At what IQ level does this make sense? Seems like once the goat is revealed in one of the three doors, it would be 50/50 whether the car was in one of the two remaining doors or the other.

But apparently not- really smart bros say it makes sense to change your guess:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vRUxbzJZ9Y

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#49963875)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#49963876)

Many readers of Savant's column refused to believe switching is beneficial and rejected her explanation. After the problem appeared in Parade, approximately 10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with PhDs, wrote to the magazine, most of them calling Savant wrong.[4] Even when given explanations, simulations, and formal mathematical proofs, many people still did not accept that switching is the best strategy.[5] Paul Erdős, one of the most prolific mathematicians in history, remained unconvinced until he was shown a computer simulation demonstrating Savant's predicted result.

- end quote -

If this only makes sense at extreme IQ levels, it's one of the best tests for such extreme IQs that I've seen. I simply don't get it, even as explained in your Wiki link.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#49963894)

then he opens one door with a goat so now you are making a choice knowing it's 50/50 which is better than 1/3

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#49963906)

If you choose door 1 and switch you'll lose.

If you choose door 2, the host will open door 3, and switching will always win.

If you choose door 3, the host will open door 2, and switching will always win.

See how in 2 of the 3 possible scenarios switching is always the winning move?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#49966929)

Now let's say the game removes 998 doors all of which don't have the money behind them. You're down to either your initial guess of 62 or door 791. It's a binary choice but you KNOW that the money is behind one of the two doors.

Now would you bet that your initial guess out of 1000 possible answers was correct, or the other door which is the only door that hasn't yet been removed? By switching doors your odds skyrocket. You're betting that your initial guess was wrong. You had a 0.1% chance of being right on your first guess. But if you switch you're picking the only door that hasn't been taken off the board. The money is REALLY PROBABLY ALMOST CERTAINLY behind door 791. Unless you got balls to the wall lucky on your initial guess (you almost certainly didn't), the money is in the other door.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#49965398)

But the "correct" answer is apparently that you go from 33.3% to 66.6% by switching. Got an Obama-tier explanation for why it's 66.6% and not 50%?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#49966256)

You can also consider it this way: either door 1 2 or 3 has the goat. If you pick 1 and it's in 1, you lose by switching. That happens 1/3 of the time. But 2/3 of the time that you pick 1 you'll be wrong because it'll be in either 2 or 3. In 100% of those cases, the host will eliminate all of the empty doors for you and leave a "goat" door 100% of the time. If it's in 2, he'll open door 3 100% of the time. If it's in 3, he'll open door 2 100% of the time. So the 2/3 of the time that you've picked an empty door, he'll open the only remaining empty door 100% of the time and leave a guaranteed goat in the unopened door 100% of the time.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#49966860)

On the 2nd pick "switch" u get a 1/2

Ur insane if u dont change it to a 50/50 by changing doors, ur basically assuming u won a 1/3 off the bat (insane)

just switch

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#49964530)

its a 50/50 on the 2nd go lol at libs

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#49964669)

imagine if there was one goat in 100 doors and the tv host opened 98 empty ones

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#49964692)

The way the Monty Hall problem is explained to people that can't understand it is if there were a 100 doors and the host closed 98, switching becomes obvious because you know you only had a 1% chance of picking correctly initially. But if that was still only 50/50 it makes no sense why 100 doors is such an obvious switch. With 100 doors you intuitively understand that switching is a far greater chance that switching is superior to staying (99%). The same is true with 3 doors.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#49964715)

How low is your iq if you still dont understand?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#49964824)

*It's the grand prize*

"Oh hmmm, guess you lost. Well that was a bit anticlimactic."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#49966840)