Article: Russia has started losing the war in Ukraine - link
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: May 19th, 2025 5:41 PM Author: grizzly digit ratio goal in life
Argument
An expert’s point of view on a current event.
Russia Has Started Losing the War in Ukraine
The military tide may have turned against Putin.
By Michael Kimmage, director of the Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48945316) |
Date: May 19th, 2025 5:43 PM Author: Swashbuckling kitchen
To be fair,
Wow! Big, if true!
lmao
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48945322) |
Date: May 19th, 2025 5:56 PM Author: cowardly round eye
Here's the full article:
https://archive.ph/ROP3y
I think the worst thing for Russia is Ukraine's home grown drone industry. You can make a shitton of drones for the cost of one HIMARS, and it stimulates Ukraine's economy to boot.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48945350) |
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Date: May 19th, 2025 6:01 PM Author: Swashbuckling kitchen
To be fair,
CR
When you REALLY think about it, this war is not only getting better and better for Ukraine as time goes on, but it's actually becoming quite cheap for Ukraine to defend itself -- AND the expenses it's incurring to do so are actually stimulating it's economy. Meanwhile, Russia is getting rekt and falling further and further into ruin with every passing day.
... frankly it's a little bit "odd" that Zelenskyieve would even consider holding peace negotiations with Putin at this point, considering how well everything is trending for him, but I'm sure he has his reasons haha yeah haha. ;)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48945363) |
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Date: May 19th, 2025 7:45 PM Author: Swashbuckling kitchen
To be fair,
Well I would assume, given that when you REALLY think about it things are actually going pretty great for Ukraine right now on a bunch of different levels, that any peace proposal in which Zelenskieyve is required to cede any substantial amount of physical territory to Russia will be a non-starter. Why would a party negotiating from a position of relative strength which is only increasing with time ever agree to terms like that? It wouldn't make sense at all.
Do you agree?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48945547) |
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Date: May 20th, 2025 12:22 AM Author: Swashbuckling kitchen
To be fair,
Yes, despite being unironically literally thoroughly debunked at the highest levels, that "Russia Collusion" narrative still remains an article of faith among many on the Left in 2025.
Yes that's right -- the very same people who will scream at you until they're blue in the face about "total fucking idiots" who "mindlessly swallow misinformation just because it fits their worldview."
Also the very same polisci geniuses who just got their shit pushed in at every level in the last federal election, and have responded to that humiliating loss by... doubling and tripling down on the incredibly unpopular policies and positions that got thoroughly repudiated by the electorate, and angrily smearing anyone who dares to disagree with them as an "idiot" or a "bigot."
Yep, those guys.
LJL
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48946281) |
Date: May 19th, 2025 9:42 PM Author: pearl useless ceo place of business
"Its failure has been accompanied by enormous losses: an estimated 790,000 killed or injured since the beginning of the war (plus 48,000 missing), including more than 100,000 casualties this year alone. By the end of 2025, at this rate, Russia will have over a million casualties, and its strategic situation will not be any better than it was in 2022."
What an estimate
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48945947) |
Date: May 19th, 2025 9:56 PM Author: ruddy dead cumskin mad cow disease
The coverage of this war is so frustrating.
This article is mostly true - but it doesn't really touch on Ukraine's position.
Isn't Ukraine basically out of men? Seems like that's a relevant counterpoint.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48945977) |
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Date: May 19th, 2025 10:08 PM Author: Swashbuckling kitchen
To be fair,
*(((GAY JEWISH AMERICAN MSM NEWS OUTLET))) SHOTGUNS DOWN YOUR DOOR*
"Hey, you! Did you know that Russia has lost 800,000+ men so far in this war?! Probably more, to be honest... anyway, it's a total fucking bloodbath and an absolute disaster for them!!! They're megafukt!!!"
"Wow, yeah, I mean that seems like a ton of guys... btw how many Ukrainians have been killed so far?"
"Well you have to understand that it's very hard if not impossible to generate an accurate count for that sort of thing, due to 'the fog of war,' etc. In fact it's so difficult that we really don't want to speculate and throw out a number."
"No, I mean, OK, sure I get that -- but you rushed in here to give me a number for Russia, so idk just give me your best guess for Ukraine, too. If you *had* to make an educated guess. It seems very relevant."
"We don't want to speculate!"
"Just speculate. Go ahead. You shotgunned down my door to come lecture me about this, so I insist. Do it."
"Hmmm... OK, but just bear in mind, this is very imprecise and quite possibly inflated. If forced to guess, we would estimate ~30,000 Ukrainian casualties so far."
"Wait... seriously? You're telling me that you want me to believe that the Russians have been taking casualties at a fucking ~26:1 ratio for the last three years straight?! That sounds absolutely insane!"
"Yes."
"Uh, I mean... and wait, isn't the typical 'rule of thumb' that an invading army should anticipate taking losses at a ~3:1 ratio when drawing up their battle plans?"
"Yes."
"So you're saying that Russia is literally performing 8x worse than we might expect in a 'generic' war? That the casualty ratio in this war is a wild statistical outlier on an exponential level, even though this war features two Slav countries fighting each other (so little to no IQ disparity between the two fighting forces) and Russia is actually richer, more populated, and more militarily powerful than Ukraine... so if anything, taking those factors into account, we might logically expect that Russia would actually perform *better* than if it were merely fighting a 'generic' war in which it didn't necessarily hold all of those advantages over its opponent?"
"Yes."
"..."
"...hey, so anyway, did you know that Joe Biden has CANCER and Blondalf Drumpfth SAID A REALLY MEAN THING ABOUT HIM?!"
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48946003) |
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Date: May 19th, 2025 10:12 PM Author: Swashbuckling kitchen
To be fair,
Haha yeah I'm retarded and crazy
Btw which part of that fun little "crazy made up strawman" MSM narrative that I just typed out there in my insane delusions do you dispute is an actual talking point being pushed in the American MSM?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48946013) |
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Date: May 19th, 2025 10:16 PM Author: Swashbuckling kitchen
To be fair,
Yeah, I'm retarded + insane + stupid + poor etc etc etc, we know and also I'm gay and my name is Anthony "Tony" J. Zappin and I don't see my kids and I lost my law license, etc. Sad!
...but so which part(s) of my poast above do you dispute, though? We get it, I'm a complete faggot and a fool, but having gotten the obligatory ad hominems out of the way I don't see you actually attempting to substantively refute any of the allegations I'm making about the various ridiculous talking points the American MSM has been pushing about this war. Odd case.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48946025) |
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Date: May 19th, 2025 10:21 PM Author: Swashbuckling kitchen
To be fair,
CR
Wait but so which of the fake and gay imaginary strawmen MSM talking points that I clearly just hallucinated above do *you* claim that the American MSM hasn't actually been pushing?
(Assume before you answer that I have multiple links ready to drop that show MSM news sources pushing each and every one of them)
Or perhaps you just sincerely believe that Russia has indeed been taking ~26:1 casualties in this war for the last three years running?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48946033) |
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Date: May 20th, 2025 2:15 PM Author: Swashbuckling kitchen
To be fair,
CR I'm the absolute worst and frankly I should kill myself.
BTW which of the patently absurd alleged "MSM talking points" that I clearly just invented above for my screed do you think the (((American MSM))) *hasn't* actually pushed?
Can you identify any of those with specificity, now that we've established for the 100000th time that I suck shit and I'm a terrible retard, etc etc etc?
It's weird, this subthread is filling up with people who are jumping in to remind everyone that I'm a fag and an idiot who is wrong about everything etc... but no one has attempted to substantively dispute even a single one of the actual points that I raised above in my "unhinged" screed.
Odd case! Maybe you can be the first? :)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48947637) |
Date: May 19th, 2025 10:56 PM Author: lavender boiling water
ROFL@ shitcons believing EVERYTHING Putin says. Never change:
https://x.com/vanguardintel/status/1924581157598822619
This is how Putin buys some R&R time. Make Ukraine confused for a month at least.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48946110) |
Date: May 19th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: lavender boiling water
This is the thing that Russia just wrecked.
https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1896679474470789378
That was a big problem until they somehow hacked the network, which was distributed among 3 or 4 servers.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48946214) |
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Date: May 19th, 2025 11:38 PM Author: lavender boiling water
Looks like things started going to shit around May 10.
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1921674352744886419
It must be easy af for Russia to bribe these guys if Zelensky won't pay them.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48946216) |
Date: May 20th, 2025 12:38 AM Author: Heady Scarlet Goyim
In what way is this NOT a vietnam- or afghanistan- (their war or ours) like quagmire for russia? And I say that with the understanding that it's apparently not a big deal culturally or politically for them to lose over a million young men--so just thinking of the economic impact (which is not offset at all by the acquisition of the 2nd or 3rd poorest country in europe). They went from US-level interest rates to like 22% now.
The response ITT seems to focus on how it's going even worse for ukraine, which seems totally irrelevant to any conversation worth having in the US--like surveying a termite treatment for your house that left 10% of the termites uneradicated and saying "well lol we killed 90% of them so this went way worse for the termites than us."
I assume the TBF types will now disclaim this (likely in a flamingly homosexually catty sarcastic rant about the unreliability of any sources I could point to), but there were perfectly reputable, credentialed, and impartial defense experts who predicted that russia could wrap this thing up within months of the invasion, and that has obviously not been the result obtained.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48946299) |
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Date: May 20th, 2025 2:11 AM Author: Heady Scarlet Goyim
Okay but when I think of things that would make russia stronger, "more low-yield farmland" and "more natural resources" aren't on the list. They've got plenty of that shit already; their problem is that the only things made in russia in any of the homes I own are in the liquor cabinets.
Let's assume this works out fine for putin, personally--he stays super-popular and public support for the war is high. So what? It objectively weakens RUS, and the US death toll in this conflict remains steady at zero (0).
This has obviously not been a model for a subsequent invasion of poland (as some hysterical libs predicted in 2022, assuming a quick RUS victory in UKR), which would at least be a positive-value pickup.
And I don't know that I agree that the US would have benefitted from Vietnam x20 losses if only we'd been fighting to annex the southern third of manitoba instead of trying to contain communism abroad.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48946384) |
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Date: May 20th, 2025 10:40 AM Author: filthy hairy legs lay
Seem to be some pretty clear differences. eg, Vietnam was a war on this scale, but based on conscription and fought for no clear American interests.
As far as wars with a purpose go, this is pretty painless for Russia.
Put it against the cost of the US Civil War and it seems like noise.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5727429&forum_id=2#48946873)
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