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Polymarket screwing over traders re Venezuela

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Un...
pale chapel
  01/06/26
get a life you fucking dork
Haunting garrison
  01/06/26
get off this bort you closeted fag
pale chapel
  01/06/26
you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you ...
Haunting garrison
  01/06/26
you are literally a closeted fag
pale chapel
  01/06/26
you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.
Haunting garrison
  01/07/26
i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes&qu...
exhilarant alcoholic public bath
  01/06/26
LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking bl...
Excitant lay antidepressant drug
  01/06/26
It's fraud they need to pay out
Medicated Dysfunction University
  01/06/26
The market is about an "invasion." It's about taki...
aromatic den
  01/06/26
The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of a...
Razzle-dazzle Ruddy Tanning Salon Mad-dog Skullcap
  01/06/26
Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) d...
aromatic den
  01/06/26
Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the int...
Medicated Dysfunction University
  01/06/26
The market is for an invasion. The definition requires estab...
aromatic den
  01/06/26
https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites...
Razzle-dazzle Ruddy Tanning Salon Mad-dog Skullcap
  01/06/26
The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls...
Razzle-dazzle Ruddy Tanning Salon Mad-dog Skullcap
  01/06/26
seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt inten...
citrine vigorous pit
  01/06/26
(Peter Thiel)
pale chapel
  01/06/26
yes its not like orange man said we run it now
Flickering chartreuse gas station pocket flask
  01/06/26
I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.
Sticky arrogant nursing home
  01/06/26
Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this?...
Medicated Dysfunction University
  01/06/26
usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting&rd...
pale chapel
  01/06/26
...
aromatic den
  01/06/26
cr
Brindle thirsty sneaky criminal
  01/06/26
...
judgmental puppy parlor
  01/07/26
IRL Topicality moment
saffron plaza crotch
  01/06/26
...
Onyx Glittery Area
  01/06/26
companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhau...
opaque spectacular range
  01/06/26
It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate w...
Medicated Dysfunction University
  01/06/26
(guy who no longer has $1,600)
opaque spectacular range
  01/06/26
...
citrine vigorous pit
  01/06/26
...
orange gaping
  01/07/26
It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after ...
mauve odious digit ratio school
  01/06/26
...
Razzle-dazzle Ruddy Tanning Salon Mad-dog Skullcap
  01/06/26
There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The ter...
Medicated Dysfunction University
  01/06/26
Obvious yes But this is why you don't bet on stuff like t...
Razzle-dazzle Ruddy Tanning Salon Mad-dog Skullcap
  01/06/26
This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterar...
aromatic den
  01/06/26
cr, not a close call imo
citrine vigorous pit
  01/06/26
Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so cle...
pale chapel
  01/06/26
The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said ...
aromatic den
  01/06/26
Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago.&qu...
Razzle-dazzle Ruddy Tanning Salon Mad-dog Skullcap
  01/06/26
This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "co...
Medicated Dysfunction University
  01/06/26
this. it was a military offensive intended to establish cont...
exhilarant alcoholic public bath
  01/06/26
Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acr...
Medicated Dysfunction University
  01/06/26
So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't ma...
Medicated Dysfunction University
  01/06/26
are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling...
Idiotic Center
  01/06/26
the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so ...
pale chapel
  01/06/26
If there was a breaking news report that “the us is in...
hideous magical corner round eye
  01/06/26
His house was invaded (briefly)
Supple sweet tailpipe resort
  01/06/26
...
Supple sweet tailpipe resort
  01/06/26
I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.
Deranged cerebral stead idea he suggested
  01/06/26
I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise
Supple sweet tailpipe resort
  01/07/26
Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game https://x.com...
pale chapel
  01/07/26
now this is just a straight up scam
citrine vigorous pit
  01/07/26
Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?
Medicated Dysfunction University
  01/07/26
Just made 60,000 dollars
Onyx Glittery Area
  01/07/26
?
Supple sweet tailpipe resort
  01/07/26
i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" h...
exhilarant alcoholic public bath
  01/07/26
...
Supple sweet tailpipe resort
  01/10/26


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:52 PM
Author: pale chapel

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767732697146

https://x.com/trader_53/status/2008545328824549664?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567156)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:35 PM
Author: Haunting garrison

get a life you fucking dork

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567289)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:42 PM
Author: pale chapel

get off this bort you closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567303)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: Haunting garrison

you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you are a dick chopping tranny retard pedophile. the world would be better off if you'd just go away once and for all.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567306)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:03 PM
Author: pale chapel

you are literally a closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567363)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 9:45 AM
Author: Haunting garrison

you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49568632)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:56 PM
Author: exhilarant alcoholic public bath

i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes". they defined it pretty broadly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567168)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:29 PM
Author: Excitant lay antidepressant drug

LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking black bag what kind of bullshit is this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567271)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: Medicated Dysfunction University

It's fraud they need to pay out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567336)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: aromatic den

The market is about an "invasion." It's about taking and controlling territory. That hasn't happened. It still might by the end of the month.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567449)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:41 PM
Author: Razzle-dazzle Ruddy Tanning Salon Mad-dog Skullcap

The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of abducting its head of state was to establish control of Venezuela. The operation was successful

You are confusing the words "control" and "occupy"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567472)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: aromatic den

Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) does the US control? The US doesn't control Venezuela via an invasion any more than the US uses its power to influence a lot of countries.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567477)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: Medicated Dysfunction University

Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the intent to deprive Venezuela of that territory. Even a peppercorn of time is enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567484)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: aromatic den

The market is for an invasion. The definition requires establishing control of a portion of territory.

Could you point on a map to which portion of Venezuelan territory the US invaded with the intent to control? You're right that it could be a small portion.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567491)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: Razzle-dazzle Ruddy Tanning Salon Mad-dog Skullcap

https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/oe_theme_medium_no_crop/public/2019-02/venezuela_en.png?itok=aeBbLnHe

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567497)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: Razzle-dazzle Ruddy Tanning Salon Mad-dog Skullcap

The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls the country of Venezuela, as a statement of fact, as demonstrated by the fact that it can simply remove its nominal political "head of state" at will, whenever it wants, as it just did

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567492)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:33 PM
Author: citrine vigorous pit

seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt intend to control any area of Venezuela, they captured its president and are pressuring the current government to do their will.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567286)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:43 PM
Author: pale chapel

(Peter Thiel)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567304)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: Flickering chartreuse gas station pocket flask

yes its not like orange man said we run it now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567305)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:50 PM
Author: Sticky arrogant nursing home

I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567316)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:57 PM
Author: Medicated Dysfunction University

Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this? Maduro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567341)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: pale chapel

usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting” but they removed that language since it would make it harder to screw over their traders

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567356)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: aromatic den



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567479)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:35 PM
Author: Brindle thirsty sneaky criminal

cr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567713)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:45 AM
Author: judgmental puppy parlor



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49568504)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:45 PM
Author: saffron plaza crotch

IRL Topicality moment

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567307)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:54 PM
Author: Onyx Glittery Area



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567330)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: opaque spectacular range

companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhaustively draft out the terms of selling you toilet paper, and they still leave ambiguities. why would anyone ever expect that degens gambling on geopolitical upheavals described in a blurb with no transparency or accountability would be a good idea?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567334)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:59 PM
Author: Medicated Dysfunction University

It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate when it arrested him, and the estate is located in Venezuela. Even if the control was only fleeting, it damn sure wasn't unintentional

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567348)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:02 PM
Author: opaque spectacular range

(guy who no longer has $1,600)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567360)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:13 PM
Author: citrine vigorous pit



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567396)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 6:19 AM
Author: orange gaping



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49568389)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: mauve odious digit ratio school

It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after the fact. It's a feature.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567517)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:00 PM
Author: Razzle-dazzle Ruddy Tanning Salon Mad-dog Skullcap



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567526)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:11 PM
Author: Medicated Dysfunction University

There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The terms are clear.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567542)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: Razzle-dazzle Ruddy Tanning Salon Mad-dog Skullcap

Obvious yes

But this is why you don't bet on stuff like this tbh. I wouldn't even put a substantial sum of money on an election on these platforms. You always run the risk of some Jewish bullshit like this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567354)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:33 PM
Author: aromatic den

This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterargument that isn't just based on feelings?

The market is "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" And they define "invasion" as "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela."

Dropping some special ops in for a limited time to extract the president is far from an invasion--i.e., an "offensive intended to establish control over" over territory. If there were boots on the ground to take and hold territory, it would be another thing. But there are not and have not been.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567445)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: citrine vigorous pit

cr, not a close call imo

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567451)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:37 PM
Author: pale chapel

Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so clear that they even had to address it in their statement screwing people over. There must’ve been a huge whale or polymarket insider on the other side of that trade

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567465)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: aromatic den

The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said we're going to "lock Her up." Where are we on that?)

The market is for an invasion controlling Venezuelan territory. That hasn't happened.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567485)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: Razzle-dazzle Ruddy Tanning Salon Mad-dog Skullcap

Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567493)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: Medicated Dysfunction University

This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela." Trump doesn't have to actually run anything, he only has to commence a military offensive with that intent. Having actual control is sufficient but not NECESSARY to prove intent.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567498)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:54 PM
Author: exhilarant alcoholic public bath

this. it was a military offensive intended to establish control over caracas generally and at the very least maduro's residence for however long it was necessary in order to capture him.

the issue here is "control" and the time period it takes to constitute it. polymarket thought they were describing something more permanent and substantial, but they didn't spell that out and i think it's hard to argue that landing a bunch of helicopters into maduro's front yard, killing his security guards, and forcibly removing him wasn't taking "control" of his house which is a "portion" of venezuela. "intent" is there the minute you give the order.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567509)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: Medicated Dysfunction University

Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acres of land in Venezuela for a period of some several minutes, and not by accident

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567514)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: Medicated Dysfunction University

So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't make DHS pay full price for hotel rooms?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567489)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:10 PM
Author: Idiotic Center

are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling platform is being legalistic and dishonest? LOL.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567539)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:20 PM
Author: pale chapel

the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so it doesn’t really make sense for polymarket to screw over their users. they’re just a bookie. unless a polymarket insider or whale with connections was on the other side of the trade and pulled some strings. either way what they’re doing is dishonest. at a minimum they should not have titled the market “invade” if sending the military into foreign sovereign territory and arresting its president doesn’t count.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567682)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:31 PM
Author: hideous magical corner round eye

If there was a breaking news report that “the us is invading Venezuela” no one would be like “but that already happened”.

The common sense version says this wasn’t an invasion and nothing in their terms is enough to override that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567704)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:15 PM
Author: Supple sweet tailpipe resort

His house was invaded (briefly)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567813)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:11 PM
Author: Supple sweet tailpipe resort



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567795)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:17 PM
Author: Deranged cerebral stead idea he suggested

I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49567818)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 5:48 AM
Author: Supple sweet tailpipe resort

I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49568381)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 7:59 AM
Author: pale chapel

Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game

https://x.com/dustingouker/status/2008748429024133125?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49568440)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:16 AM
Author: citrine vigorous pit

now this is just a straight up scam

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49568452)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:18 AM
Author: Medicated Dysfunction University

Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49568453)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:16 AM
Author: Onyx Glittery Area

Just made 60,000 dollars

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49568707)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:29 AM
Author: Supple sweet tailpipe resort

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49568727)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:30 AM
Author: exhilarant alcoholic public bath

i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" here. the terms are so broad even a child could make a reasonable argument for "yes".

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49568730)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 10th, 2026 10:01 PM
Author: Supple sweet tailpipe resort



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2],#49579920)