1. Since the last 1990’s, Wisconsin had led the country in voter turnout, generally about 70%. Experts claim this is due to the state’s high education, voter registration rates (including same-day registration), and ease of polling.

2. Wisconsin elections are unique for being the most decentralized in the country. They are conducted at the municipal level, across 1,800 wards, rather than the county level. In some areas they may be hand counted, in other areas they may be submitted electronically, etc. No other state counts ballots like Wisconsin. (https://www.ncsl.org/blog/2014/06/24/wisconsin-elections-decentralized-down-to-the-village-level.aspx)

3. Academics hail Wisconsin’s decentralized elections are a model for other states. Each municipality can conduct elections how they choose, whether by paper ballot, Scantron, touchscreen, etc. No other state counts ballots like Wisconsin.

4. Experts agree that decentralized voting improves election security, and this was used as the primary defense to allegations made after the 2016 General Election.

5. Experts noted only one issue with Wisconsin elections: auditing results. With no state guidelines, municipalities are free to validate their results by any method of their choice, if at all. And any attempts to audit results statewide are made insurmountably complex, due to the varying ways in which people vote. (https://www.wisconsinwatch.org/2020/10/wisconsin-election-secure-inaccurate-counts-hard-to-catch/)

6. In 2018, The Center for American Progress found the state’s audit procedure to be “unsatisfactory.” (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-TIRf1KAw-lyuCmgQlsppjVdwS_Gqyh6/view)

2020 Election:

1. Despite their high registration levels, and ability to “same-day register” voters on election day, Wisconsin has been the target of a massive “Get-out-the-Vote” (GOTV) operation leading up to the 2020 General Election.

2. In Wisconsin you can register to vote in-person, by mail, or online. There is no identification or residency requirement; you can establish “Proof of Residence” with a cell phone bill.

3. The GOTV efforts – with the help of celebrities, sports teams, and politicians -- were initially successful and some areas saw upwards of 10% growth in their voter rolls in early 2020. For comparison, these voter rolls increased by 4.5% in two the months leading up to the 2016 General Election.

4. Despite the ongoing GOTV campaign, turnout in the 2020 Democratic Primary was relatively low -- as little as 7% in some wards.

5. Growth in new voter registration slowed to a crawl by the end of May 2020. The reason was simple: there was no one left to register. It was estimated that 90% of the eligible population was registered to vote in some areas.

6. The slow pace continued over the summer, despite increases in political spending and increasingly aggressive registration tactics.

7. Beginning in September 2020, however, these areas again saw unprecedented growth in their voter rolls. In Milwaukee County alone, voter rolls would grow an additional 6% before the election.

Turnout:

1. St. Croix County is reports 96% voter turnout in the 2020 General Election. If true, these numbers indicate St. Croix County has the fourth highest total-voter turnout (80%) in the world. For comparison, the United States averages 55% total-voter turnout.

a. 2020: 96% Turnout; Biden 41 – Trump 56

b. 2016: 82% turnout; Clinton 36 – Trump 55

2. Outagamie County is reporting 93% voter turnout.

3. Dane County is reporting 88% voter turnout. Six wards in Madison report turnout over 90%. Trump received just 3% of those 17,000 votes.

a. 2020: 88% turnout; Biden 76 – Trump 22

b. 2016: 81% turnout; Clinton 70 – Trump 23

4. Milwaukee County, despite nearly 1 in 10 (nearly 18,000) mail-in ballots going unreturned, achieved their highest turnout rates ever - 82%. In some wards, turnout improved eight-fold over the April Primary, and doubled the 2016 turnout.

5. Rock County

a) 2020: 89% turnout; Biden 54 - Trump 42

b) 2016: 84% turnout; Clinton 51 – Trump 41

Mail-in Ballots:

1. Earlier this year, the Washington Post conducted an analysis of mail-in voter fraud based on national data from the 2016 and 2018 Elections. They concluded that fraud was exceedingly rare and only accounted for 0.0025% ballots cast. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/minuscule-number-of-potentially-fraudulent-ballots-in-states-with-universal-mail-voting-undercuts-trump-claims-about-election-risks/2020/06/08/1e78aa26-a5c5-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html)

2. During the 2020 Democratic primary, 23,000, 3%, of mail-in ballots returned were thrown out because of incomplete information or other inaccuracies. (https://www.revealnews.org/article/a-warning-from-wisconsin/).

3. There have been credible stories of missing ballots, unauthorized transport, destroyed ballots. Under the most conservative estimates, these stories account for thousands of ballots. (https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04/08/wisconsin-election-3-tubs-ballots-found-mail-processing-center/2971078001/)

Analysis

1. Pollsters projected Biden to win Wisconsin by over 300,000 votes. Biden’s current lead is 20,000 votes.

2. Mail-in voter fraud is historically rare. It is foolish to believe, however, that attempts at fraud would not increase in the 2020 General Election due to the tenuous nature of the election and astronomical expansion of mail-in voting. If the Washington Post analysis of fraud of 2016 and 2018 is correct, there were only 50 fraudulent ballots cast in Wisconsin this election. Is this believable?

3. What is the explanation for the unprecedented turnout in St. Croix County? When 10% of Milwaukee’s mail-in ballots went unreturned, 3% of the state’s mail-in primary ballots were filled incorrectly, how did St. Croix County achieve 96% turnout with nearly 70% of votes cast by mail?

4. Furthermore, even assuming zero fraud, what possible explanation is there for the record turnout in St. Croix County? Do we really believe St. Croix residents to have higher voting rates than their peers in Manhattan, Seoul, or Stockholm? Despite their low enthusiasm, did this election really motivate St. Croix voters more than 2016 or 2008? By double digits? Is 96% turnout even achievable going door-to-door on election day?

5. Who registered to vote in Wisconsin in the weeks leading up to the election? Wisconsinites are more likely to vote than anyone else in the country, then subjugated to a massive GOTV effort which expanded the electorate to levels unseen of outside Northern Europe, and after months of futile work, the voter rolls expanded by another 10% in the weeks leading up to the election. And the current explanation for astronomical turnout numbers being reported is that they do not include an additional 10% of the voting population that registered on election day? And no one, not even Nate Silver, the GOTV wagon drivers, or local news, picked up on this?

What is going in Wisconsin?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4685222&forum_id=2#41334801)

also, make sure to edit "going in" to "going on in".

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4685222&forum_id=2#41334858)

it's living on a .csv file on my PC rn I'll share it tmrw afternoon (today). I want to run a benford analysis (if even applicable) and some regression tests on the #s first. Got sidetracked with irl work tn

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4685222&forum_id=2#41340232)

Spikes in registration typically occur in October before elections, especially presidential elections. That's actually the norm.

I can't speak to Wisconsin's typically sky-high voter-turnout or these particular counties. I would say that if this level of participation were concerning or if the decentralized manner in which elections conducted were a serious problem for the GOP, it would have been changed long ago. The state is not NY or Cali (one-party rule). GOP had complete control of the state government earlier in this decade and they weren't afraid to use it to enact legislation that upset the apple cart (2011 Wisconsin Budget Repair Bill). I think the most likely explanation is that the state has ridiculously super-high turnout even in lower-turnout presidential elections, and when we have an election with high turnout across the country, it climbs a bit higher.

The dem primary in Wisc occurred in the heart of the pandemic and over a month after Bernie had been blown out of South Carolina and Super Tuesday states. It was a done deal.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/us/politics/taylor-swift-voter-registration.html

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/13/912519038/the-latest-voter-registration-trends

("If you look at, in general, a four-year cycle voter registration activity, what you'll see is pretty steady activity occurring for about 46 months during those 48 months. And then in September and October of a presidential election year, you'll see a huge spike of activity.")

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4685222&forum_id=2#41343776)

i have my issues with that number to begin with (do we use "reported rapes" to determine sexual assualt rates?), but i digress because i would prefer my argument to be independent of MBV fraud accusations anyways

those national trends aren't applicable to WI, especially not in 2020

the decentralized method was better for both parties and is part of the reason turnout is so high

if you don't want to talk about WI registration or sky-high turnout, or what makes their voting process unique, idk where we go from here. that's the entire argument. an meandering analysis of how a farm bill or state budget affected turnout in urban precincts is irrelevant

the second point, is these turnout numbers suggest an EXTRAORDINARY accuracy of MBV in some areas

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4685222&forum_id=2#41344253)

Mail-in return rates and accuracy will definitely vary by county and election year. That's been true in florida and every state that does mail-ins. St. Croix appears to be a fast-growing suburb of Minneapolis. It's the fastest growing county in Wisc. The vast majority of its residents are white, and it's probably higher-income and better educated than most counties. There's likely a decent correlation between those factors and turnout and mail-in accuracy. It's also controlled by the GOP (including a GOP DA), so I doubt that its high turnout is indicative of some fraud that's being suppressed.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4685222&forum_id=2#41344715)

https://empowerwisconsin.org/republicans-to-monitor-ballot-harvesting-events/

Empower Wisconsin | Oct. 1, 2020

By M.D Kittle

MADISON — The Republican Party of Wisconsin is warning the Madison city clerk that they will be closely watching a second ballot harvesting event this weekend and that the party continues to “explore” the legal concerns the “Democracy in the Park” initiative has raised.

RPW also says Milwaukee Brewers mascots and intellectual property used in Milwaukee’s voter registration drive presents electioneering questions.

In its letter to Madison City Clerk Maribeth Witzel-Behl, the party says it is concerned some of the ballots turned in at the event may not have been marked in the presence of the witness who must certify that they saw the individual complete their ballot.

“We are also concerned about the training that the ‘pollworkers’ may or may not have received,” the letter states. “We are continuing to work with the Trump campaign on staffing election observers in the park and advising them as we all continue to explore the legal options at our disposal.”

As Empower Wisconsin reported last week, the city held the first of its two “Democracy in the Park” events last Saturday at some 200 city parks. Poll workers reportedly collected nearly 11,000 absentee ballots. They also served as witnesses for voters bringing in blank ballots to complete. The public learned of this event through political ads endorsed by the campaign of Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden, casting a partisan stink over the reportedly “nonpartisan event.”

On Friday, before last weekend’s event, legislative Republicans sent a letter to Madison’s city clerk urging her “in the strongest possible terms” to call off the ballot harvest. The clerk and the city’s attorney, a former Government Accountability Board bureaucrat who was instrumental in the unconstitutional John Doe investigation, effectively told Republicans to go to hell.

“At minimum, your office should keep any ballots collected during this illegal effort separate from all other ballots that your office receives,” wrote attorney Misha Tseytlin, representing Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester) and Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R-Juneau).

Photos of haphazard-looking bags of ballots next to hapless poll workers on the day of the rally raised more concerns.

Republican Party of Wisconsin Executive Director Mark Jefferson said a team of party volunteers will be at the Madison parks this Saturday monitoring the event. He said litigation remains a possibility, depending on what they observe.

“We’re not looking to interfere. Our goal is to make sure the law is adhered to,” Jefferson said. “We do have among the most permissive voting laws in America. We don’t think it’s too much to ask people to follow them.”

In its letter to the Milwaukee Election Commission, the party said it has learned that some of the Brewers mascots and intellectual property have been used at a voter registration day drive at Miller Park.

“As you may know, places like Miller Park and the Fiserv Forum are also being used as early in-person absentee voting locations. While we can certainly appreciate that Wisconsin sports are an integral part of the community, we are extremely concerned that usage of sports players, mascots, etc. would be present while voting is taking place at these locations,” the RPW letter states. “Under Wisconsin Statute, this would likely constitute illegal electioneering.”

“While the media will try to paint this as trivial, the risks of players and mascots present while people are casting their ballots is an extreme risk for the integrity of our elections and violates the law,” the letter asserts.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4685222&forum_id=2#41343925)