Date: October 8th, 2026 2:56 AM Author: exhilarant box office codepig
Considering aliens are 100% not real and have never been detected and have zero chance of ever being discovered or proven beyond a reasonable doubt I'd say yeah that's pretty high for pure speculation without evidence.
Date: October 9th, 2026 1:44 AM Author: magenta friendly grandma
are you using a definition of aliens that has to mean things that fly spaceships to Earth? because based on the current scientific evidence there is already like a 70% chance that there used to be life on mars and a pretty high chance maybe 30-50% chance that there is life right now elsewhere in the solar system (like europa or Enceladus). and obviously if you count the entire galaxy, nevermind other galaxies there is going to be a ton of life just going by numbers. The idea that Earth is the only planet with life in the entire observable universe is extraordinarily implausible. I just can't take it seriously at all. I don't consider it an intellectually serious position.
Date: October 9th, 2026 1:51 AM Author: magenta friendly grandma
How hard do you think it can possibly be to bootstrap bacteria on a planet with conditions similar to Earth? Can't be that difficult given how soon it appeared after Earth's formation. And also considering complex life might be a more difficult bottleneck and we have had multiple geological events that wiped most life off the planet and it still regenerated. The siberian traps killed like 90% of life on Earth, and evolution reinvented entire new ecosystems.
Date: October 9th, 2026 2:00 AM Author: magenta friendly grandma
Well if we know nothing about it then your claim is retarded, because we would have to know quite a bit about it to explain why Earth is uniquely inhabited among an astronomical number of planets
Date: October 9th, 2026 2:02 AM Author: exhilarant box office codepig
That's a facile argument. There could be a a trillion times more planets in the solar system and none of them could have life. Until we have some answer as to how it happened it would be ridiculous to speculate that it would just happen a lot of times given a near infinite universe. The only thing we know for sure is it happened once and there are a lot of planets. Those are the only claims we can make without wild speculation.
Date: October 9th, 2026 2:08 AM Author: magenta friendly grandma
You are falling back on wild speculation for your argument, like "what if the moon were made of cheese". Saying "there could be a a trillion times more planets in the solar system and none of them could have life", is no different than saying there could be a trillion times more planets and every single one has life.
You're the one who originally assigned a probability of exactly zero to extraterrestrial life. That's an astonishingly confident conclusion for someone whose entire argument now rests on how little we know.
Date: October 9th, 2026 2:27 AM Author: magenta friendly grandma
I think there is a good chance, but what they have right now isn't enough. The patterns on the rocks could plausibly have had non-living mechanisms. There are some scientists who already consider it "proof", but they are in the minority. But I'm confident the overall probability there was life on mars is pretty high. We'll see, they still haven't even tested all the rocks yet. The evidence could easily be in rocks already collected. We have found rock samples in Earth that still have signs of life preserved after billions of years.
Panspermia is interesting, but for definitive proof that life can evolve elsewhere, I think you're almost certainly want to look beyond our solar system