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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 12/10/15 |
| pink supple brunch legal warrant | 12/12/15 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 01/02/17 |
| aqua goal in life | 01/06/16 |
| alcoholic piazza | 01/06/16 |
| alcoholic piazza | 06/05/16 |
| Cerise cracking station genital piercing | 03/26/16 |
| Orchid Fiercely-loyal Market Cuck | 01/02/17 |
| Unhinged henna community account | 10/25/18 |
| violet shivering orchestra pit tattoo | 12/10/15 |
| Spruce Insane Step-uncle's House Trump Supporter | 12/10/15 |
| fragrant sound barrier laser beams | 12/10/15 |
| Diverse Sweet Tailpipe Codepig | 12/10/15 |
| Sapphire public bath rigor | 12/15/15 |
| chestnut azn lay | 12/10/15 |
| razzmatazz jet-lagged center sex offender | 12/10/15 |
| bearded roommate location | 12/10/15 |
| charismatic crackhouse affirmative action | 12/11/15 |
| disgusting mahogany foreskin masturbator | 12/12/15 |
| domesticated autistic antidepressant drug mood | 12/16/15 |
| Histrionic Flushed Therapy Gaping | 01/04/16 |
| fighting beady-eyed turdskin karate | 11/09/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 12/11/15 |
| Irradiated kink-friendly set water buffalo | 12/11/15 |
| charcoal bateful hominid | 12/11/15 |
| charismatic crackhouse affirmative action | 12/11/15 |
| laughsome round eye stage | 12/12/15 |
| arousing maroon gas station sneaky criminal | 01/25/16 |
| Sable Deer Antler Stain | 11/10/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 12/12/15 |
| Exciting pervert | 12/12/15 |
| marvelous carmine rehab doctorate | 12/12/15 |
| Judgmental state really tough guy | 12/12/15 |
| Elite pocket flask | 12/15/15 |
| Galvanic pit national security agency | 12/21/15 |
| Burgundy idiotic lodge voyeur | 12/12/15 |
| lilac talented degenerate | 12/12/15 |
| crystalline legend stock car | 12/12/15 |
| Comical corner weed whacker | 12/12/15 |
| Sickened Heady Famous Landscape Painting | 12/12/15 |
| Turquoise becky | 12/12/15 |
| razzmatazz jet-lagged center sex offender | 12/15/15 |
| razzmatazz jet-lagged center sex offender | 12/16/15 |
| Ocher violent bbw university | 12/15/15 |
| Maniacal prole whorehouse | 12/15/15 |
| bonkers twinkling uncleanness | 12/15/15 |
| doobsian french chef hell | 12/15/15 |
| Floppy immigrant | 12/15/15 |
| Onyx narrow-minded dingle berry | 12/15/15 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 12/15/15 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 12/15/15 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 12/15/15 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 12/15/15 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 12/15/15 |
| Vigorous forum | 01/05/16 |
| arousing maroon gas station sneaky criminal | 01/25/16 |
| Lascivious clear ladyboy area | 12/17/16 |
| razzle-dazzle vermilion parlour | 05/18/16 |
| Thriller Wagecucks Philosopher-king | 08/12/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 11/09/16 |
| slate wild stage | 11/09/16 |
| Boyish crotch | 11/09/16 |
| aphrodisiac ceo | 10/22/20 |
| Concupiscible Bistre Address Psychic | 12/15/15 |
| Dashing abnormal field | 12/16/15 |
| stirring tanning salon | 12/16/15 |
| talking passionate box office | 12/16/15 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 12/16/15 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 12/17/15 |
| bisexual parlor | 12/18/15 |
| aqua goal in life | 01/06/16 |
| dull library | 12/18/15 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 12/21/15 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 12/21/15 |
| Galvanic pit national security agency | 12/21/15 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 12/30/15 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 12/30/15 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 01/04/16 |
| Histrionic Flushed Therapy Gaping | 01/04/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 01/05/16 |
| arousing maroon gas station sneaky criminal | 01/25/16 |
| bisexual parlor | 01/05/16 |
| Know-it-all buff people who are hurt | 01/05/16 |
| Glittery school lettuce | 01/05/16 |
| stimulating digit ratio | 01/05/16 |
| puce dopamine | 01/05/16 |
| stimulating digit ratio | 01/05/16 |
| aqua goal in life | 01/06/16 |
| stimulating digit ratio | 01/06/16 |
| puce dopamine | 01/05/16 |
| Thriller Wagecucks Philosopher-king | 01/06/16 |
| Galvanic pit national security agency | 01/07/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 01/08/16 |
| Mischievous native keepsake machete | 01/08/16 |
| Galvanic pit national security agency | 01/08/16 |
| bisexual parlor | 01/09/16 |
| Galvanic pit national security agency | 01/10/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 01/18/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 01/19/16 |
| bisexual parlor | 01/21/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 01/25/16 |
| cerebral haunted graveyard party of the first part | 01/25/16 |
| arousing maroon gas station sneaky criminal | 01/25/16 |
| cerebral haunted graveyard party of the first part | 02/09/16 |
| Mischievous native keepsake machete | 09/06/16 |
| aqua goal in life | 11/05/18 |
| Lime theater internal respiration | 01/29/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 02/01/16 |
| emerald church building | 02/01/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 02/01/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 02/07/16 |
| Know-it-all buff people who are hurt | 02/09/16 |
| Primrose duck-like menage | 02/09/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 02/20/16 |
| Poppy Hairless Jewess National | 02/20/16 |
| razzle-dazzle vermilion parlour | 02/24/16 |
| soul-stirring heaven telephone | 02/24/16 |
| Flatulent sanctuary gaming laptop | 02/27/16 |
| Ocher violent bbw university | 03/09/16 |
| olive excitant hall | 03/15/16 |
| fragrant sound barrier laser beams | 03/15/16 |
| Maniacal prole whorehouse | 03/16/16 |
| pungent theater stage | 02/24/16 |
| Curious Pearly Circlehead Office | 02/24/16 |
| Maniacal prole whorehouse | 07/21/16 |
| Bull headed locale gay wizard | 02/24/16 |
| fragrant sound barrier laser beams | 02/27/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 03/02/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 03/04/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 03/09/16 |
| Know-it-all buff people who are hurt | 03/09/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 03/15/16 |
| razzle-dazzle vermilion parlour | 03/15/16 |
| aquamarine titillating gunner liquid oxygen | 03/15/16 |
| Frisky Useless Background Story Chapel | 03/15/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 03/16/16 |
| razzmatazz jet-lagged center sex offender | 03/16/16 |
| slate wild stage | 03/23/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 03/23/16 |
| crystalline legend stock car | 03/26/16 |
| Nighttime Chartreuse Halford | 03/26/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 03/26/16 |
| Vigorous forum | 03/28/16 |
| slate wild stage | 03/28/16 |
| Spruce Insane Step-uncle's House Trump Supporter | 03/28/16 |
| Thriller Wagecucks Philosopher-king | 08/12/16 |
| aqua goal in life | 11/05/18 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 03/28/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 03/29/16 |
| Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge | 03/29/16 |
| Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge | 03/29/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 03/29/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 03/29/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 04/01/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 04/04/16 |
| Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge | 04/15/16 |
| Exhilarant cumskin | 04/15/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 04/19/16 |
| Mewling cyan school cafeteria fat ankles | 04/20/16 |
| Electric Dilemma | 04/20/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 04/24/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 04/25/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 04/26/16 |
| Stubborn Copper Incel Boistinker | 04/26/16 |
| mustard bawdyhouse corn cake | 04/30/16 |
| Razzle maize volcanic crater stag film | 05/01/16 |
| Razzle maize volcanic crater stag film | 11/07/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 05/02/16 |
| slate wild stage | 05/02/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 05/03/16 |
| Nudist space faggotry | 05/03/16 |
| sepia vivacious idiot windowlicker | 05/03/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 05/04/16 |
| Mischievous native keepsake machete | 05/04/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 05/05/16 |
| Comical corner weed whacker | 05/05/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 05/05/16 |
| Curious Pearly Circlehead Office | 05/05/16 |
| Exciting pervert | 05/18/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 05/18/16 |
| razzle-dazzle vermilion parlour | 05/18/16 |
| Exciting pervert | 05/18/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 05/29/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 06/20/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 06/29/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 07/14/16 |
| wonderful ruby associate resort | 07/15/16 |
| Thriller Wagecucks Philosopher-king | 07/15/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 07/17/16 |
| Mischievous native keepsake machete | 07/17/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 07/21/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 07/22/16 |
| Indigo Home Dog Poop | 07/22/16 |
| provocative bronze church | 07/23/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 07/24/16 |
| Translucent Ticket Booth | 07/25/16 |
| Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge | 07/25/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 07/27/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 08/05/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 08/09/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 08/12/16 |
| Mischievous native keepsake machete | 08/12/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 08/12/16 |
| twisted range regret | 08/12/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 08/30/16 |
| Mischievous native keepsake machete | 08/30/16 |
| Mischievous native keepsake machete | 09/06/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 09/13/16 |
| Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge | 09/14/16 |
| Burgundy idiotic lodge voyeur | 09/14/16 |
| Gay Big-titted Milk | 09/15/16 |
| Ebony demanding den pozpig | 09/15/16 |
| alcoholic piazza | 09/15/16 |
| 180 puppy | 09/15/16 |
| grizzly spot coffee pot | 09/15/16 |
| Filthy striped hyena | 09/19/16 |
| Filthy striped hyena | 09/19/16 |
| Mischievous native keepsake machete | 09/27/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 09/24/16 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 09/27/16 |
| Mischievous native keepsake machete | 09/27/16 |
| razzmatazz jet-lagged center sex offender | 09/27/16 |
| Bespoke Federal Meetinghouse | 10/08/16 |
| wine aromatic travel guidebook quadroon | 07/29/24 |
| Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge | 09/28/16 |
| Burgundy idiotic lodge voyeur | 09/28/16 |
| Mischievous native keepsake machete | 09/28/16 |
| Electric Dilemma | 09/28/16 |
| Exhilarant cumskin | 09/28/16 |
| light impertinent trailer park macaca | 10/08/16 |
| Mischievous native keepsake machete | 10/09/16 |
| Well-lubricated factory reset button | 10/09/16 |
| Mischievous native keepsake machete | 10/09/16 |
| Mildly autistic reading party headpube | 10/09/16 |
| Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge | 10/10/16 |
| Translucent Ticket Booth | 10/30/16 |
| Thriller Wagecucks Philosopher-king | 11/01/16 |
| 180 puppy | 11/01/16 |
| Big Dead Cruise Ship Boiling Water | 11/02/16 |
| doobsian french chef hell | 11/02/16 |
| Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge | 11/07/16 |
| Brass swashbuckling sandwich scourge upon the earth | 11/08/16 |
| Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge | 11/08/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 11/08/16 |
| Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge | 11/08/16 |
| Amber Hairraiser Point New Version | 11/08/16 |
| Free-loading contagious jap chad | 11/08/16 |
| emerald church building | 11/08/16 |
| Filthy striped hyena | 11/08/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 11/08/16 |
| flesh fantasy-prone nursing home | 11/09/16 |
| Gay Big-titted Milk | 11/09/16 |
| Deranged motley stead selfie | 11/09/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 11/09/16 |
| 180 puppy | 11/09/16 |
| flesh fantasy-prone nursing home | 11/09/16 |
| Translucent Ticket Booth | 11/09/16 |
| Comical corner weed whacker | 11/09/16 |
| Costumed Appetizing Brethren | 12/03/16 |
| Sable Deer Antler Stain | 12/07/16 |
| Lascivious clear ladyboy area | 12/17/16 |
| hateful base half-breed | 10/11/24 |
| Coiffed dysfunction | 11/09/16 |
| Gold trip pisswyrm | 11/09/16 |
| metal temple mexican | 11/09/16 |
| Odious kitty cat kitchen | 11/09/16 |
| Costumed Appetizing Brethren | 11/09/16 |
| Thriller Wagecucks Philosopher-king | 11/09/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 11/09/16 |
| Exciting pervert | 11/09/16 |
| Mischievous native keepsake machete | 11/09/16 |
| tan house mother | 11/09/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 11/09/16 |
| topaz property | 11/09/16 |
| Beta Coldplay Fan Juggernaut | 11/09/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 11/09/16 |
| Diverse Sweet Tailpipe Codepig | 11/09/16 |
| dull library | 11/10/16 |
| cerebral haunted graveyard party of the first part | 11/10/16 |
| alcoholic piazza | 11/10/16 |
| slippery crusty principal's office | 11/10/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 11/10/16 |
| Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge | 11/10/16 |
| Poppy Hairless Jewess National | 11/10/16 |
| Filthy striped hyena | 11/14/16 |
| racy lemon patrolman old irish cottage | 11/14/16 |
| startled goyim | 12/04/16 |
| Lascivious clear ladyboy area | 12/17/16 |
| hateful base half-breed | 10/11/24 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 11/25/16 |
| Adventurous Dragon | 12/03/16 |
| Mildly autistic reading party headpube | 12/04/16 |
| multi-colored outnumbered site | 12/07/16 |
| alcoholic piazza | 12/07/16 |
| Adventurous Dragon | 12/07/16 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 01/02/17 |
| Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease | 01/02/17 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 01/02/17 |
| Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease | 01/02/17 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 03/03/20 |
| alcoholic piazza | 01/02/17 |
| slate wild stage | 01/16/17 |
| Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease | 01/20/17 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 01/20/17 |
| Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease | 01/23/17 |
| light impertinent trailer park macaca | 01/23/17 |
| Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease | 01/23/17 |
| spectacular nubile shrine | 01/23/17 |
| light impertinent trailer park macaca | 01/23/17 |
| Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease | 01/23/17 |
| Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease | 01/25/17 |
| Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease | 01/26/17 |
| Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease | 02/06/17 |
| Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease | 02/13/17 |
| Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease | 02/27/17 |
| Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease | 05/03/17 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 05/03/17 |
| Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease | 09/21/17 |
| fragrant sound barrier laser beams | 01/23/17 |
| 180 puppy | 02/27/17 |
| aqua goal in life | 03/22/17 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 04/17/17 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 05/08/17 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 06/20/17 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 08/10/17 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 10/15/17 |
| slate wild stage | 10/15/17 |
| hot chrome generalized bond | 10/15/17 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 11/06/17 |
| Vibrant Useless Brakes | 11/06/17 |
| painfully honest casino idea he suggested | 11/08/17 |
| soggy plaza | 11/08/17 |
| Adulterous Mental Disorder Clown | 11/13/17 |
| slate wild stage | 12/18/17 |
| Mischievous native keepsake machete | 12/18/17 |
| slate wild stage | 12/18/17 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 01/30/18 |
| alcoholic piazza | 06/01/18 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 07/18/18 |
| slate wild stage | 07/19/18 |
| grizzly spot coffee pot | 09/20/18 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 09/25/18 |
| Spruce Insane Step-uncle's House Trump Supporter | 10/06/18 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 10/06/18 |
| alcoholic piazza | 10/25/18 |
| Ebony demanding den pozpig | 10/25/18 |
| arousing maroon gas station sneaky criminal | 11/05/18 |
| alcoholic piazza | 11/05/18 |
| aqua goal in life | 11/05/18 |
| alcoholic piazza | 11/05/18 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 01/08/19 |
| theatre | 02/23/19 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 03/13/19 |
| arousing maroon gas station sneaky criminal | 06/24/19 |
| shaky blood rage messiness | 06/24/19 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 11/18/19 |
| 180 puppy | 02/12/20 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 02/12/20 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 03/24/20 |
| blathering hospital jew | 03/24/20 |
| wonderful ruby associate resort | 04/04/20 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 04/26/20 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 05/13/20 |
| wonderful ruby associate resort | 06/05/20 |
| internet-worthy partner | 06/05/20 |
| wonderful ruby associate resort | 09/09/20 |
| 180 puppy | 09/09/20 |
| violet shivering orchestra pit tattoo | 09/09/20 |
| Gaped Bossy Black Woman | 09/12/20 |
| orange ape | 09/24/20 |
| shaky blood rage messiness | 10/09/20 |
| slate wild stage | 10/10/20 |
| Splenetic garrison private investor | 10/22/20 |
| Costumed Appetizing Brethren | 10/22/20 |
| aphrodisiac ceo | 10/22/20 |
| aphrodisiac ceo | 10/22/20 |
| Misunderstood House-broken Institution Candlestick Maker | 03/23/22 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 10/27/20 |
| aqua goal in life | 10/27/20 |
| shaky blood rage messiness | 10/30/20 |
| slate wild stage | 11/03/20 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 03/22/22 |
| hyperventilating business firm | 03/23/22 |
| sick cheese-eating wrinkle | 03/23/22 |
| hairy legs locus | 03/23/22 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 07/25/22 |
| violet shivering orchestra pit tattoo | 07/25/22 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 10/23/22 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 11/16/22 |
| Tantric trust fund hissy fit | 04/25/23 |
| Exciting pervert | 04/25/23 |
| orange ape | 04/29/23 |
| wine aromatic travel guidebook quadroon | 05/28/23 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 02/22/24 |
| orange ape | 02/23/24 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 05/23/24 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 08/26/24 |
| orange ape | 09/13/24 |
| violet shivering orchestra pit tattoo | 09/13/24 |
| orange ape | 10/18/24 |
| hateful base half-breed | 10/11/24 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 11/06/24 |
| Comical corner weed whacker | 03/04/25 |
| Comical corner weed whacker | 03/04/25 |
| grizzly spot coffee pot | 03/04/25 |
| hateful base half-breed | 03/04/25 |
| organic girlfriend abode | 03/04/25 |
| Chest-beating naked potus | 03/05/25 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 03/07/25 |
| Up-to-no-good High-end Queen Of The Night | 03/07/25 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 03/08/25 |
| Hideous disrespectful faggot firefighter | 03/08/25 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 03/08/25 |
| fragrant sound barrier laser beams | 02/18/26 |
| Lavender yarmulke senate | 05/15/26 |
| honey-headed french electric furnace | 05/17/26 |
| coalition of rabbis | 08/11/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: pink supple brunch legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: aqua goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: alcoholic piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29532846) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: bearded roommate location Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: disgusting mahogany foreskin masturbator Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: domesticated autistic antidepressant drug mood Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Histrionic Flushed Therapy Gaping Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
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March 21
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March 22
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: bonkers twinkling uncleanness I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Floppy immigrant February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Onyx narrow-minded dingle berry You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29384254) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Boyish crotch Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: aqua goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: dull library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: bisexual parlor From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: stimulating digit ratio I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: stimulating digit ratio Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: puce dopamine No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Thriller Wagecucks Philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Galvanic pit national security agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Mischievous native keepsake machete 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Galvanic pit national security agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: bisexual parlor http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Galvanic pit national security agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: bisexual parlor looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#29677719) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Thriller Wagecucks Philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: aqua goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Exhilarant cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: Mewling cyan school cafeteria fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30310760) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: Electric Dilemma I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30353572) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: Stubborn Copper Incel Boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30353587) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: mustard bawdyhouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Razzle maize volcanic crater stag film Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Razzle maize volcanic crater stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: slate wild stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Nudist space faggotry holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: sepia vivacious idiot windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Mischievous native keepsake machete 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: Comical corner weed whacker Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Curious Pearly Circlehead Office Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Exciting pervert This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: razzle-dazzle vermilion parlour In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Exciting pervert cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Thriller Wagecucks Philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30956384) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#30999290) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: provocative bronze church Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Translucent Ticket Booth Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Mischievous native keepsake machete holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: twisted range regret LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Mischievous native keepsake machete 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Mischievous native keepsake machete lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Burgundy idiotic lodge voyeur Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Gay Big-titted Milk September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Ebony demanding den pozpig September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: alcoholic piazza god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: 180 puppy XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: grizzly spot coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Filthy striped hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Filthy striped hyena The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Mischievous native keepsake machete let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Mischievous native keepsake machete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: razzmatazz jet-lagged center sex offender This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Bespoke Federal Meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: wine aromatic travel guidebook quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Burgundy idiotic lodge voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Mischievous native keepsake machete 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Electric Dilemma This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Exhilarant cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: light impertinent trailer park macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Mischievous native keepsake machete hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Well-lubricated factory reset button Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Mischievous native keepsake machete doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Mildly autistic reading party headpube half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Translucent Ticket Booth close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Thriller Wagecucks Philosopher-king Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: 180 puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Big Dead Cruise Ship Boiling Water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: doobsian french chef hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Brass swashbuckling sandwich scourge upon the earth You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Amber Hairraiser Point New Version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Free-loading contagious jap chad Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: emerald church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Filthy striped hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: flesh fantasy-prone nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Gay Big-titted Milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Deranged motley stead selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: 180 puppy GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: flesh fantasy-prone nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Translucent Ticket Booth it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31848755) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Costumed Appetizing Brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Sable Deer Antler Stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32076291) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: hateful base half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Gold trip pisswyrm Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Odious kitty cat kitchen 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Costumed Appetizing Brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Thriller Wagecucks Philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Exciting pervert this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Mischievous native keepsake machete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: tan house mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: topaz property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Beta Coldplay Fan Juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Diverse Sweet Tailpipe Codepig you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: dull library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: cerebral haunted graveyard party of the first part Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: alcoholic piazza bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: slippery crusty principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Submissive Sinister Alpha Indian Lodge ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Poppy Hairless Jewess National (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Filthy striped hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: racy lemon patrolman old irish cottage They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: startled goyim Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Lascivious clear ladyboy area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: hateful base half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Adventurous Dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Mildly autistic reading party headpube GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: multi-colored outnumbered site https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: alcoholic piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Adventurous Dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: alcoholic piazza truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: slate wild stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: light impertinent trailer park macaca TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: spectacular nubile shrine I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: light impertinent trailer park macaca it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Salmon Mind-boggling Mad Cow Disease https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: fragrant sound barrier laser beams this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: 180 puppy One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: aqua goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: slate wild stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: hot chrome generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Vibrant Useless Brakes credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: painfully honest casino idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: soggy plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Adulterous Mental Disorder Clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: slate wild stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Mischievous native keepsake machete Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: slate wild stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: alcoholic piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: slate wild stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: grizzly spot coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Spruce Insane Step-uncle's House Trump Supporter It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: alcoholic piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Ebony demanding den pozpig Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: arousing maroon gas station sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: alcoholic piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: aqua goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: alcoholic piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: arousing maroon gas station sneaky criminal There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: shaky blood rage messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: 180 puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: blathering hospital jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: wonderful ruby associate resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: wonderful ruby associate resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: internet-worthy partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: wonderful ruby associate resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: 180 puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: violet shivering orchestra pit tattoo Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Gaped Bossy Black Woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: orange ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: shaky blood rage messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: slate wild stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Splenetic garrison private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Costumed Appetizing Brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: aphrodisiac ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: aphrodisiac ceo https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Misunderstood House-broken Institution Candlestick Maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: aqua goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: shaky blood rage messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: slate wild stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: hyperventilating business firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: sick cheese-eating wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: hairy legs locus 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: violet shivering orchestra pit tattoo A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Tantric trust fund hissy fit https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Exciting pervert why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: orange ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: wine aromatic travel guidebook quadroon FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: orange ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: orange ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: violet shivering orchestra pit tattoo One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: orange ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: hateful base half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Comical corner weed whacker 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Comical corner weed whacker https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: grizzly spot coffee pot Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: hateful base half-breed The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: organic girlfriend abode He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Chest-beating naked potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Up-to-no-good High-end Queen Of The Night 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Hideous disrespectful faggot firefighter Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: fragrant sound barrier laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: Lavender yarmulke senate ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: honey-headed french electric furnace i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
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Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: coalition of rabbis Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2ﾃ｢竄ï½���„1¤77PHPSESSID=3d8e678aec504db068978830e992758d#50060136) |