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How large of a portfolio is needed to spend $200k annually indefinitely?

...
Rough-skinned space
  07/07/25
10mm
brass vigorous philosopher-king theatre
  07/07/25
fuck my ass.
Soul-stirring Roast Beef
  07/07/25
This seems about right. $10 million yields $300k pretax annu...
Rough-skinned space
  07/07/25
There is no 3% rule. No one needs to be that conservative. ...
dark codepig public bath
  07/07/25
its not even that conservative dude. inflation, fees, fines,...
brass vigorous philosopher-king theatre
  07/07/25
To my mind, 3% is aggressive going forward and a 2.5% or eve...
Rough-skinned space
  07/07/25
3% cagr means you could live 45 years with $5M on $200K spen...
Cracking alpha partner
  07/07/25
you are retarded if you pay an effective tax rate of 33% on ...
Odious cruel-hearted toaster
  07/07/25
Paying taxes is the law
Rough-skinned space
  07/07/25
Even if you are single, do no tax planning and have no deduc...
Odious cruel-hearted toaster
  07/08/25
You're forgetting state taxes 😵‍💫
Rough-skinned space
  07/08/25
$6m
Mewling parlor
  07/07/25
$200k is this supposed to be some kind of a trick question
180 fantasy-prone chapel
  07/07/25
...
Hideous Church Building
  07/07/25
...
hyperactive keepsake machete resort
  07/07/25
...
pearly disrespectful halford
  07/07/25
Between $4m-$5m depending on how conservative/aggressive you...
dark codepig public bath
  07/07/25
I said spend, so obviously I meant post-tax
Rough-skinned space
  07/07/25
Between $5.3m - $7.5m depending on various assumptions and d...
dark codepig public bath
  07/07/25
what the fuck are you buying every year?
Sienna insecure associate senate
  07/07/25
I dunno. Might enjoy having a place to live, food to eat, c...
Rough-skinned space
  07/07/25
you can do that for far less even in blue states.
Sienna insecure associate senate
  07/07/25
Think of it this way. Hedge funds typically charge 2 and 20...
Pale principal's office persian
  07/07/25
answers like this always amaze me on xo. basic percentages b...
brass vigorous philosopher-king theatre
  07/07/25
This makes no sense. OP, don’t think about it this way...
jade hall
  07/07/25
And yet, the answer it gives (between 5 and 7 million) is th...
Pale principal's office persian
  07/07/25
Lmao
Offensive magical bbw
  07/07/25
you probably literally only need $4m for that. Assuming you...
Sienna insecure associate senate
  07/07/25
I'll probably have $10 million or thereabouts when I hit The...
Rough-skinned space
  07/07/25
the reality though is that you should actually spend the 200...
brass vigorous philosopher-king theatre
  07/07/25
You wanna try that again
Rough-skinned space
  07/07/25
he clearly meant "shouldn't"
Sienna insecure associate senate
  07/07/25
Depends, how much of the principal do you want to leave behi...
nudist haunted graveyard
  07/07/25
Leave behind for what
Rough-skinned space
  07/07/25
whatever you want my friend. kids, family, charity, etc.
nudist haunted graveyard
  07/07/25
fuck jews
pearly disrespectful halford
  07/07/25
"Leaving behind" makes almost no sense unless you'...
dark codepig public bath
  07/07/25
why is everyone assuming ~1/3 in taxes? that’s a high ...
Soul-stirring Roast Beef
  07/07/25
generally retirement income from QPs is ordinary income.
nudist haunted graveyard
  07/07/25
withdrawals from 401(k)s and the like, yes. but i don’...
Soul-stirring Roast Beef
  07/07/25


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:03 PM
Author: Rough-skinned space



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079518)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:04 PM
Author: brass vigorous philosopher-king theatre

10mm

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079524)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:09 PM
Author: Soul-stirring Roast Beef

fuck my ass.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079549)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:10 PM
Author: Rough-skinned space

This seems about right. $10 million yields $300k pretax annually under the 3% rule, and assume 1/3 tax rate

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079556)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:10 PM
Author: dark codepig public bath

There is no 3% rule. No one needs to be that conservative. There is no version of the Trinity Study which supports this.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079558)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:12 PM
Author: brass vigorous philosopher-king theatre

its not even that conservative dude. inflation, fees, fines, taxes, etc gobble up all of your supposed "earnings". the economy isnt really growing faster than that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079572)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:15 PM
Author: Rough-skinned space

To my mind, 3% is aggressive going forward and a 2.5% or even 2% rule is probably more appropriate

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079584)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 4:07 PM
Author: Cracking alpha partner

3% cagr means you could live 45 years with $5M on $200K spend and not run out of $. If you can get 5% then you can do $4.2M and never have your balance drop.

edit: factor 2% inflation to the $200K spend - you'd run out of $ in 45 years with $5M

edit v2: I guess if you pay 25% taxes you'd run out of $ in 30 years vs. 44 and change, assuming you pay taxes on the $ you withdraw/spend

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079801)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 5:30 PM
Author: Odious cruel-hearted toaster

you are retarded if you pay an effective tax rate of 33% on 300k in investment income.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49080104)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 6:20 PM
Author: Rough-skinned space

Paying taxes is the law

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49080286)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 8th, 2025 6:02 AM
Author: Odious cruel-hearted toaster

Even if you are single, do no tax planning and have no deductions whatsoever, and every penny of income is STCG or dividends, the effective tax rate is still less than 25%. Additional medicare tax and NIIT pushes it to a bit over 26%. Even in the basic worst case scenario you don't pay 33%.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49081696)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 8th, 2025 11:01 AM
Author: Rough-skinned space

You're forgetting state taxes 😵‍💫

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49082266)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:07 PM
Author: Mewling parlor

$6m

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079539)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:08 PM
Author: 180 fantasy-prone chapel

$200k is this supposed to be some kind of a trick question

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079545)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:11 PM
Author: Hideous Church Building



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079562)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:44 PM
Author: hyperactive keepsake machete resort



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079697)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 4:39 PM
Author: pearly disrespectful halford



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079950)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:11 PM
Author: dark codepig public bath

Between $4m-$5m depending on how conservative/aggressive you want to be. That's to get $200k pre-tax (increasing annually for inflation); you'd need to adjust upward if you want a post-tax figure.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079563)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:15 PM
Author: Rough-skinned space

I said spend, so obviously I meant post-tax

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079588)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:27 PM
Author: dark codepig public bath

Between $5.3m - $7.5m depending on various assumptions and desired level of conservatism.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079633)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:53 PM
Author: Sienna insecure associate senate

what the fuck are you buying every year?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079741)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:58 PM
Author: Rough-skinned space

I dunno. Might enjoy having a place to live, food to eat, clothes to wear, and so on.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079756)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 5:14 PM
Author: Sienna insecure associate senate

you can do that for far less even in blue states.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49080051)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:36 PM
Author: Pale principal's office persian

Think of it this way. Hedge funds typically charge 2 and 20 (2% management fee on the principal, plus 20% of that year's return as a performance fee). So think of yourself as the manager of your personal "fund".

If you assume you're getting an 5% rate of return on your invested capital on average (pretty conservative), then you'd need $6,666,667. This would give a management fee of $133,333 plus a performance fee of $66,667 (6,666,667 * .05 * .20), which adds up to $200k. If you assume a 10% rate of return (maybe too aggressive) then you'd only need $5 million.

I am ignoring taxes here, you'd need a higher amount if you want $200k post tax.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079668)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:41 PM
Author: brass vigorous philosopher-king theatre

answers like this always amaze me on xo. basic percentages but no reference to the fact that a guy who has 6.7mm in 2025 america shouldnt be thinking about "hedge funds" at all.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079685)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:50 PM
Author: jade hall

This makes no sense. OP, don’t think about it this way.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079724)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 4:27 PM
Author: Pale principal's office persian

And yet, the answer it gives (between 5 and 7 million) is the same as everyone else is saying. It's a reasonable rule of thumb that still lets the principal grow.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079896)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:59 PM
Author: Offensive magical bbw

Lmao

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079760)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:52 PM
Author: Sienna insecure associate senate

you probably literally only need $4m for that. Assuming you are reasonable with it. e.g., take out less during down market years, take out more when the market is up/stable.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079738)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:56 PM
Author: Rough-skinned space

I'll probably have $10 million or thereabouts when I hit The Wall in a couple years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079751)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 3:59 PM
Author: brass vigorous philosopher-king theatre

the reality though is that you should actually spend the 200k or even 100k unless youre puting a kid through college or something.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079762)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 4:01 PM
Author: Rough-skinned space

You wanna try that again

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079775)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 5:15 PM
Author: Sienna insecure associate senate

he clearly meant "shouldn't"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49080054)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 4:00 PM
Author: nudist haunted graveyard

Depends, how much of the principal do you want to leave behind? Assuming all or most of it, and a 4-6% withdrawal rate and 35% estimated taxes you'd need between 5-7.5m.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079773)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 4:02 PM
Author: Rough-skinned space

Leave behind for what

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079779)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 4:02 PM
Author: nudist haunted graveyard

whatever you want my friend. kids, family, charity, etc.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079783)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 4:39 PM
Author: pearly disrespectful halford

fuck jews

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079946)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 5:36 PM
Author: dark codepig public bath

"Leaving behind" makes almost no sense unless you're talking truly generational wealth, which the OP isn't. It's another shit boomer concept, i.e., it's cool to be shitty egoists all your life because you'll leave son Johnny and daughter Lisa $4.1m when you die at 93 which will somehow absolve your sins.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49080120)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 4:22 PM
Author: Soul-stirring Roast Beef

why is everyone assuming ~1/3 in taxes? that’s a high blended rate for that level of income in the first place, and i wouldn’t think it would be too hard to structure most of the income as LTCG. this admittedly leaves aside the issue of taxes remaining close their current rates indefinitely.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079865)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 4:46 PM
Author: nudist haunted graveyard

generally retirement income from QPs is ordinary income.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49079978)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2025 8:34 PM
Author: Soul-stirring Roast Beef

withdrawals from 401(k)s and the like, yes. but i don’t think someone with $5-10M in cash/stocks/bonds has most of that in a 401(k).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5747172&forum_id=2],#49080738)