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Bondmos how bad is this?

https://x.com/spencerhakimian/status/1922740334930403647?s=4...
Charismatic Step-uncle's House
  05/14/25
He got 'dat gold bug
adventurous weed whacker haunted graveyard
  05/14/25
no offense mr. man, but your generation really fucked all fu...
Rose Macaca
  05/14/25
You are so full of shit.
adventurous weed whacker haunted graveyard
  05/14/25
explain yourself.
Rose Macaca
  05/14/25
"Generations" don't screw over other "generat...
magical razzle-dazzle ratface
  05/14/25
the problem is that the pool of preps vs. losers for future ...
Rose Macaca
  05/14/25
That's the fun in screwing over Losers. They THINK they're P...
magical razzle-dazzle ratface
  05/14/25
This is the scholarship I come here for
razzmatazz chestnut meetinghouse background story
  05/14/25
oh. you couldnt. you really thought you were entitled to the...
Rose Macaca
  05/14/25
How is he to blame for the republican caucus?
magical razzle-dazzle ratface
  05/14/25
i just want the greedy old fucker to admit some of his lifes...
Rose Macaca
  05/14/25
He spent all of his money caring for his Tall schizophrenic ...
magical razzle-dazzle ratface
  05/14/25
NBD
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
ur fucking retarded and even trump is scared shitless about ...
Rose Macaca
  05/14/25
no. sorrry bro
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US30Y we are back to pre fina...
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
"normal" for who? the slew of companies that exist...
Rose Macaca
  05/14/25
english please? these are normal rates when the govt isnt...
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
okay let me slow it down for you how is the federal gover...
Rose Macaca
  05/14/25
oh its not. it was never meant too. ive been saying this for...
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
okay so i think we agree there's a major fucking problem som...
Rose Macaca
  05/14/25
he was correct. We send $1.2T abroad in our current account ...
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
"The sell-off in bonds was so unsettling that it spooke...
Rose Macaca
  05/14/25
yes back then and thats cuz trump is a pussy. point? if u wa...
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
The tariffs are the one thing that's actually helping the de...
magical razzle-dazzle ratface
  05/14/25
then why are we backing off, letting HLS boomers who were so...
Rose Macaca
  05/14/25
bro. 401ks cannot go down. our top 5% cannot burn any burden...
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
That's the genius of Trump's dealmaking. The 10% baseline ta...
magical razzle-dazzle ratface
  05/14/25
UK exempt from steel tariffs. We will exempt more. 10% tari...
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
EU's actual tariffs are 2-3%. Their "other trade barrie...
magical razzle-dazzle ratface
  05/14/25
I was referring to cars where they have/had a 10% tariff on ...
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
You're a fucking retard, the US has a 25% tariff on light tr...
Chartreuse exciting shitlib
  05/14/25
oh yes i forgot. silly me for focusing on euro cars and SUVs...
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
The EU has lower average tariffs than the US https://data...
Chartreuse exciting shitlib
  05/14/25
Thank you, LathamTouchedMe's alt and fellow Liberal.
magical razzle-dazzle ratface
  05/14/25
ur a dumb fag. hth
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
You literally fuck male assholes, retard. Basic facts confus...
Chartreuse exciting shitlib
  05/14/25
(guy who cant tell the difference between median and average...
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
It's spelled "they're", you illiterate, innumerate...
Chartreuse exciting shitlib
  05/14/25
?
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
...
Bonkers Up-to-no-good Kitchen
  05/14/25
don't worry republicans will fix the deficit
geriatric locale therapy
  05/14/25
Glad my inheritance includes an $800k share in elite hunting...
Rebellious goyim indirect expression
  05/14/25
hope he doesn't boom it away :)
chrome theatre
  05/14/25
Good for savers. I’m gonna eat up some 4 and 8 weekers...
Elite Bossy Doctorate
  05/14/25
?
galvanic carmine center
  05/14/25
Why aren't CD rates higher? https://www.forbes.com/adviso...
Rebellious goyim indirect expression
  05/14/25
sorry shareholders come first
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
Just buy bonds, CDs are for noobs.
magical razzle-dazzle ratface
  05/14/25
That guy is a fecal lib
Flirting maniacal church
  05/14/25
He's 100% right about how we're going to inflate away our de...
Rebellious goyim indirect expression
  05/14/25
They did this non-stop in the 2010s and it was nbd. The only...
magical razzle-dazzle ratface
  05/14/25
Pretty sure that was different- seem to recall they were kee...
Rebellious goyim indirect expression
  05/14/25
They were both The Same. The 2020-2022 bond purchases were d...
magical razzle-dazzle ratface
  05/14/25
sen. johnson says BBB is dead https://www.politico.com/li...
geriatric locale therapy
  05/14/25
thank god
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
Didn’t Trump make very clear he wanted a weaker dollar...
hairraiser forum death wish
  05/14/25
trump has made it clear he wants both a strong and weak doll...
Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe
  05/14/25
I don't know what this means. But because of retarded shit l...
Dashing offensive university
  05/14/25
If I were dumping all my money into one asset, I would also ...
vengeful low-t range
  05/14/25


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:09 PM
Author: Charismatic Step-uncle's House

https://x.com/spencerhakimian/status/1922740334930403647?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48930990)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:22 PM
Author: adventurous weed whacker haunted graveyard

He got 'dat gold bug

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931029)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:30 PM
Author: Rose Macaca

no offense mr. man, but your generation really fucked all future generations with your spending (and covid hysteria). speaking on behalf of boomers who bought houses for 1 paycheck, does your generation feel any guilt?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931063)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:34 PM
Author: adventurous weed whacker haunted graveyard

You are so full of shit.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931088)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:35 PM
Author: Rose Macaca

explain yourself.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931093)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:40 PM
Author: magical razzle-dazzle ratface

"Generations" don't screw over other "generations" irl really. People Stratify and help their Clique intergenerationally while screwing over Losers. Millennial Preps are probably doing better than boomer Preps if anything. Zoomer Jocks are breaking records atm.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931115)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:41 PM
Author: Rose Macaca

the problem is that the pool of preps vs. losers for future generations will be smaller and smaller iirc

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931118)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:57 PM
Author: magical razzle-dazzle ratface

That's the fun in screwing over Losers. They THINK they're Preppy or at least not Jokes bc they go to College or whatever and then they just get screwed at OCI. These are the Losers that society relishes Ruining.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931156)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 8:28 PM
Author: razzmatazz chestnut meetinghouse background story

This is the scholarship I come here for

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931535)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:45 PM
Author: Rose Macaca

oh. you couldnt. you really thought you were entitled to the lavish lifestyle youve received rather than internalizing that it was all debt. got it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931129)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:04 PM
Author: magical razzle-dazzle ratface

How is he to blame for the republican caucus?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931176)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:06 PM
Author: Rose Macaca

i just want the greedy old fucker to admit some of his lifestyle over the past 20-30 years was future spending. he apparently shrinks away from such a concept

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931180)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:07 PM
Author: magical razzle-dazzle ratface

He spent all of his money caring for his Tall schizophrenic sons imo.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931185)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:25 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

NBD

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931038)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:31 PM
Author: Rose Macaca

ur fucking retarded and even trump is scared shitless about it - hence the SO RANDOM cooperation with china and OOPS DELETE tariff tweets

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931066)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:32 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

no. sorrry bro

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931077)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:33 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US30Y

we are back to pre financial crisis fake QE bullshit. 5-6% is normal. we are at hitting 5% now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931083)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:35 PM
Author: Rose Macaca

"normal" for who? the slew of companies that exist because of a decade of near-0 rates? the US gov with a debt load it's literally never seen before?

normal IS perpetual low rates now. trump tried to get us there by shooting consumption in the face. he missed.

now what.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931092)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:36 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

english please?

these are normal rates when the govt isnt buying its own debt to force yields below market.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931095)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:38 PM
Author: Rose Macaca

okay let me slow it down for you

how is the federal government going to afford its spending with a perpetual 20% increase in its interest obligations

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931102)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:39 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

oh its not. it was never meant too. ive been saying this for years. we grew our debt by like $6T during biden. all of our growth has come from debt. you cannot continue like that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931109)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:40 PM
Author: Rose Macaca

okay so i think we agree there's a major fucking problem somewhere unless trump adopts austerity

id love to see him do it tbh, i wish he had campaigned on it

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931113)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:41 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

he was correct. We send $1.2T abroad in our current account deficit. Keep that money home offsets govt spending cuts.

But change is hard and Trump doesnt like hard.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931122)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:37 PM
Author: Rose Macaca

"The sell-off in bonds was so unsettling that it spooked the White House.

“People were getting a little queasy,” Trump said Wednesday as he told reporters he was watching the bond market.

“The bond market is very tricky,” he said."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931099)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:40 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

yes back then and thats cuz trump is a pussy. point? if u want make the trump that trump folds like a lawnchair, then fair

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931111)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:42 PM
Author: magical razzle-dazzle ratface

The tariffs are the one thing that's actually helping the deficit. It's the best tax you could ask for. A consumption tax on consoomers.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931124)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:44 PM
Author: Rose Macaca

then why are we backing off, letting HLS boomers who were so proficient at what - drafting offering documents 30 years ago - off the hook and spend till they die?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931128)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:46 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

bro. 401ks cannot go down. our top 5% cannot burn any burden of the things that caused their RE and stocks to moon for almost no reason during their life

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931131)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:09 PM
Author: magical razzle-dazzle ratface

That's the genius of Trump's dealmaking. The 10% baseline tariffs are staying. The steel tariffs are staying. Tariffs were like 2-3% on average before this. He will have quadrupled tariffs when this all said and done. The MSM doesn't report this because they're liberal artists and don't understand shit like this.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931188)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:15 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

UK exempt from steel tariffs. We will exempt more.

10% tariffs. wow. So like the same as the EU before. Surely this will change our $1.2T deficit. Trump genius again! He def didnt fold!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931211)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:19 PM
Author: magical razzle-dazzle ratface

EU's actual tariffs are 2-3%. Their "other trade barriers" are another matter. Cars are another matter at ~25% or so. tbh they aren't scared of American cars bc they are known to suck. Ford sort of has a foothold there. GM owns Opel. But you aren't selling F-150s in Europe ffs.

But most of the problem is just that American consumer goods suck or are just "okay."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931218)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:27 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

I was referring to cars where they have/had a 10% tariff on us when we had a 2.5% one on theirs.

EU has low tariffs on american goods that are banned/not produced in EU so the 2-3% is bullshit.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931238)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:37 PM
Author: Chartreuse exciting shitlib

You're a fucking retard, the US has a 25% tariff on light trucks which is one-third of its automobile market

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931259)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:55 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

oh yes i forgot. silly me for focusing on euro cars and SUVs and not those benz pick ups!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931312)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:24 PM
Author: Chartreuse exciting shitlib

The EU has lower average tariffs than the US

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false

The Heritage Foundation rates the US 65th in the world for trade freedom, which includes tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers, worse than most European countries:

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/herit_trade_freedom/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931232)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:24 PM
Author: magical razzle-dazzle ratface

Thank you, LathamTouchedMe's alt and fellow Liberal.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931233)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:28 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

ur a dumb fag. hth

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931239)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:38 PM
Author: Chartreuse exciting shitlib

You literally fuck male assholes, retard. Basic facts confuse and anger you because you are so incredibly stupid.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931267)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:56 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

(guy who cant tell the difference between median and average)

their all faacts!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931313)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 8:23 PM
Author: Chartreuse exciting shitlib

It's spelled "they're", you illiterate, innumerate retard

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931521)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 11:52 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48932337)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 8:52 PM
Author: Bonkers Up-to-no-good Kitchen



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931589)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:26 PM
Author: geriatric locale therapy

don't worry republicans will fix the deficit

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931041)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:31 PM
Author: Rebellious goyim indirect expression

Glad my inheritance includes an $800k share in elite hunting club land. No telling how much it will be worth when my dad finally kicks the bucket in 20-30 years or so.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931067)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:47 PM
Author: chrome theatre

hope he doesn't boom it away :)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931135)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:34 PM
Author: Elite Bossy Doctorate

Good for savers. I’m gonna eat up some 4 and 8 weekers tomorrow.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931087)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:00 PM
Author: galvanic carmine center

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931166)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:38 PM
Author: Rebellious goyim indirect expression

Why aren't CD rates higher?

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/cds/best-cd-rates/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931103)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:40 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

sorry shareholders come first

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931116)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:50 PM
Author: magical razzle-dazzle ratface

Just buy bonds, CDs are for noobs.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931295)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:40 PM
Author: Flirting maniacal church

That guy is a fecal lib

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931112)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:46 PM
Author: Rebellious goyim indirect expression

He's 100% right about how we're going to inflate away our debt. Every other course of action- massive tax increases and massive spending cuts - takes too much political courage by Congress. Instead just appoint some Uncle Tom members of the Fed who are willing to print as much money as their political masters want them to, to buy bonds.

The debt will be "paid" for, massive inflation will result, but there will be no politician left holding the bag because they didn't vote for anything unpopular.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931132)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:55 PM
Author: magical razzle-dazzle ratface

They did this non-stop in the 2010s and it was nbd. The only reason there was "inflation" was because of the COVID shock and giving proles like $10,000k cash each.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931155)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 5:58 PM
Author: Rebellious goyim indirect expression

Pretty sure that was different- seem to recall they were keeping that QE money on the ledgers of big investment banks they were bailing out and stuff. Definitely recall them saying they were avoiding the money going into the general economy.

If you print money to buy bonds to pay for granny's social security, you are just dumping printed money into the economy. No way that won't cause inflation.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931160)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:07 PM
Author: magical razzle-dazzle ratface

They were both The Same. The 2020-2022 bond purchases were done with nonexistent "money," effectively by Changing a Number in a ledger. This is what Powell always says anyway.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931184)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:42 PM
Author: geriatric locale therapy

sen. johnson says BBB is dead

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/05/14/congress/the-titanic-johnson-predicts-houses-big-beautiful-reconciliation-bill-will-sink-in-the-senate-00348310

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931284)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 6:59 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

thank god

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931319)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 8:13 PM
Author: hairraiser forum death wish

Didn’t Trump make very clear he wanted a weaker dollar to promote exports. He got his tariffs (10% global, and suddenly 30% on China is viewed as reasonable), so now comes a weaker dollar to promote on-shoring and burnish American exporters.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931497)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 8:15 PM
Author: Ebony thirsty love of her life giraffe

trump has made it clear he wants both a strong and weak dollar.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931501)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 14th, 2025 9:17 PM
Author: Dashing offensive university

I don't know what this means. But because of retarded shit like this, ZeroHedge, and Peter Schiff, I have 50% less wealth than I should have.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48931614)



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Date: May 14th, 2025 11:54 PM
Author: vengeful low-t range

If I were dumping all my money into one asset, I would also tell everyone else to do the same

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5725017&forum_id=2#48932339)