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86% of Chinese with corona went undetected
Poast new message in this thread
Date: March 19th, 2020 5:12 PM Author: lascivious bistre national That would put hospitalization and fatality rate at 10x lower
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.geekwire.com/2020/scientists-find-86-percent-coronavirus-infections-go-unreported/amp/ |
Date: March 19th, 2020 5:13 PM Author: Overrated site How you liking that Android? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810428) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:13 PM Author: irradiated codepig Big, if true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810430) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:14 PM Author: snowy violent son of senegal toaster lol, i posted the same thing without realizing it's a meme (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810435) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:13 PM Author: snowy violent son of senegal toaster This is massive news if true. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810431) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:14 PM Author: Dashing trump supporter pozpig this thing is clearly just everywhere. governments know this but they dont want to say (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810440) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:15 PM Author: glittery stubborn cruise ship idea he suggested if that's the case it should be impossible for them to quarantine it and whatever SK and China are doing now is bullshit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810447) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:16 PM Author: snowy violent son of senegal toaster yeah, how the hell can China be reporting zero new infections at all then? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810458) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:17 PM Author: titillating swollen hissy fit pocket flask because the CCP is the greatiest political org in modern human history (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810468) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:39 PM Author: Sick Emerald Hairy Legs Wagecucks china lies about everything (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810605) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:17 PM Author: mustard trip private investor Time for the world to shut the borders to China on a semi-permanent basis? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810461) |
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Date: March 25th, 2020 1:26 AM Author: Cyan partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39857262) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:18 PM Author: sexy saffron church building Locking everybody down still should work, no? As long as it's everybody (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810472) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:28 PM Author: glittery stubborn cruise ship idea he suggested it can never be EVERYBODY EVERYBODY - at these infection rates the disease would become endemic everywhere. I suppose if you lock down everyone for 2 weeks the asymptomatic virus would go away and the virus would not be endemic in China anymore (same for the cold or flu).
But this also requires China cutting itself off from the rest of the world forever, where we have apparently accepted the virus becoming endemic. |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 11:03 PM Author: Wonderful brass senate travel guidebook China being cut off from the world forever sounds 1800000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39813146) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:48 PM Author: lascivious bistre national It's not that quarantine and social distancing don't work. The study is showing that the WHO's numbers (20% hospitalization and 3.4% death rate) were based on detection rates that were way too low and heavily biased toward bad cases. The study showed that as time went on China got much better at detecting cases. The problem is that when you include the old numbers the data is still garbage. China's numbers now as far as new cases are likely much better. Same with Korea (see also China data on places that had more recent infections like Beijing; death rate sub 1%). If case detection is poor then the fatality rate looks much higher and most places around the world have shitty data. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810662) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:49 PM Author: glittery stubborn cruise ship idea he suggested quarantining will not work with an endemic disease, it just flattens the curve and requires permanent quarantine. the no new cases with an endemic disease that is mostly asymptomatic is impossible. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810673) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 10:51 PM Author: chocolate odious laser beams boltzmann Yeah. It will most likely become endemic. It is too infectious. There is considerable underreporting, because only extreme cases are being reported. No way will quarantine work. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39813040) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:15 PM Author: mustard trip private investor It only puts the fatality numbers lower if you believe the fatality numbers. But not if a ton of people died at home and were incinerated without being tested. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810449) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:16 PM Author: titillating swollen hissy fit pocket flask this anti china shit is so lolzy, the idea they can just make tens of thousands of chinks disappear and their relatives arent on wechat etc bitching is lolzy, chinks bitch against the govt believe it or not esp over shit like this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810459) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:41 PM Author: Maize Parlour Karate China has 27,000 people die every single day. Year-to-date, that's roughly 2.1 million deaths so far this year.
You're a fucking retard if you think China isn't capable of covering up a few tens of thousands of surplus deaths in that figure |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:44 PM Author: Overrated site Unless any individual knows all 3,000 det, it'd be easy for 50K to die and govt to just be like, "sorry ur mom was one of the 3k party heroes who died" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810634) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 11:05 PM Author: house-broken soul-stirring office goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39813165) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:12 PM Author: Gay field volcanic crater lol @ this CCP shill (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810843) |
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Date: March 25th, 2020 1:22 AM Author: vivacious maniacal macaca scourge upon the earth that's tommy turd i think. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39857241) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:17 PM Author: Thriller state LJL justaflumos VINDICATED (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810466) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:19 PM Author: lascivious bistre national If true it’s still deadlier than the flu and requires a robust response. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810478) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:47 PM Author: razzle arrogant corner Not the destruction of the American economy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39811082) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:36 PM Author: azure business firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810576) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:18 PM Author: Dead balding theater stage generalized bond so real percentage is like:
~5% require hospitalization (not 20%)
~0.5% death rate?
what % of the 5% that require hospitalization require critical care?
the problem here is that because its infectious and we have no immunity most of the population will be infected if we dont do anything
so that 5% is impossible to deal with when its 5% of say 50M
with regular flu at any time maybe only a few million have it and only a very small percentage of that infected population require hospitalization
so it comes down 0.5% of 5M (regular flu) vs 5% of 50M that require hospitalization for say a 2 week period near the peak?
can we handle 2.5M hospitalizations and 250K ICU critical cases at a given time? |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:21 PM Author: lascivious bistre national Yeah, it’s definitely a problem requiring a robust response. But it is closer to what we see in a really bad flu season than perhaps what we thought. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810491) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:23 PM Author: Vengeful temple Odd case, (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810497) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:40 PM Author: azure business firm maybe they can give you some remdesivir, hand you some of those malaria pills and send you on your way in a day unless you’re really in bad shape? That’d be nice (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39811042) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 10:40 PM Author: Amber tank > can we handle 2.5M hospitalizations and 250K ICU critical cases at a given time?
Absolutely, 100% not, especially considering they will not be evenly distributed across the country. It will be 50K ICU beds in NYC when they only have like 3,000, and 0 in Dubuque. See https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielshapiro/2020/03/17/cuomo-says-new-york-needs-as-many-as-37000-icu-beds-it-only-has-3000/#179f6b5f739f (NY state has less than 10% of the ICU beds it might need.) EDIT: OH, and 80% of them are already occupied. |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:22 PM Author: umber exhilarant center If true, herd immunity will come faster than anyone thought. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810493) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:24 PM Author: Thriller state yup yup. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810506) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:23 PM Author: lascivious bistre national Also the study jives with the numbers from Korea. They have the best testing system in the world but they still probably have a bunch more undetecteds. Their fatality and hospitalization rates are way lower than Italy or China. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810498) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:24 PM Author: rebellious razzle-dazzle newt sanctuary What's your theory on why suddenly China has zero cases (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810507) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:57 PM Author: adventurous locus reading party Investigative journalism and neutral reporting of facts by scientists and doctors are all illegal and punishable by career-destroying shunning, disappearance and death if necessary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810725) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:12 PM Author: mustard trip private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810851) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:14 PM Author: Gay field volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810857) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:17 PM Author: violet dilemma circlehead Jfc Tommy? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810902) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:50 PM Author: Brindle Indian Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39811095) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:05 PM Author: exciting party of the first part https://twitter.com/SheenaGreitens/status/1240646034151198721?s=20
GDP figures are 'man-made' and therefore unreliable, [then-executive vice premier] Li [Keqiang] said. When evaluating Liaoning's economy, he focuses on three figures:
I) electricity consumption, which was up 10 per cent in Liaoning last year;
2) volume of rail cargo, which is fairly accurate because fees are charged for each unit of weight; and
3) amount of loans disbursed, which also tends to be accurate given the interest fees charged.
By looking at these three figures, Li said he can measure with relative accuracy the speed of economic growth. All other figures, especially GDP statistics, are 'for reference only,' he said smiling.
Wikileaks, Cable 07BEIJINGl760, 15 March 2007 |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:41 PM Author: flushed hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39811052) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 11:01 PM Author: flushed hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39813126) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 5:55 PM Author: lake stead no shit. it's like the flu. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810715) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:05 PM Author: hairraiser main people we already knew that people under 60 are largely unaffected or only affected w/ minor illness, so it makes sense that lots of people would not show up as documented hospital cases. the mortality of people over 60 being like 10x higher than flu mortality has been the alarming concern.
if it's rampaging thru the population undetected, but killing 10% of people >60, it's still going to be a huge bloodbath. |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:14 PM Author: lascivious bistre national This assumes that detection of cases in olds has been accurate. While the "undetecteds" are probably more likely to be young I doubt the denominator with olds is accurate in the vast majority of places. I do think this is serious, especially for older people but there is a very good chance we are using shitty data biased towards the worst cases. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810866) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:23 PM Author: Maize Parlour Karate "We're using shitty data!" he shrieked as 500 Italians die per day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39810938) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:27 PM Author: hairraiser main people yeah, i keep coming back to the one obv undeniable 'data point', which is the raw body count. looking at North Italy : what happens when we scale North Italy's experience to the whole country, all of EU, all of US, etc. they went from 0 to 5K dead in a few weeks, in a small area with a limited exposure. that's potentially a big pile of bodies if that experience is duplicated across the world.
but it's confusing, because Germany/South Korea are not having as many deaths, so who knows wtf is going on. |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:38 PM Author: lascivious bistre national When we've gone back and tested old people whose deaths were attributed to various causes we've found flu and corona viruses and bacterial infections (and sometimes all three). We don't have clear data from Italy. How does this compare to prior influenza seasons? How many people normally die of respiratory and non-respiratory diseases there and how do these numbers compare to today? I'm not saying a corona virus can't ravage a nursing home, my point is that we are truly in the dark and that it's more likely the rate of hospitalization and death is much lower because it's impossible to capture the more minor cases. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39811036) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 7:07 PM Author: Big-titted principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39811252) |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 7:21 PM Author: hairraiser main people but capturing minor cases in order to prove that the hospitalization/death *rate* is PERHAPS lower OVERALL -- if it is lower -- doesn't mean much. if the 'novel' coronavirus is spreading like wildfire undetected thru 100% of populations which have zero immunity to it, it will kill many more people than the flu in total numbers. US flu deaths last year were 30,000. so 5K in one region of N. Italy in a month seems like a big deal. or are you saying the people in N. Italy are dying of something other than coronavirus? they tested positive for coronavirus AFAIK. |
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Date: March 19th, 2020 6:51 PM Author: arousing shitlib How many Italians die of flu every day? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39811105) |
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Date: March 30th, 2020 12:35 PM Author: lascivious bistre national Does anyone still think this thing isn't everywhere already? And by everywhere I mean at least a seven figure for cases? We could hit herd immunity within the next 1-2 months. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#39899349) |
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Date: April 17th, 2020 3:22 PM Author: lascivious bistre national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&forum_id=2#40035820) |