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Seems obvious the S&P500 & DJIA will trim 10-15% some time in the next 12 months
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Date: October 7th, 2025 10:18 AM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; Is it shrewd to just move money completely out of equities now? And put it where? USTs? I have a hard time believing that there much more room to run with this scammy phase where 90+% of the gains are based on these imaginary future data centers that would crash the grid if they actually all got built. It’s a shame crypto got so bastardized and tied to this scam cycle, since a major part of the point of it once upon a time was to be a refuge in this kind of situation. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331480) |
Date: October 7th, 2025 10:22 AM Author: UhOh if you think this is the play, put it into BIL or SGOV and sit back and wait. but people have been doing this for a year or two now and crying themselves to sleep at night. also when the 10% dip comes you're going to chicken out. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331483) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 11:27 AM Author: richard clock (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331593) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 11:59 AM (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331664) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 12:11 PM Author: Mark Sanchez /thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331700) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 10:23 AM Author: ....;..;...;;;.....;;......;; People like you thought this last year too. And the year before.
Eventually you’ll be right, after missing out on 50% gains.
I remember a prominent poaster loudly proclaiming he was going all cash after the first few months of the Trump run first term.
He retired a couple of years later. The S&P is up 3x since. |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 10:40 AM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; A year ago it was clear the AI hype cycle had just ramped up. There are many more indicators that it’s maturing now. The main pillar of this thesis is that we’re timing the pullback of that specific cycle. It’s certain that it’s sooner than 30 months out and the over/under would be set at around 9 months. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331509) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 10:51 AM Author: AZNgirl failing to give Brilyn Hollyhand erection nigga, if ther eis going to be an AI bubble it wont be for years cause Ai shit is just starting nigga no one knows how it will play out nigga
ps im retarded and gay |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 11:17 AM Author: ....;..;...;;;.....;;......;; Hindsight fallacy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331570) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 11:17 AM Author: Nazca Redlines Ran here, toting bags of inflated paper gains (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331571) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 10:25 AM Author: AZNgirl failing to give Brilyn Hollyhand erection ive been selling so that means market will moon another 10-20% easily
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Date: October 7th, 2025 10:33 AM Author: don diaper (🧐) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331496) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 10:28 AM Author: ;..........,,,...,,.;.,,...,,,;.;.....;;;. the money printers will continue. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331494) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 10:33 AM Author: don diaper (🧐) Until one day they won't. But I'm sure we'll all be fine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331499) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 10:34 AM Author: UhOh i can't predict the future, but i can guarun-fucking-tee you the money printers will never stop. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331500) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 11:21 AM Author: excellent subthread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331579) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 11:27 AM Author: don diaper (🧐) (japanesebusinessdood) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331591) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 10:37 AM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; The limiting factor is that we’re now selling too much debt and we’re running out of buyers. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331506) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 11:02 AM Author: Mud If consensus was 10% drop then the market would drop 10% now.
I think the current gains aren’t sustainable. But that might just mean a decade of slow gains.
I am diversifying. Was 99% VOO for the past ten years. But I’m adding some BND and SGOV for diversification. If the market tanks 10% I’ll move back to full VOO. |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 5:11 PM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; This seems very credited. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49332502) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 11:06 AM Author: Darnell trying to time this is stupid. over the last 12 years, you could identify 2-3 times a year when equities looked way too high and a pullback was "certain."
just keep DCAing into the market. forever |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 5:57 PM Author: ~~(> ' ' )> (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49332597) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 11:14 AM Author: Paralegal Amos don't listen to these idiots. sell now and then buy back in when prices are 15% below today's prices. guaranteed profit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331565) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 11:19 AM Author: excellent subthread Market timing trading is one of the biggest low IQ tells in the known universe. You will not get it right, don't bother trying. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331575) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 11:28 AM Author: ....;..;...;;;.....;;......;; But we KNEW it would keep going up last year!!! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331595) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 11:43 AM Author: AI_concubine Ok so when should I sell guys?? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331635) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 12:02 PM Author: wait till biggus dickus hears of this You never sell. Just buy forever and then pass the holdings to ur heirs for DAT step up basis (they can also never sell btw) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331674) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 12:30 PM Their heirs? Believe it or not they can also never sell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331753) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 2:54 PM Author: peeface when
(a) you need the money or (b) clearly have somewhere better to put it (eg exuent is pushing $8 SOL)
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Date: October 7th, 2025 12:16 PM Author: Darnell basically it's a lesson every young investor or trader learns in their first couple years. i'm always amazed when i hear 50-somethings talk about shit like this. you've had 30+ years in the market and you think you're going to time it right? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331715) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 5:15 PM Author: AI_concubine Other people can’t but I know when to time the market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49332514) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 5:33 PM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; Comparing the past to the current market, which is largely premised on continued spending by a handful of companies and hugely dependent on one company that routinely overpromises and underdelivers, is dumb. It’s a specific business cycle for one set of products in one industry. That’s definitely something knowledgeable analysts who study that industry and those products should be expected to predict with reasonable success. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49332547) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 11:26 AM Author: Barry Stanton 55x (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331588) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 11:29 AM Author: ,.,,,. I'm holding strc but plan to sell on October 15th after I get my dividends with long term cap gains. I think right now can try to sell bullish outs of Amazon. If market drops you get it about 10% off current price. Otherwise just get 1%/month gain. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331603) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 12:28 PM Author: AZNgirl failing to give Brilyn Hollyhand erection wtf is a bullish puts nigga? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331738) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 12:01 PM Number one go up, FRIEND (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331667) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 12:02 PM Author: ,.,,,. Fuck I should've sold this am. This was the top. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331675) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 12:32 PM Author: click here to Learn More (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331759) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 2:56 PM Author: UhOh for every top there's a bottom (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49332145) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 12:31 PM Author: AZNgirl failing to give Brilyn Hollyhand erection this thread is so retarded, literally every 12m period u have a 10% drawdown u stupid nigga, did u really think u wld go anotehr year without 10% down ever nigga (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331758) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 12:35 PM Author: seek christ ((zurich is stained)) timing the market is very dangerous. just DCA and let do.
i've always been a big believer in the S&P or total stock market index funds, but i have put like $250k into individual stocks - TSLA, NVDA, PLTR, HOOD, RKLB (thanks poaster). i think these companies are all strong long-term HODLS. i could be wrong, who knows. |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 2:58 PM Author: animeboi (.) TSLA is absolutely trash and never made any profit if you exclude subsidies. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49332151) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 4:16 PM Author: seek christ ((zurich is stained)) as a car company, yes. they are going to own the robotaxi and home robot markets. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49332357) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 5:14 PM Author: don diaper (🧐) assuming we enact 200% tariffs on chyna, of course (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49332512) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 12:43 PM Author: All American protestor waving Mexican flag tp Use all your money to short the market and make a fortune. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49331793) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 3:02 PM Author: charles XII Why would 10% be enough to get you to do this? Seems dumb. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49332158) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 3:12 PM Author: .,,,.,.,.,.,.,,,,..,,..,.,.,., the premise of this is that AI is hype, when we are still seeing reasonable sized gains on most AI benchmarks every 1-2 months. Opus 4.1 and Sonnet 2.5 were released two months apart and saw a small but meaningful performance boost. the current training runs likely only used a maximum of around 10x the training compute of the first version of GPT-4, and the new clusters will support 100x training runs. in all likelihood, the models 2 years from now are likely to be significantly more powerful and generally useful and could plausibly justify even more crazy datacenter building.
energy is likely to only be a major obstacle by around 2030, when training runs are likely to be capped at 10,000x GPT-4 scale. |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 4:50 PM Author: ;..........,,,...,,.;.,,...,,,;.;.....;;;. is this really true regarding improvements? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49332473) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 4:52 PM Author: Gay Grandpa How should he respond to that? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49332474) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 5:09 PM Author: .,,,.,.,.,.,.,,,,..,,..,.,.,., I think there’s some confusion around this subject because gpt-5 was only slightly better than o3 on most benchmarks. The problem with this is that there was a small period of time between o3 and GPT-5. OpenAI has been steadily releasing new models since GPT-4, so there was no large jump in model capabilities. GPT-5 is still significantly better than GPT-4 though. It appears there is still substantial room for more RL training so that models can more effectively leverage chain of thought, so large data centers are likely to enhance model quality. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49332500) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 5:29 PM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; Progress of LLMs means roughly fuck all right now. These are still effectively tech tool parlor tricks in an enterprise context and any effort to monetize the consumer side beyond what’s already been done will kill growth.
The skeptical case is specific to the lack of actual implementation of real, measurable and successful AI deployments in large enterprises. And while we all may grasp that it’s inevitable on a long enough timeline, there’s still as much uncertainty of where we will be in two years as there was a year ago. Cf. public cloud adoption where 1) the business cycle was perfectly timed, and 2) there were these enthusiastic large scale early adopters who had logical and intuitive reasons to take the leap and prefer it as the premise of how they would operate in the future. We are already at a point where companies who were interested in AI implementations tried some evals and have let their enthusiasts spend 6+ quarters hyping their projects while they’ve dicked around. The hope a year ago and currently is that most of those companies are going to follow those evals up with actual spend of dollars in their BU budgets, but many companies are just trying other evals and not putting up any real money.
The current phase of the hype cycle is there are a bunch of bigcorp middle managers who have spent the last 2-3 years super studying AI and hoping that it was their ticket to an exec title and the career success they have craved for the last 7-10 years (since they realized they missed the boat with cloud and SaaS). When their management decides to pull the plug on any real spend—eg because we have 2-3 straight quarters of stagflation and demand for their products is slowing and they want to tighten belts to support the stock price—there will be a correction. I don’t think it will be a huge crash, thus my 10-15% call, basically putting the market back at the trajectory it had from 2010-2019. But I’d call some kind of correction like that more likely than not between now and the midterms (for obvious reasons). |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 4:56 PM Author: AZNgirl failing to give Brilyn Hollyhand erection The market is definitely either go up bigly or go down
Until a few days ago the sentiment was THIS RALLY IS CRAZSY its gonna crash but then u had a few bigwigs say oh its gonna boom more and now the sentiment seems positive
which prob means its gonna crash but who cares cause jews rule so actually a 10% correction now wld be healthy for QQQ 700 |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 5:14 PM Author: \'\'\"\"\'\'\'\" trim and sell puts (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2],#49332511) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 5:36 PM Author: AZNgirl failing to give Brilyn Hollyhand erection ljl ive had puts MU and SOXL last week or so and each day they still go up
u have to literally time the market perfectly to make money on puts in this market cause shit cld easily just go up 5% more
alt is to keep buying down as u get ass raped and hope it has a down day like today
but just buying a put 3m out? it cld get ass raped if market keeps going way up |