L.A. County recorded just 3,072 home sales in January — the lowest monthly total in three years — as a national gap widened to a record 630,000 more sellers than buyers.

This month’s ceasefire deal has already sparked activity, according to one agent, who says new escrows are up in L.A. County. Sales data have yet to reflect this momentum though.

Katie Davis has whiplash.

A longtime renter, she’s in the market for her first home, but she needs mortgage rates to drop in order to afford the monthly payments. Anything under 6% would be feasible.

For the last year, she’s been tracking them like a hawk. She watched them fall from 7% last spring to 6.5% last fall until they finally dipped below 6% in February.

“I thought my time had finally come,” Davis said.

Days later, a series of airstrikes kicked off the Iran war, spiking mortgage rates. Then, this month, the U.S. struck a ceasefire deal, bringing rates back down again. During that stretch, Davis has waffled between hopeless and hopeful on a weekly basis.

“I just want a little starter house in El Sereno, but somehow it feels contingent on whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or not,” she said.

A small swing in mortgage rates might not feel like much, but for many first-time homebuyers, the margins of affordability are razor-thin in Southern California’s expensive market, and $200 more for a monthly payment is the difference between keeping up with a loan or being crushed by it.

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