Polymarket screwing over traders re Venezuela
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: January 6th, 2026 3:52 PM Author: Azure blood rage
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”
“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”
https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767732697146
https://x.com/trader_53/status/2008545328824549664?s=46
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567156) |
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM Author: Aqua spectacular library
Obvious yes
But this is why you don't bet on stuff like this tbh. I wouldn't even put a substantial sum of money on an election on these platforms. You always run the risk of some Jewish bullshit like this
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567354) |
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:33 PM Author: electric yellow mediation indian lodge
This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterargument that isn't just based on feelings?
The market is "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" And they define "invasion" as "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela."
Dropping some special ops in for a limited time to extract the president is far from an invasion--i.e., an "offensive intended to establish control over" over territory. If there were boots on the ground to take and hold territory, it would be another thing. But there are not and have not been.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567445)
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Date: January 6th, 2026 7:31 PM Author: Coiffed Avocado Location Headpube
If there was a breaking news report that “the us is invading Venezuela” no one would be like “but that already happened”.
The common sense version says this wasn’t an invasion and nothing in their terms is enough to override that.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567704) |
Date: January 6th, 2026 8:17 PM Author: comical site
I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567818)
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