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Linkedin (LNKD) stock thread
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Date: April 29th, 2012 5:27 PM Author: Confused Business Firm LNKD essentially hit a new high on Friday at 110. The company is valued over $11B and has a trailing P/E of 930. They're expected to earn 63 cents a share this year, implying a forward P/E of 175, and they're expected to earn $1.10 next year.
Although net income was $12M last year, insiders have cashed out over $400M. Meanwhile, stock and option grants to insiders continue, and shares outstanding are expected to continue to rise.
Linkedin has been around for years, but presumably now that it's IPOed management has decided to get more serious about making money. So, they've started to do things like this: http://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriabarret/2012/04/27/linkedin-selling-you-out/?partner=yahoofeed Will users tolerate this sort of thing?
Also, they're expanding their Silicon Valley office space by 50%. http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/blog/real-estate/2012/04/linkedin-signs-for-50-percent-more.html?ana=yfcpc They already have very high costs, IMO, and I suppose they think that they'll spend their way to profitability. This reminds me strongly of 1999, though we don't have a tightening Fed right now to burst the bubble.
Facebook is expected to IPO soon. I heard a rumor of May 17, but it could be June. I'm aware that some people have been rushing to buy LNKD in anticipation of excitement about Facebook's IPO. Perhaps others have been buying LNKD because they want to buy a social network but can't buy FB yet.
I was short LNKD last year around the first lockup expiration and made some big gains back then. I tried again in Jan/Feb and lost, and then I stayed away until a couple weeks ago when it hit 108. I should have known better a couple of weeks ago considering that the FB excitement is still building and earnings, which some people have also been getting excited about, are scheduled for May 3. However, once earnings pass and FB has its IPO, I see big drops in store as excitement wanes.
Does anyone here have any comments on the long-term value of Linkedin? Is it a great company that will quickly grow into its valuation, or is it basically only going to enrich insiders while leaving stockholders holding the bag? I know everyone seems to have a profile on the site, but it seems like nobody actually uses it beyond that. Do any of you get anything out of using Linkedin? |
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Date: May 11th, 2012 2:18 AM Author: bronze cocky rehab half-breed http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPmUsyvBFoQ&feature=related (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20667697) |
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Date: September 4th, 2013 11:36 PM Author: diverse maroon trailer park mental disorder lol good call dumbass (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#23994896) |
Date: April 29th, 2012 5:29 PM Author: Disturbing Contagious Indian Lodge I don't see any value in LinkedIn. I've never used it for anything important and I don't know anybody who has ever benefited from it in any significant way. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20574957) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 5:42 PM Author: wild step-uncle's house faggotry Lots of networking happens on linkedin, at least in the business world. I've had employees at client firms add me as a linkedin contact after a case, then message me about jobs weeks or months later. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20575032) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 7:51 PM Author: Disturbing Contagious Indian Lodge What field are you in? I know an MBB bro who was actually forced to create a profile, much to his chagrin.
I'd still say it's absurdly overvalued for just being an electronic business card. I don't really know much about LinkedIn's functionality, but from what I've seen they could be doing things a lot better. |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 12:24 PM Author: coral coffee pot plaza How does it compare to sites like Dice or Monster? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20604912) |
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Date: April 30th, 2012 10:30 AM Author: charismatic regret Many headhunters have found me via linkedin, and it's a good way to keep track of your network and see who is working where. Probably more of an MBA thing than a JD thingie. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20580591) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 12:24 PM Author: coral coffee pot plaza How does it compare to sites like Dice or Monster? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20604914) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 1:42 AM Author: Curious field Overvalued but it's getting to be the one stop shop for jobs. I get messages from recruiters very often on there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20611205) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 5:39 PM Author: Glittery dilemma Short (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20575017) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 5:41 PM Author: Confused Business Firm now?
edit: generally, I'm thinking of shorting the fuck out of it very soon |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 5:41 PM Author: Glittery dilemma no. buy long dated puts (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20575028) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 5:42 PM Author: Confused Business Firm I always deal with options. I'm thinking shorter-dated stuff for now. June could be a sweet spot. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20575033) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 5:49 PM Author: Glittery dilemma I think this social bubble has legs for another couple quarters. But after Facebook IPOs and earnings disappoint, it's all downhill from there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20575087) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 12:01 AM Author: Glittery dilemma ... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20610335) |
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Date: May 21st, 2012 9:59 AM Author: Glittery dilemma Pretty sure the IPO marked the top (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20735544) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 6:15 PM Author: citrine seedy institution incel Your a fuckin retard if you think you can time this. And that is assuming that the company can't grow into its valuation.
I personally have found LinkedIn incredibly valuable as a service. They don't just make money on advertisements, but on subscriber fees for more functionality. In addition, they are perfectly positioned to just dominate the classified market for job hiring.
Its the 21st fucking century, time has proven that websites can be valuable property, and the value is in how the organize the wealth of data the internet has made available.
Professionals today no doubt want/need an online identity that is separate from FB. And there will be no alternative to LNKD in the near future. The company already has too much traction and resources to poach any talent that crops up in the form of a start-up competitor.
high p/e is a necessary but hardly sufficient condition for an overvalued company. So thats just a stupid as fuck reason to short the company. Especially as the fundamentals are likely to continue to drive subscriber growth in the near future.
I actually recommended people close to me to purchase LNKD for all the reasons you cited back in January as a short term trade on the back of the FB hype and the fact that it is an actually useful service run by quality management.
Although, I would recommend anyone who has participated up until now to take profits and shift proceeds into something like a SINA. |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 6:24 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit Why SINA? What about SOHU or YOKU? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20575348) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 6:36 PM Author: citrine seedy institution incel Well, I say that just because I know it has sold off because of the Chinese government giving them a hard-time because their main property, Weibo (basically a chinese twitter, and probably the most popular "social network" in China) is sometimes used by Chinese citizens to actually talk openly and freely about how they feel about their government.
Last time I remember a stock was hit hard because of feeling the heat of the chinese government, it went on to do extremely well. That was Baidu in 2009 (it was about 12 dollars then).
They are just very far form their all time highs ($144) and as the most popular social network in china valued at less than 1/20 the value of facebook, I feel like the ceiling on their market cap has to be higher than $3.9B.
Let me qualify all of this by saying that I think many of these tech companies can be overvalued, and another bubble can very well emerge, but for now I think it is still early, and I am only recommending these as intermediate term (3-6 month) trades. Its a lot like hot potato. |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 6:29 PM Author: Confused Business Firm settle down, bro
Linkedin has been around for what, 9 years? And only now are they making any money to speak of? Doesn't seem like there's that much growth in store for them to me.
Tell me more about how you use Linkedin and why it's valuable to you.
I guess we'll see in a few years if they can justify their current valuation. |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 6:43 PM Author: citrine seedy institution incel I was considering attending an HYS for law, although I really wanted the degree to reset a TTT UG. I wanted to work in finance, and I was able to do a targeted search of HYS grads working in Investment Management, particularly in finance roles (thereby screening in-house counsels).
Through that I was able to find a guy who grew up in the same neighborhood as myself who graduated law school, worked at V5, then a major BB, and finally just recently started his own distressed debt hedge fund.
I found we had a mutual contact (linkedin made that information readily observable) and had a meeting with him a week later. Later offered me an internship (albeit unpaid). Never in a million and a half fucking years would I have been able to do that as easily as I did without LNKD.
Now I regularly surf LNKD to look for people who might be useful for informational interviews, etc. (Usually when I have something specific in mind.)
Edit: Also, in order to do such a targeted search LNKD very cleverly baited me into signing up for a pretty expensive subscription service to get the full functionality I needed to do such a targeted search.
They also price their different subscriptions based on how many times you can message someone outside of your direct network. |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 7:47 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Not saying the site doesn't have its uses, but I can't imagine that they'll end up making much money overall. Not that many people will pay for a subscription like you. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20576012) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 9:42 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit fyi, linkedin makes most of its money by selling recruiting and marketing services to companies, not from premium subscribers. the company has great growth potential. it's going to do over 800 million in revenue this year with about 150 million members. membership can easily double or triple in the next few years, which is only going to make other companies want to use linkedin's hiring and marketing services even more. i don't know whether the stock is overpriced or not, but as a company it has a solid business model. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20577157) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 9:43 PM Author: Disturbing Contagious Indian Lodge What data does an employer have access too? Most of the profiles I see are sparse and poorly organized. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20577175) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 9:46 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit i have no idea. i haven't used linkedin in that capacity. my guess is that there's probably enough information to identify promising candidates and narrow the search. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20577211) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 12:23 PM Author: coral coffee pot plaza How does it compare to sites like Dice or Monster? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20604911) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 12:49 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit it's not an online job board so it is not comparable to dice or monster. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605053) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 12:53 PM Author: coral coffee pot plaza huh? dice and monster feature job ads as well as professionals with their resumes. headhunters search through them to find fits. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605074) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 12:59 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit is there a networking aspect with connections and stuff? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605114) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 1:23 PM Author: coral coffee pot plaza no, but nobody's gotten a job though networking online.
linkedin revenue comes from companies, headhunters that pay to search through resumes and applicants that pay to get their resume highlighted or whatever, doesn't it?
i don't see how it's different from monster/dice. |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 1:27 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit yes, most of the revenue right now is coming from providing recruiting services to companies. LNKD also has ad revenue and subscription revenue.
one difference between monster/dice and LNKD is that LNKD has around 160 million members. |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 1:36 PM Author: coral coffee pot plaza meh, monster has 150mm resumes as well.
lnkd has so many bogus resumes and the vast majority are of ppl aren't looking for a job. with monster/dice you can easily filter to see who is actively looking for a job. lnkd is good for poaching ppl who are currently working for other companies but that's a much smaller market.
i'm actually involved with a recruiting company and they rely on monster/dice far more to the point where they decided it wasn't worth bothering with lnkd. almost all the jobs are in the tech field though. maybe that's the difference. |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 9:48 PM Author: citrine seedy institution incel I wasn't trying to make the point that their subscription model is what will carry them to the finish line, but the point was that they do offer a quality service that some people will pay for, and that their revenue stream isn't ONLY dependent on just "eyeballs".
It would be better to go out and short actually shitty companies. Like you could have done with RIMM a couple years back. I would keep a look out on MSFT. Windows is toast, and they keep throwing money at Bing and Windows phone. They also just opened a MSFT store in Palo Alto of all places and its a pathetic imitation of the Apple experience. Aside from their Office suite, I think MSFT just becomes increasingly less relevant.
Its hard to imagine corporate america shifting platforms though...but either way, MSFT can't continue to funnel profits from their Office cash cow into faggot catch-up attemps in search and mobile. |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 9:53 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit this is absurd. how is windows toast? windows 8 just got rave reviews. msft has a monopoly position in enterprise software. and despite the recent down-quarter, the xbox division is solidly profitable as the dominant gaming platform. if anything, msft is a bargain right now. revenues are growing solidly and the company has better profit margins than apple or google or IBM. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20577292) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 10:04 PM Author: citrine seedy institution incel Well ask yourself why MSFT made such a drastic change to Windows. The main reason is because they realize they need to play catchup now. If Windows 8 catches on, then fine. It very well might, but it is not a given and it is certainly a risk. If it flops, then the runway would be made even wider for AAPL to continue to take marketshare.
As per enterprise software, I completely agree. It is their true cash cow, however, when you are buying microsoft you are partially agreeing to funnel some of your Office profits into pathetic ventures like Bing and Windows Phone, that are ultimately risky bets.
As for Xbox, I have forgotten about that. And that is a good point, and another one of their good business lines. But how much does it actually generate in terms of their overall profitability?
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Date: April 30th, 2012 11:01 AM Author: well-lubricated drab dingle berry rigor http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/36011/Microsofts_Xbox_360_Division_Sees_132_Billion_Profit_For_Fiscal_Year_2011.php
1.32 billion in profit for FY2011 bro. |
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Date: April 30th, 2012 2:32 PM Author: citrine seedy institution incel so...about 5% of their net income? Also, the xbox is now a 7 year old product. Margins probably suck (I'm guessing) in the first few years of a new console rollout, and they are do for one. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20581889) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2012 11:50 AM Author: Peach swashbuckling church building new version How old r u little breh? You know this is exactly what they said about Pets.com and Webvan right? "They're positioned to be the ONLY pet food home delivery service!" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20596413) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 5:45 PM Author: jet soul-stirring potus reading party LOL xoxo shitheads who know nothing about stocks or investing = mad as FUCKKKKKKKKK; move onto calling for Facebook to go out of business by 2015. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20575060) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 5:46 PM Author: Confused Business Firm go on (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20575064) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 6:01 PM Author: irradiated corner what u think about CJEL breh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20575164) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 6:07 PM Author: Confused Business Firm that doesn't seem to be a valid symbol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20575205) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 6:16 PM Author: irradiated corner lol sorry, CJES. http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:CJES (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20575299) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 6:22 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit i've been watching the natural gas sector here and there since the beginning of the year. natural gas prices have plummeted so companies in this sector are trading at absurdly low multiples right now. i'm not sure if natural gas demand will ever come back to drive prices up again. how much of the prices are because of the warm winter vs discovery of new reserves? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20575334) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 6:30 PM Author: Confused Business Firm no clue about cjes really, but energy seems like a reasonable thing to invest in to me (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20575401) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 12:32 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit are you going to try a CJES earnings play? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20643961) |
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Date: May 10th, 2012 3:38 PM Author: irradiated corner I did, it went up nicely today (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20661953) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 8:10 PM Author: orchid whorehouse haunted graveyard lnkd is becoming the fastest growing job board. i wouldn't short.
Whenever a corporate professional gets laid off, they pony up $30/month to push their resume to the top of the pile. Lnkd sells hope to the mass of layed off thousands/millions. They are also one of the few portals for companies to enter the social networking arena respectfully.
(
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Date: April 29th, 2012 8:12 PM Author: Curious field I've noticed this as well. It's becoming a GOOD alternative to the horrible nearly useless "apply online" job market from the past decade (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20576212) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 9:50 PM Author: citrine seedy institution incel well put (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20577253) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 8:03 PM Author: Autistic Smoky Genital Piercing Locus what about ladders.com (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20607956) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 9:46 PM Author: Provocative Sickened Set Milk the accounting LNKD's management uses is interesting to say the least. i dont know if that's an impetus for a short but it definitely bears further research. accounting shenanigans are always a big red flag. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20577208) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 9:51 PM Author: Disturbing Contagious Indian Lodge EXPLAIN (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20577268) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 9:53 PM Author: Provocative Sickened Set Milk some good points here: http://blogs.smeal.psu.edu/grumpyoldaccountants/archives/604#more-604
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Date: April 29th, 2012 9:52 PM Author: citrine seedy institution incel this is certainly true. I have not done any real due diligence on their valuation or accounting.
If you have the skill set and patience this is a very credited approach for developing a short thesis. |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 9:56 PM Author: Provocative Sickened Set Milk whats your background, man? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20577328) |
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Date: April 29th, 2012 10:21 PM Author: citrine seedy institution incel Don't want to out myself but I'll tell you that I am a 0l HYS. With some finance experience.
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Date: April 30th, 2012 10:24 AM Author: Provocative Sickened Set Milk Are we friends? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20580566) |
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Date: April 30th, 2012 2:28 PM Author: citrine seedy institution incel Dont think so (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20581847) |
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Date: April 30th, 2012 10:50 PM Author: Provocative Sickened Set Milk wtf brah (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20585665) |
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Date: April 30th, 2012 1:54 AM Author: Confused Business Firm Not to mention that the corporate governance is abysmal: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/05/12/a-deeper-look-at-linkedins-structure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20579650) |
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Date: April 30th, 2012 10:23 AM Author: Confused Business Firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20580560) |
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Date: April 30th, 2012 10:26 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit so are you shorting LNKD again? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20580578) |
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Date: April 30th, 2012 10:28 AM Author: Confused Business Firm yes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20580587) |
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Date: April 30th, 2012 10:33 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit gl bro. you'll know on thursday whether this was a good idea or not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20580602) |
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Date: April 30th, 2012 10:29 AM Author: Histrionic Nursing Home Fortuitous Meteor I ain't gonna even pretend to know about the stock but I do know that while most of our generation thinks it's stupid, LinkedIn is beloved by Olds and HR people. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20580588) |
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Date: April 30th, 2012 10:36 AM Author: Confused Business Firm good point about the olds. they're also the ones with money to buy the stock. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20580612) |
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Date: April 30th, 2012 10:42 AM Author: bateful cruise ship crotch I'd try and play this one based on an event catalyst. I.E Facebook IPO causing LNKD in movement (up or down, I think that a lot of money is going to get out of LNKD in and into facebook) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20580633) |
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Date: April 30th, 2012 10:45 AM Author: Confused Business Firm best call is probably to go short the day before fb ipo then get out a week later (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20580641) |
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Date: November 7th, 2013 8:32 PM Author: Racy tan love of her life HOLY FUCK nice "play" on LNKD hope everybody caught this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#24393319) |
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Date: April 30th, 2012 11:08 AM Author: Bearded kitty as you said, their costs are entirely too high
compare this to facebook, which has incredible profit margins and still only makes 50 cents/user/year. there's obviously more opportunity for linkedin to make more $/user, but even then its going to take linkedin a shitload of paid subscribers to achieve anywhere near their valuation |
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Date: April 30th, 2012 2:09 PM Author: Confused Business Firm I'm pretty confident they'll piss away nearly all their profits before shareholders see any. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20581647) |
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Date: May 1st, 2012 12:01 PM Author: dull passionate patrolman are you gonna wait until after Q1 earnings to buy puts? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20588809) |
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Date: May 1st, 2012 2:32 PM Author: Confused Business Firm no, before (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20589667) |
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Date: May 1st, 2012 2:33 PM Author: dull passionate patrolman that shit cray. might ride with you though |
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Date: May 1st, 2012 2:34 PM Author: Confused Business Firm To be fair, my record on predicting reactions to earnings isn't that good. Still, I have to think that runaway costs at Linkedin are going to start to look bad to people. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20589687) |
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Date: May 1st, 2012 2:36 PM Author: dull passionate patrolman im still ridin' (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20589699) |
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Date: May 1st, 2012 2:47 PM Author: dull passionate patrolman mays or junes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20589760) |
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Date: May 1st, 2012 3:16 PM Author: Confused Business Firm right now I have some Mays, and I'm eyeing weeklies (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20589932) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2012 11:37 AM Author: dull passionate patrolman so far so good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20596371) |
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Date: May 1st, 2012 12:47 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit Anybody see what happened to HLF today after David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital asked the company about its 10K disclosures? Stock down about 18%. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20589040) |
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Date: May 1st, 2012 1:10 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit this is an interesting story, brothers. http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/05/01/the-einhorn-herbalife-exchange-transcript/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20589129) |
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Date: May 1st, 2012 2:33 PM Author: Confused Business Firm interesting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20589682) |
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Date: May 1st, 2012 3:04 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit was waiting for you to chime in. is this panicked selling? i thought herbalife gave a good answer to Einhorn's question about the classification of distributors. it also beat estimates. i really don't know what's happening here. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20589846) |
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Date: May 1st, 2012 3:19 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Don't know much about the company, but Herbalife is a high-flyer that's up 10-fold since 2009 and sounds a bit like a consumer fad to me. The fact that famous short-seller Einhorn is interested at all is a bad sign. The fact that it's plunging isn't really a surprise, even with supposedly good earnings.
edit: 2009, not 1999 |
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Date: May 2nd, 2012 10:28 PM Author: Confused Business Firm So I've gone heavily short. Taking the biggest risk here since calling the VXX crash back in March. Weeklys and Mays. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20600872) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 11:25 AM Author: dull passionate patrolman yny (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20604577) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 11:29 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit gl man. what's the secret to betting on earnings? it seems like a huge gamble to me. accepting the premise that you aren't insider trading, where do you look for news, signs, rumors, etc about what the earnings will look like? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20604596) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 12:03 PM Author: Confused Business Firm It is a huge gamble. I don't have any secret. I'm just trying to gauge sentiment and figure out if expectations are too high or not. For LNKD at the previous earnings announcement, expectations weren't way too high and the stock went up afterward. This time, people seem to be entirely too excited about LNKD. I base this on what the stock and option prices have done and articles I happen to see and message board posts. I don't have much independent analysis about earnings themselves, but I've seen indications that costs are going to be quite high this quarter. Also, I think the job market got a little weaker at the end of the quarter. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20604786) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 11:46 AM Author: bateful cruise ship crotch Thinking of going short today. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20604699) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 1:20 PM Author: orchid whorehouse haunted graveyard the overall market is about to go sour.. time is as good as any.. im short bac, ms, stra... waiting to long leveraged treasuries (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605237) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 2:55 PM Author: Racy tan love of her life I disagree. Its too obvious. market has been up/down/up/down/up/down for couple weeks now. I don't think the summer decline has started. We kicked summer off with a solid week of selling last year but even with the downs of last month we haven't seen that kind of consistent selling yet. Many of the down days so far have started out so because of news only. Once the market has a good solid rally for a week or two then I think we see the sell. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605742) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 7:47 PM Author: orchid whorehouse haunted graveyard i expect it to railroad for a month or so then plunge when the momentum is exhausted (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20607836) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 1:27 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Just sold some weekly 95 puts (at 2.3 and mostly at 2.45--a good price I think) to offset my other weeklies and reduce risk. Here's my current position:
+35 weekly 105 puts +60 weekly 100 puts -95 weekly 95 puts
+60 may 95 puts -40 may 85 puts
Also bought weekly spy 139 puts and weekly vxx 17 calls today in expectation of a bad jobs number tomorrow. I think the market is not going to be happy tomorrow. |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 1:29 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit i admire your conviction breh. i'm thinking about going long INVN in anticipation of a good earnings report today but i'm scurred as fukk. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605296) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 4:23 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit made a small INVN long play at $16.18. Trading at $17.25 AH. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606316) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 4:53 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit now the stock is imploding. wtf (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606481) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 1:43 PM Author: Confused Business Firm I'm sad about missing out on the drops in RGR and SODA today. Those are on my shorting list too. GMCR was on my shorting list too, but I hadn't really looked at it as hard. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605349) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 1:49 PM Author: bateful cruise ship crotch Ya that is annoying when it happens, but at the wrong time.
Are you buying to any VIX stuff? I'm thinking about taking a long position in that just to protect my non options portfolio. |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 1:50 PM Author: Confused Business Firm I generally like shorting VXX.
Today, however, I am long. |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 1:57 PM Author: bateful cruise ship crotch I've been looking at some pretty interesting stuff from a long perspective especially with companies like NTDOY and ATVI. Like for ATVI if you pry into the balance sheet you see some really really solid stuff and brand value, good amounts of cash and just steady as hell performance. I was thinking about buying JAN 13 Calls at 12.50 or maybe even selling some OTM puts.
I'm also thinking about getting on the GMCR/HLF ride, but there is a chance the strangle premium is going to fuck up any profits because of the large coverage. |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 2:05 PM Author: Confused Business Firm I was actually long ATVI for a while last year and had NTDOY on my long list. Those two are solid, IMO.
Skylanders is rather underrated for ATVI, by the way. |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 2:07 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit i was eyeing ATVI heavily last year. it has great fundamentals. it came up repeatedly in my stock screeners for growth, margins, etc but i feel like the stock has gone nowhere. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605479) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 2:09 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Yep. I lost some and got out. Still, if you want something to buy and hold for a while it looks pretty good to me. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605482) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 2:07 PM Author: Confused Business Firm I hate getting into things like GMCR and HLF after they've made huge moves because the options become so fucking expensive. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605478) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 2:31 PM Author: Jet-lagged Forum Filthpig made 3% on vxx today. ty breh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605577) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 1:50 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit in other Einhorn news HLF continues its precipitous decline. it's trading at an attractive multiple now. of course i wouldn't touch this stock with a ten foot pole until i knew whether Einhorn has taken a short position or not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605389) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 1:51 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Pretty soon they'll be saying that about fucklaw. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605394) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 2:11 PM Author: Confused Business Firm About 2 hours until the earnings release, bros. This could be embarrassing and costly if LNKD does well and goes up after hours. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605492) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 2:22 PM Author: bateful cruise ship crotch Fuck me in the ear those puts are expensive. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605525) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 2:28 PM Author: Confused Business Firm They've gone up a lot today. Good thing I bought mine yesterday (and earlier in the week). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605564) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 2:50 PM Author: irradiated corner Want to make a guess at EPS? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605698) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 3:08 PM Author: Confused Business Firm nope (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20605829) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 3:33 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Quite a spike up now. Longs getting excited about earnings?
My overall impression is that longs are more excited about these earnings than shorts. I find that if people are very excited ahead of earnings, they are often disappointed. |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 3:35 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit i've been reading that the price has strong earnings built in. the theory is that unless LNKD puts up mindblowing numbers, the stock is falling in AH trading.
this is exciting. |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 3:41 PM Author: Confused Business Firm that's my theory, anyway. no guarantees though--it's a fairly crowded short play too (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606056) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 3:49 PM Author: Confused Business Firm looks like the spike was due to the release of facebook ipo details (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606108) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 3:42 PM Author: electric idiot range Wait, how does LinkedIn make money? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606066) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 3:43 PM Author: Confused Business Firm by selling stock, apparently (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606068) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 3:53 PM Author: coral coffee pot plaza lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606135) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 3:55 PM Author: electric idiot range ty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606145) |
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Date: October 9th, 2014 4:23 PM Author: electric idiot range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#26487052) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 3:57 PM Author: irradiated corner By selling subscriptions to get access to more info and the ability to message people outside of your network.
LinkedIn is far more useful to me than facebook, when I actually use it. It's also becoming the place to look for jobs, in certain fields at least. The big job sites like Monster, Careerbuilder etc are just filled with garbage.
The subscription is worth it and I will probably get it at some point.
The site is useful and has a good business model. That has nothing to do with whether the stock is overvalued or not, though. |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 3:58 PM Author: electric idiot range lol, if you say so, bro (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606173) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 4:16 PM Author: Fishy Appetizing Hominid Stag Film Beat estimates. Up 10% AH
Ouch |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 4:18 PM Author: Confused Business Firm *sigh*
however, I've seen companies "beat" estimates plenty of times but plunge anyway. the initial 5 min reaction may be premature |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 4:21 PM Author: Fishy Appetizing Hominid Stag Film Do tech companies in their infancy offer EPS guidance? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606309) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 4:23 PM Author: Fishy Appetizing Hominid Stag Film "Expects Q2 revenue of $210M-$215M and 2012 revenue of $880M-$900M, above a consensus of $207.9M and $876.8M."
Guess you're SOL.
(I take no delight in your misfortune, bro. I've been on the shitty end of that stick) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 4:21 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit fuck bro. sorry. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606307) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 4:18 PM Author: arousing abode I tried playing this myself, bought 3 contracts now I'm out $1000. Fuck fucklaw. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606288) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 4:20 PM Author: Confused Business Firm the company is still a bubble and is still barely making any money. it may just not be time yet, but it will pop at some point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606303) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 4:22 PM Author: arousing abode you had one good call on silver last year man. since then you've been losing everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606314) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 4:28 PM Author: Confused Business Firm 2 good calls on silver, then a good call on lnkd last year, and a good call on vxx in march. If LNKD stays here tomorrow, I'm down about $20-30k (5-7%) on the year. Clearly underperforming the market, but I'm used to the ups and downs, and I'm still confident that the ups will outweigh the downs.
LNKD is still an amazing short, and in fact it may be a great short tomorrow in particular as implied volatility plunges.
People shorting the dotcom bubble in 1999 or mortgage backed securities in 2005 were wrong for a while, but if they kept at it and made sure they could remain solvent until they were right, they ended up making a killing. I'm confident LNKD is at least 3-fold overvalued, and probably much much more. |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 4:24 PM Author: Fishy Appetizing Hominid Stag Film Yeah but your options will expire before it pops (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606326) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 4:29 PM Author: Confused Business Firm I know, I probably lost this round. I'll try again.
lol @ $5M GAAP net income this quarter justifying a $13B market cap |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 4:27 PM Author: dull passionate patrolman glad i copped dem junes. still, fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606344) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2012 4:28 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit what strike price? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20606348) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 1:40 AM Author: citrine seedy institution incel Told you so. Brehs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20611197) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 11:44 AM Author: Chest-beating Snowy Pocket Flask Mad-dog Skullcap Fucklaw: Sorry bro.. at least you hedged (a bit). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20612991) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 1:23 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Saved myself $23K that way. Obviously I'm down today, but I don't feel too bad being down $27k when I could have made $50-70k if LNKD had gone to 95--I think the risk/reward was there overall. LNKD plunged after the earnings report in November, after all. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20613504) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 12:13 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit i got destroyed on INVN despite the company hitting earnings and beating revenues. stock down about 20%. fml
thinking about a CJES earnings play next week. stock looks good. really cheap right now. |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 1:20 PM Author: Confused Business Firm That's the sort of thing I was thinking might happen to LNKD--beat expectations but still drop.
LNKD's time will come. Management is entrenched and corrupt. Accounting is fishy. They're giving out stock left and right to insiders. The company has been around for 9 years--this is no new startup--and P/E is 900 or so.
I'm going to try again. Next major event is the Facebook IPO, which I think will cause a drop in LNKD that day and in the weeks following. There may, however, be a runup in LNKD just prior to the FB IPO. Once FB IPOs, I think LNKD gets hammered. |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 1:22 PM Author: Flirting brunch ratface they have no real competitiors in their market. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20613495) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 1:33 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Too bad they hardly make any money despite that.
Let's ignore management's outrageous spending and dilution for a moment and just look at revenues. LNKD is projected to get about $900M in revenues this year, giving it a forward P/S ratio over 13. Even if they grow spectacularly (and remember, they've been around for 9 years) over the next two years and quadruple their revenues, their P/S ratio at that time will still be over 3--still a very high number.
So, if everything goes right they'll still be overvalued by 50% two years from now? And, remember, this doesn't even account for further dilution and extreme spending. No thanks.
Right now they're about 10-fold overvalued. I don't think there's a better short out there.
Obviously I was too early here, but shorting LNKD once it got back in the 100s was just too tempting. This is an extreme bubble that could plunge at any time. |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 2:24 PM Author: orange mexican Hey bros, let's look long term. It's 2017. Chances Facebook has bought LinkedIn? At what price? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20613855) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 2:29 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Doesn't seem like FB would be interested in LNKD to me--FB already has a more extensive network, and they could start their own professional profile section.
FB itself could be much smaller in 2017 than it is today. FB is no Google and has probably already peaked. |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 2:34 PM Author: irradiated corner I doubt it. "Social networking" will be passe by then and LinkedIn will almost be more of an enterprise solutions company. I bet they will work to show big corps they can use LinkedIn as their primary hiring platform.
I have a lot more faith in LinkedIn long term than FB. FB is dealing with finnicky consumers, and the valuable users are using it less and less, usage will quickly be dominated by the people nobody wants to hear from.
I think FB is just another AOL. Would not be long on a 5yr horizon at all. I give them credit though, they've timed their IPO well for all the insiders and early investors to profit immensely. |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 3:03 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit it's way too early to tell what's going to happen with these companies. think about it this way. total online ad spend is going to continue to increase and could easily play into facebook's advantage. this is a nascent industry and i would be very cautious about making big bets on its demise. there is lower hanging fruit out there. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20614103) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 3:49 PM Author: Autistic Smoky Genital Piercing Locus lol at trying to time the market without inside info. y'all are like chickens with their heads chopped off (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20614388) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 5:08 PM Author: Confused Business Firm LNKD's book cooking can't last forever: http://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/t5nr5/lnkds_legal_bookcooking_cant_last_forever/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20614891) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 5:18 PM Author: irradiated corner This is another point I wanted to make before the earnings came out but didn't because I'm beta.
LNKD mgmt KNEW this earnings report had to be good because it was right before the FB IPO. If LNKD went sour this quarter, it would lose favor and everyone would dump to go into FB. There's lots of games that can be played to make one quarter look good. |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 5:28 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Yeah, I know, and I knew it before earnings too actually. I fully expected them to beat expectations. I suppose I shouldn't be a dumbass and short if I expect an earnings beat, but I thought that beating expectations still wouldn't be enough. I thought that just getting more numbers out would make it more clear to people that this thing is extremely overvalued, plus the level of long excitement seemed to be just too much ahead of earnings. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20615047) |
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Date: November 11th, 2014 4:29 PM Author: canary ticket booth Date: May 4th, 2012 5:08 PM Author: "'"''''''"'''
LNKD's book cooking can't last forever: http://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/t5nr5/lnkds_legal_bookcooking_cant_last_forever/
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20614891) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 5:40 PM Author: up-to-no-good marvelous meetinghouse sex offender fuck timing the mkt. after winning and losing absurd amounts of money, i believe the credited investment strategy is boring, stable companies. i'm done chasing w/ leverage.
(saying this w/ $10K tied up in options) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 6:38 PM Author: orchid whorehouse haunted graveyard i hear you bro... my big losses are w/ options
(says the person who just put a crapload in leveraged treasuries today) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 7:04 PM Author: Confused Business Firm honestly, the problem with boring, stable companies (or investing in stocks for the long term in general) tends to be that management takes most or all of the winnings for themselves. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20615623) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 7:12 PM Author: Wonderful Fighting Factory Reset Button Theater Stage management compensation is almost always a miniscule percentage of corporate profit. the bigger problem is that long-term expected return of equities has declined with the slowing of GDP growth (this had been happening well before the recession) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20615658) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 7:31 PM Author: Adventurous menage antidepressant drug just do emerging markets bro (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20615811) |
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Date: May 4th, 2012 7:42 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Well, I'm not so sure about that considering how little of those profits ever get back to shareholders in the form of cash. Direct management compensation may not be a huge percentage (though I think this is an important part of the problem), but management is damn sure not to actually give much to shareholders. Management always finds ways to spend and dilute, often in ways that benefit themselves and their friends, whether or not that shows up directly as management compensation.
Show me dat expected future cash flow. |
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Date: May 7th, 2012 3:35 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Well, today is a little more like it at least. Holding some 105 and 115 puts for this week right now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20636470) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 10:08 AM Author: Confused Business Firm lol @ LNKD (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20643056) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 10:16 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit lol @ my portfolio. getting reamed today. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20643101) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 10:17 AM Author: Confused Business Firm I copped dat negative delta and am actually up over $100K today.
likely to end up losing some or most of the gains, but for now I'll ride it |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 10:20 AM Author: Confused Business Firm oh look, now +$120k (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20643128) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 10:29 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit wtf? how much did you invest to be up that much? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20643175) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 10:32 AM Author: Confused Business Firm about $40k I think (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20643200) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 11:40 AM Author: Confused Business Firm just went short vxx now. back to 17 likely this week.
just watching lnkd today so far |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 11:47 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit what's the thesis? it feels like volatility is just starting to ramp up. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20643644) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 11:49 AM Author: Confused Business Firm entirely possible, but I start getting interested in shorting when spot VIX gets above 20.
these spikes do tend to go on longer than I expect, but right now it seems like it may be over to me |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 11:51 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit ballsy move to short vxx when it's already at historically low levels. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20643668) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 11:52 AM Author: Confused Business Firm vix futures aren't all that low, even is VXX is, but VXX's apparently low level is due to long-term contango effects
edit: shorting VXX on spikes is one of my favorite things, but right now it's going against me and I'm wondering if perhaps the spike wasn't over yet. the chart had a very nice spiking then dropping pattern earlier today, but since then it's been coming back and may be about to go up more. I generally find that I'm a little too early in jumping on the vxx shorts |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 11:50 AM Author: bateful cruise ship crotch Ah man we were a few months too early on RGR
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Date: May 8th, 2012 11:51 AM Author: Confused Business Firm oh fuck man, those puts must be up so much today--they would have been very cheap prior to this drop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20643675) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 12:11 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Not enjoying the bounce from 101.5 to 105.5 (now up $95k today from a peak of $190k). seems to have been an upward trend since 11AM. volume has dried up a lot over the last half hour.
been considering lightening my position a bit, but I think today's drop may have more to go from here. I think I'll wait and see if we drop near the close like yesterday. not sure whether to keep all of my current position through tomorrow or sell about half today |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 1:29 PM Author: bateful cruise ship crotch where are you stopped out? There is a lot of elasticity to LNKD surprisingly, I think that the real moves are going to come in the aftermath of the facebook IPO as shareholder capital gets reallocated into a more pure play social media investment. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20644245) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 1:50 PM Author: Confused Business Firm No hard stops, just watching it. I do occasionally stop myself out of positions, which happened significantly with LNKD back in November when it bounced from 55 to 65, but right now I'm not really thinking of doing that. That was a clear short squeeze. I'm not quite sure what's going on today after the drop.
Most, but not all, of my gains today have evaporated. The very large bounce here all the way to 109 is certainly surprising.
I am still considering lightening my position a bit, but not until near the close probably. |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 2:24 PM Author: Confused Business Firm ok, ok, now I'm thinking of throwing in the towel on about half of this position (mostly the 105 puts). this has been a ridiculous rise over the last few hours. lol @ me (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20644504) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 2:29 PM Author: Confused Business Firm lol :( just got out of all weekly positions and am now flat on the day
crazy |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 2:32 PM Author: Confused Business Firm I'll be reloading on this one again, of course, but I don't want to be caught in it for long while it's going up. I do remember the bounce from 55 to 65--it immediately proceeded to 75 after I got out, and I would have been pretty wiped out if I'd stayed in.
edit: great, I think I just caused/bought during a short capitulation spike, and now it's coming back down a bit |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 2:37 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit what brokerage do you use? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20644601) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 2:38 PM Author: Confused Business Firm optionshouse and td ameritrade (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20644605) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 2:48 PM Author: irradiated corner you didn't take profit at 190k on the day?!
what was your maximum downside risk on your original play? |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 2:51 PM Author: Confused Business Firm nope, I didn't. I can see LNKD plunging far lower than 101.5 when it does go, and it didn't look like a real selling climax exactly.
about $40k I think.
currently in some june 95/90 and 95/85 spreads. no weeklies
still short vxx with a weekly 17/18 spread. at least that's working out so far
edit: bought a small position of lnkd 110 weeklies a few mins before the close. couldn't resist really--big plunges still seem imminent here, though I am afraid of more upward spiking first. seems like LNKD could go nuts either way in the days before the FB IPO (followed by more plunges afterward) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 3:23 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Honestly really hard to believe this is up on the day now after the drop in the morning. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20644900) |
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Date: May 8th, 2012 10:46 PM Author: Confused Business Firm bros, today was nuts (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20648606) |
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Date: May 9th, 2012 12:07 PM Author: Confused Business Firm http://seekingalpha.com/article/572341-explaining-an-unjustifiable-valuation-why-wall-street-is-incentivized-to-prop-up-linkedin?source=yahoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20652706) |
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Date: May 9th, 2012 12:16 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit why don't you buy some long-term puts? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20652772) |
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Date: May 9th, 2012 12:42 PM Author: Confused Business Firm For one thing, I think major drops are imminent--within a few weeks maybe. Also, my largest position right now is in Junes (somewhat longer-term than this weekly bullshit anyway). Farther out and the puts seem to get really expensive to me. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20652944) |
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Date: May 9th, 2012 1:20 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit what would the catalyst be for such a price correction? the facebook IPO? a downturn in the overall market? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20653144) |
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Date: May 9th, 2012 1:28 PM Author: Confused Business Firm facebook ipo mainly.
exuberance in LNKD is pretty extreme right now, sometimes these things pop without an obvious catalyst too
edit: got out of shorting vxx with a small profit. waiting until the spike seems more obviously over |
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Date: May 10th, 2012 4:04 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit i'm beginning to think the facebook IPO will lift all tech stocks, at least temporarily. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20662162) |
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Date: May 10th, 2012 6:49 PM Author: Confused Business Firm my thought is that it is currently keeping certain things up right now, and it may keep doing so until it actually happens. once the FB IPO happens, look out below.
this may of course mean that I'm premature to be shorting, but these things can break earlier than expected too |
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Date: May 10th, 2012 3:37 PM Author: Confused Business Firm IV of 42-ish in the weekly 110 puts (expiring tomorrow) make them look like a good buy right now. you could buy calls too if you just want to go long volatility here. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20661944) |
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Date: May 11th, 2012 2:18 AM Author: Confused Business Firm I believe you could have picked up some of the 110 puts when I posted this at 75 cents--definitely a reasonable price if you're into this sort of thing. I managed to get some at 55 cents today, and somewhat less fortunately I got some earlier in the day at $1. We'll see what they do tomorrow. Perhaps the market as a whole will meltdown, causing LNKD to go with it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20667693) |
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Date: May 11th, 2012 10:48 AM Author: Confused Business Firm managed to get out of these near the open for a decent profit. boy have they fallen fast in the last half hour
still think a dramatic 5-10% down day is in store for LNKD soon (kind of like Tuesday, only without the sharp recovery) |
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Date: May 11th, 2012 4:02 PM Author: Confused Business Firm well damn, would have made a ton more if I'd held on to those (or bought more midday at a lower price, which I strongly considered)
up 11k today though, so I can't complain too much. back to positive for the month by 7k despite lnkd being up in that time and despite getting pwned by earnings.
next week will be key though. if things go perfectly, lnkd will go below 95 for me and I'll make a huge killing. I have some spreads that pay off 7-fold if that happens. |
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Date: May 11th, 2012 11:42 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit looks like some of the stocks that got oversold this past week are finally starting to rally. should've bought yesterday. oh well.
What are the odds the market tanks during the last 2 hours of trading today? |
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Date: May 11th, 2012 1:11 PM Author: Confused Business Firm doesn't seem all that likely to me (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20669664) |
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Date: May 11th, 2012 4:03 PM Author: Confused Business Firm looks like you were basically right, though not exactly tanking--just a steady downward trend all afternoon. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20670690) |
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Date: May 11th, 2012 4:27 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit http://www.thestreet.com/story/11529727/1/linkedin-is-a-glorified-rolodex.html?kval=dontmiss
fucklaw, are you going to continue to buy weekly puts on LNKD? |
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Date: May 11th, 2012 4:40 PM Author: Confused Business Firm some weekly, some longer (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20670958) |
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Date: May 15th, 2012 3:01 PM Author: Confused Business Firm FB IPO drop began about an hour ago, IMO. Time to pile in short.
I think it'll fall more the next few days for the following reasons:
1. Many traders have jumped into LNKD hoping to play the excitement over the FB IPO. These people will exit either just after or just before the FB IPO.
2. FB IPO will actually take dollars away from LNKD investment. FB is LNKD's closest stock market competitor, and dollars will start flowing FB's way on Friday.
I figure the drop will start a couple days before the actual IPO as people free up cash and as traders already start to get out of the speculative FB excitement-based positions prior to the FB IPO. |
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Date: May 17th, 2012 10:52 AM Author: Confused Business Firm well bros, I was a day early, annoying the fuck out of me, but here it is. currently in the 107s. I'm still looking for more down from here as well, but it's certainly risky.
after all this time since the beginning of the month (pre-earnings until now) I'm flat after some big ups and downs. considering I've been a net buyer of short-term options, I don't feel too bad considering that LNKD is also flat in that time, so at least I've managed to counteract theta while staying short most of the time. too bad I blew the huge previous drop to 101.5 last week...
no particular price targets, but in an ideal situation it would get down to 95 tomorrow. I don't think that's likely, but it could happen. I suppose my actual target for tomorrow is about 102. |
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Date: May 17th, 2012 1:11 PM Author: Confused Business Firm temporarily completely out of the mays (expiring tomorrow) due to the uptrend over the last hour. considering what to do next. I want to be short in some way going into tomorrow, but it's important to choose the right options. last week when lnkd was at this level I bought a 100/95 spread, but that's obviously failed (or at least it doesn't seem worth holding that at this point when I can still get a decent amount of $$ out).
110/105, 110/100, or 105/100 spread for tomorrow's expiration look like the best options, can't decide which. possibly just unspread 110s or even 105s
alternatively (or in addition), move into next week's options. next week seems like the key week for the big drops to me. I see 95 or below next week. maybe I'll just buy some of next week's 100s. |
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Date: May 17th, 2012 2:35 PM Author: Confused Business Firm if you're following along at home, here's my current position:
105/100 spread expiring tomorrow next week's 100 puts june 95/90 and 95/85 spreads
big net negative delta at the moment, -15k. larger than usual since I think the shit is really happening now/tomorrow/next week. I am prepared to exit if things go the wrong way though. |
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Date: May 17th, 2012 3:59 PM Author: dull passionate patrolman yny (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20712188) |
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Date: May 17th, 2012 4:03 PM Author: Confused Business Firm up $84k today. +$38k on the month now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20712222) |
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Date: May 17th, 2012 4:03 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit explain how the spreads work. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20712221) |
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Date: May 17th, 2012 4:19 PM Author: Confused Business Firm just buying some options and selling some different options. allows me to try to pinpoint a price target better (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20712314) |
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Date: May 18th, 2012 10:39 AM Author: Confused Business Firm lightening positions significantly this morning. hard to say what it's going to do right when fb starts trading. I suppose I'll guess an initial plunge followed by a spike right back to 105 today--that's kind of what it did with the grpn ipo. maybe buy puts before fb trading begins then sell right after. hmm
I still see a nice downward trend next week, but today could go either way from here. |
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Date: May 18th, 2012 11:42 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit good call bro (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20717404) |
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Date: May 18th, 2012 11:59 AM Author: well-lubricated drab dingle berry rigor How much you up now? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20717487) |
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Date: May 18th, 2012 12:30 PM Author: Confused Business Firm really blowing it today despite my predictions. sometimes you just make shitty trades anyway. overtraded--the volatility today kind of got to me, and options pricing has been all over the place. basically went on tilt a bit today. lnkd is down 1 right now and I'm down $3k at the moment.
remind me to try to stick with multi-day trades, really. hold for at least 2 days... |
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Date: May 18th, 2012 2:01 PM Author: bateful cruise ship crotch Sheeeeeeeeeit its dropping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20718008) |
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Date: May 18th, 2012 2:05 PM Author: Confused Business Firm yeah, I'm up 40k today now (really I should be doing better, but I'm happy with this now). just sold some positions when it hit 100. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20718035) |
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Date: May 18th, 2012 2:10 PM Author: Confused Business Firm are you in? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20718064) |
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Date: May 18th, 2012 5:22 PM Author: Confused Business Firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20719283) |
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Date: May 18th, 2012 5:25 PM Author: dull passionate patrolman today change your thinking at all? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20719297) |
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Date: May 18th, 2012 5:26 PM Author: Confused Business Firm no, I see significant slides next week and beyond. hoping for 90 next friday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20719303) |
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Date: May 18th, 2012 5:28 PM Author: dull passionate patrolman yny (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20719310) |
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Date: May 21st, 2012 9:48 AM Author: Confused Business Firm how about that? below 93 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20735515) |
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Date: May 21st, 2012 9:51 AM Author: diverse maroon trailer park mental disorder did you sell your puts or did you just hit the jackpot? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20735518) |
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Date: May 21st, 2012 9:57 AM Author: Confused Business Firm well, I'm up 129k today at the moment (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20735538) |
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Date: May 21st, 2012 10:16 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit cash in. this stock will rally by the end of the day. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20735594) |
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Date: May 21st, 2012 10:22 AM Author: Confused Business Firm it has for the last half-hour, anyway. now I'm only up 72k on the day. after seeing the uptrend, I just cashed out of a large portion of my position a few minutes ago just before it dropped 50 cents unfortunately. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20735619) |
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Date: May 21st, 2012 10:36 AM Author: diverse maroon trailer park mental disorder 180
so you make all your profits on the value of the puts themselves and not on actually utilizing the puts to sell shares at the strike price? |
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Date: May 21st, 2012 10:40 AM Author: Confused Business Firm yeah, I rarely exercise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20735661) |
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Date: May 21st, 2012 10:35 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit what are your VXX positions right now? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20735645) |
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Date: May 21st, 2012 10:39 AM Author: Confused Business Firm holding weekly 21 and 20 puts, partially offset by selling some 19 puts (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20735658) |
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Date: May 22nd, 2012 10:54 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit Is LNKD setting up for another short opportunity? It's trading around 104 now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20743303) |
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Date: May 22nd, 2012 3:48 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Well I'm getting fucked today, but on the bright side I did add to positions at 105 when it looked like it had topped out. Still down $40k today.
Anyway, yes, today was another shorting opportunity. |
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Date: May 22nd, 2012 3:49 PM Author: hairraiser marketing idea windowlicker seriously, how the hell is it trading at 100? it says a P/E of 622? am i reading that shit right? WTF is going on brothers? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20744639) |
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Date: May 24th, 2012 11:53 AM Author: Confused Business Firm it's completely insane, best short in the stock market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20758049) |
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Date: May 24th, 2012 11:53 AM Author: Confused Business Firm Linkedin search volume peaked in January: http://www.google.com/trends/?q=linkedin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20758046) |
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Date: May 24th, 2012 12:03 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit fucklaw, are you familiar with Splunk (SPLK)? this company makes software for sorting and analyzing machine data. it IPO'ed about a month ago and shot up 100% immediately. it's still trading at those levels now after initially drifting down about 20%. at it's current price, the stock is trading around 27x sales even though the company has never posted a profit.
i have read good things about the software but i have to think that this is a good short opportunity based on these outrageous multiples for an unproven company. SPLK will have its first earnings call on 5/31. i'm going to be keeping on eye on this stock. |
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Date: May 24th, 2012 12:05 PM Author: Confused Business Firm don't know a thing about it, so I can't really comment. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20758081) |
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Date: May 31st, 2012 12:14 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Finally a more sustained drop into the low 90s today. It's about time--got kind of fucked last week due to the lack of much drop at all. Still heavily short and doing well this week though. Reduced positions today, especially on this week's options. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20799331) |
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Date: May 31st, 2012 12:16 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit to be fair, you could have shorted just about any stock this week and profited. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20799353) |
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Date: May 31st, 2012 12:22 PM Author: Confused Business Firm this is true. I'm really annoyed that some of my favorite potential shorts have actually dropped more than this while I've focused on this one. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20799403) |
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Date: June 5th, 2012 9:26 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Still heavily short.
Here's what I've done lately:
Lost some the week ending May 25 as LNKD was flat for the week in the upper 90s and I was targeting lower 90s. Tried again the following week (last week) and had a pretty big payoff as LNKD closed the week below 95. Took 100k off the table and have not entered any weekly options this week.
Instead, I've been accumulating November 80/55 bear put spreads.
Overall, I've been extending time scales on my position since I think the immediate downturn may be about over.
However, I'm still holding a large position of June 95/85 and June 95/90 spreads--these expire in under two weeks. Yesterday things were looking great as LNKD dipped below 90, but I didn't reduce my June position. Unfortunately, since then it's come back up above 93. Ideally, I want it below 85 for June expiration.
Will LNKD keep going up due to QE hopes through June expiration, or will it continue back down as it becomes more obvious what a piece of shit the company is? I'm trying to figure out whether to just get out of the June spreads now-ish (at a profit, by the way), or whether to keep holding and see how things are on Friday. |
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Date: June 8th, 2012 1:57 AM Author: Confused Business Firm This piece of shit will be in the 50s or below by November, and I'm placing my bets on that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20847256) |
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Date: June 8th, 2012 3:03 AM Author: 180 amethyst school cafeteria international law enforcement agency My nigga I'm putting $800 box of my hard earned money on your november bet bro. I really hope this works out so I can pay some loans off (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20847517) |
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Date: June 8th, 2012 9:10 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit Nov puts @ $50 strike? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20847835) |
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Date: June 8th, 2012 1:11 PM Author: Confused Business Firm too low. try 70s or 80s (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20848687) |
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Date: June 8th, 2012 1:14 PM Author: up-to-no-good marvelous meetinghouse sex offender you think the mkt will react at all after FOMC Jun 20 meeting? also what's your take on VXX @ 18.5 right now? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20848701) |
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Date: June 8th, 2012 1:18 PM Author: Confused Business Firm vxx is a long-term short, but I'm neutral short-term on it right now
not sure how the market will react really. my best guess right now is disappointment unless something big happens |
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Date: June 14th, 2012 12:16 PM Author: diverse maroon trailer park mental disorder great thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20886418) |
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Date: June 14th, 2012 12:41 PM Author: bateful cruise ship crotch Fucklaw: Couldnt find your SLV thread so I thought I'd post in here. What do you think about getting some SLV calls for a month or two out this Friday for the Greek elections/fed meeting like you suggested. Or even a company called SLW - their tailings agreenments are hedged for a long time at like 3 dollars an ounce and the stock moves more than SLV. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20886565) |
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Date: June 14th, 2012 4:55 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Well, I was long silver recently thinking there would be some QE excitement, but that didn't materialize and I got out. I'm pretty clueless on how to play the Greek elections, but my guess is that the Fed will underwhelm the markets with its action next week.
However, I feel much more uncertain than usual about Fed action this time around. There's a small chance they'll do something big, and a very high chance they'll extend current actions for a couple more months. My guess is that if they don't do something big, markets (and silver) will sell off, but my confidence is low.
I wish markets would stop acting like heroin addicts in need of the next fix (QE), threatening economic collapse if they don't get their way. The banks are holding everyone hostage, and there's no political will to do anything about it. |
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Date: June 18th, 2012 11:09 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit looks like this turd quietly floated up the past couple of weeks. time to flush it down again? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20908830) |
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Date: June 18th, 2012 3:55 PM Author: Confused Business Firm It has indeed. It really looks today like a top to me at 107, but then this whole rise from 91 or so has completely surprised me. My anus is a bit sore from the reaming at this point, but I'm sticking with the idea that this piece of shit will be in the 70s or below by November expiration. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20910119) |
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Date: June 25th, 2012 4:34 AM Author: Confused Business Firm I've finally figured out what's been going on over the last few weeks. Russell index rebalancing resulted in automatic buys of 1.5 to 2 million shares on Friday at the close. Wall Street knew this and has been running up the price prior to the rebalancing. ETFs took the role of suckers, buying after a huge runup caused by frontrunning of the rebalancing.
Looks like those in the know were able to take advantage of ETF investors to the tune of about $20-40M.
It's just like an inverse lockup situation, only instead of massive insider selling happening at lockup expiration, this time it was massive buying by ETFs.
Now that the buying is over, nothing will be holding the price up. I expect imminent plunges.
Furthermore, implied volatility has crashed on this runup, so there's practically never been a better time to buy puts. The only problem is that the culmination of all of this was on Friday, and it's too late to do anything until the open on Monday. Unfortunately for adding to any shorts, the market looks like it'll be opening down big on Monday, probably indicating an implied volatility spike as well. |
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Date: June 25th, 2012 9:41 AM Author: Confused Business Firm Just added to my position with weekly 100 and 97.5 puts. I think my discovery is very significant. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20953701) |
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Date: June 25th, 2012 1:05 PM Author: irradiated corner how did you find out about the Russell rebalancing? is this public knowledge in advance, or did wall st just find out w/ insider info? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20954414) |
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Date: June 25th, 2012 1:08 PM Author: Confused Business Firm saw someone mention on a message board, then searched
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/20/us-stocks-russell-rebalance-idUSBRE85J0J620120620
not commonly known though |
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Date: June 25th, 2012 1:45 PM Author: irradiated corner you have 97.5 puts on the weeklys? would you still buy them now at this point ($103 lnkd) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20954610) |
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Date: June 25th, 2012 1:50 PM Author: Confused Business Firm yeah, I would. be warned though, it's a bit of a long shot. odds certainly aren't great (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20954635) |
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Date: June 25th, 2012 12:02 PM Author: Confused Business Firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20954181) |
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Date: June 25th, 2012 12:48 PM Author: bateful cruise ship crotch Looks interesting. Why not sell some 105 weekly calls - They look expensive as fuck relative to whats going on. Are the earnings in early august confirmed? I think that the July puts at 100 to 95's look good but I'm wary of how expensive the longer term puts on this shit are.
Edit: Nah fuck that call shit time to short this bitch |
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Date: June 25th, 2012 1:06 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Earnings should be early aug. Seems like this drop today has a lot of room to go. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20954420) |
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Date: June 25th, 2012 1:18 PM Author: bateful cruise ship crotch ya I just threw in at 103.5 or so on some weeklies. I recently found a great little company for some longterm if you want to take a look - STRT. It's got book value+cash per share of 32 or so, trading at around 22 about, 1 mil in debt but that's insubstantial relative to their cash reserves. Thinly traded stock, but I think it has good growth on a 3 or so year horizon, they make car locks, power windows, random stuff and have some good export relations with Asia. Their assembly costs in Mexico are also hedged via currency options with a bank and those have been pretty sound from what I've seen. I've been putting more of my money into 1~5 year investments lately as school is starting up for me pretty soon. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20954458) |
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Date: June 25th, 2012 1:24 PM Author: Confused Business Firm interesting, thanks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20954490) |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 3:10 PM Author: bateful cruise ship crotch shit. May have jumped the gun on this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20962219) |
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Date: June 26th, 2012 5:59 PM Author: Confused Business Firm well fuck, this piece of shit just refuses to fall. I got out of my weekly positions today at a loss. I'm pretty amazed at how this just cannot seem to go down more than a day at a time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#20963302) |
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Date: July 2nd, 2012 10:26 AM Author: 180 amethyst school cafeteria international law enforcement agency This happened to me with Netflix and Rimm last year. I jumped-in too early and got gaped. I'm still a lil soar about NFLX.
I would wait until the market turns (20% fall in single day) and then trade down with it. Otherwise this feels like NFLX in 2011. Short interest is going to build up but we're going to get gaped every week until the market decides it's made enough money.
Thoughts about playing volatility? I see short interest building up during earnings |
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Date: July 10th, 2012 5:44 PM Author: Confused Business Firm About freaking time we're getting more of a down week. Too bad I decided to stop playing weeklies after losing multiple times--it kept turning right when I least expected it. Instead I've occasionally been adding to August spreads to play earnings. Mostly I've been getting fucked on those as well, but this week things have finally turned around.
I do think lower than expected August revenues are likely to finally turn this thing around for good. The jobs numbers for april, may, and june have all been bad, and LNKD is intimately tied to the job market.
Current positions:
August 80/90 spread August 85/95 spread August 70 puts (a bit of a long shot that was originally bought as a spread when LNKD was near 90 at the beginning of June. just closed out the short end 55 puts at 10 cents in order to resell closer to earnings) November 80/55 and 70/55 spreads
Still predicting this gets back to the 40s this year. I'll be back up big with this if my August spreads hit and we get down to 80. |
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Date: July 10th, 2012 6:04 PM Author: Gay Frisky Sweet Tailpipe fucklaw,
Can you please recommend investment books/sites? Especially books that deal with the subject of shorting stocks. |
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Date: July 10th, 2012 6:48 PM Author: Confused Business Firm itulip.com for thoughts on bubbles and monetary policy
zerohedge.com for news and overly pessimistic viewpoints |
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Date: July 10th, 2012 7:59 PM Author: Gay Frisky Sweet Tailpipe itulip.com looks like a conspiracy theory website. I took a class on monetary policy and dropped it -- the subject matter is nontrivial. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21057031) |
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Date: July 10th, 2012 6:21 PM Author: Chrome hissy fit counting down the days til you get gaped by the market... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21056331) |
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Date: July 10th, 2012 6:46 PM Author: Confused Business Firm Well you just missed my anus getting pretty sore from the month of June. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21056489) |
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Date: July 14th, 2012 12:37 PM Author: 180 amethyst school cafeteria international law enforcement agency This thing is not going down to 40 this year. No fucking way. This shit isn't going anywhere until the global market turns (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21084765) |
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Date: July 14th, 2012 12:44 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit agreed. fucklaw should get abandon this trade altogether. LNKD may be a piece of shit company over the long haul but it still seems to be on an upward trajectory at the moment. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21084795) |
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Date: July 19th, 2012 3:14 PM Author: 180 amethyst school cafeteria international law enforcement agency My guess is that he is betting on earning, but tech just blew the market today so it's not looking good.
Also the market could give them a small pass if they sorta make it through earnings. Good idea but the market isnt ready |
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Date: July 26th, 2012 4:31 PM Author: Confused Business Firm waiting, waiting, waiting. biding my time on this one. gotta be persistent sometimes. the mistake here is that I didn't wait until things were truly ripe with earnings season. I lost a few times on some weeklies thinking we'd see some quick drops, and every time it went right back up. so, I've been harshly burned, and it turns out I should have entered my August and November positions later, but I think things are happening now
earnings out in one week. still aiming for 80 after earnings
also looks like I made a bit playing FB earnings tonight. entered a long shot long VXX position (put in 3k, if it hits it'll pay out 60k) today for next week as well--expecting fed disappointment. |
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Date: July 26th, 2012 4:47 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit Lockup expiration for FB is on Aug 19. Possible to time it so you can make money on the sell-off and the short squeeze that will follow? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21183541) |
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Date: July 26th, 2012 4:49 PM Author: Confused Business Firm good point, but are you sure that's when lockup will expire? typically most unlock at 6 months. if this is a tiny lockup rather than the bulk of the shares, don't bother except to play a possible squeeze just after. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21183560) |
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Date: July 26th, 2012 4:53 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit not certain. just read that on WSJ.
how did you play the FB earnings? i see that FB beat on revenues. The stock traded up for a little while and then sank like a rock after disclosing that its expenses were up sharply. i think you got ridiculously lucky here. |
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Date: July 26th, 2012 4:56 PM Author: Confused Business Firm bought a 26/27 put spread today in the weeklies. just had to try it after znga
more importantly for FB, the long-term picture is bad.
I just hope lnkd drops enough over the next week though. |
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Date: July 31st, 2012 5:13 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit Tiger Global fund filed a schedule 13 yesterday disclosing its disposition of around 2 million shares of LNKD.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1167483/000091957412004425/d1309207_13d-a.htm |
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Date: August 1st, 2012 10:23 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit fucklaw, how are you playing the earnings announcement tomorrow on this shitstock? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21231131) |
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Date: August 1st, 2012 11:43 AM Author: Confused Business Firm http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21056087 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21231695) |
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Date: August 2nd, 2012 10:53 AM Author: Confused Business Firm today is the big day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21240030) |
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Date: August 2nd, 2012 2:28 PM Author: 180 amethyst school cafeteria international law enforcement agency How much are you going to make if it goes your way? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21241857) |
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Date: August 2nd, 2012 2:29 PM Author: Confused Business Firm it's hard to say, but in the 100s of k. I'll update if it goes down (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21241864) |
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Date: August 2nd, 2012 2:24 PM Author: Confused Business Firm well, I'm nervous. hanging tight (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21241831) |
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Date: August 2nd, 2012 2:27 PM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit damn bro, why don't you just take your profits now? you must be way up already. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21241852) |
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Date: August 2nd, 2012 2:30 PM Author: Confused Business Firm really want to ride this thing down in multiple stages to below 40 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21241867) |
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Date: August 3rd, 2012 5:07 AM Author: 180 amethyst school cafeteria international law enforcement agency Hope you covered my nigga (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21248384) |
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Date: August 8th, 2012 5:58 AM Author: Confused Business Firm Sold all my positions on Friday for substantial losses. definitely demoralized on this one for now--wondering when the suckers will finally figure it out. Timing is everything
Still, this is worth trying again. Although I wasn't expecting them to beat on revenues considering how so many other companies have reported recently, the earnings report really doesn't significantly change the true valuation. They're cooking the books by booking things as both revenues and costs, spending and diluting out of control, projecting a loss next q, and they're already seeing q/q declines in page views.
I'm avoiding LNKD for now. I'm currently focusing on a FB play that I may post about next week instead, but I'll return to LNKD later. |
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Date: August 3rd, 2012 9:35 AM Author: spruce heady orchestra pit What's the P/L on your options at this point, fucklaw? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21248648) |
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Date: August 8th, 2012 5:59 AM Author: Confused Business Firm big losses, brother. out of this for now, but not forever (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#21286515) |
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Date: September 4th, 2013 11:40 PM Author: Cracking Trust Fund Market i work at a hedge fund and we've been long for more than a year now. lol at you morons paying me. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=1936074&forum_id=2#23994939) |
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