http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/01/15/secret_state_department_cable_chemical_weapons_used_in_syria

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1881999&forum_id=2#22439878)

(deluded shitlib)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1881999&forum_id=2#22439886)

Exclusive: Secret State Department cable: Chemical weapons used in Syria

Posted By Josh Rogin Tuesday, January 15, 2013 - 5:45 PM Share

A secret State Department cable has concluded that the Syrian military likely used chemical weapons against its own people in a deadly attack last month, The Cable has learned.

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United States diplomats in Turkey conducted a previously undisclosed, intensive investigation into claims that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons, and made what an Obama administration official who reviewed the cable called a "compelling case" that Assad's military forces had used a deadly form of poison gas.

The cable, signed by the U.S. consul general in Istanbul, Scott Frederic Kilner, and sent to State Department headquarters in Washington last week, outlined the results of the consulate's investigation into reports from inside Syria that chemical weapons had been used in the city of Homs on Dec. 23.

The consul general's report followed a series of interviews with activists, doctors, and defectors, in what the administration official said was one of the most comprehensive efforts the U.S. government has made to investigate claims by internal Syrian sources. The investigation included a meeting between the consulate staff and Mustafa al-Sheikh, a high-level defector who once was a major general in Assad's army and key official in the Syrian military's WMD program.

An Obama administration official who reviewed the document, which was classified at the "secret" level, detailed its contents to The Cable. "We can't definitely say 100 percent, but Syrian contacts made a compelling case that Agent 15 was used in Homs on Dec. 23," the official said.

The use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime would cross the "red line" President Barack Obama first established in an Aug. 20 statement. "We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized. That would change my calculus. That would change my equation," Obama said.

To date, the administration has not initiated any major policy changes in response to the classified cable, but a Deputies Committee meeting of top administration officials is scheduled for this week.

The report confirms the worst fears of officials who are frustrated by the current policy, which is to avoid any direct military assistance to the Syrian rebels and limit U.S. aid to sporadic deliveries of humanitarian and communications equipment.

Many believe that Assad is testing U.S. red lines.

"This reflects the concerns of many in the U.S. government that the regime is pursuing a policy of escalation to see what they can get away with as the regime is getting more desperate," the administration official said.

The consulate's investigation was facilitated by BASMA, an NGO the State Department has hired as one of its implementing partners inside Syria. BASMA connected consular officials with witnesses to the incident and other first-hand information.

The official warned that if the U.S. government does not react strongly to the use of chemical weapons in Homs, Assad may be emboldened to escalate his use of such weapons of mass destruction.

"It's incidents like this that lead to a mass-casualty event," the official said.

Activist and doctors on the ground in Homs have been circulating evidence of the Dec. 23 incident over the past three weeks in an attempt to convince the international community of its veracity. An Arabic-language report circulated by the rebels' Homs medical committee detailed the symptoms of several of the victims who were brought to a makeshift field hospital inside the city and claims that the victims suffered severe effects of inhaling poisonous gas.

Activists have also been circulating videos of the victims on YouTube and Facebook. In one of the videos, victims can be seen struggling for breath and choking on their own vomit. (More videos, which are graphic, can be found here, here, here, here, here and here.)

Experts say the symptoms match the effects of Agent 15, known also by its NATO code BZ, which is a CX-level incapacitating agent that is controlled under schedule 2 of the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Syria is a party.

"The symptoms of an incapacitating agent are temporary. If someone is exposed to BZ, they are likely to be confused, perhaps to hallucinate," said Amy Smithson, a senior fellow with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. "While it is not good news that a chemical agent of any kind may have been used in the Syrian conflict, this Agent 15 is certainly on the less harmful end of the spectrum of chemical warfare agents believed to be in the Syrian arsenal."

The Cable spoke with two doctors who were on the scene in Homs on Dec. 23 and treated the victims. Both doctors said that the chemical weapon used in the attack may not have been Agent 15, but they are sure it was a chemical weapon, not a form of tear gas. The doctors attributed five deaths and approximately 100 instances of severe respiratory, nervous system, and gastrointestinal ailments to the poison gas.

"It was a chemical weapon, we are sure of that, because tear gas can't cause the death of five people," said Dr. Nashwan Abu Abdo, a neurologist who spoke with The Cable from an undisclosed location inside of Homs.

Abdo said the chemical agent was delivered by a tank shell and that the range of symptoms varied based on the victim's proximity to the poison. The lightly affected people exhibited gastrointestinal symptoms, nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain, he said. Victims who received a higher concentration of the poison, in addition to the gastrointestinal symptoms, showed respiratory symptoms as well.

"The main symptom of the respiratory ailments was bronchial secretions. This particular symptom was the cause of the death of all of the people," he said. "All of them died choking on their own secretions."

The doctors said their conclusion that the poison was a chemical agent and not tear gas was based on three factors: the suddenness of the deaths of those who were directly exposed, the large number of people affected, and the fact that many victims returned with recurring symptoms more than 12 hours after they had been treated, meaning that the poison had settled either in their nervous systems or fat tissue.

"They all had miosis -- pinpoint pupils. They also had generalized muscle pain. There were also bad symptoms as far as their central nervous system. There were generalized seizures and some patients had partial seizures. This actually is proof that the poison was able to pass the blood-brain barrier," Abdo said. "In addition, there was acute mental confusion presented by hallucinations, delusions, personality changes, and behavioral changes."

The doctors on the scene said they were not able to pinpoint the poison because they lacked the advanced laboratory equipment needed. They took blood, hair, saliva, and urine samples, but those samples are no longer viable for testing because too much time has passed, they said.

"We took many samples, we kept them, but we cannot get them anywhere because we are in the besieged Homs area," he said. "We are not 100 percent sure what poison was used, but we can say with firm statement that it was not tear gas, that's for sure."

The State Department, in response to inquiries from The Cable, declined to comment on the secret cable from Istanbul or say whether or not chemical weapons were used in the Homs attack, but said that the administration believes Assad's chemical weapons are secure.

"I'm not going to comment on the alleged content of a classified cable," State Department Spokesman Patrick Ventrell told The Cable. "As you know, the United States closely monitors Syria's proliferation-sensitive materials and facilities, and we believe Syria's chemical weapons stockpile remains secured by the Syrian government. We have been clear that if Assad's regime makes the tragic mistake of using chemical weapons or failing to secure them, it will be held accountable."

Shifting red lines

The White House's threats to react to Assad's WMD activity have softened over time. In Obama's Aug. 20 statement, he indicated that "a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around" would trigger U.S. action.

Obama then shifted his warning to Assad about red lines in December, after intelligence reports stated that the Syrian regime had moved some precursor chemicals out of storage and mixed them, making them easier to deploy. Now, Obama's red line is that the United States will react if Syria uses these weapons.

"The use of chemical weapons is and would be totally unacceptable," Obama said Dec. 3, directing his comments at Assad. "If you make the tragic mistake of using these weapons, there will be consequences and you will be held accountable." That same day, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton added: "we are certainly planning to take action if that eventuality were to occur."

Outside analysts worry that the administration's red line may have shifted again.

"Given the fact you have that in a cable, this indicates that the Obama administration may not simply jump into the conflict because chemical agents are used," said Andrew Tabler, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "Assad has a much better idea now of what he can do and get away with."

"This shows that actually the red line on chemical weapons is not clear and that the regime may be able to use some chemical agents, and the response might not be immediate," he said.

On Jan. 11, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey said that the U.S. government and the international community doesn't have the capability to prevent Assad from using chemical weapons if he chooses to do so.

"The act of preventing the use of chemical weapons would be almost unachievable... because you would have to have such clarity of intelligence, you know, persistent surveillance, you'd have to actually see it before it happened, and that's -- that's unlikely, to be sure," Dempsey said. "I think that Syria must understand by now that the use of chemical weapons is unacceptable. And to that extent, it provides a deterrent value. But preventing it, if they decide to use it, I think we would be reacting."

Abdo, the Syrian neurologist, said that the doctors treating civilians inside Homs have run out of even the basic medicines they have been using to bring a level of comfort to the victims, such as the drug atropine.

"We hope this information will reach the people in the American government so maybe they will help us," he said. "If the regime does this one more time, we don't have the antidote in our hands anymore and we can't treat it. It's very urgent."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1881999&forum_id=2#22439896)

Hundreds of Civilians Evacuated Over Weekend Despite Shelling of U.N. Convoy

By SAM DAGHER CONNECT

Updated Feb. 9, 2014 8:24 p.m. ET

A man waiting to be evacuated from a besieged district of Homs, Syria, on Sunday looked at a United Nations staff member inside a vehicle. Bassel Tawil/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

HOMS, Syria—Hundreds of the sick and starving trapped here by civil war were rescued this weekend after a United Nations convoy rolled through mortar shells and sniper bullets into this besieged city, setting a grim tone as peace talks resumed in Geneva on Monday.

The Syrian regime and opposition blamed each other for deadly attacks on the weekend operation, which was intended to build trust toward a diplomatic solution to the country's civil war, and the recriminations extended to the evacuation's ground rules.

In one instance, tensions flared at a makeshift receiving center for evacuees when soldiers discovered that about a dozen fighting-aged men were among those leaving. When the soldiers whisked them away into a government bus to be interrogated for suspected ties to rebel groups a shouting match erupted between a U.N. official and two security officials.

"There are men between the age of 16 and 54 that asked to leave and they are ready to regularize their status and they are also ready to bear the consequences if they are wanted by the law," Homs Governor Talal al-Barazi said.

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People leave Homs on Sunday. The regime and opposition blamed each other for attacks on a U.N. aid convoy. AFP/Getty Images

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France to Propose U.N. Resolution

The U.N.-led mission evacuated hundreds of civilians in the rebel-held old quarter of Homs and delivered aid and medicine to hundreds of others who remained trapped inside.

Still, the convoy's shelling amid a cease-fire cast a pall over the already volatile Geneva talks after a nearly two-week pause.

Both sides agree the talks should create a transitional government to end the nearly three-year-old conflict, but the opposition insists it be without President Bashar al-Assad, a scenario the regime rejects.

France plans to propose a United Nations Security Council resolution demanding the Assad regime allow humanitarian aid into besieged areas that have become flashpoints in Syria's civil war, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told local radio Monday.

Opposition activists said at least four civilians waiting to be evacuated were killed in mortar attacks on Sunday, shortly after the U.N. convoy entered the zone, and at least five were killed on Saturday amid intense shelling and sniper attacks.

In interviews, some U.N. employees and an aid worker blamed the attacks on forces loyal to Mr. Assad's regime, though the U.N. officially didn't cast blame. "It is deliberate targeting, which is unacceptable," said Valerie Amos, who heads the U.N.'s global relief efforts.

The regime said the attack was carried out by rebels who didn't want civilians to leave.

The U.N.'s top official in Syria, Yacoub El Hillo, who was part of the team attacked on Saturday, appeared to challenge the regime's assertions that rebels in Homs's old quarter were holding civilians as human shields and preventing them from leaving. "We spent 10 hours inside and saw nothing to indicate that," he told reporters.

A United Nations and Syrian Arab Red Crescent aid convoy is seen arriving along a street in Homs Saturday. Reuters

He also rejected accusations by Syria's government and security forces that a field hospital inside was only being used to treat combatants. "The impression that the field hospital is for armed people is untrue, there are civilian cases that will make your heart bleed, these are people waiting to die," he said.

One Western diplomat cautioned it was "important not to jump to conclusions about who was behind the attacks."

The three-day U.N.-led aid operation, which ended on Sunday, was intended to bring relief to the rebel-held old quarter, an area that has been under siege by pro-Assad forces for more than 18 months. The operation called for daily 12-hour cease-fires to permit the delivery of desperately needed food and medicine and the evacuation of people who want to leave.

U.S. officials on Sunday were struggling to get clarity on what had happened on the ground in Homs. "This just underscores how important a negotiated political transition is," a senior administration official said.

But many Syrian military and security officials said the U.N. operation was a public relations exercise by the international community that these people said they only helped carry out due to orders from Damascus.

Both Russia and Iran, the regime's main international patrons, have pressured the Assad regime to cooperate during the Geneva process, Western diplomats say.

"These are the orders of the leadership," said one senior Syrian officer, who said the U.N. was part of a "conspiracy" against Syria. "If it was up to me, I would not let any food in or allow anyone out."

Many Alawites in Homs, who belong to Mr. Assad's ruling sect, had said last month when the convoy was planned that it should be attacked. Most of the Shiite-affiliated Alawites here belong to a paramilitary group known as the National Defense Force that opposes the mainly Sunni-Muslim opposition.

Remaining opposition members in Homs's old quarter were fearful the regime intended to wage an all-out offensive after the civilian evacuation.

"This is forced displacement, we are demanding that the siege be lifted not people driven out," said Abu Bilal, an activist in the old quarter, in a Skype interview.

Sunday's events began shortly after midday when the U.N. and Syrian Arab Red Crescent vehicles drove to a front line separating government and rebel forces northwest of the city. They said they were determined to deliver the remainder of the food they had been prevented from taking on Saturday, which Mr. El Hillo called "a day in hell."

Previous Coverage

Violence Rocks Syrian City During Another Civilian Evacuation Attempt

Attempts to Send Food, Medicine to Besieged Homs Quarter Falter 1/27/2014

In Fight for Syria, Food and Medicine are Weapons 1/21/2014

Ahead of Syria Talks, Local Truces Falter 11/25/2013

Syria's Alawite Force Turned Tide for Assad 8/26/2013

Violence Spirals as Assad Gains 6/11/2013

In Qusayr, Signs of an Intensifying Holy War 6/6/2013

Multiple explosions went off ahead of them in a rebel-held area, sending dust and smoke into the air. No one from the U.N. or other aid agencies was harmed.

When the attacks stopped, the U.N. began organizing the evacuation of all civilians wanting to leave the besieged area with several chartered coach buses.

By nightfall on Sunday, a total of 611 people, including women, men and children, had been hauled out, bringing the total of those evacuated since Friday to almost 700. Before the evacuation the U.N. said it believed there were more than 2,500 civilians inside.

Many of the evacuees were taken to Waer, a trench-encircled neighborhood in Homs that the U.N. says houses about 400,000 displaced people from Homs province that government soldiers are restricting.

Mr. El Hillo said the 12 men who were whisked away were part of a group of 130 that were being held with their families at a school in a regime-controlled part of Homs where they were being interrogated.

The Syrian government said its accord with the U.N. gives it the right to question men of this age group to determine if they are wanted for links to armed groups. Those deemed guilty have a chance to seek amnesty if they renounce ties to the rebels, said Syrian government officials in Homs and the capital Damascus. A U.N. official acknowledged that arrangement.

Despite the weekend's events, delegations of the opposition and government were in Geneva on Monday for a second round of talks. Those first talks failed to secure an agreement from the regime on an interim government.

Instead, the U.N.'s special representative to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, focused on securing an agreement from both sides on providing safe passage for aid convoys to Homs.

"We will point out to Brahimi tomorrow the violations of the regime, to put that on record," said Monzer Akbik, a senior member of the opposition's delegation in Geneva. "But at the same time we came for a second round of talks to discuss the critical issue of transition and to see the regime's response. We know there will be disappointments, but we must pursue this to the end."

Western diplomats involved in the Geneva talks said they were monitoring the situation in Homs closely to see if the aid workers manage to complete their deliveries to besieged populations.

"So far, I'm not picking up any negative impact on the atmosphere in Geneva," the Western diplomat said.

Opposition delegates are trying to focus the talks on political transition, and they don't want to see the meetings become bogged down in arguments over what happened in Homs, according to an adviser to the opposition.

—Maria Abi-Habib, Joe Lauria, Stacy Meichtry and Siobhan Gorman contributed to this article.

Write to Sam Dagher at sam.dagher@wsj.com

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1881999&forum_id=2#24988722)

As with the takeover of Ramadi, the conquest of Palmyra is part of a regional strategy to connect the Iraqi and Syrian fronts into a single entity.

By Zvi Bar'el 01:50 25.05.15 0

The Islamic State’s capture of the town of Palmyra is another irreparable blow to one of the world’s most important cultural sites. According to reports from Syria, Islamic State fighters are already damaging antiquities, spreading concerns that ISIS will demolish a heritage that has survived for 2,000 years.

Over the past two days, more than 400 people have been killed in the town, and thousands more have been arrested by ISIS forces after Syrian army soldiers fled, even though they were better armed.

That’s how the Islamic State, shortly after capturing the city of Ramadi in Iraq, raked in huge amounts of ammunition and weapons stored in Syrian army depots. ISIS captured a logistical stronghold for the Syrian forces.

But as with the takeover of Ramadi, the conquest of Palmyra is part of a regional strategy to connect the Iraqi and Syrian fronts into a single entity. A look at the map explains the strategy: contiguous arteries between Ramadi in the east via the Syria-Iraq border crossing at Tanf. That’s the last crossing held by regimes forces — and from there it’s on to Palmyra, which straddles an important crossroads.

Palmyra sits on the main road to Deir al-Zur and Raqqa, which are under Islamic State control in the north, and the main road between Deir al-Zur and the major city of Homs in the west. Control of these roads cuts the Syrian army off from the main areas it still controls in the west. It leaves it only the western road network linking Damascus to the Qalamoun Mountains, and from there to the Latakia district, considered the regime’s main stronghold.

In the east, the capture of Ramadi blocks the Iraqi army and the Shi’ite militias under Iranian command from assisting the Sunni tribes. They also can’t fight to liberate Anbar Province, which borders Syria.

The method of capturing main roads and crossroads has been the Islamic State’s strategy since the beginning of the conquest of Iraq in June 2014. Back then, following the takeover of Mosul, Islamic State forces quickly took the main roads leading to western Iraq and the border crossings. They created regional contiguity before moving on to take the cities themselves.

This strategy requires the members of the Western coalition, especially the United States, to treat Iraq and Syria as one front rather than two separate theaters, each with its own rules. The United States regards Iraq as a battle zone outside the control of Baghdad, Tehran or Moscow, while the Syrian front is thought to require the coalition to tread lightly to avoid igniting an all-out conflict.

This distinction plays into the Islamic State’s hands, because ISIS takes advantage of restrictions on engaging it in Syria. It has thus created two logistical and economic fronts, one in Syria and one in Iraq. Even if one falls, the other will be able to supply it using the roads under its control.

That’s also why airstrikes on Islamic State installations aren’t too effective. U.S. Senator John McCain has said that 75 percent of the planes taking off to attack ISIS return with their bombs because of a lack of targets. McCain supports ground assaults with the participation of thousands of U.S. soldiers.

But even if a ground war is launched — such a decision seems unlikely at the moment — the Islamic State has already put up a defensive wall by connecting the two fronts, which makes cooperation between the Iraqi and Syrian armies very difficult.

ISIS’ next decision will thus be where to advance. Should it press east from Ramadi to Habbaniya and Baghdad’s outskirts, or extend its control to Syria, take Homs and from there on to the Lebanese border? The Islamic State must maintain itself economically, so it must keep on taking urban areas to profit from tax, commerce and ransom payments. It can’t waste too much time and effort on open areas.

Therefore Homs in Syria is likely to be a greater temptation than Habbaniya in Iraq. Moreover, on the Syrian front, the Islamic State can take advantage of the rivalries among the militias, and between them and the Syrian army and Hezbollah.

This array of forces could also force the Western coalition to change its policy toward the rebel militias. It could legitimize some of them, like the Al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front, to rally against the Islamic State.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1881999&forum_id=2#27958422)