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Obamacare upheld is 25% on in trade ... Good bet?
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Date: June 26th, 2012 1:29 PM Author: chest-beating address Odds of mandate being upheld have to be greater than 25%, I think. Good bet? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20961607) |
Date: June 26th, 2012 1:30 PM Author: Marvelous dog poop Better make sure you know the distinction between the mandate being upheld and "ObamaCare" generally being upheld, brother.
Chance of the former is close to 0. Chance of the latter (in part) is close to 100. |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 1:32 PM Author: chest-beating address No way that the mandate being upheld is close to 0 probability. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20961630) |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 1:34 PM Author: Marvelous dog poop Have you been paying attention at all? Did you hear the very first day of oral argument?
Clement shit all over Virrilli to the point where Ginsburg had to literally answer questions FOR him. Kennedy and Roberts, the only votes that are even remotely in question either way, came out strongly and immediately in opposition to the mandate in their tone.
Kennedy literally asked "isn't this changing the fundamental nature of the relationship of the federal government to the people?"
lol @ u |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 1:41 PM Author: chest-beating address I listened to every day of oral arg and am familiar with all the commentary. I still think Kennedy's turnaround toward the end of oral arg indicates some willingness to uphold the mandate. Obviously he came out strong early ("aren't you creating commerce in order to regulate, etc") in order to show he was testing the position.
Fwiw, two of my law profs (one who clerked for Kennedy and one who clerked for Scalia) both agreed after oral args that the mandate would still almost definitely be upheld, likely 6-3 or 7-2.
Odds are definitely way better than 0 and I think way better than 25. |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 4:08 PM Author: concupiscible filthpig lulz. you're staggeringly stupid. oral arguments are a terrible predictor of decisions.
have you been to law school? do you wear velcro shoes? |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 11:38 AM Author: Charismatic Chartreuse Principal's Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20975431) |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 1:30 PM Author: disturbing comical native international law enforcement agency not flame, i thought most people expected it to be upheld
guess im not a mfe :( |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 2:36 PM Author: titillating therapy range if by people you mean leftist conlaw academics, and by expected you mean asserted, and by asserted you mean only before oral arguments
a majority of the public both wants obamacare to be struck down or repealed and thinks it is unconstitutional |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 5:13 PM Author: Disgusting Wine Windowlicker Rehab It's clearly not unconstitutional, Thursday's expected outcome notwithstanding.
I think it's plainly constitutional under the tax power, despite the DOJ's ready abdication of this position. If taxing someone more or less depending on their purchase of some perceived socially-beneficial good is unconstitutional, then a whole host of completely uncontroversial tax deductions and credits are also unconstitutional.
It's also clear that the commerce power applies here. While people are strongly wary of the government requiring a purchase, we are quite comfortable with the government requiring a sale (Hearts of Atlanta), prohibiting a purchase (Raich), or prohibiting a sale (Wickard) under the commerce power. And textually, the Commerce Clause permits REGULATION (making no distinction between prohibitions and requirements) of COMMERCE (making no distinction between purchases and sales). The extreme caution and nervousness of the American public, while perhaps rightly placed, is a policy consideration, not a constitutional one. |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 5:16 PM Author: Razzle Duck-like Stage Boltzmann "It's clearly not unconstitutional, Thursday's expected outcome notwithstanding."
Supreme Court decides what's constitutional.
HTH |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 5:19 PM Author: Disgusting Wine Windowlicker Rehab Are you a 0L? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20963060) |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 1:34 PM Author: soul-stirring patrolman not a good bet. do you know how intrade works? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20961642) |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 1:42 PM Author: chest-beating address Explain. Is this nota straiightforward 3:1 bet? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20961707) |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 1:34 PM Author: low-t prole do you actually have money in your intrade? I was going to do it but cant charge credit card and I don't feel like waiting around for a wire transfer. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20961646) |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 1:43 PM Author: Aphrodisiac area half-breed you are aware of the 5 tea bagging shitbag idealogues on the court no? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20961719) |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 2:32 PM Author: titillating therapy range I'd peg it at 70/30 for being struck down, based on my close following of the case and my vast expertise in conlaw. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20962034) |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 2:33 PM Author: bearded ratface if it's not upheld, can we just kill off boomers? they are the tea party after all. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20962038) |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 3:31 PM Author: Marvelous dog poop you fucking moron, it's the boomers that the law is designed to benefit.
subsidization of sickly shitboomers via forced premiums from young, healthy millenials
htfh |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 10:38 AM Author: big cream office rigor So did you triple your money? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20974817) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 10:42 AM Author: chest-beating address Yup. Quadrupled, actually. No thanks to the retarded reptile above telling mr there was a 0% chance the mandate would be upheld. lol reptiles, just lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20974855) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 10:43 AM Author: low-t prole I hate you man. I really was about to do the same but couldn't fund with my US credit card. FUCK. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20974866) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 10:45 AM Author: big cream office rigor how much did you bet? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20974889) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 10:47 AM Author: chest-beating address Put in $300, came out with $1200. Wish I could've bet more but I'm a poor right now (student). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20974909) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 10:59 AM Author: Cowardly Bateful School Roast Beef what about fees? I thought they took a lot out (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20975050) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 11:09 AM Author: jet-lagged rough-skinned forum community account fees are very small.
Intrade charges a $4.99 monthly fee. If you do not have any funds in your account the fee is not charged. The fee is debited from your account balance on the first day of each month. If, for example, you have opened your account on January 10th, you will not be charged your first monthly fee until February 1st. This fee encourages and provides for an unlimited number of predictions. There are no transaction fees or commission charges other than the monthly fee of US$4.99.
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Date: June 28th, 2012 10:48 AM Author: Cowardly Bateful School Roast Beef how did you put money on your account? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20974923) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 10:53 AM Author: titillating therapy range Tcq, if he doesn't post a cogent answer to this in 60 seconds he's flame. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20974997) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 10:56 AM Author: jet-lagged rough-skinned forum community account different pumo, but wiring money there takes less then 24 hours. they're very quick. been using intrade to pwn retards since 2007. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20975029) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 10:58 AM Author: titillating therapy range You can store it in an account there after wiring or do you have to wire each time? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20975040) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 11:08 AM Author: jet-lagged rough-skinned forum community account you can store it in an account there indefinitely. I've had cash there since 2007. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20975142) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 10:58 AM Author: Cowardly Bateful School Roast Beef How do you "wire money"? Do you do it fron your bank account? I thought they did not accept US bank accounts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20975046) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 11:09 AM Author: jet-lagged rough-skinned forum community account you wire money to their bank, care of your account number. they then deposit it into your intrade account. its painless, though slightly more annoying then a CC transfer. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20975157) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 10:56 AM Author: chest-beating address I've had money in my Intrade account for a long time. Trade on other stuff there. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20975024) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 10:58 AM Author: passionate drunken telephone I made some paper on this too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20975045) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 11:00 AM Author: fragrant unholy marketing idea set how credited is intrade? is it just dumbs betting on politics and sports? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20975062) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 11:11 AM Author: jet-lagged rough-skinned forum community account normally its pretty solid. but this particular issue attracted dumb as fuck wingnuts who bid the price way too high so smart legal scholar xoxo bros like me and OP could make some cash (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20975165) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 11:00 AM Author: canary startled theatre fortuitous meteor Nothing compared to betting 500 on Obama in early 2007 like I did when he was at like 8%. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20975066) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 11:02 AM Author: fragrant unholy marketing idea set nice. what did you take home? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20975086) |
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Date: June 28th, 2012 11:10 AM Author: jet-lagged rough-skinned forum community account fuck man, betting on obama when he was 45% in the aftermath of the palin announcement was almost as good. I made thousands. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1979830&forum_id=2#20975161) |