\
  The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
BackRefresh Options Favorite

Polymarket screwing over traders re Venezuela

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Un...
misunderstood lodge
  01/06/26
get a life you fucking dork
Orchid cracking public bath idiot
  01/06/26
get off this bort you closeted fag
misunderstood lodge
  01/06/26
you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you ...
Orchid cracking public bath idiot
  01/06/26
you are literally a closeted fag
misunderstood lodge
  01/06/26
you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.
Orchid cracking public bath idiot
  01/07/26
i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes&qu...
chocolate mother
  01/06/26
LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking bl...
Coiffed stead water buffalo
  01/06/26
It's fraud they need to pay out
Chrome Spot
  01/06/26
The market is about an "invasion." It's about taki...
Histrionic police squad ape
  01/06/26
The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of a...
brilliant circlehead theater
  01/06/26
Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) d...
Histrionic police squad ape
  01/06/26
Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the int...
Chrome Spot
  01/06/26
The market is for an invasion. The definition requires estab...
Histrionic police squad ape
  01/06/26
https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites...
brilliant circlehead theater
  01/06/26
The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls...
brilliant circlehead theater
  01/06/26
seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt inten...
excitant painfully honest twinkling uncleanness
  01/06/26
(Peter Thiel)
misunderstood lodge
  01/06/26
yes its not like orange man said we run it now
Swollen church
  01/06/26
I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.
fluffy field place of business
  01/06/26
Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this?...
Chrome Spot
  01/06/26
usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting&rd...
misunderstood lodge
  01/06/26
...
Histrionic police squad ape
  01/06/26
cr
rusted heaven
  01/06/26
...
avocado racy roommate stage
  01/07/26
IRL Topicality moment
cobalt sex offender national
  01/06/26
...
Salmon codepig mediation
  01/06/26
companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhau...
heady brindle bawdyhouse voyeur
  01/06/26
It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate w...
Chrome Spot
  01/06/26
(guy who no longer has $1,600)
heady brindle bawdyhouse voyeur
  01/06/26
...
excitant painfully honest twinkling uncleanness
  01/06/26
...
Beady-eyed kitchen filthpig
  01/07/26
It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after ...
azure contagious party of the first part shrine
  01/06/26
...
brilliant circlehead theater
  01/06/26
There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The ter...
Chrome Spot
  01/06/26
Obvious yes But this is why you don't bet on stuff like t...
brilliant circlehead theater
  01/06/26
This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterar...
Histrionic police squad ape
  01/06/26
cr, not a close call imo
excitant painfully honest twinkling uncleanness
  01/06/26
Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so cle...
misunderstood lodge
  01/06/26
The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said ...
Histrionic police squad ape
  01/06/26
Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago.&qu...
brilliant circlehead theater
  01/06/26
This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "co...
Chrome Spot
  01/06/26
this. it was a military offensive intended to establish cont...
chocolate mother
  01/06/26
Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acr...
Chrome Spot
  01/06/26
So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't ma...
Chrome Spot
  01/06/26
are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling...
outnumbered depressive
  01/06/26
the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so ...
misunderstood lodge
  01/06/26
If there was a breaking news report that “the us is in...
indecent electric ratface death wish
  01/06/26
His house was invaded (briefly)
citrine main people becky
  01/06/26
...
citrine main people becky
  01/06/26
I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.
Effete Federal National Security Agency
  01/06/26
I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise
citrine main people becky
  01/07/26
Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game https://x.com...
misunderstood lodge
  01/07/26
now this is just a straight up scam
excitant painfully honest twinkling uncleanness
  01/07/26
Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?
Chrome Spot
  01/07/26
Just made 60,000 dollars
Salmon codepig mediation
  01/07/26
?
citrine main people becky
  01/07/26
i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" h...
chocolate mother
  01/07/26
...
citrine main people becky
  01/10/26
...
UN peacekeeper
  03/05/26


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:52 PM
Author: misunderstood lodge

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767732697146

https://x.com/trader_53/status/2008545328824549664?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567156)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:35 PM
Author: Orchid cracking public bath idiot

get a life you fucking dork

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567289)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:42 PM
Author: misunderstood lodge

get off this bort you closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567303)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: Orchid cracking public bath idiot

you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you are a dick chopping tranny retard pedophile. the world would be better off if you'd just go away once and for all.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567306)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:03 PM
Author: misunderstood lodge

you are literally a closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567363)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 9:45 AM
Author: Orchid cracking public bath idiot

you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49568632)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:56 PM
Author: chocolate mother

i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes". they defined it pretty broadly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567168)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:29 PM
Author: Coiffed stead water buffalo

LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking black bag what kind of bullshit is this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567271)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: Chrome Spot

It's fraud they need to pay out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567336)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: Histrionic police squad ape

The market is about an "invasion." It's about taking and controlling territory. That hasn't happened. It still might by the end of the month.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567449)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:41 PM
Author: brilliant circlehead theater

The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of abducting its head of state was to establish control of Venezuela. The operation was successful

You are confusing the words "control" and "occupy"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567472)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: Histrionic police squad ape

Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) does the US control? The US doesn't control Venezuela via an invasion any more than the US uses its power to influence a lot of countries.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567477)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: Chrome Spot

Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the intent to deprive Venezuela of that territory. Even a peppercorn of time is enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567484)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: Histrionic police squad ape

The market is for an invasion. The definition requires establishing control of a portion of territory.

Could you point on a map to which portion of Venezuelan territory the US invaded with the intent to control? You're right that it could be a small portion.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567491)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: brilliant circlehead theater

https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/oe_theme_medium_no_crop/public/2019-02/venezuela_en.png?itok=aeBbLnHe

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567497)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: brilliant circlehead theater

The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls the country of Venezuela, as a statement of fact, as demonstrated by the fact that it can simply remove its nominal political "head of state" at will, whenever it wants, as it just did

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567492)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:33 PM
Author: excitant painfully honest twinkling uncleanness

seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt intend to control any area of Venezuela, they captured its president and are pressuring the current government to do their will.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567286)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:43 PM
Author: misunderstood lodge

(Peter Thiel)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567304)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: Swollen church

yes its not like orange man said we run it now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567305)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:50 PM
Author: fluffy field place of business

I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567316)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:57 PM
Author: Chrome Spot

Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this? Maduro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567341)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: misunderstood lodge

usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting” but they removed that language since it would make it harder to screw over their traders

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567356)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: Histrionic police squad ape



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567479)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:35 PM
Author: rusted heaven

cr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567713)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:45 AM
Author: avocado racy roommate stage



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49568504)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:45 PM
Author: cobalt sex offender national

IRL Topicality moment

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567307)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:54 PM
Author: Salmon codepig mediation



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567330)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: heady brindle bawdyhouse voyeur

companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhaustively draft out the terms of selling you toilet paper, and they still leave ambiguities. why would anyone ever expect that degens gambling on geopolitical upheavals described in a blurb with no transparency or accountability would be a good idea?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567334)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:59 PM
Author: Chrome Spot

It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate when it arrested him, and the estate is located in Venezuela. Even if the control was only fleeting, it damn sure wasn't unintentional

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567348)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:02 PM
Author: heady brindle bawdyhouse voyeur

(guy who no longer has $1,600)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567360)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:13 PM
Author: excitant painfully honest twinkling uncleanness



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567396)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 6:19 AM
Author: Beady-eyed kitchen filthpig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49568389)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: azure contagious party of the first part shrine

It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after the fact. It's a feature.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567517)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:00 PM
Author: brilliant circlehead theater



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567526)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:11 PM
Author: Chrome Spot

There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The terms are clear.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567542)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: brilliant circlehead theater

Obvious yes

But this is why you don't bet on stuff like this tbh. I wouldn't even put a substantial sum of money on an election on these platforms. You always run the risk of some Jewish bullshit like this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567354)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:33 PM
Author: Histrionic police squad ape

This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterargument that isn't just based on feelings?

The market is "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" And they define "invasion" as "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela."

Dropping some special ops in for a limited time to extract the president is far from an invasion--i.e., an "offensive intended to establish control over" over territory. If there were boots on the ground to take and hold territory, it would be another thing. But there are not and have not been.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567445)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: excitant painfully honest twinkling uncleanness

cr, not a close call imo

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567451)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:37 PM
Author: misunderstood lodge

Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so clear that they even had to address it in their statement screwing people over. There must’ve been a huge whale or polymarket insider on the other side of that trade

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567465)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: Histrionic police squad ape

The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said we're going to "lock Her up." Where are we on that?)

The market is for an invasion controlling Venezuelan territory. That hasn't happened.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567485)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: brilliant circlehead theater

Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567493)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: Chrome Spot

This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela." Trump doesn't have to actually run anything, he only has to commence a military offensive with that intent. Having actual control is sufficient but not NECESSARY to prove intent.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567498)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:54 PM
Author: chocolate mother

this. it was a military offensive intended to establish control over caracas generally and at the very least maduro's residence for however long it was necessary in order to capture him.

the issue here is "control" and the time period it takes to constitute it. polymarket thought they were describing something more permanent and substantial, but they didn't spell that out and i think it's hard to argue that landing a bunch of helicopters into maduro's front yard, killing his security guards, and forcibly removing him wasn't taking "control" of his house which is a "portion" of venezuela. "intent" is there the minute you give the order.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567509)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: Chrome Spot

Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acres of land in Venezuela for a period of some several minutes, and not by accident

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567514)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: Chrome Spot

So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't make DHS pay full price for hotel rooms?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567489)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:10 PM
Author: outnumbered depressive

are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling platform is being legalistic and dishonest? LOL.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567539)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:20 PM
Author: misunderstood lodge

the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so it doesn’t really make sense for polymarket to screw over their users. they’re just a bookie. unless a polymarket insider or whale with connections was on the other side of the trade and pulled some strings. either way what they’re doing is dishonest. at a minimum they should not have titled the market “invade” if sending the military into foreign sovereign territory and arresting its president doesn’t count.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567682)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:31 PM
Author: indecent electric ratface death wish

If there was a breaking news report that “the us is invading Venezuela” no one would be like “but that already happened”.

The common sense version says this wasn’t an invasion and nothing in their terms is enough to override that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567704)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:15 PM
Author: citrine main people becky

His house was invaded (briefly)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567813)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:11 PM
Author: citrine main people becky



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567795)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:17 PM
Author: Effete Federal National Security Agency

I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49567818)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 5:48 AM
Author: citrine main people becky

I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49568381)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 7:59 AM
Author: misunderstood lodge

Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game

https://x.com/dustingouker/status/2008748429024133125?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49568440)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:16 AM
Author: excitant painfully honest twinkling uncleanness

now this is just a straight up scam

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49568452)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:18 AM
Author: Chrome Spot

Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49568453)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:16 AM
Author: Salmon codepig mediation

Just made 60,000 dollars

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49568707)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:29 AM
Author: citrine main people becky

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49568727)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:30 AM
Author: chocolate mother

i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" here. the terms are so broad even a child could make a reasonable argument for "yes".

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49568730)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 10th, 2026 10:01 PM
Author: citrine main people becky



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49579920)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 5th, 2026 1:46 PM
Author: UN peacekeeper



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2]#49718047)