Eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: passionate spruce ceo Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Odious station windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Round Eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Fear-inspiring Locale Juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Round Eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: hall knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Odious station windowlicker There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: shimmering arousing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: black mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: drab provocative community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: drab provocative community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Seedy Sick Newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: drab provocative community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: shimmering arousing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Green hyperventilating theater stage Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Dull state famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: crimson volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: 180 yapping national nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: bat shit crazy beta casino idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: impressive foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: histrionic wagecucks forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: histrionic wagecucks forum https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Bespoke Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Fear-inspiring Locale Juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: 180 yapping national nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Sapphire stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: ivory point french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: mood 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Green hyperventilating theater stage A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Cerebral self-absorbed patrolman https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: buck-toothed hissy fit gaming laptop why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: crimson volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Comical Wine Hell FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: crimson volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: crimson volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Green hyperventilating theater stage One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: crimson volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Balding Parlor Double Fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Appetizing Infuriating Plaza Hominid 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Appetizing Infuriating Plaza Hominid https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: demanding heaven indirect expression Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Balding Parlor Double Fault The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: legal warrant He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: claret karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Gaped sex offender 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Peach Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Stirring mint indian lodge Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: goy orbison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2,#49679495) |