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Major market inefficiency on Kalshi, They are selling $1 for $0.30
| Bill Paxton and Paul Reiser in ALIENS | 12/15/25 |
| .,.,,...,...,..,....,...,...,... | 12/15/25 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 15th, 2025 8:01 PM Author: Bill Paxton and Paul Reiser in ALIENS Kalshi has a contract for "Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros?": https://kalshi.com/markets/kxacquannounceparamount/paramount/kxacquannounceparamount-warn
You might think this requires a closed transaction, but all it requires is an announcement!
"If Paramount Skydance Corporation announces an agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from the New York Times, Securities and Exchange Commission, Bloomberg, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, ABC, BBC, The Guardian, Financial Times, Warner Bros, and Paramount. The announcement must involve a definitive, binding agreement accompanied by public announcement. Letters of intent, memoranda of understanding, or agreements in principle do not qualify. The deal does not need to close"
There's thin volume on this but you can now buy March 26 contracts for $0.25-0.30 that pay $1.00 (can trade this exchange on Robinhood). Almost certain that shareholders will prefer $108b vs $80b, Netflix will not ask shareholders for more money to settle a grudge.
Furthermore, Polymarket has a lot more liquidity and has much higher prices for similar contracts. Ease into your position with limit orders and let it take time to process, don't do a $10k at the market order lol. |
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Date: December 15th, 2025 10:27 PM Author: .,.,,...,...,..,....,...,...,... My understanding is that the Netflix deal would let WB shareholders keep CNN and a few other assets, whereas Paramount is bidding for all of WB. Once you take that into account, the bids are pretty close to one another. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5810745&forum_id=2:#49512711) |