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Lab rats pick stocks, beat hedge funds

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/09/hed...
Floppy chocolate kitchen
  09/23/14
What's the rat fund fee structure?
maize geriatric stage dragon
  09/23/14
180
Big ungodly station
  09/23/14
180
Mustard range
  09/23/14
A billion
Bat-shit-crazy Faggotry Home
  09/23/14
Cartoon world
shimmering histrionic alpha property
  09/23/14
...
Apoplectic boistinker
  09/23/14
How is this cartoon world? Everyone knows random beats dir...
Frozen Incel Generalized Bond
  09/23/14
lol @ the jew casino.
Curious Mood
  09/23/14
did you just coin this phrase?
sepia step-uncle's house rigpig
  09/23/14
...
khaki dilemma
  09/23/14
biglaw mice getting styled on hard
Mustard range
  09/23/14
...
claret rambunctious tanning salon useless brakes
  09/23/14
...
Buff Stock Car
  09/23/14
mice: "but we did everything right!"
Kink-friendly aphrodisiac locus
  09/23/14
...
sooty menage macaca
  09/23/14
Shit man I need to cop some rats
garnet arousing pit headpube
  09/23/14
(jew banker recruiting at HYP
claret rambunctious tanning salon useless brakes
  09/23/14
the genetic twist just puts it over the top.
Big ungodly station
  09/23/14
I would love to write the PPM for that fund. Risk Disclo...
spectacular spot ceo
  09/23/14
haha, a buddy and I were discussing this and the first thing...
hateful crotch gas station
  09/23/14
this actually seems reasonable. they are basically training ...
know-it-all fragrant public bath
  09/23/14
omg i dont even know if this is fucklaw or fucklaw parody...
claret rambunctious tanning salon useless brakes
  09/23/14
not fucklaw. there is a large literature about various ne...
know-it-all fragrant public bath
  09/23/14
the only reason it's not a random pick is because it's Pavlo...
Big ungodly station
  09/23/14
many machine learning algorithms will look pavlovian
Mustard range
  09/23/14
what does the fact it's Pavlovian have to do with anything?
know-it-all fragrant public bath
  09/23/14
the pumo bro is right though
smoky mind-boggling coldplay fan
  09/23/14
wtf
Big ungodly station
  09/23/14
but rats can't get you the sweet insider deals, e.g. hft. th...
jade territorial site
  09/23/14
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-06/hedge-funds-trail-s...
know-it-all fragrant public bath
  09/23/14
what about those studies (like the one that compares univers...
jade territorial site
  09/23/14
“outperformed *some* of the world’s leading human fund manag...
jade territorial site
  09/23/14
It's antisemitic bro
Buff Stock Car
  09/23/14
Wait are you implying that Jews are rats?
Apoplectic boistinker
  09/23/14
http://www.rattraders.com/ 180 site "We are conti...
cerebral black woman trust fund
  09/23/14
180
Floppy chocolate kitchen
  09/23/14
The idea that it's all random is appealing but this isn't re...
At-the-ready antidepressant drug space
  09/23/14
Wasn't George Costanzas fake charity The Human Fund?
Cyan school windowlicker
  09/23/14
wow, very zeke morrisian
glittery slap-happy lay gay wizard
  09/23/14
omg yes
clear harsh laser beams locale
  09/23/14
...
Floppy chocolate kitchen
  09/23/14


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 7:48 AM
Author: Floppy chocolate kitchen

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/09/hedge-fund-rats.html

One project is Michael Marcovici’s Rat Trader. The book describes the training of laboratory rats to trade in foreign exchange and commodity futures markets. Marcovici says the rats “outperformed some of the world’s leading human fund managers.” The rats were trained to press a red or green button to give buy or sell signals, after listening to ticker tape movements represented as sounds. If they called the market right they were fed, if they called it wrong they got a small electric shock. Male and female rats performed equally well. The second generation of rattraders, cross-bred from the best performers in the first generation, appeared to have even better performance, although this is a preliminary result, according to the text. Marcovici’s plan, he writes, is to breed enough of them to set up a hedge fund.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380387)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:10 PM
Author: maize geriatric stage dragon

What's the rat fund fee structure?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26383972)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 7:49 AM
Author: Big ungodly station

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380390)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 7:55 AM
Author: Mustard range

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380394)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 7:56 AM
Author: Bat-shit-crazy Faggotry Home

A billion

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380395)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:03 AM
Author: shimmering histrionic alpha property

Cartoon world

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380402)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:18 PM
Author: Apoplectic boistinker



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26384025)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 9:43 PM
Author: Frozen Incel Generalized Bond

How is this cartoon world? Everyone knows random beats directed picks

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26384495)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:03 AM
Author: Curious Mood

lol @ the jew casino.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380405)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 11:12 AM
Author: sepia step-uncle's house rigpig

did you just coin this phrase?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380968)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:27 PM
Author: khaki dilemma



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26384066)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:10 AM
Author: Mustard range

biglaw mice getting styled on hard

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380408)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:17 AM
Author: claret rambunctious tanning salon useless brakes



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380418)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:50 AM
Author: Buff Stock Car



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380462)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:52 AM
Author: Kink-friendly aphrodisiac locus

mice: "but we did everything right!"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380465)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:16 AM
Author: sooty menage macaca



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380417)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:19 AM
Author: garnet arousing pit headpube

Shit man I need to cop some rats

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380422)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:22 AM
Author: claret rambunctious tanning salon useless brakes

(jew banker recruiting at HYP

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380424)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:24 AM
Author: Big ungodly station

the genetic twist just puts it over the top.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380426)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:27 AM
Author: spectacular spot ceo

I would love to write the PPM for that fund.

Risk Disclosure

The trading system is dependent on rodents and their ability to hear and react to ticks. It is possible that a rodent may misinterprete the tick. There is also a possibility that the rodents will eat each other as a result of continously guessing wrong. Further, there is a risk that PETA will try to rescue the rodents or unionize them. This may result in substantial loss of profit s or actual loss to the fund.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380432)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 11:15 AM
Author: hateful crotch gas station

haha, a buddy and I were discussing this and the first thing we went to was PETA and unionization risks. Risk of accidental release of rat poison was also discussed.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380979)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:32 AM
Author: know-it-all fragrant public bath

this actually seems reasonable. they are basically training a complex neural network on market data, which we know can represent highly complex, non-linear functions. there is also evidence that "dumber" animals are better able to reason under uncertainty (suggesting that certain cognitive abilities have been lost in our evolution), so it wouldn't surprise me if a relatively small-brained animal was better than us at time series prediction.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380441)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:33 AM
Author: claret rambunctious tanning salon useless brakes

omg

i dont even know if this is fucklaw or fucklaw parody

amazing either way

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380442)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:36 AM
Author: know-it-all fragrant public bath

not fucklaw.

there is a large literature about various neural network architectures being used for market prediction on price data. what is so surprising about a biological version being used for the same purpose?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380447)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:38 AM
Author: Big ungodly station

the only reason it's not a random pick is because it's Pavlovian. your poli sci shithead theories about neural nets and all that stuff are not even applicable.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380450)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:41 AM
Author: Mustard range

many machine learning algorithms will look pavlovian

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380452)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:48 AM
Author: know-it-all fragrant public bath

what does the fact it's Pavlovian have to do with anything?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380460)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:11 PM
Author: smoky mind-boggling coldplay fan

the pumo bro is right though

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26383977)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:35 AM
Author: Big ungodly station

wtf

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380446)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:48 AM
Author: jade territorial site

but rats can't get you the sweet insider deals, e.g. hft. the rich still do way better in hedge funds than the average joe in vanguard, schwab, right?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380461)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:52 AM
Author: know-it-all fragrant public bath

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-06/hedge-funds-trail-stocks-by-the-widest-margin-since-2005.html

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380464)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 9:01 AM
Author: jade territorial site

what about those studies (like the one that compares university endowments) that show the roi on large portfolios is much better than that on small ones?

do you think these wily hedge funds could be hiding earnings to lower taxes?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380474)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 9:07 AM
Author: jade territorial site

“outperformed *some* of the world’s leading human fund managers."

it can't be that obvious, right?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380479)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 9:08 AM
Author: Buff Stock Car

It's antisemitic bro

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380481)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:21 PM
Author: Apoplectic boistinker

Wait are you implying that Jews are rats?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26384039)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 9:12 AM
Author: cerebral black woman trust fund

http://www.rattraders.com/

180 site

"We are continuously crossing the best trading rats with each other in order to breed specialists in various markets for our clients. The second generation of top traders ususally shows a much better performance compared to their parents."

"The decision was correct, Lehman gets a bonus after shorting the USD."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380485)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 10:18 AM
Author: Floppy chocolate kitchen

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380737)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 10:48 AM
Author: At-the-ready antidepressant drug space

The idea that it's all random is appealing but this isn't really convincing. Of course "some" managers will underperform random during certain periods of time, especially short-term.

There's also a self-reinforcing effect to stock pickers -- the fact that so many people are analyzing and picking stocks makes it hard to outperform the market precisely because the effect of all those pickers is efficiency. If you had a market without much analysis/stock-picking, skilled stock pickers would be more effective.

Hedge Funds are largely flame, but that's as much because of their fee structure as their skill, i.e. any alpha they have is going to be cancelled out or more by their expense.

One other point -- this just says "human fund managers" -- that could also be mutual funds.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380872)



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Date: September 23rd, 2014 11:27 AM
Author: Cyan school windowlicker

Wasn't George Costanzas fake charity The Human Fund?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26381031)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 10:50 AM
Author: glittery slap-happy lay gay wizard

wow, very zeke morrisian

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26380881)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:25 PM
Author: clear harsh laser beams locale

omg yes

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26384061)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 23rd, 2014 8:08 PM
Author: Floppy chocolate kitchen



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2681998&forum_id=2#26383960)