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Is presumption that GOP will outperform on election day justified?
| Vermilion dilemma | 10/28/20 |
| zombie-like obsidian library | 10/28/20 |
| Vermilion dilemma | 10/28/20 |
| Cracking embarrassed to the bone feces hissy fit | 10/28/20 |
| racy institution | 10/28/20 |
| Vermilion dilemma | 10/28/20 |
| racy institution | 10/28/20 |
| Fishy Persian | 10/28/20 |
| Sexy Public Bath Incel | 10/28/20 |
| Pungent cumskin main people | 10/28/20 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: October 28th, 2020 12:13 PM Author: Vermilion dilemma Seems common-sensical: libs more worried about virus, cons more careless about virus.
But is there anything more to that presumption?
Guy in Borders video says "everyone agrees with this" |
Date: October 28th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: zombie-like obsidian library I think its this way normally also So they expect to be more so this year. And in person v mail-in supports this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664474&forum_id=2#41205251) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:16 PM Author: Vermilion dilemma silents and boomers are more GOP than any other age demo. they may be most inclined for convenience / safety of mail-in or going 4 days early to beat the line. My parents will go to the earliest possible Catholic mass and the earliest possible dinner reservation for the same reasons
Id also say those with strongest future orientation are more naturally inclined to be conservative
I dont know shit about it, but this seems to be a yuge presumption on which everyone is building everything else |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:16 PM Author: Cracking embarrassed to the bone feces hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664474&forum_id=2#41205269) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:18 PM Author: racy institution Rs are more inclined to vote in person. But in person early voting has been gangbusters this year (look at FL) so ED turnout may be depressed a bit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664474&forum_id=2#41205277) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:21 PM Author: Vermilion dilemma iow, its lol nobody knows
olds are very gop, and gop likes to vote in person, but olds also like to plan ahead and avoid crowds, but gop isnt as fearful of crowds....
it seems kooky, but the cw this week is adamant about GOP going wild on tuesday |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:23 PM Author: racy institution Certain states definitely won't be as crazy as 2016 on ED. Florida is running out of voters because over half of Rs have already voted. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664474&forum_id=2#41205319) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:23 PM Author: Fishy Persian Every single poll has shown R's and R leaning I's much more likely to vote on Election Day, by huge margins.
Dems also have no GOTV this year and were relying on VBM
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:23 PM Author: Sexy Public Bath Incel This year Dems have been spamming the fuck out of their voters to vote by mail/in-person early. GOP has to a lesser extent, but the right wing media+Trump messaging is that mail voting=fraud and the election happens on Election Day, so that prob drives a lot of Trump true believers to vote on the day. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664474&forum_id=2#41205318) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 2:43 PM Author: Pungent cumskin main people It's an underdiscussed aspect of this that the fact that the Dems have turned out early ought to help them expand their electorate on election day. Having more vote banked means you can spend more resources targeting marginal voters and turning them out both in actual GOTV resources, but also targeted messaging. The idea that Dems have way more money to target way fewer voters because so many turned out already is a huge and badly underdiscussed factor in all these analyses, including especially borders' and all his favorite pollsters. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664474&forum_id=2#41206417) |